Value of: Jesse Puljujarvi's next contract

[Kaibur]

Puljujarvi is on pace for 55pts in 78GP as a 23YO. What does his next contract look like? Oilers fans seem to think he'll get less than $5M per to fit under their cap constraints.

Here are the comps I could find. Most of these guys did not have arbitration rights at the time of their negotiations like JP and none of them were as highly drafted.

Tanner Pearson put up 44pts in 80 GP in 2017 as a 23YO winger and signed a 4yr @ $3.75M per year FIVE YEARS AGO.

Tyler Bertuzzi put 48pts in 71GP as a 23YO, and he got a 1yr @ $3.5M bridge 2 Years ago. After an injury shortened last year of 7pts in 9GP, he got another 2yr @ $4.75M extension that takes him to UFA.

Jake Debrusk put up 35pts in 65GP as a 23YO and got a 2yr @ $3.65M bridge deal almost 2 Years ago.

JT Compher put up 32pts in 66GP as a 23YO and got a 4yr @ $3.5M that takes him to UFA 3 Years ago.

Conor Garland put up 39pts in 49GP as a 24YO and got a 5yr @ $4.95M that takes him to UFA last year.

Reilly Smith put up 40 in 81GP as a 23YO and got a 2yr @ $3.425M signed SEVEN YEARS AGO.

Jaden Schwartz put up 22 in 33GP as a 23YO (after putting up 63pts in 75GP as a 22YO) and got a 5yr @ $5.5M SIX YEARS AGO.

Travis Konecny put up 49pts in 82GP as a 22YO and got a 6yr @ %5.5M signed 3 Years ago.

Nikita Kucherov put up 66pts in 77GP as a 23YO and got a 3yr @ $4.76M signed SIX YEARS AGO.

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[Ledge And Dairy]

They should sign him to a 1 year prove it deal, that way they have the cap space from Keith's contract to pay him

 

[Prairie Habs]

They should sign him to a 1 year prove it deal, that way they have the cap space from Keith's contract to pay him

Or cyberbully Keith into retiring so they can receive the mythical cap credit. Unless they changed the cap recapture in the new CBA, I believe it would free up Keith's 5.5M cap + give them another ~3.5M in magic cap space because of Keith's back-diving deal.

 

[Kaibur]

They should sign him to a 1 year prove it deal, that way they have the cap space from Keith's contract to pay him

But he has arbitration rights and he already took a two-year "show-me" contract for the past two seasons to help with the cap. Why would he wait even longer if he can cash in now, particularly while others from his draft class have already cashed in? Next off-season is when Bouchard's contract extension will be up.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

But he has arbitration rights and he already took a two-year "show-me" contract for the past two seasons to help with the cap. Why would he wait even longer if he can cash in now, particularly while others from his draft class have already cashed in? Next off-season is when Bouchard's contract extension will be up.

That wasn't really a show me deal considering he wasn't playing in the NHL. As for why, there are plenty of reasons; escrow, available money, team player, etc.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

He should get 4 to 5M at least.

 

[Kaibur]

That wasn't really a show me deal considering he wasn't playing in the NHL. As for why, there are plenty of reasons; escrow, available money, team player, etc.

Can you think of any comps of wingers in his position (arbitration, age, production) that has taken a lesser deal in the last few years?

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Can you think of any comps of wingers in his position (arbitration, age, production) that has taken a lesser deal in the last few years?

You realize how unique his situation is right? Leaving the NHL for a year and all.

Fiala took a 1 year team friendly deal after putting up a 66 point pace.

 

[elitepete]

Puljujarvi has improved a lot but him and his agent know that his stats are inflated by McDavid/Draisaitl. I'm guessing they will be able to get him for 2-3m on a bridge deal or 4.5-5 long term.

 

[Kaibur]

You realize how unique his situation is right? Leaving the NHL for a year and all.

Fiala took a 1 year team friendly deal after putting up a 66 point pace.

Doesn't his unique situation lend to the idea that he's open to whatever is best for his career?

The Fiala deal is probably a pretty good comp, although he was a year older, but he did get just over $5M.

I'm imagining that a team expecting to be Cup competitors could offer sheet at $6.15M for 3 years and spend a late 1st and a late 3rd and have JP during his peak years for what they would spend for a rental. He would get paid immediately, switch potentially to a more competitive team, and have a straight line to UFA. Everyone knows the Oilers are going to be pinched against the cap ceiling, including JP's agent, so it seems unlikely that the Oilers can lowball him and get away with it. Especially after Kotkaniemi last year, does it really seem that farfetched? It should be seen as a real risk by Oilers management, I think. Yet people seem to be talking about his contract like he'll get some miniscule raise to help the team's cap woes.

 

[TFHockey]

Doesn't his unique situation lend to the idea that he's open to whatever is best for his career?

The Fiala deal is probably a pretty good comp, although he was a year older, but he did get just over $5M.

I'm imagining that a team expecting to be Cup competitors could offer sheet at $6.15M for 3 years and spend a late 1st and a late 3rd and have JP during his peak years for what they would spend for a rental. He would get paid immediately, switch potentially to a more competitive team, and have a straight line to UFA. Everyone knows the Oilers are going to be pinched against the cap ceiling, including JP's agent, so it seems unlikely that the Oilers can lowball him and get away with it. Especially after Kotkaniemi last year, does it really seem that farfetched? It should be seen as a real risk by Oilers management, I think. Yet people seem to be talking about his contract like he'll get some miniscule raise to help the team's cap woes.

So this is really the point of your thread. What team will tender an offer sheet and screw the Oilers? Offer sheets are rare, and the team will make room to sign him. That is what is going to happen.

Sorry to burst your bubble.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

We start the bidding at $100,000,000.

No Puljujarvi for you.

 

[Kaibur]

So this is really the point of your thread. What team will tender an offer sheet and screw the Oilers? Offer sheets are rare, and the team will make room to sign him. That is what is going to happen.

Sorry to burst your bubble.

No, I don't think it's always an offer sheet. I think agents of RFAs use the threat of offer sheets as leverage. Usually it's not very realistic as a threat and RFAs end up kowtowing, sometimes after a little bluster and a late camp signing or something. But this one actually looks like it's in that same model. And yet Oilers fans don't seem to see it that way and I'm trying to understand why, given all of the comps that are out there. There just doesn't seem to be a good explanation why there would be any expectation that he's going to sign below his market value. And yet that expectation seems to exist.

 

[Kibe]

Can you think of any comps of wingers in his position (arbitration, age, production) that has taken a lesser deal in the last few years?

Drake Batherson is a good recent comp.

 

[elitepete]

Doesn't his unique situation lend to the idea that he's open to whatever is best for his career?

The Fiala deal is probably a pretty good comp, although he was a year older, but he did get just over $5M.

I'm imagining that a team expecting to be Cup competitors could offer sheet at $6.15M for 3 years and spend a late 1st and a late 3rd and have JP during his peak years for what they would spend for a rental. He would get paid immediately, switch potentially to a more competitive team, and have a straight line to UFA. Everyone knows the Oilers are going to be pinched against the cap ceiling, including JP's agent, so it seems unlikely that the Oilers can lowball him and get away with it. Especially after Kotkaniemi last year, does it really seem that farfetched? It should be seen as a real risk by Oilers management, I think. Yet people seem to be talking about his contract like he'll get some miniscule raise to help the team's cap woes.

This is pretty unlikely. Offersheets happen once in a blue moon, and how many contenders have over 6m in salary cap space laying around?

 

[Three On Zero]

Puljujarvi has improved a lot but him and his agent know that his stats are inflated by McDavid/Draisaitl. I'm guessing they will be able to get him for 2-3m on a bridge deal or 4.5-5 long term.

He got bridged already, not sure he takes another

 

[NotAVacuumSalesman]

I'm imagining that a team expecting to be Cup competitors could offer sheet at $6.15M for 3 years and spend a late 1st and a late 3rd and have JP during his peak years for what they would spend for a rental. He would get paid immediately, switch potentially to a more competitive team, and have a straight line to UFA. Everyone knows the Oilers are going to be pinched against the cap ceiling, including JP's agent, so it seems unlikely that the Oilers can lowball him and get away with it. Especially after Kotkaniemi last year, does it really seem that farfetched? It should be seen as a real risk by Oilers management, I think. Yet people seem to be talking about his contract like he'll get some miniscule raise to help the team's cap woes.

This scenario is bizarre and unrealistic.

Cup contending team wants to poach JP, help him get to UFA status, and squeeze the Oilers cap space. Is that the headline?

I'm genuinely curious to know which cup contender has 6.15M cap space laying around.

You do realize there's a back story to why Kotkaniemi was offer sheeted right?

 

[DarthProbert]

Sure, offer JP less than 5mil...tell him he's worth less than Keith or Koskinen. This is his chance to GTFO of Edmonton and play games that matter.

 

[Scintillating10]

Puljujarvi is on pace for 55pts in 78GP as a 23YO. What does his next contract look like? Oilers fans seem to think he'll get less than $5M per to fit under their cap constraints.

Here are the comps I could find. Most of these guys did not have arbitration rights at the time of their negotiations like JP and none of them were as highly drafted.

Tanner Pearson put up 44pts in 80 GP in 2017 as a 23YO winger and signed a 4yr @ $3.75M per year FIVE YEARS AGO.

Tyler Bertuzzi put 48pts in 71GP as a 23YO, and he got a 1yr @ $3.5M bridge 2 Years ago. After an injury shortened last year of 7pts in 9GP, he got another 2yr @ $4.75M extension that takes him to UFA.

Jake Debrusk put up 35pts in 65GP as a 23YO and got a 2yr @ $3.65M bridge deal almost 2 Years ago.

JT Compher put up 32pts in 66GP as a 23YO and got a 4yr @ $3.5M that takes him to UFA 3 Years ago.

Conor Garland put up 39pts in 49GP as a 24YO and got a 5yr @ $4.95M that takes him to UFA last year.

Reilly Smith put up 40 in 81GP as a 23YO and got a 2yr @ $3.425M signed SEVEN YEARS AGO.

Jaden Schwartz put up 22 in 33GP as a 23YO (after putting up 63pts in 75GP as a 22YO) and got a 5yr @ $5.5M SIX YEARS AGO.

Travis Konecny put up 49pts in 82GP as a 22YO and got a 6yr @ %5.5M signed 3 Years ago.

Nikita Kucherov put up 66pts in 77GP as a 23YO and got a 3yr @ $4.76M signed SIX YEARS AGO.

Another team may Koktaniemi him next summer. Where Oil have limited cap. Get a late first and third at 6.1 million

 

[ManofSteel55]

Sure, offer JP less than 5mil...tell him he's worth less than Keith or Koskinen. This is his chance to GTFO of Edmonton and play games that matter.

I don't think the worst contract signing in team history or a contract signed a decade ago by a Norris trophy winner in his prime are really comparable.

 

[Kaibur]

This scenario is bizarre and unrealistic.

Cup contending team wants to poach JP, help him get to UFA status, and squeeze the Oilers cap space. Is that the headline?

I'm genuinely curious to know which cup contender has 6.15M cap space laying around.

You do realize there's a back story to why Kotkaniemi was offer sheeted right?

Carolina might again be interesting. Niederreiter is UFA and makes $5.25M. If they don't get quite as deep as they'd like, maybe they replace him by offer-sheeting JP. Similar style players, similar money, but JP is 5 years younger and a little more productive this year. And they've done it before, just last year, so they've shown a willingness. Spending another late 1st and 3rd while getting a player who can contribute to a competitive team now, while also growing with Kotkaniemi, Svech, and Necas to be the future sounds pretty attractive. Adding former 3rd and 4th overall players while spending later picks actually seems like a pretty good strategy to pack your young core.

So that's one.

 

[Kaibur]

I don't think the worst contract signing in team history or a contract signed a decade ago by a Norris trophy winner in his prime are really comparable.

Okay, what about Hyman, a forward who they signed last year to 7yr @ $5.5M with NMC/NTC even though he has never put up more than 41pts in a season. If JP is more productive this season and they offer him less, that seems like a pretty good comparable on the same club that his agent will point out.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Okay, what about Hyman, a forward who they signed last year to 7yr @ $5.5M with NMC/NTC even though he has never put up more than 41pts in a season. If JP is more productive this season and they offer him less, that seems like a pretty good comparable on the same club that his agent will point out.

UFA vs RFA. There isn't a good comparable for Pulujarvi. His offense is inconsistent, defense is very good, but a lot of his production comes from McDavid and Draisaitl. His agent will recognize that. He will also want him to have the best chance to produce in the next short deal so he can cash in on a big long term deal next contract.

 

[NotAVacuumSalesman]

Carolina might again be interesting. Niederreiter is UFA and makes $5.25M. If they don't get quite as deep as they'd like, maybe they replace him by offer-sheeting JP. Similar style players, similar money, but JP is 5 years younger and a little more productive this year. And they've done it before, just last year, so they've shown a willingness. Spending another late 1st and 3rd while getting a player who can contribute to a competitive team now, while also growing with Kotkaniemi, Svech, and Necas to be the future sounds pretty attractive. Adding former 3rd and 4th overall players while spending later picks actually seems like a pretty good strategy to pack your young core.

So that's one.

You mean to tell me Carolina will offer sheet JP while needing to sign Kotkaniemi, Necas, Lorentz, TDA, and Bear? Who are all RFAs. Not to mention the other crops of RFAs in the minors. TDA's put up an excellent season so far, who will get a significant raise and likely take up Niederreiter's cap hit, maybe more.

I haven't even mentioned the UFAs that they need to sign/replace.

I don't see it happening.

 

[Kaibur]

UFA vs RFA. There isn't a good comparable for Pulujarvi. His offense is inconsistent, defense is very good, but a lot of his production comes from McDavid and Draisaitl. His agent will recognize that. He will also want him to have the best chance to produce in the next short deal so he can cash in on a big long term deal next contract.

He's got arbitration rights and there are lots of comparables that would be pointed to in an arbitration hearing. If it goes to arbitration, what type of offer at present would you expect the Oilers to submit? Which comps do you think they'd like to point to?