Post-Game Talk: Jets 3 - Stars 0

[robertocarlos]

At least Pamela Ewing had faith in the Jets...

She owns millions of dollars of real estate in Winnipeg.

 

[JetsFan815]

Yet the second they put ESV together and they had a good game, you were like "haha, told you so"

Cognitive dissonance on display again for everyone to see

Significant sample size of great results produces excellent priors. Every successful subsequent entry confirms those priors.

Significant sample size of bad results produces bad piors and it takes a larger number of good results to shift those priors.

Plain old Bayesianism employed by everyone in the world whether consciously or unconciously.

 

[Atoyot]

Nice jinx!

You're the 3rd to comment that, and to be clear, I don't believe in anything like that in any capacity.

 

[Skidooboy]

I went to university for classical guitar once upon a time. My guitar teacher was absolutely fantastic. He referred me to another guitar teacher to help me with certain techniques that he couldn't help me with as effectively. It's entirely possible that Flaherty is a great goalie coach and that Hellebuyck wanted to work on things that aren't Flaherty's fortés, it's also possible that Flaherty referred Hellebuyck to the consultant himself.

In a similar way, doctors refer patients to other doctors when the problem isn't something they specialize in.

well since we’re at the point where we’re just making up narratives maybe helle just made a deal with magic pixies and flats is a talking donkey.

the situations is not remotely similar to you and your guitar teachers.
you had a prof who probably taught dozens if not more students and had a myriad of issues and needs to deal with … they suggested a private teacher (you paid for it right?) who could focus on you and your specific needs…

flats job is to be a coach full time for 2 men.. that’s it. that’s the job. coach 2 men. maybe in camp 3-4… the rest of the season? 2men.

if he can’t teach them everything? can’t spend the time working their individual development…then what is he there for?

 

[Skidooboy]

Helly has always spoken glowingly of Flats and given him a lot of credit for his development as a goalie. At the risk of bowing to authority I will do so in this case as it seems very likely to me that Helly can judge the quality of a goalie coach better than any of us.

and every hockey player says “X” is a great coach the best, I love him…..

or “trade? i’m committed to this team and this city. I’m here to win a cup for these fans”

what a players says in interviews and TV is different than how they act.

helle can say what he wants… but his action was to go hire somebody else.

 

[Atoyot]

well since we’re at the point where we’re just making up narratives maybe helle just made a deal with magic pixies and flats is a talking donkey.

the situations is not remotely similar to you and your guitar teachers.
you had a prof who probably taught dozens if not more students and had a myriad of issues and needs to deal with … they suggested a private teacher (you paid for it right?) who could focus on you and your specific needs…

flats job is to be a coach full time for 2 men.. that’s it. that’s the job. coach 2 men. maybe in camp 3-4… the rest of the season? 2men.

if he can’t teach them everything? can’t spend the time working their individual development…then what is he there for?

I honestly don't know how to respond to this. Is Flaherty supposed to be an expert in every goalie technique because he's only coaching 2 players? Do you think there are goalie coaches out there who have mastered every technique and know everything? Why weren't they the best goalies in the world?

You're the one entering a fantasy land here my dude, clearly it's more important for you to be right and take shots than to understand how professions work.

Experts understand their limitations.

 

[Duke749]

Fantastic showings by Stanley and Gus. Pionk was really the only player that frustrated me at any point this game, and the only times I remember it happening was on the penalty kill.

Browsing around on NHL Edge, the only Jet defenseman to break 22 miles per hour is Schmidt at 23.10. Samberg is next at 21.99.

Injury prone Ehlers is 3 games away from playing a full season.

We have an extremely balanced lineup and it shows.

Also, I’ve never truly considered any of our top guys “injury prone”. Sometimes injuries just happen.

 

[buggs]

I honestly don't know how to respond to this. Is Flaherty supposed to be an expert in every goalie technique because he's only coaching 2 players? Do you think there are goalie coaches out there who have mastered every technique and know everything? Why weren't they the best goalies in the world?

You're the one entering a fantasy land here my dude, clearly it's more important for you to be right and take shots than to understand how professions work.

Experts understand their limitations.

So Flaherty knows what he knows and cannot possibly learn? If I hadn't learned anything after grad school I wouldn't have been employed very damn long.

I understand others may be more effective in certain areas, but how long has Flats been coaching again?

I'd fire his ass on the basis of stagnation alone.

 

[Buffdog]

Significant sample size of great results produces excellent priors. Every successful subsequent entry confirms those priors.

Significant sample size of bad results produces bad piors and it takes a larger number of good results to shift those priors.

Plain old Bayesianism employed by everyone in the world whether consciously or unconciously.

In that case, the Jets should have lost to Nashville and Dallas, no?

Maybe it's time to realise rhat advanced stats are just a flawed objective way of describing a past event, which may or may not have any bearing on future events. You're making it sound like your spreadsheets are crystal balls that can tell the future. The last two games plus ESV getting their shit handed to them vs playoff teams says otherwise. Yet you keep trotting numbers out - but only when it's convenient to you

And every subsequent failure contradicts those priors. But you ignore that part

 

[buggs]

In that case, the Jets should have lost to Nashville and Dallas, no?

Maybe it's time to realise rhat advanced stats are just a flawed objective way of describing a past event, which may or may not have any bearing on future events. You're making it sound like your spreadsheets are crystal balls that can tell the future. The last two games plus ESV getting their shit handed to them vs playoff teams says otherwise. Yet you keep trotting numbers out - but only when it's convenient to you

And every subsequent failure contradicts those priors. But you ignore that part

All stats are flawed and can be twisted.

The greatest problem with statistics of any sort is an over-reliance on their relative accuracy. They are meant to inform, not to be conclusive.

Years ago during graduate school (I have a minor in statistics FWIW) my advisor and I were having a discussion about multivariate statistics and we agreed that they are useful, but part science, part art and subject to interpretive bias. They'll assure the audience that the "science" is sound.

The media, politicians and all charlatans (was that a redundant statement?) will throw multiple numbers at the masses with their preferred interpretations of what those numbers mean.

That said, numbers can be informative and to ignore them out of hand is just as foolhardy. They can't be used in isolation nor can they be discounted similarly.

To be honest I think @garret9 has used the numbers very effectively and has been very upfront about their general utility and what they do and do not mean. Anyone that is discounting them fully is a fool, just the same as anyone relying on them entirely.

Numbers in small measure (say, I dunno, two games) are not remotely informative and to draw conclusions from a sample size that small, either to support or discount an opinion is like pissing in the wind - it's just going to come back at you. I will also caution that large sample sets are quite easy to twist to fit an agenda. Caveat Emptor.

 

[WolfHouse]

In that case, the Jets should have lost to Nashville and Dallas, no?

Maybe it's time to realise rhat advanced stats are just a flawed objective way of describing a past event, which may or may not have any bearing on future events. You're making it sound like your spreadsheets are crystal balls that can tell the future. The last two games plus ESV getting their shit handed to them vs playoff teams says otherwise. Yet you keep trotting numbers out - but only when it's convenient to you

And every subsequent failure contradicts those priors. But you ignore that part

I mean that's actually how science works... you use observations to gain a critical mass of data and then make inferences... that are more likely to occur than not

What your doing is using recency bias to argue against an entire body of data...

 

[JetsFan815]

In that case, the Jets should have lost to Nashville and Dallas, no?

Maybe it's time to realise rhat advanced stats are just a flawed objective way of describing a past event, which may or may not have any bearing on future events. You're making it sound like your spreadsheets are crystal balls that can tell the future. The last two games plus ESV getting their shit handed to them vs playoff teams says otherwise. Yet you keep trotting numbers out - but only when it's convenient to you

And every subsequent failure contradicts those priors. But you ignore that part

Hate to be the grinch here but I don't give credit. In an individual game in the NHL any team is capable of hanging with any other team. Even the lowly Habs have had impressive wins including against teams like Colorado and looked good in those games.

What separates the wheat from the chaff is having your process be repeatable. That is something that has not happened with this configuration of the lineup. We have had false starts like this one before- 81-55-13 came out like shot out of a cannon in the season opener but since being re-united haven't been good, 81-55-9 had a great start and many including myself hoped that maybe 9 was the solution but they came back down to earth. With all most all variations of these lines except for one it always seem to converge to the same level about ~46% xGoals and ~48% actual goals and breaking even being the absolute ceiling (81-55-13 haven't even hit that bar).

I am not just saying this to poo-poo on things, it is just that this story has played out way too many times before. If they can repeat this with these lines over the next 3-4 games, only then in my opinion the talk of giving credit begins.