Post-Game Talk: Jets 6 - Bruins 2

[Do or Die]

Looking more closely at Boston........very....slow.....team.
Passing on KC THREE TIMES, in the draft....is curse worthy.

 

[gojetsgo]

 

[Gm0ney]

That "piss poor analysis" is directly related to our poor PO performance the last 2 years. We finished 4th last year and are currently 1st in regular season play. Jets are a very good team in spite of those 2 small size samples. Of course some people will say the samples are only small because we are bad, but Come on. Look at the record.

Here's my piss-poor analysis.

1) The Hot Start: 15-1-0. The hot start was difficult to evaluate. The 5v5 numbers weren't great. The powerplay was unreal - converting at 42% during the streak, especially coming after last year's 19%. The goaltending was also unreal: .928 in all situations. In this economy?

Analysis: A few unsustainability red flags were apparent, but there was a lot of crazy stuff happening. I mean, I don't think anyone was expecting a 76-6-0 - although that was still on the table before the game on December 1!

2) The Slump: 6-8-1. The slump ran from mid-November to mid-December. Sure, you could argue that some of it was schedule related, but some regression chickens came home to roost at the exact same time. The powerplay dropped to a Lauerian 19%. Goaltending was an un-Hellebuyckian .899. The meh 5v5 numbers got worse.

Analysis: Tough schedule but some expected regression too. The real Jets are somewhere in between the two extremes. The only question was which end of the spectrum they're closer to...

3) Post-Slump: 15-5-2. In the month and a half since the slump, all-strength goaltending is back up to a .916 (3rd best in the NHL since mid-December), the powerplay is back up to 38.5% (!). 5v5 numbers are back up (xGF% is WAY up into elite territory).

Analysis: Goaltending is elite and it seems reasonable that it can continue, considering Hellebuyck. The 5v5 numbers are encouraging (and a big reason why a lot of power ranking models increasingly like the Jets). I'd say the powerplay is highly unlikely to continue converting over 30%, but regardless, it's still a pretty good powerplay. PK is the Jets weakest link...the results are meh, and the metrics/analytics are mostly bottom 10 - but the good news is that the Jets don't take many penalties, so that reduces the impact.

It's Charles Dickens' A Tale of Three Seasons (SH% and SV% are all-strengths):

	CF-CA/60	CF%	GF-GA/60	GF%	xGF-xGA/60	xGF%	PP%	PK%	SH%	SV%
Hot start	58-60	49% (20)	2.9-1.9	60% (3)	2.5-2.6	49% (22)	42.2% (1)	81.6% (12)	14.5% (1)	.928 (1)
Slump	55-58	49% (23)	2.0-1.9	51% (15)	2.2-2.6	46.5% (26)	18.8% (18)	73.8% (25)	10.2% (18)	.898 (13)
Since	58-57	50% (16)	2.7-1.5	64% (1)	2.6-2.0	56% (5)	38.5% (1)	80.7% (14)	12.8% (1)	.916 (3)

 

[ps241]

Looking more closely at Boston........very....slow.....team.
Passing on KC THREE TIMES, in the draft....is curse worthy.

Boston has been a model franchise for decades and yea they beat themselves up (well they beat up Sweeney) on that draft even in the good times. They have also hit on some picks like McAvoy (14th OA) and Pastrnak (25th OA) that were franchise altering talents. However ,there is no getting around how disastrous this look is:

13th Boston Zabroil
14th Boston DeBrusk
15th Boston Senyshyn
16th Islanders Barzal
17th Jets Connor
18th Ottawa Chabot

 

[Adam da bomb]

Here's my piss-poor analysis.

1) The Hot Start: 15-1-0. The hot start was difficult to evaluate. The 5v5 numbers weren't great. The powerplay was unreal - converting at 42% during the streak, especially coming after last year's 19%. The goaltending was also unreal: .928 in all situations. In this economy?

Analysis: A few unsustainability red flags were apparent, but there was a lot of crazy stuff happening. I mean, I don't think anyone was expecting a 76-6-0 - although that was still on the table before the game on December 1!

2) The Slump: 6-8-1. The slump ran from mid-November to mid-December. Sure, you could argue that some of it was schedule related, but some regression chickens came home to roost at the exact same time. The powerplay dropped to a Lauerian 19%. Goaltending was an un-Hellebuyckian .899. The meh 5v5 numbers got worse.

Analysis: Tough schedule but some expected regression too. The real Jets are somewhere in between the two extremes. The only question was which end of the spectrum they're closer to...

3) Post-Slump: 15-5-2. In the month and a half since the slump, all-strength goaltending is back up to a .916 (3rd best in the NHL since mid-December), the powerplay is back up to 38.5% (!). 5v5 numbers are back up (xGF% is WAY up into elite territory).

Analysis: Goaltending is elite and it seems reasonable that it can continue, considering Hellebuyck. The 5v5 numbers are encouraging (and a big reason why a lot of power ranking models increasingly like the Jets). I'd say the powerplay is highly unlikely to continue converting over 30%, but regardless, it's still a pretty good powerplay. PK is the Jets weakest link...the results are meh, and the metrics/analytics are mostly bottom 10 - but the good news is that the Jets don't take many penalties, so that reduces the impact.

It's Charles Dickens' A Tale of Three Seasons (SH% and SV% are all-strengths):

	CF-CA/60	CF%	GF-GA/60	GF%	xGF-xGA/60	xGF%	PP%	PK%	SH%	SV%
Hot start	58-60	49% (20)	2.9-1.9	60% (3)	2.5-2.6	49% (22)	42.2% (1)	81.6% (12)	14.5% (1)	.928 (1)
Slump	55-58	49% (23)	2.0-1.9	51% (15)	2.2-2.6	46.5% (26)	18.8% (18)	73.8% (25)	10.2% (18)	.898 (13)
Since	58-57	50% (16)	2.7-1.5	64% (1)	2.6-2.0	56% (5)	38.5% (1)	80.7% (14)	12.8% (1)	.916 (3)

I wonder then if they make their biggest priority to bring in a pk defenseman who they can replace stanley with as they don't like the 3 as much in role so they will need to bring in someone from outside.

 

[Jetland162702]

Damn! Had the right score with just 37 seconds left.

Solid road game. Great to see Ford score in his first game. Missing Lowry and Barron, Jets keep rolling.

I know right. Same for me. Who the hell pulls their goalie down 3 goals. Just wanted to screw us up.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I wonder what kind of shot they qualify KC's goal as. A hack shot?

 

[johnnyonthspot]

Really good game.

Bruins had chance to trade for Scheifele a year and half ago but they didn't want him oop. Too bad 55 was not out on the PK to get the EN hattrick. The Jets contrary to their usual pattern on a bit of roll in Jan going into the ASB... here's to hoping that nonsense 4 nations tournament doesn't hurt the momentum.

Seriously of all years to have a silly tourney ! It is like when the Expos looked like a lock to win the world series then there was a strike!
I just hope all Jets return from it and their all inclusive vacays( well earned) healthy and ready to roll into the playoffs

 

[Royale With Cheese]

Boston has been a model franchise for decades and yea they beat themselves up (well they beat up Sweeney) on that draft even in the good times. They have also hit on some picks like McAvoy (14th OA) and Pastrnak (25th OA) that were franchise altering talents. However ,there is no getting around how disastrous this look is:

13th Boston Zabroil
14th Boston DeBrusk
15th Boston Senyshyn
16th Islanders Barzal
17th Jets Connor
18th Ottawa Chabot

Some of the chronically good teams like Boston - and it feels like they've been first class for decades - don't make too many mistakes. This draft is clearly one of them. Losing Bergeron and Chara to retirement the last few years didn't help either.

They looked lost out there last night. Don't watch them enough to know what's up, but all empires must fall eventually.

 

[Gm0ney]

Really ass kicking tough guy that was a lefty.

As a fellow southpaw, I can say that right-handed people just aren't ready for left-handed haymakers coming at them...

 

[wpgallday1960]

Looking more closely at Boston........very....slow.....team.
Passing on KC THREE TIMES, in the draft....is curse worthy.

Not to mention Barzal & Chabot. Haunts that team to this day and beyond.

 

[Buffdog]

I wonder then if they make their biggest priority to bring in a pk defenseman who they can replace stanley with as they don't like the 3 as much in role so they will need to bring in someone from outside.

I think at one point earlier in the year, the Jets were linked to Marcus Pettersson in PIT?

I admit I haven't watched him much, but if he's just a steady, boring, low event guy, then I'm OK with that

 

[Royale With Cheese]

I wonder what kind of shot they qualify KC's goal as. A hack shot?

TSN listed it as a wrist shot which it definitely wasn't.

 

[gojetsgo]

I think at one point earlier in the year, the Jets were linked to Marcus Pettersson in PIT?

I admit I haven't watched him much, but if he's just a steady, boring, low event guy, then I'm OK with that

seravalli said jets could use him yesterday because they haven't been great defensively recently

 

[10Ducky10]

I think at one point earlier in the year, the Jets were linked to Marcus Pettersson in PIT?

I admit I haven't watched him much, but if he's just a steady, boring, low event guy, then I'm OK with that

He's a very reliable D man that will give you 22 minutes a night of near mistake-free play. I wouldn't go higher than a 2nd though. A 3rd and a 5th sounds about right.

 

[Jetsfan79]

So are we past the piss poor analysis that we are actually a bad team? No one who actually knows hockey would consider the Jets a bad or even a fringe team. We are a true on contender so lets get comfortable with that.

Jets need to make some noise in the playoffs before they shake that reputation. Otherwise Jets are considered pretenders by many. Fair or not, thats the reality.

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

Fabulous result.
I really got a lot of enjoyment out of Ford's big moment.
After our unmatched start to the season I felt like it would take at least one more big winning streak (5+) to stay in contention for top of the league and lookee what we have going on here!!!!

I know the Caps melt down in 2013 to knock us out of the playoffs has essentially nothing to do with our current team.
But it would be nice to humiliate them for us fans who still remember that disaster.
The 2nd of the back to back @$$ whoopings that we took was the only game I ever got to take my dad to (for 2.0) before he passed away.
He took me to so many 1.0 games.
We didn't even score a frick'n goal that game.

I'll always be out for blood against the Caps for that.

 

[buggs]

Boston has been a model franchise for decades and yea they beat themselves up (well they beat up Sweeney) on that draft even in the good times. They have also hit on some picks like McAvoy (14th OA) and Pastrnak (25th OA) that were franchise altering talents. However ,there is no getting around how disastrous this look is:

13th Boston Zabroil
14th Boston DeBrusk
15th Boston Senyshyn
16th Islanders Barzal
17th Jets Connor
18th Ottawa Chabot

I was watching that draft in Tavern United on Pembina. I recall when it came around to Boston's picks I'd resolved myself to one of Zboril, DeBrusk or maybe Chabot.

Then Zboril got drafted and it was like ok, that's alright. Fully expecting Barzal and Connor to be gone regardless that one didn't go at 13.

DeBrusk goes. I'm getting excited here. Hoping maybe the Islanders reach for someone but still expecting maybe we get Chabot.

Sensyshyn? WTF? No really, what the actual feck? I got so excited it was silly. I was vibrating in my seat. My buddy thought I was nuts. We get one of Barzal or Connor regardless? Absolute craziness to have those as choices at 17th OA, a literal no lose proposition. Wanted Barzal because Center, but Connor so good.

We end up with Connor and I can't thank the Bruins enough. Now if Chevy can somehow figure out to get Barzal in trade this year, finally landing that 2C and we could win the cup? Nirvana.

 

[Buffdog]

seravalli said jets could use him yesterday because they haven't been great defensively recently

 

[Gm0ney]

I wonder then if they make their biggest priority to bring in a pk defenseman who they can replace stanley with as they don't like the 3 as much in role so they will need to bring in someone from outside.

I'm not sure it's a personnel issue...the PK just isn't very good. Stanley's had some bad luck and looked bad a few times (but he always looks bad).

 

[robertocarlos]

They also have a category for "Cradle" goals, I am assuming they mean a Michigan goal, but not sure.

That's when a big baby scores a goal.

 

[Moloch]

I thought that Boston looks like a team that just doesn't have it. When your leader is leading by crosschecking people in the back, I'm not sure what kind of leadership that is. Marchand is no Chara, no Bergeron. But the Bruins themselves are a shadow of the team they were. Lately the Jets have been sorting out the pretenders from the contenders in their winning streak.

I was yelling pretty good after the turnover and then the faceoff antics that allowed the Bruins to tie the game up. But then next shift just skate right through them for a grade A, and you realized the Bruins were going to find a way to lose. Then Lohrei giving a freebie to Ehlers. That was pure self destruction and I loved it.

2nd line had a real good game. Not sure why they were so effective, maybe just talked among themselves about what they needed to do better after a substandard game in Montreal.

I thought Scotty shortening the bench in the 2nd, to use 4 defensemen most of the way was a pretty smart move. Rode the guys who could keep the Jets moving in the right direction. Didn't really see anything poor from Stan and Miller, a lot quieter game than the Montreal game with Fleury, but maybe I missed something...

I wasn't too impressed by Parker Ford until the 3rd period. Congrats on #1 kid, in front of family and friends. Real solid move by the Jets to give him his first game in Boston. Listening to the interview he did with Paul Edmonds, I think this kid, who is older than Perfetti, is going to be a good player. Chose to finish his degree before starting pro hockey. Also gave a pretty good endorsement of the organization, who his agent recommended for the way they treat their players. That's a good reputation to have.

Jets winning 9 games in October, November, December and January is a model of consistency.
Next game is vs. the 2nd best team in the league. As of today we're #1.

Yeah JMO doesn't make a lot of mistakes but his turnover that lead to the d zone faceoff and ultimately their short handed goal had me yelling. But the next 5 mins made up for it.

 

[Moloch]

Jets remain a wagon. There is no smokescreen. Even their PD0 is good. 102PD0 isn't a great outlier. Not like the 113 some teams were rocking. They are legit this year. It's fun to see.

Is that steady drop in xGA around game 43 around when samberg returned?

 

[Gm0ney]

And then imagine the Oilers hiring the Bruins head of amature scouting for that draft the following year just because his last name is Gretzky.

The year before though they got Pasta, Donato and Heinan - and the year after they got McAvoy, Frederic and Lindgren.

And I somehow suspect it wasn't Gretzky who disqualified Connor because of his chicken neck. Wayne had a bit of a chicken neck and he turned out pretty good...

 

[Adam da bomb]

Yeah JMO doesn't make a lot of mistakes but his turnover that lead to the d zone faceoff and ultimately their short handed goal had me yelling. But the next 5 mins made up for it.

Would be interesting to see which of our stars turns puck over least.