Post-Game Talk: Jets 6 - Rangers 3

[Daximus]

We'll get a bottom pairing/press box D-man for injury insurance at least for sure - That's a patented Chevy move (Joe Morrow, my beloved)

I wouldn't hate getting started on that work now, and aiming for a starter-quality Names-style player/move instead of a 7/8 guy.

It's clear we'll be in the mix even if we fall back to earth, so why not up the timeline instead of waiting until the deadline?

I think there may be some merit to waiting a bit more, though I'm sure Chevy is kicking tires here and there. We can ensure whoever we get is healthy closer to the deadline and gets more games in with their team before we staple them to the press box.

 

[Daximus]

Cap space and opportunity. Not too many players available this early. I could see Malkin, Rakell and Letang changing jerseys mid season though, as KD rolls up the tank first. Montreal has some tank vibes going to, as they are stuck in a rebuild that isn't building anything but prospects.

Right now the Jets are alternating injuries for roster space. I don't know what Dylan Coghlan is doing to stay in the lineup, I'm guessing he's a well liked player, maybe someone who skated with Josh this offseason and got a job.

Gustafsson has been in the role of #13 before. He's obviously very professional about it.

Heinola we'll have to see where or how he gets in the lineup.

Top need to me would be a defenseman that allowed the Jets to play 3 pairings strong consistently. Buffer some minutes.

Then it's depth and depth is often an injury related issue, so let's stay healthy for as long as possible.

I think a defensive upgrade is definitely something we want but I'm not in any hurry to fix something that is working this well. Heinola needs to get a good look before we commit to making any moves as our upgrade could already be in house. He just needs to get a fair shake to see what he can actually do.

 

[10Ducky10]

The powerplay is 100% better thanks to ehlers so you werent wrong

Perfetti could replace him and the PP1 wouldn't miss a beat.

 

[Jets 31]

I think there may be some merit to waiting a bit more, though I'm sure Chevy is kicking tires here and there. We can ensure whoever we get is healthy closer to the deadline and gets more games in with their team before we staple them to the press box.

You know with the Jets playing unreal and as a team i don't think i do anything unless we have a injury. Plus i get so sick of hearing this player has Winnipeg on their no trade list that maybe those players can just sit and watch the Jets destroy whatever team they are on .

 

[voyageur]

I think a defensive upgrade is definitely something we want but I'm not in any hurry to fix something that is working this well. Heinola needs to get a good look before we commit to making any moves as our upgrade could already be in house. He just needs to get a fair shake to see what he can actually do.

I still want to see how he gets used. So far Stanley and Fleury have carried the PK2 role. I'm not sure the Jets want to put Morrissey as a regular on the PK when they are gunning, so does that role go to Heinola, or maybe Miller on his offside?

I think he could be the kind of player who could throw off the prescout by getting into the lineup on the PP. 5 on 5 Miller gets more offensive zone time than defensive, so there's a chance that Heinola could produce offense behind the Ehlers line. But I wonder if he is a home start guy, protected matchups. Arniel and Chynoweth will get to see what he can do in practice, and I think when they feel he's up to speed he'll get a look. Still a long way from being the kind of player a coach is confident in going into a playoff battle. The #6 defenseman is the only spot that seems to be in contention.. So far the only alteration of this lineup has been the Stanley/Fleury battle. Kupari has taken the 4C role after getting one game off.

 

[raideralex99]

You know with the Jets playing unreal and as a team i don't think i do anything unless we have a injury. Plus i get so sick of hearing this player has Winnipeg on their no trade list that maybe those players can just sit and watch the Jets destroy whatever team they are on .

I heard some players are changing their contracts now ... they are taking Winnipeg off their no trade list and adding them as first choice as destination.

 

[chris kontos]

We'll get a bottom pairing/press box D-man for injury insurance at least for sure - That's a patented Chevy move (Joe Morrow, my beloved)

I wouldn't hate getting started on that work now, and aiming for a starter-quality Names-style player/move instead of a 7/8 guy.

It's clear we'll be in the mix even if we fall back to earth, so why not up the timeline instead of waiting until the deadline?

Chevy should talk to rob blake about doughty- probly could get him for demelo. Blake would probably retain salary and throw in a first

 

[Daximus]

I still want to see how he gets used. So far Stanley and Fleury have carried the PK2 role. I'm not sure the Jets want to put Morrissey as a regular on the PK when they are gunning, so does that role go to Heinola, or maybe Miller on his offside?

I think he could be the kind of player who could throw off the prescout by getting into the lineup on the PP. 5 on 5 Miller gets more offensive zone time than defensive, so there's a chance that Heinola could produce offense behind the Ehlers line. But I wonder if he is a home start guy, protected matchups. Arniel and Chynoweth will get to see what he can do in practice, and I think when they feel he's up to speed he'll get a look. Still a long way from being the kind of player a coach is confident in going into a playoff battle. The #6 defenseman is the only spot that seems to be in contention.. So far the only alteration of this lineup has been the Stanley/Fleury battle. Kupari has taken the 4C role after getting one game off.

Yeah we need to get him healthy and up to game speed. Throw him in during a string of home games and at least see what he's made of. I think his role is pretty evident it's just about whether he can do it at this level.

Chevy should talk to rob blake about doughty- probly could get him for demelo. Blake would probably retain salary and throw in a first

Doughty is the kind of home run swing I think you maybe take if the team comes back down to earth come the deadline.

Doughty is a vet and an established leader and I'm not sure if you want to put a voice that big into a room that seems to finally be geling together unless you absolutely need to. Could throw the entire thing off the rails. He also has a 7 team NTC of which I'm fairly sure every Canadian team is likely on it.

 

[Jet]

Doughty is the kind of home run swing I think you maybe take if the team comes back down to earth come the deadline.

Doughty is a vet and an established leader and I'm not sure if you want to put a voice that big into a room that seems to finally be geling together unless you absolutely need to. Could throw the entire thing off the rails. He also has a 7 team NTC of which I'm fairly sure every Canadian team is likely on it.

Yeah I wouldn't be considering a deal like that at all if the team stays a wagon.

That could really upset the balance or piss the players off

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

If you enjoy watching the Spittin' Chicklets guys eat crow... check this out.

Around the 29 minute'ish mark.
It's from before the Rangers game but fun still the same.

 

[voyageur]

Yeah we need to get him healthy and up to game speed. Throw him in during a string of home games and at least see what he's made of. I think his role is pretty evident it's just about whether he can do it at this level.



Doughty is the kind of home run swing I think you maybe take if the team comes back down to earth come the deadline.

Doughty is a vet and an established leader and I'm not sure if you want to put a voice that big into a room that seems to finally be geling together unless you absolutely need to. Could throw the entire thing off the rails. He also has a 7 team NTC of which I'm fairly sure every Canadian team is likely on it.

Kings are competing for the lead in their division. I think they might be trying to bring in elements to win. Doughty and Kopitar are likely Kings for life now.

My first choice of d-men would still be Maatta, because of cost, lack of NTC, and you bring a player into the room, he would have experience with Iafallo and young Vilardi, Kupari and JAD from his Kings experience. Can play either side and PKs.

I don't know if he is available but Scott Laughton would be the kind of player I would like to add if the Jets want to be a 4 line scoring team come playoffs.

 

[Gm0ney]

Yet CSV is hardly dominating their 5v5 matchups in terms of GF% and xGF%, despite all of what you're saying being true (although you're correct in saying that they are improved

Of all your examples, I think that Tarasenko - O'Reilly are the closest comparable to Schief - Connor that I see, with the * being that O'Reilly was an amazing 2 way centre that Schief can't quite compare too. That said, they'd isn't have a F who was over a point per game that season

That team also had Bennington go on a once-in-a-lifetime tear that 2nd half/playoffs and a solid d corps including peiterangelo, parayko (before he fell off) and Bowmeester

Our team this year, on paper, is much more talented AND deep than that team, which should give us hope that it can win as it's constructed despite the fact that we don't have that dominating top line that other cup winners have had

I know you were replying to Whileee in the first paragraph, but CSV were getting dominated in the first 9 games, and they've suddenly been the ones dominating over the past 7 games. That's in actual goals and xGF%. 9-1 GF-GA isn't sustainable but hopefully something better than 11-10 is (5:3 is definitely in reach if they can continue to win the shot metrics).

Tarasenko-O'Reilly dominated their matchups at 5v5 that season. 40-24 with a 56% xGF.

But yeah, a lot of stuff had to go right for that Blues team. A lot is going right for the Jets now. They're a good team with something to prove.

 

[WolfHouse]

Kings are competing for the lead in their division. I think they might be trying to bring in elements to win. Doughty and Kopitar are likely Kings for life now.

My first choice of d-men would still be Maatta, because of cost, lack of NTC, and you bring a player into the room, he would have experience with Iafallo and young Vilardi, Kupari and JAD from his Kings experience. Can play either side and PKs.

I don't know if he is available but Scott Laughton would be the kind of player I would like to add if the Jets want to be a 4 line scoring team come playoffs.

Maata and laughton are massive downgrades

 

[voyageur]

Yet CSV is hardly dominating their 5v5 matchups in terms of GF% and xGF%, despite all of what you're saying being true (although you're correct in saying that they are improved

Of all your examples, I think that Tarasenko - O'Reilly are the closest comparable to Schief - Connor that I see, with the * being that O'Reilly was an amazing 2 way centre that Schief can't quite compare too. That said, they'd isn't have a F who was over a point per game that season

That team also had Bennington go on a once-in-a-lifetime tear that 2nd half/playoffs and a solid d corps including peiterangelo, parayko (before he fell off) and Bowmeester

Our team this year, on paper, is much more talented AND deep than that team, which should give us hope that it can win as it's constructed despite the fact that we don't have that dominating top line that other cup winners have had

I wonder if you or any media type asked Scott Arniel where xGoals ranked in his analytic assessment of the team what the answer would be? Just watching the team play zone possession is more important than shots. And Arniel frequently references zone times. KC is up to +11 on the year, so aside from the PP, he's getting on the scoreboard, whether it be 3-3, 4-3, 6-5, or in the middle of a line change.

Last night Scheif had the Rangers best against him. He scored a goal getting in behind Fox, and another getting behind Trouba. That's $17.5 million in defense that had their troubles against him.

 

[Whileee]

Cap space and opportunity. Not too many players available this early. I could see Malkin, Rakell and Letang changing jerseys mid season though, as KD rolls up the tank first. Montreal has some tank vibes going to, as they are stuck in a rebuild that isn't building anything but prospects.

Right now the Jets are alternating injuries for roster space. I don't know what Dylan Coghlan is doing to stay in the lineup, I'm guessing he's a well liked player, maybe someone who skated with Josh this offseason and got a job.

Gustafsson has been in the role of #13 before. He's obviously very professional about it.

Heinola we'll have to see where or how he gets in the lineup.

Top need to me would be a defenseman that allowed the Jets to play 3 pairings strong consistently. Buffer some minutes.

Then it's depth and depth is often an injury related issue, so let's stay healthy for as long as possible.

Oleksiak would be a nice replacement at 3LD.

Run:

Morrissey-DeMelo
Samberg-Pionk
Oleksiak-Miller

Next season Salomonsson could slide into a 2nd or 3rd pair RD (especially if Pionk isn't retained), or maybe move Miller via trade.

 

[voyageur]

Maata and laughton are massive downgrades

From Stanley and Barron, are you sure?

 

[voyageur]

Oleksiak would be a nice replacement at 3LD.

Run:

Morrissey-DeMelo
Samberg-Pionk
Oleksiak-Miller

Next season Salomonsson could slide into a 2nd or 3rd pair RD (especially if Pionk isn't retained), or maybe move Miller via trade.

I have to come to view every player with a NTC as a no go, but that would be a nice add I agree.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Him and Pionk are rounding into a real legit second pair. Great balance.

I'm really starting to warm up to Pionk.

At least to contract year Pionk. Its getting to the point where I hesitate to bring that up. But that's the whole point about contract year performers, isn't it.

He is one player I wouldn't mind riding as an own rental. Win a Cup with him and then let some other team pay him for it.

 

[Inanna]

I've seen (and even read some) articles which do a simple analysis of when penalties are called and what the score was at the time of the penalty.

The bias is real. The majority of penalties are called against the team which is leading at the time. It becomes even more pronounced in the third period. And if you're leading by one goal in the last 10 minutes of a game, your odds of getting a penalty are greatly increased.

The bias has been around for a long time. "An Introduction to Statistical Learning" (James, Witten, Hastie, Tibshirani) was published in 2013 and discusses referee bias from twenty to thirty years ago.

If you're academically inclined (which lawyers used to be until the AG appointment), check out the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 10(2), June, 2014, which includes:

Reversal of Fortune: A Statistical Analysis of Penalty Calls in the National Hockey League​

This paper analyzes a unique data set consisting of all penalty calls in the National Hockey League between the 1995-1996 and 2001-2002 seasons. The primary finding is the prevalence of "reverse calls:" if previous penalties have been on one team, then the next penalty is more likely to be on the other. This pattern is consistent with a simple behavioral rationale based on the fundamental difficulty of refereeing a National Hockey League game. Statistical modeling reveals that the identity of the next team to be penalized also depends on a variety of other factors, including the score, the time in the game, the time since last penalty, which team is at home, and whether one or two referees are calling the game. There is also evidence of differences among referees in their tendency to reverse calls.


Too bad dinner can't be whipped together with a few cut and paste skills, too.

 

[heretik27]

The funny thing about penalties and how they're called is that generally, the more penalties you take, the more you draw. The Jets are the 29th most penalized team and have drawn the 24th most penalties. Their Net Penalties/60 is currently 0.62, which is the 6th best rate in the league.

You have to go back to 2017-18 to find a season where the Jets had a negative penalty differential. They were -0.01 Net Pen/60 that year.

From 2018-19 to present, the Jets are the 2nd best team in Net Pen/60.

But because of game management, it's rare for a team to rack up a huge negative or positive penalty differential. The refs are always trying to keep it relatively close. Only 3 times since the Jets return has any team had a worse penalty differential than -1, and no team has ever hit +1 (since 2011-12 anyway).

Sir, I don't want your logical reasoning I want to be mad.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I mean I wanted to even when they lost to the Avalanche.

Did I say that out loud?


I was gonna say. Aren't we supposed to split up 55 and 81 because charts and graphs?

No. We were supposed to break them up because they played poorly together. Charts and graphs were not the reason. They simply proved the point. Current charts and graphs show that things have changed. All it took was a moderate improvement in Scheif's defensive play and a big one in Connor's.

We no longer need to break them up, or trade Appleton, or fire Stanley into the Sun. We are no longer desperate for a 2C or a 1/2RHD.

 

[GNP]

The powerplay is 100% better thanks to ehlers so you werent wrong

It's very important to leave Ehlers on powerplay # 1. He's the new addition this year, and we have the best powerplay in the league. I still say, with proper ice time, and #1 PP time, this guy is an 80 point scorer all day long. I'm happy Arneil is utilizing him properly. He is the "difference." this year. Also in the top 20 scorers in the NHL right now.

 

[Whileee]

I wonder if you or any media type asked Scott Arniel where xGoals ranked in his analytic assessment of the team what the answer would be? Just watching the team play zone possession is more important than shots. And Arniel frequently references zone times. KC is up to +11 on the year, so aside from the PP, he's getting on the scoreboard, whether it be 3-3, 4-3, 6-5, or in the middle of a line change.

Last night Scheif had the Rangers best against him. He scored a goal getting in behind Fox, and another getting behind Trouba. That's $17.5 million in defense that had their troubles against him.

I think it's fair to be skeptical of xG and other simpler shot metrics (Corsi and Fenwick), because teams have a number of other more refined metrics. But I also think that the struggles that Connor-Scheifele have had in the past defensively have been real, even if you just base it on an "eye test". They have a history of getting hemmed in their zone for long shifts, giving up chances and goals, etc. I think they have been much better this season at efficient zone exits, and have much fewer turnovers between their blue line and the red line. It's reflected in the goal metrics improving, especially for Connor this season.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I think it's fair to be skeptical of xG and other simpler shot metrics (Corsi and Fenwick), because teams have a number of other more refined metrics. But I also think that the struggles that Connor-Scheifele have had in the past defensively have been real, even if you just base it on an "eye test". They have a history of getting hemmed in their zone for long shifts, giving up chances and goals, etc. I think they have been much better this season at efficient zone exits, and have much fewer turnovers between their blue line and the red line. It's reflected in the goal metrics improving, especially for Connor this season.

no questioning kc is the most improved jet.

 

[heretik27]

Not sure if I buy that 1st point. Think Helly, mo, Connor possibly schief

no questioning kc is the most improved jet.

Perfetti is my pick. Connor improved his defensive efforts, but was always dangerous offensively. Perfetti was still pretty raw last season and has really started to come into his own in all 3 zones and he looks like he's gotten used to the physicality and speed of the NHL game. There's no chance he'd be a playoff scratch this year the way he's playing.