Confirmed with Link: Jeff Skinner, $3M x 1 year

[Ritchie Valens]

Only one year removed from an 80 point season. This is potentially a top line player if he can stay healthy and gets some PP minutes.


That's what contending teams do historically. They scoop good players at a discount. Does not matter what their motivation is, a chance at the cup or the possibility to increase their market value. Call it a Hossa syndrom.


He's been getting worse every year. This season he still managed 20 goals and 40, which is a borderline for a top 6 forward. Won't surprise if this season he does not score 20 goals.

He’s had two major injuries the last two seasons. That cut to the wrist damn near ended his career and was a freak thing to have happen. I’m sure that’s had some lingering effects on his shot mechanics. Then the sports hernia this year where he couldn’t even sit, again not a sign of decline-just an unfortunate thing to have happen.

I like Kane and want to see him play healthy before casting him off.

 

[tiger_80]

Don't think it's that simple. Started last season with 5G 13P in 14GP before having his wrist lacerated. Got healthy over the summer and started this season with 11G 20P in 22GP the first 2 months of the season. Not sure when his injury happened but I'd guess it had to be around December when his game fell off a cliff.

I don't think we've seen a healthy Kane outside of the start of the past 2 seasons.

But injuries is one of the things that ultimately makes players less effective. It's not like most just fall off the cliff.

 

[McJadeddog]

But injuries is one of the things that ultimately makes players less effective. It's not like most just fall off the cliff.

Sports hernias don't tend to have lingering issues, at least from what I was able to dig up in a few mins of looking at it. The wrist injury didn't seem to affect him at the start of last year, as he was one of our only bright spots at the beginning of the year.

Your point stands that power forwards tend to fall off pretty dramatically in the mid 30s, and I don't really expect anything different from Kane, but he has actually been really good when healthy the past two years. Additionally, he is only 33 next year, so starting to get into that danger zone for power forwards, but its probably 50/50 whether his hard decline starts next year or not. Its certainly not guaranteed by any means that he cant produce next year. When you think that he is likely LTIR'd for at least some portion next year and what Jackson was saying in interviews, Kane's health is the primary thing right now, so I would imagine he'll come into next year in good shape.

When healthy, Kane really is a unicorn, there is no getting around that fact. I personally think its worth the gamble, as he can turn an entire series around on his own when he is on.

 

[tiger_80]

Sports hernias don't tend to have lingering issues, at least from what I was able to dig up in a few mins of looking at it. The wrist injury didn't seem to affect him at the start of last year, as he was one of our only bright spots at the beginning of the year.

Your point stands that power forwards tend to fall off pretty dramatically in the mid 30s, and I don't really expect anything different from Kane, but he has actually been really good when healthy the past two years. Additionally, he is only 33 next year, so starting to get into that danger zone for power forwards, but its probably 50/50 whether his hard decline starts next year or not. Its certainly not guaranteed by any means that he cant produce next year. When you think that he is likely LTIR'd for at least some portion next year and what Jackson was saying in interviews, Kane's health is the primary thing right now, so I would imagine he'll come into next year in good shape.

When healthy, Kane really is a unicorn, there is no getting around that fact. I personally think its worth the gamble, as he can turn an entire series around on his own when he is on.

We'll see, yes. He 's one of the players I don't mind them putting on the LTIR and activating for the playoffs.

 

[Zman5778]

Sabres fan here, chiming in. Surprised only a couple other Sabres fans have chimed in with only a few things.

The positives: Skinner can still snipe. He's absolutely lethal in close and in the slot. His shot isn't hard, but it's accurate....he won't be hitting 85+, but he'll put it exactly where he wants it, anytime. His edgework and close-range quickness is/are still elite. When he's on his game, he's a yapper that does not shut up (ever) and will get under the skin of opponents. He will occasionally battle along the boards, and is usually pretty good at puck control. He has underrated vision and is a pretty solid-to-good passer. While he's not a "leader" per se.....he's a great character to have in the room. Go look up "Between Two Stalls" on YouTube....trust me.

The neutral: He's fine cashing chances on the PP (PP2 for you guys)......but do not let him be the one to enter the zone. Also, expect some "WTF was that, Skinner" passes/decisions on the PP.

The negatives: The under-the-radar (kinda) negative with him is there's a real question on if his straight-line speed is gone. At some point last year, he just stopped being fast. All of us on the Sabres board speculated that he had some sort of LBI that he was nursing....but he, Granato and Adams all absolutely swore he was healthy. As I said above, he's still super quick and shifty in short areas......but there's a real worry that his long speed is gone. Which then kind of leads to his major, major issue: he is one of the worst forwards in the defensive end in the NHL. And I'm trying really hard to be objective. He's a master puck-watcher. He LOVES to blow the zone early (which combined with his lack of footspeed....ugh). He seems like he legitimately has no idea where to be in the defensive zone (though to be fair, that may be on our coaching....who didn't have a clue that defense needed to be taught). He will occasionally over-handle the puck instead of playing simply.

In summary: Offensively and in the offensive zone, Skinner still has a ton to give. The reason why we cut bait with him is that it certainly seems like Ruff and company are bringing a fresh "Hey morons, you need to actually play defense" sensibility to our forwards....and there's no chance Skinner would have succeeded in that. But....if you keep the puck in the offensive zone, that's no concern.

Good luck and take care of him. We're all expecting him to be the next Sabres castoff to win the Cup. Either that or you don't make the playoffs. I see no in-between.

 

[sabremike]

 

[McFlyingV]

But injuries is one of the things that ultimately makes players less effective. It's not like most just fall off the cliff.

Sure, but he appeared to be healthy the following season after his wrist (which was a fluke injury) and then played an entire season injured with his hernia. There's no reason to think he won't be healthy and effective again once he's had surgery or rehabbed that issue.

Injuries can compound especially when they're the same issue recurring and that can make players fall off. But usually isolated injuries that are rehabbed properly don't make people fall off especially at the age of 32.

 

[TheNumber4]

Sabres fan here, chiming in. Surprised only a couple other Sabres fans have chimed in with only a few things.

The positives: Skinner can still snipe. He's absolutely lethal in close and in the slot. His shot isn't hard, but it's accurate....he won't be hitting 85+, but he'll put it exactly where he wants it, anytime. His edgework and close-range quickness is/are still elite. When he's on his game, he's a yapper that does not shut up (ever) and will get under the skin of opponents. He will occasionally battle along the boards, and is usually pretty good at puck control. He has underrated vision and is a pretty solid-to-good passer. While he's not a "leader" per se.....he's a great character to have in the room. Go look up "Between Two Stalls" on YouTube....trust me.

The neutral: He's fine cashing chances on the PP (PP2 for you guys)......but do not let him be the one to enter the zone. Also, expect some "WTF was that, Skinner" passes/decisions on the PP.

The negatives: The under-the-radar (kinda) negative with him is there's a real question on if his straight-line speed is gone. At some point last year, he just stopped being fast. All of us on the Sabres board speculated that he had some sort of LBI that he was nursing....but he, Granato and Adams all absolutely swore he was healthy. As I said above, he's still super quick and shifty in short areas......but there's a real worry that his long speed is gone. Which then kind of leads to his major, major issue: he is one of the worst forwards in the defensive end in the NHL. And I'm trying really hard to be objective. He's a master puck-watcher. He LOVES to blow the zone early (which combined with his lack of footspeed....ugh). He seems like he legitimately has no idea where to be in the defensive zone (though to be fair, that may be on our coaching....who didn't have a clue that defense needed to be taught). He will occasionally over-handle the puck instead of playing simply.

In summary: Offensively and in the offensive zone, Skinner still has a ton to give. The reason why we cut bait with him is that it certainly seems like Ruff and company are bringing a fresh "Hey morons, you need to actually play defense" sensibility to our forwards....and there's no chance Skinner would have succeeded in that. But....if you keep the puck in the offensive zone, that's no concern.

Good luck and take care of him. We're all expecting him to be the next Sabres castoff to win the Cup. Either that or you don't make the playoffs. I see no in-between.

Thanks. Good scouting report, appreciate it. I would agree on his offensive talent and think he will shine in the regard here. Foot speed is a concern, especially on an Oilers team built for speed. Defensive issues I hope can be mitigated with some coaching by Knoblauch and his simple to follow zone defence, but Skinner will need to commit. Knob doesn't have much patience for players who can't keep up in his system.

 

[McFlyingV]

Sabres fan here, chiming in. Surprised only a couple other Sabres fans have chimed in with only a few things.

The positives: Skinner can still snipe. He's absolutely lethal in close and in the slot. His shot isn't hard, but it's accurate....he won't be hitting 85+, but he'll put it exactly where he wants it, anytime. His edgework and close-range quickness is/are still elite. When he's on his game, he's a yapper that does not shut up (ever) and will get under the skin of opponents. He will occasionally battle along the boards, and is usually pretty good at puck control. He has underrated vision and is a pretty solid-to-good passer. While he's not a "leader" per se.....he's a great character to have in the room. Go look up "Between Two Stalls" on YouTube....trust me.

The neutral: He's fine cashing chances on the PP (PP2 for you guys)......but do not let him be the one to enter the zone. Also, expect some "WTF was that, Skinner" passes/decisions on the PP.

The negatives: The under-the-radar (kinda) negative with him is there's a real question on if his straight-line speed is gone. At some point last year, he just stopped being fast. All of us on the Sabres board speculated that he had some sort of LBI that he was nursing....but he, Granato and Adams all absolutely swore he was healthy. As I said above, he's still super quick and shifty in short areas......but there's a real worry that his long speed is gone. Which then kind of leads to his major, major issue: he is one of the worst forwards in the defensive end in the NHL. And I'm trying really hard to be objective. He's a master puck-watcher. He LOVES to blow the zone early (which combined with his lack of footspeed....ugh). He seems like he legitimately has no idea where to be in the defensive zone (though to be fair, that may be on our coaching....who didn't have a clue that defense needed to be taught). He will occasionally over-handle the puck instead of playing simply.

In summary: Offensively and in the offensive zone, Skinner still has a ton to give. The reason why we cut bait with him is that it certainly seems like Ruff and company are bringing a fresh "Hey morons, you need to actually play defense" sensibility to our forwards....and there's no chance Skinner would have succeeded in that. But....if you keep the puck in the offensive zone, that's no concern.

Good luck and take care of him. We're all expecting him to be the next Sabres castoff to win the Cup. Either that or you don't make the playoffs. I see no in-between.

Thanks for the analysis. Sounds like the perfect winger for McDavid-Hyman who is an excellent 2-way machine that spends most of their time in the offensive zone, and are generally played with Ekholm+Bouchard who dominate with denying zone entries and quick zone exits. I just have to think that given Skinner's skill around the net/in the slot he could score 40-50 with McDavid. There's just no one who generates and completes slot passes the way McDavid does.

 

[McFlyingV]

Sports hernias don't tend to have lingering issues, at least from what I was able to dig up in a few mins of looking at it. The wrist injury didn't seem to affect him at the start of last year, as he was one of our only bright spots at the beginning of the year.

Your point stands that power forwards tend to fall off pretty dramatically in the mid 30s, and I don't really expect anything different from Kane, but he has actually been really good when healthy the past two years. Additionally, he is only 33 next year, so starting to get into that danger zone for power forwards, but its probably 50/50 whether his hard decline starts next year or not. Its certainly not guaranteed by any means that he cant produce next year. When you think that he is likely LTIR'd for at least some portion next year and what Jackson was saying in interviews, Kane's health is the primary thing right now, so I would imagine he'll come into next year in good shape.

When healthy, Kane really is a unicorn, there is no getting around that fact. I personally think its worth the gamble, as he can turn an entire series around on his own when he is on.

Couldn't agree more. People forget he still put up 4-4-8 in 20 playoff games while needing injections constantly, and he did that while playing a very physical game the first 2 series of the playoffs. That's not even bad production for playoff hockey. I understand him becoming a cap casualty if they need the space, but right now unless they have some deal they can find for an excellent middle pairing D then I see no reason for him to be the cap casualty over Ceci. Trading Ceci gives them around 1 mil cap space even with the RFAs signed, and gives you the ability to add a 6M+ cap hit Dman at the deadline with retention. I have no issue riding Ek-Bouch, Nurse-Broberg, Kulak-Stetcher to start the year.

 

[CROTT]

If you get, you get it…

 

[McDoused]

He’s had two major injuries the last two seasons. That cut to the wrist damn near ended his career and was a freak thing to have happen. I’m sure that’s had some lingering effects on his shot mechanics. Then the sports hernia this year where he couldn’t even sit, again not a sign of decline-just an unfortunate thing to have happen.

I like Kane and want to see him play healthy before casting him off.

This is where all the stats only get you so far. Like I saw NHL edge stats to support that he's one of the slowest players in the league. Like you don't need to be a genius to figure out that might be in part to injury.

 

[Thomas Tatar]

Sabres fan here, chiming in. Surprised only a couple other Sabres fans have chimed in with only a few things.

The positives: Skinner can still snipe. He's absolutely lethal in close and in the slot. His shot isn't hard, but it's accurate....he won't be hitting 85+, but he'll put it exactly where he wants it, anytime. His edgework and close-range quickness is/are still elite. When he's on his game, he's a yapper that does not shut up (ever) and will get under the skin of opponents. He will occasionally battle along the boards, and is usually pretty good at puck control. He has underrated vision and is a pretty solid-to-good passer. While he's not a "leader" per se.....he's a great character to have in the room. Go look up "Between Two Stalls" on YouTube....trust me.

The neutral: He's fine cashing chances on the PP (PP2 for you guys)......but do not let him be the one to enter the zone. Also, expect some "WTF was that, Skinner" passes/decisions on the PP.

The negatives: The under-the-radar (kinda) negative with him is there's a real question on if his straight-line speed is gone. At some point last year, he just stopped being fast. All of us on the Sabres board speculated that he had some sort of LBI that he was nursing....but he, Granato and Adams all absolutely swore he was healthy. As I said above, he's still super quick and shifty in short areas......but there's a real worry that his long speed is gone. Which then kind of leads to his major, major issue: he is one of the worst forwards in the defensive end in the NHL. And I'm trying really hard to be objective. He's a master puck-watcher. He LOVES to blow the zone early (which combined with his lack of footspeed....ugh). He seems like he legitimately has no idea where to be in the defensive zone (though to be fair, that may be on our coaching....who didn't have a clue that defense needed to be taught). He will occasionally over-handle the puck instead of playing simply.

In summary: Offensively and in the offensive zone, Skinner still has a ton to give. The reason why we cut bait with him is that it certainly seems like Ruff and company are bringing a fresh "Hey morons, you need to actually play defense" sensibility to our forwards....and there's no chance Skinner would have succeeded in that. But....if you keep the puck in the offensive zone, that's no concern.

Good luck and take care of him. We're all expecting him to be the next Sabres castoff to win the Cup. Either that or you don't make the playoffs. I see no in-between.

Thanks for this. Watched a bunch of episodes of between two stalls and he is a character. You can see the players trying their hardest not to burst out laughing. I think having guys like that in the room is a huge bonus.

As with his defensive effort, I think that part of our culture over the last year is that everyone pulls their weight and more than one player have commented that they are inspired by how hard Connor works on and off the ice and it makes them feel compelled to work harder as well. So hopefully that also rubs off on Skinner. Seems like a legit good guy.

 

[MessierII]

But injuries is one of the things that ultimately makes players less effective. It's not like most just fall off the cliff.

If Kane is healthy and crapping the bed sure. The fact of the matter is though he’s been great when he’s healthy. Him being possible LTIR candidate can be a huge advantage also.

 

[sportsdynasty]

He’s had two major injuries the last two seasons. That cut to the wrist damn near ended his career and was a freak thing to have happen. I’m sure that’s had some lingering effects on his shot mechanics. Then the sports hernia this year where he couldn’t even sit, again not a sign of decline-just an unfortunate thing to have happen.

I like Kane and want to see him play healthy before casting him off.

Get rid of Kane. He'll never recover from his serious wrist cut.

 

[McFlyingV]

Get rid of Kane. He'll never recover from his serious wrist cut.

He scored 20 goals last year. I think the wrist is fine.

 

[mjd1001]

Convince me this is good?

I've watched a bunch of Buffalo games over the last few years, let me try:

-He goes to the net. A lot of guys are perimeter players, not Skinner. Despite his lack of size, he will give you the ugly garbage goals, great hands.

-He seems to be well liked by teammates, no problems in the media either. Nothing close to a 'locker room cancer' guy, never will be.

-He's a pest. He will get under other guys skin.

-despite him getting older, he still is a 25 goal guy, maybe 30 on the right line with good ice time.

You didn't ask for it, but the bad:

-No defense. Like he doesn't even make an effort. I posted this elsewhere, but I have seen, SEVERAL times in Buffalo games, the puck goes into the defensive zone, he comes back late and when he gets to the blue line, he just slams on the brakes. I have seen him hang around the Blue line while the rest of the team plays 5 on 4 trying to get the puck out of the zone. It happens, it actually does. That is why I'm assuming Lindy Ruff wants no part of him. Buffalo has 4-5 young former first rounders coming up. I think Ruff thinks he can get 70% of the production out of one of those guys and if he gets even DECENT effort in the D-zone it would be an improvement for Buffalo.

 

[McHelpus]

I've watched a bunch of Buffalo games over the last few years, let me try:

-He goes to the net. A lot of guys are perimeter players, not Skinner. Despite his lack of size, he will give you the ugly garbage goals, great hands.

-He seems to be well liked by teammates, no problems in the media either. Nothing close to a 'locker room cancer' guy, never will be.

-He's a pest. He will get under other guys skin.

-despite him getting older, he still is a 25 goal guy, maybe 30 on the right line with good ice time.

You didn't ask for it, but the bad:

-No defense. Like he doesn't even make an effort. I posted this elsewhere, but I have seen, SEVERAL times in Buffalo games, the puck goes into the defensive zone, he comes back late and when he gets to the blue line, he just slams on the brakes. I have seen him hang around the Blue line while the rest of the team plays 5 on 4 trying to get the puck out of the zone. It happens, it actually does. That is why I'm assuming Lindy Ruff wants no part of him. Buffalo has 4-5 young former first rounders coming up. I think Ruff thinks he can get 70% of the production out of one of those guys and if he gets even DECENT effort in the D-zone it would be an improvement for Buffalo.

I feel like we all agree offensive game isn't the problem. I worry when the Oilers have Ceci and Skinner on the ice in the Dzone. It just sounds like a disaster..

 

[oobga]

I feel like we all agree offensive game isn't the problem. I worry when the Oilers have Ceci and Skinner on the ice in the Dzone. It just sounds like a disaster..

Imaging a 5-some of Kane-Drai-Skinner Nurse-Ceci

We know what having a winnger like Skinner like already. Have Kane already. Had Kassian playing top6 before.

Can only have 1 guy like that per line max. Would actually be interested to see Skinner with McDavid. McDavid needs a crafty shooter on his line with good offensive instincts. Nuge has played well with Drai in the past, and honestly hasn't been able to keep up with McDavid for a while. Skinner, even if his foot speed has fallen, apparently is still really good at being a part of rush chances. Nuge is almost never there with McDavid on a rush 5v5. Maybe this is all because one guy is constantly cheating and one isn't

 

[fireantz]

If you want to play with 97 or 29 play 200 ft or else you get 71 and 10

 

[oobga]

If you want to play with 97 or 29 play 200 ft or else you get 71 and 10

We want goals though

Achieve 2 reliable D pairs and we can be a lot more comfortable with Skinner and Kane in the top 6. Arvidsson and Hyman can be the designated defensive leaning guys on each line.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

If you want to play with 97 or 29 play 200 ft or else you get 71 and 10

Or pot 40.

 

[mjd1001]

Imaging a 5-some of Kane-Drai-Skinner Nurse-Ceci

We know what having a winnger like Skinner like already. Have Kane already. Had Kassian playing top6 before.

Can only have 1 guy like that per line max. Would actually be interested to see Skinner with McDavid. McDavid needs a crafty shooter on his line with good offensive instincts. Nuge has played well with Drai in the past, and honestly hasn't been able to keep up with McDavid for a while. Skinner, even if his foot speed has fallen, apparently is still really good at being a part of rush chances. Nuge is almost never there with McDavid on a rush 5v5. Maybe this is all because one guy is constantly cheating and one isn't

I'm not sure he is a guy you want with McDavid. Skinner has a 'good' shot, but its not great. He gets more of his goals hanging right around the paint in front of the goalie.
As far as skating he is kinda unique. He is a very good skater, but not fast at all. Stays on his feet well, good footwork, but look at NHL edge hard data. He is one of the slower skaters in terms of top speed and one of the slowest one in terms of 'speed burts' over 20mph.

Basically, Skinner is much slower than people thing, like bottom 1/4 of the league slow in terms of skating speed/keeping up with the play.

 

[oobga]

I'm not sure he is a guy you want with McDavid. Skinner has a 'good' shot, but its not great. He gets more of his goals hanging right around the paint in front of the goalie.
As far as skating he is kinda unique. He is a very good skater, but not fast at all. Stays on his feet well, good footwork, but look at NHL edge hard data. He is one of the slower skaters in terms of top speed and one of the slowest one in terms of 'speed burts' over 20mph.

Basically, Skinner is much slower than people thing, like bottom 1/4 of the league slow in terms of skating speed/keeping up with the play.

Speed is important, but offensive instincts are even more important to be able to participate in rush opportunities. That's why Nuge is rarely seen on rushes, even when playing with McDavid. Eberle has always been a regular at contributing on rushes without great speed. I lost where I saw rush stats for Skinner, but he has been prolific on rushes in his career and still has been recently.



lots of rush goals in this season. Heads up, keeps finding ways to make himself available on the rush, good finishing. That's only goals, had 47 assists too that year. Was 14th among forwards in the NHL for ES points in 22-23.

here is a 2022 stats card for Skinner

lol, he is almost all rush offense here. I think he can still surprise. We haven't had a winger like this for a while. Probably not since Eberle.

 

[Shizuka]

Sabres fan here, chiming in. Surprised only a couple other Sabres fans have chimed in with only a few things.

The positives: Skinner can still snipe. He's absolutely lethal in close and in the slot. His shot isn't hard, but it's accurate....he won't be hitting 85+, but he'll put it exactly where he wants it, anytime. His edgework and close-range quickness is/are still elite. When he's on his game, he's a yapper that does not shut up (ever) and will get under the skin of opponents. He will occasionally battle along the boards, and is usually pretty good at puck control. He has underrated vision and is a pretty solid-to-good passer. While he's not a "leader" per se.....he's a great character to have in the room. Go look up "Between Two Stalls" on YouTube....trust me.

The neutral: He's fine cashing chances on the PP (PP2 for you guys)......but do not let him be the one to enter the zone. Also, expect some "WTF was that, Skinner" passes/decisions on the PP.

The negatives: The under-the-radar (kinda) negative with him is there's a real question on if his straight-line speed is gone. At some point last year, he just stopped being fast. All of us on the Sabres board speculated that he had some sort of LBI that he was nursing....but he, Granato and Adams all absolutely swore he was healthy. As I said above, he's still super quick and shifty in short areas......but there's a real worry that his long speed is gone. Which then kind of leads to his major, major issue: he is one of the worst forwards in the defensive end in the NHL. And I'm trying really hard to be objective. He's a master puck-watcher. He LOVES to blow the zone early (which combined with his lack of footspeed....ugh). He seems like he legitimately has no idea where to be in the defensive zone (though to be fair, that may be on our coaching....who didn't have a clue that defense needed to be taught). He will occasionally over-handle the puck instead of playing simply.

In summary: Offensively and in the offensive zone, Skinner still has a ton to give. The reason why we cut bait with him is that it certainly seems like Ruff and company are bringing a fresh "Hey morons, you need to actually play defense" sensibility to our forwards....and there's no chance Skinner would have succeeded in that. But....if you keep the puck in the offensive zone, that's no concern.

Good luck and take care of him. We're all expecting him to be the next Sabres castoff to win the Cup. Either that or you don't make the playoffs. I see no in-between.

Great feedback on Skinner, thanks for all that! It highlights concerns I had about his straight line speed at this stage, which you confirmed. Also, his lack of commitment in the defensive end... I had reservations but he's here now (thankfully just a year). Appreciate the few Sabres fans including yourself chiming in, we obviously don't see the Sabres very much so it's tough to get a read on this guy's overall game.