Value of: Jason Robertson to the Ottawa Senators

[account deactivated]

And yet Robertson outproduces those guys every year while being a key driver for a better team.

Referring to Robertson as a "driver" is wild. He's put up some good numbers in his career, but he has never driven shit. It's precisely why Stars fans like myself would be fine trading him for someone that does.

 

[SirloinUB]

Referring to Robertson as a "driver" is wild. He's put up some good numbers in his career, but he has never driven shit. It's precisely why Stars fans like myself would be fine trading him for someone that does.

I guess I totally misread how the stars value him. I assumed he was in the category of "Our star player isn't available and you're going to have to overpay to get him".

If he can available for a fair price I hope my team kicks those tires this summer.

 

[account deactivated]

I guess I totally misread how the stars value him. I assumed he was in the category of "Our star player isn't available and you're going to have to overpay to get him".

If he can available for a fair price I hope my team kicks those tires this summer.

Don't get me wrong, he can certainly produce, but he needs someone else to drive his line.

I don't think the Stars are eager to trade him, but if he's looking for 11-12+ million per year, they're probably gonna entertain offers because (imo) he's not the type of dynamic that warrants being the highest paid player on the team.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I could see Dallas moving Mason Marchment but not Jason Robertson

 

[zenator]

Sens are also cap-strapped. If they sign Giroux, they'll have about $5.5 million available. Considering the Sens have 10 top 9 forwards, and Nick Jensen's health is a question mark, I'd lean towards adding a RD before a LW.

Robertson is a very good player, but there are other players with a similar cap hit I'd take on the Sens way before Robertson. Robertson doesn't fit the profile of players Sens want to add, not a great fit.

 

[Barsky]

With the Dallas Stars being cap strapped, what would it cost to get Robertson on the Sens?

A good question! Another one is why would anyone choose one of history's most evil mass murderers for an avatar?

 

[Gaud]

Why would Dallas trade Robertson + for a guy who produces less?

I think the Sens Fans argument here would probably be that Tkachuk is more of a playoff type player. I think the points would be a little closer if BT was in Dallas.

the more i think about it, the closer this trade is. I think one on one would be possible, though if there was an add id put it on Ottawa to provide it, not Dallas.

 

[Barsky]

I think the Sens Fans argument here would probably be that Tkachuk is more of a playoff type player. I think the points would be a little closer if BT was in Dallas.

the more i think about it, the closer this trade is. I think one on one would be possible, though if there was an add id put it on Ottawa to provide it, not Dallas.

Given that Robo is about to cost WAY more than either Brady or Timmy in terms of cap, I don't see the Sens as being the ones to add, especially since he's the oldest and by far the worst skater of the 3

 

[Gaud]

Given that Robo is about to cost WAY more than either Brady or Timmy in terms of cap, I don't see the Sens as being the ones to add, especially since he's the oldest and by far the worst skater of the 3

To be fair, the landscape has changed. Both Brady and Robertson would have more than 8 M in today's NHL. With the cap going up quite a bit in the next few years, its also no doubt they would get a payday compared to what was available in terms of funds back then. A lot of these salaries work in comparisons and using percentages of cap.

Those points you raise are all valid - older, slower, etc. They would probably balance out "more points per season" stats or whatever. I gotta say if im dallas and i get a call for Robertson, I go to hang up, but if i hear "Brady" before i do........i listen haha

 

[roryjones]

I think the Sens Fans argument here would probably be that Tkachuk is more of a playoff type player. I think the points would be a little closer if BT was in Dallas.

the more i think about it, the closer this trade is. I think one on one would be possible, though if there was an add id put it on Ottawa to provide it, not Dallas.

I do agree Brady is more of a playoff type player…at least on paper cause he has very little playoff experience to show that. I don’t think putting him in Dallas would mean he is closer to Robertson production. Jason is a better shooter and very crafty with his passes. He is just slow but does make it work.

But this older argument is dumb. Brady is the same age. They are both 25. Robertson is 2 years older than stutzle. Let’s not act like Robertson is in his 30s by bringing up age. Contract is a fair point as Jason’s is up sooner but both those guys will get massive raise when their contract is up.

The only way this trade happens is if Brady asks to leave. Which has not happened yet.

 

[CowbellConray]

What does 19 year old Stutzle have to do with his value now?

I noticed how you didn't bother to add their games played either. Comical.

Go ahead and make a poll, the overwhelming majority of fans would value Stutzle way ahead of Robertson.

Stutzle is fed much better zone starts and situations compared to Roberston. Last year (23-24) was the only year Stutzle had O-zone starts close to 50% (51.5) and had a good but not great year. Roberston this year with 46.7% ES O-zone starts had 80 in 82.

Stutzle O-zone start last three years: 59.3%
Roberston O-zone start last three years: 52.3%

Stutzle has also never outscored Robertson at ES, even with an average of 7% more o-zone starts, and over 100 ES minutes a year as well.

Then you add in Roberston has selke considerations.... I would take Robertson over Stutzle pretty easily

EDIT:
Adding in their PP TOI AVG Over Last 3 years:
Stutzle: 286 Minutes a year
Roberston: 250 Minutes a year

And their ES Scoring over each of the last three years:
Stutzle ES Points: 59, 36, 47
Roberston ES Points: 68, 52, 61

 

[Barsky]

Stutzle is fed much better zone starts and situations compared to Roberston. Last year (23-24) was the only year Stutzle had O-zone starts close to 50% (51.5) and had a good but not great year. Roberston this year with 46.7% ES O-zone starts had 80 in 82.

Stutzle O-zone start last three years: 59.3%
Roberston O-zone start last three years: 52.3%

Stutzle has also never outscored Robertson at ES, even with an average of 7% more o-zone starts, and over 100 ES minutes a year as well.

Then you add in Roberston has selke considerations.... I would take Robertson over Stutzle pretty easily

EDIT:
Adding in their PP TOI AVG Over Last 3 years:
Stutzle: 286 Minutes a year
Roberston: 250 Minutes a year

And their ES Scoring over each of the last three years:
Stutzle ES Points: 59, 36, 47
Roberston ES Points: 68, 52, 61

All fair, however there's a big difference between a guy that rookied in his draft year and one that took another 3 full seasons, 2 in junior and one in the AHL b4 his rookie year

 

[CowbellConray]

All fair, however there's a big difference between a guy that rookied in his draft year and one that took another 3 full seasons, 2 in junior and one in the AHL b4 his rookie year

I can understand some of that, but Stutzle has been in the league for 5 years now. I only took data from his last three. I even gave Stutzle his year 3 year, which was his best statistical year by a pretty solid margin.

Any way you slice it, I think Roberston is a tier or two above Stutzle in ES production, which I VERY highly associate with success in the league.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I take Stutzle over Robertson. These 2 teams aren’t trade partners.

 

[Barsky]

To be fair, the landscape has changed. Both Brady and Robertson would have more than 8 M in today's NHL. With the cap going up quite a bit in the next few years, its also no doubt they would get a payday compared to what was available in terms of funds back then. A lot of these salaries work in comparisons and using percentages of cap.

Those points you raise are all valid - older, slower, etc. They would probably balance out "more points per season" stats or whatever. I gotta say if im dallas and i get a call for Robertson, I go to hang up, but if i hear "Brady" before i do........i listen haha

Brady has 3 more years of control though and Robo just one, which is a significant enough difference

 

[Barsky]

I can understand some of that, but Stutzle has been in the league for 5 years now. I only took data from his last three. I even gave Stutzle his year 3 year, which was his best statistical year by a pretty solid margin.

Any way you slice it, I think Roberston is a tier or two above Stutzle in ES production, which I VERY highly associate with success in the league.

You'll find that more people in the know would take him over Robertson all day long in a vacuum, no matter how you slice it. Always take the centre over the winger if it's close

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

I can understand some of that, but Stutzle has been in the league for 5 years now. I only took data from his last three. I even gave Stutzle his year 3 year, which was his best statistical year by a pretty solid margin.

Any way you slice it, I think Roberston is a tier or two above Stutzle in ES production, which I VERY highly associate with success in the league.

Huge difference in supporting cast.

 

[hamzarocks]

Id take Robertson over Stutzle and B.Tkachuk right now as a player.

He's a ppg player at worst who plays 17/18 minutes a game and is pretty good in the playoffs with the exception if this year where he came back from an injury at the end of the year which looks to be impacting his play.

As an asset he has 1 year and likely wants a lot of money (10M+) so he loses largely to Stutzle and Tkachuk who are in the 8M range for a number of years still.

Both of those guys are also younger (tkachuk not as much) and stutzle has untapped potential.

 

[CowbellConray]

Huge difference in supporting cast.

And a huge difference in ES TOI - in favor of Stutzle
Huge difference in zone starts - in favor of Stutzle
Huge difference in PP TOI - in favor of Stutzle

 

[CowbellConray]

You'll find that more people in the know would take him over Robertson all day long in a vacuum, no matter how you slice it. Always take the centre over the winger if it's close

Who are these people in the know? I'd love to see the list. The people in the know voted Roberston for Selke votes in two of the past three years, not Stutzle

 

[Barsky]

Who are these people in the know? I'd love to see the list. The people in the know voted Roberston for Selke votes in two of the past three years, not Stutzle

Anyone you see on TV that knows anything about the NHL, literally any of them

 

[Barsky]

And a huge difference in ES TOI - in favor of Stutzle
Huge difference in zone starts - in favor of Stutzle
Huge difference in PP TOI - in favor of Stutzle

Timmy is the play driver, Robertson doesn't drive play, that's all anyone really needs to know. Apart from again, Timmy playing the far more desirable position, while being younger, having the better pedigree and being able to skate circles around Robertson

 

[Barsky]

Id take Robertson over Stutzle and B.Tkachuk right now as a player.

He's a ppg player at worst who plays 17/18 minutes a game and is pretty good in the playoffs with the exception if this year where he came back from an injury at the end of the year which looks to be impacting his play.

As an asset he has 1 year and likely wants a lot of money (10M+) so he loses largely to Stutzle and Tkachuk who are in the 8M range for a number of years still.

Both of those guys are also younger (tkachuk not as much) and stutzle has untapped potential.

Logical take, a healthy Robertson is a great thing as long as he has someone to create for him. The salary and age factors swing the trade value in favour of either of the Ottawa pair easily though, agreed?

 

[CowbellConray]

Logical take, a healthy Robertson is a great thing as long as he has someone to create for him. The salary and age factors swing the trade value in favour of the Ottawa pair easily though, agreed?

Robertson has played all 82 games over the past three years. I feel like you are trying to create this narrative that everyone would take Stutzle over Robertson because Robertson does drive play or isn't healthy consistently. Even though Robertson's value is as a finisher, he averages more primary assists a year compared to Stutzle over the past three seasons. So this idea that Robertson can't create is just wrong - unless you are saying the bar is higher than Robertson and Stutzle and neither can create.

Robertson over the past three years:
Averages less ice time
Less PP time
Fewer O-zone starts
BUT
More points
More Goals
More primary assists
better primary/secondary assist numbers
better defensive metrics
better ES results

Stutzle has three things over Robertson:
1) Position
2) Age
3) PP ability

To me, Robertson is a better passer, better shooter, bigger, more durable, more effective in his minutes, and substantially better defensively.

How that means all of these talking heads that I still dont have reference or lists for take Stutzle over Robertson is surprising to me.

 

[Barsky]

Robertson has played all 82 games over the past three years. I feel like you are trying to create this narrative that everyone would take Stutzle over Robertson because Robertson does drive play or isn't healthy consistently. Even though Robertson's value is as a finisher, he averages more primary assists a year compared to Stutzle over the past three seasons. So this idea that Robertson can't create is just wrong - unless you are saying the bar is higher than Robertson and Stutzle and neither can create.

Robertson over the past three years:
Averages less ice time
Less PP time
Fewer O-zone starts
BUT
More points
More Goals
More primary assists
better primary/secondary assist numbers
better defensive metrics
better ES results

Stutzle has three things over Robertson:
1) Position
2) Age
3) PP ability

To me, Robertson is a better passer, better shooter, bigger, more durable, more effective in his minutes, and substantially better defensively.

How that means all of these talking heads that I still dont have reference or lists for take Stutzle over Robertson is surprising to me.

Agree to disagree then, Robertson is one of the slowest wingers in the league and that detracts from his game to a large degree in many systems. And also if we're gonna compare Brady, your size argument goes away and you're left with two big hurt guys, one who lead their team in goals and scoring in the playoffs and the other who has been a total ghost in the same playoffs