Jared Bednar & Co. Discussion Thread

The thing is, because of cap constraints and little in the way of valuable farm assets we shouldn't even consider next year as a contention year. More likely a retool. It's the following year where the cap shoots up and Cale is in his last season at 9M that we should be aiming for one last real run with this core.


Will Bednar and MacFarland last that long? We'll see. But that's why I think it makes sense to make the change now and give the new coach a year to settle in.
Gotcha - yes, that is good perspective.
 
Think it mostly stems from that interview with Prosvetov you mentioned earlier in the season, that just sounded like sour grapes, and trying to blame someone else IMO.

He had called him one of the best in the league when he played for the team.

Blamming Parkkila for the results, feels like blaming Bednar for the results IMO. As mentioned, Blackwood has had issues of inconsistency before. As well as low shot totals, which he had against Dallas.
I don't blame Parkillla at all. But it seems like you might be going out of your way to absolve Bednar of any responsibility.
 
While I disagree with most things you say, I have great respect that you support your hypotheses with cogent thoughts and analytics. But once per post, a sentence like the bolded one comes up. The Avs dominated at 5 v 5? In a Game 7, against a team without their best defenseman, the Avs went scoreless the entire game at 5 v 5. LOC got a shorty, and Mack snuck off the bench unseen on a delayed penalty to make it 6 v 5 with Nate on a breakaway. Being held scoreless is not dominating 5 v 5, regardless of what fancy stats have to say.

When the Avs were good on the PP, it was 100% of the time due to superhuman plays, not by tactics. For years, the Avs powerplay has been predictable. Maybe in the regular season they make up for the awful coaching. But in a 7 game series, coaching is waaaaayyyy more important than in the regular season, and Bednar brought nothing to the PP picnic. When the Avs were 'good' on the PK, I had to stretch my glutes every game since I was clenching my asshole so much. The PK was far too passive, allowing teams to cycle endlessly. It also made it hell for players to get a puck and clear the zone, meaning that Makar and Toews were out there way longer than they should have been - especially considering how much time they played 5 v 5.

I taught statistics at the collegiate level. Stats can be interpreted to mean just about anything you want. Sometimes, the eye-test is more valuable, and my eyes indicate that better coaching would have given the players a better chance to win. Adjusting strategy would have given the chance to win. Slightly altering the run and gun would have made the Avs less predictable and given them a better chance. So I have to ask, regarding all the fancy stats: What are your underlying assumptions? What did Bednar do which gave the Avs more high-danger chances? What part of the predictable, non-cycling offense was responsible for higher SOG?

It just strikes me as odd when the players get blamed for not scoring, yet they do not get credit for the super-human effort required to have a fancy stat advantage. Getting back to stats again, the first lecture of every stat class identifies the difference between correlation and causation. The Avs won the fancy stats race every single day that President Trump issued an executive order. That is correlation, since one had nothing to do with the other. I pee every time I drink 10 beers. THAT is causation. Just because the Avs sometimes have great fancy stats does not mean that Bednar had any direct influence.

Sorry for the late response, but wanted to address your comments.

I believe this is proof they dominated at 5v5. Even when you discount games played, they were among the best in the league at 5v5, and the Stars were among the worst. Sometimes THE worst.

Only notable 5v5 stat that Dallas was better at, was their shooting percentage. Pretty telling.

Through the First Round 5v5

Shot Attempts For / 60 mins

Avs - 1st
Dallas - 14th

Shot Attempts Against / 60 mins

Avs - 3rd
Stars - 16th (dead last)

Corsi %

Avs - 1st
Stars - 16th (dead last)

Scoring Chances For / 60 mins

Avs - 1st
Dallas - 13th

Scoring Chances Against / 60 mins

Avs - 1st
Dallas - 16th (dead last)

High Danger Chances For / 60 mins

Avs - 2nd
Dallas - 11th

High Danger Chances Against / 60 mins

Avs - 6th
Stars - 15th

High Danger Chances %

Avs - 2nd
Stars - 15th

Medium Danger Chances For / 60 mins

Avs - 1st
Stars - 13th

Medium Danger Chances Against / 60 mins

Avs - 4th
Stars - 16th (dead last)

xGF%

Avs - 4th
Stars - 15th

Shooting Percentage

Avs - 12th
Stars - 8th

IMO, not scoring more at 5v5 was a matter of execution.

I have yet to see anyone try to explain how DeBoer "outcoached" Bednar, when the Avs dominated at 5v5 according to the eye test, and the analytics.

Regarding a couple other points you made. I don't promote stats when they don't support the eye test. The eye test 100% matched the analytics IMO. In my book, the players get most of the credit, and blame for wins and losses.

If you have an explanation for how DeBoer outcoached Bednar, when his team got outplayed according to everyone at 5v5, I will listen and objectively consider it?

@Balthazar @RoyIsALegend

 
Out of surgery... came home, parked in front of boob tube.. to see Joe and Cmac presser live.

Am I still in recovery? Bennett gone. "Jared Bednar IS our head coach". Dreamin?

Can I go back to surgery?

Prediction, ain't t'all difficult. Nothing gonna change.

The definition of mealiemouthing is...

Too harsh??

Am going for the MacK game time plastic surgery reconstruction instant special tday.. aka the Bruins, Taylor Hall.. Jan 27, 2022, broke up nose.

Tho this is 10 hours after surgery and exceedingly less blood boo hoo in the pic. Finally had surgery to correct results of either pucks plural, to Tony Esposito-ish pressed masks during playing days, one shot in particular that was a fine mess, or blocking lacrosse ball shots, as a center middie, which is either super dedication or super stoopid… all three. My brother was ok with leaking in his truck on ride home since he is a goalie, a goalie coach, and figured why not…

View attachment 1031025
What a p***y, I know.

Leaving gm 7 behind now. Tho the Joe/Cmac presser enough to pisser again.
Allow me to help you my friend....

Crocodile Dundee Cocaine Scene on Make a GIF


You'll be right as rain in no time.
 
So, Freidman was right, Bednar is not getting fired... I'm not surprised, two years remaining on his deal.

And when you think about it, losing in the playoffs sucks, but having fun for the most part of an 82 games season is already a privilege, Bednar built an entertaining product.

Also expect Girard's weak ass to stay around for another year.
 
I don't blame Parkillla at all. But it seems like you might be going out of your way to absolve Bednar of any responsibility.

ET I understand you're angry right now, but I think you're forgetting in many posts, including ones with you, that I acknowledged multiple things I put responsibility on Bednar for.

I've said it's possible Bednar may be to blame for their inability to stay focused, due to overplaying his stars during the season, and have said many times over the years, I think his skating system may contribute to their chronic lack of execution on shots, because they work so hard to do everything else, they may relax when they go to shoot.

I've also said many times to you that I didn't like the line combos, just like everyone else, and he should have switched them up earlier in the series. Especially Games 2 and 3, and who knows if that would have changed the results.

I've acknowledged that coaching plays some role in the special teams, and that's a fair critique, but that it was also among the best in the NHL to end the season.

I've also said many times I understand the argument that it may be time for a new voice. I just don't believe there's anything to support Bednar was out coached in this series, and I put the blame more on the players for their lack of execution.

I'm biased, but I believe I've done a good job at supporting that argument, and listening to, and objectively considering the alternative.
 
If you have an explanation for how DeBoer outcoached Bednar, when his team got outplayed according to everyone at 5v5, I will listen and objectively consider it?
Special teams are also a part of coaching.

Did you watch the passive Avs PK sucking and the aggressive Stars PK thriving and thought it was the players' decision to do it like this?

Bednar had the much better team, he was supposed to be better 5v5.
 
Special teams are also a part of coaching.

Did you watch the passive Avs PK sucking and the aggressive Stars PK thriving and thought it was the players' decision to do it like this?

Bednar had the much better team, he was supposed to be better 5v5.

I agree, and acknowledged coaching is a part of special teams, in my last response that you didn't reply to. Which is fine you don't have to.

Also pointed out those same coaches were responsible for the PP being 1st in the NHL the last 33 games, and the PK being 4th in the NHL the last 60 games, including a 40 game stretch where they were tied for 1st?

That's why I think the players also share blame for the special teams. They just made careless mistakes, and generally just looked out of sorts, and not confident. I think it's fair to put some blame on Bednar for that as well, by not practicing more.

I also broke down all the plays on the key goals against in the losses, and how they were the result of preventable mistakes by the players, not coaching.

Sure it's part of it.

Is coaching not responsible for the PP being 1st in the NHL the last 33 games, and the PK being 4th in the NHL the last 60 games, including a 40 game stretch where they were tied for 1st?

Respectfully Balth, you're just looking for anything that supports your view on this, and discarding anything that goes against it.

I say we need to have an explanation for how and why DeBoer outcoached Bednar to believe that, other than wins and losses, and you respond with a quote from DeBoer saying he game plans for Nate and Cale and cite that as an example of outcoaching Bednar.

I say Nate had 7 goals, and Cale had a ton of scoring chances, with both having plenty of time and space to make plays, then show you a quote from DeBoer saying coaching won't play a factor, the players have to step up and make big plays, which is exactly how they lost, and you disregard it.

You say DeBoer said that, because he doesn't want to say that he knows how to counter Bednar's gameplan. I say he didn't counter the game plan when everyone agrees the Avs outplayed the Stars 5v5. Then you disregard 5v5 to focus on special teams.

You say the coaches are responsible for the special teams. I agree, and show you here that they were also responsible for it being among the best in the league to end the season. Did the coaches not show they can teach good special teams? Do the players not have any blame for being unable to execute like they did before?

Three different DeBoer teams, over a long period of time, in different circumstances, with different Avalanche teams, have edged out the Avs in the playoffs and won series. Bednar's Avs are also 8-3 against DeBoer's Stars, and 6-5 against his Knights in the regular season, and have dominated them at times, including big games like the last regular season game for home ice, and Game 4, along with other times during the series, and in the past. How does DeBoer forget how to out coach Bednar so often, if this is the reason for the loss, and not the players?

I acknowledge there are multiple things that Bednar could have done to contribute to this loss. They're just not tactical or gameplan reasons. They relate to the team's inability to stay focused.

Game 2 - Did the coach tell Manson to do some kind of flying cross check at the blueline and take himself totally out of the play on the PK to set up the pass that tied it 1-1? Did the coach tell Girard to screen his goalie and let the shot go through his feet instead of blocking it to make it 2-1? Did the coach tell Girard to turn the puck over on the clearing attempt off the glass? Did the coach tell Blackwood to stand up with the puck in his feet so they could shoot it five hole and tie it again 3-3? Did the coach tell Wood to turn the puck over at the blueline with the long OT change, and then skate into the corner after jumping over his defenseman's head for the GWG in OT?

Game 3 - Did the coach tell Blackwell to back into Nate who was stationary with his stick on the ice and fall, and the refs to fall for it to setup the tying 1-1 goal halfway through the 3rd period? Did the coach tell Val and Makar to get switched up, and Cale to try to block a shot up top on the PK where he's not comfortable, on the GWG in OT?

Game 5 - Did the coach make the puck take a crazy bounce in the opening seconds? Did the coach tell Blackwood to not seal the post and leave space for the puck to go in and make it 1-0? Did the coach make the puck go off the blocker, up in the air, and off Blackwood's back into the net to end the first period down 2-0? Did the coach tell Manson to put a weak low percentage shot on net from the goal line that could get kicked out, with him deep, and nobody covering? Did the coach tell Girard to let the puck go between his feet again, when his only job is to block the pass, on the 2 on 1 that put them down 3-0? Did the coach tell Makar not to block the door step pass to the only guy he had to cover to make it 4-2? Did the coach tell Toews to try to deflect a point shot in the D zone, instead of defending Marchment, or tying up his stick to make it 5-2?

Game 7 - Did the coach interfere with Lehky and Lindgren to give Mikko a wide open slot goal to make it 2-1? Did the coach tell Makar to break his stick, and then stick his leg out to take a penalty, instead of just staying on his feet and playing the body? Did the coach tell Lindgren to spin around in a circle and let Mikko skate in all alone for a wrap around on their PP? Did the coach tell Girard to make sure the puck goes off his skate on the wraparound to make it 2-2? Did the coach tell the ref to call Drury for a hold that goes uncalled every game in the playoffs? Did the coach tell Toews and Coyle to lackadaisically try to block the doorstep pass they've used all series on the biggest PK of the year to make it 3-2 Stars?

Did the coach tell Nelson to suck? Did the coach tell Val to stop hounding pucks? Did the coach tell Lehky to be snakebit? Did the coach tell Drouin to (likely) get injured? Did the coach tell Marty to shoot half as many pucks as he did in the regular season? Did the coach tell Coyle to start making turnovers and forget how to defend? Did the coach tell Toews and Lindgren to stop playing defense? Did the coach tell Makar to miss the net and shoot into the glove all series?

These were the biggest plays, and reasons for the losses, and none of it had to do with coaching.

Why do the players get to escape the blame for this loss, when they didn't lose because they got outplayed, they lost because they didn't make the big plays in big moments offensively, and made too many mistakes in big moments defensively?
 
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ET I understand you're angry right now, but I think you're forgetting in many posts, including ones with you, that I acknowledged multiple things I put responsibility on Bednar for.

I've said it's possible Bednar may be to blame for their inability to stay focused, due to overplaying his stars during the season, and have said many times over the years, I think his skating system may contribute to their chronic lack of execution on shots, because they work so hard to do everything else, they may relax when they go to shoot.

I've also said many times to you that I didn't like the line combos, just like everyone else, and he should have switched them up earlier in the series. Especially Games 2 and 3, and who knows if that would have changed the results.

I've acknowledged that coaching plays some role in the special teams, and that's a fair critique, but that it was also among the best in the NHL to end the season.

I've also said many times I understand the argument that it may be time for a new voice. I just don't believe there's anything to support Bednar was out coached in this series, and I put the blame more on the players for their lack of execution.

I'm biased, but I believe I've done a good job at supporting that argument, and listening to, and objectively considering the alternative.
If I'm coming across as angry, that's not my intent. I'm not angry, pissed or even upset. This is bitterness. Bitterness that we just threw a complete year away and learned nothing from it.

We're just going to roll it back and fall on our faces again. If the only or biggest lesson from 2024-25 is that the players failed to execute on special teams...
 
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Sorry for the late response, but wanted to address your comments.

I believe this is proof they dominated at 5v5. Even when you discount games played, they were among the best in the league at 5v5, and the Stars were among the worst. Sometimes THE worst.

Only notable 5v5 stat that Dallas was better at, was their shooting percentage. Pretty telling.

Through the First Round 5v5

Shot Attempts For / 60 mins

Avs - 1st
Dallas - 14th

Shot Attempts Against / 60 mins

Avs - 3rd
Stars - 16th (dead last)

Corsi %

Avs - 1st
Stars - 16th (dead last)

Scoring Chances For / 60 mins

Avs - 1st
Dallas - 13th

Scoring Chances Against / 60 mins

Avs - 1st
Dallas - 16th (dead last)

High Danger Chances For / 60 mins

Avs - 2nd
Dallas - 11th

High Danger Chances Against / 60 mins

Avs - 6th
Stars - 15th

High Danger Chances %

Avs - 2nd
Stars - 15th

Medium Danger Chances For / 60 mins

Avs - 1st
Stars - 13th

Medium Danger Chances Against / 60 mins

Avs - 4th
Stars - 16th (dead last)

xGF%

Avs - 4th
Stars - 15th

Shooting Percentage

Avs - 12th
Stars - 8th

IMO, not scoring more at 5v5 was a matter of execution.

I have yet to see anyone try to explain how DeBoer "outcoached" Bednar, when the Avs dominated at 5v5 according to the eye test, and the analytics.

Regarding a couple other points you made. I don't promote stats when they don't support the eye test. The eye test 100% matched the analytics IMO. In my book, the players get most of the credit, and blame for wins and losses.

If you have an explanation for how DeBoer outcoached Bednar, when his team got outplayed according to everyone at 5v5, I will listen and objectively consider it?

@Balthazar @RoyIsALegend


There’s no point continuing this conversation.

You keep posting 5v5 numbers.

“We” keep posting the fact that DeBoer wins 4 games, Bednar does not. We keep posting that it’s 4 times now with 3 different teams. We keep posting that our star players look like shit against him and he openly says their entire game plan is around 8/29.

There’s no way to make either side budge on this. The series is over. There’s no more games to be played.

You keep believing Bednar didn’t get outcoached. I will keep believing the opposite.

Don’t tag me in this discussion anymore, please. This isn’t going anywhere.
 
Sorry for the late response, but wanted to address your comments.

I believe this is proof they dominated at 5v5. Even when you discount games played, they were among the best in the league at 5v5, and the Stars were among the worst. Sometimes THE worst.

Only notable 5v5 stat that Dallas was better at, was their shooting percentage. Pretty telling.

Through the First Round 5v5

Shot Attempts For / 60 mins

Avs - 1st
Dallas - 14th

Shot Attempts Against / 60 mins

Avs - 3rd
Stars - 16th (dead last)

Corsi %

Avs - 1st
Stars - 16th (dead last)

Scoring Chances For / 60 mins

Avs - 1st
Dallas - 13th

Scoring Chances Against / 60 mins

Avs - 1st
Dallas - 16th (dead last)

High Danger Chances For / 60 mins

Avs - 2nd
Dallas - 11th

High Danger Chances Against / 60 mins

Avs - 6th
Stars - 15th

High Danger Chances %

Avs - 2nd
Stars - 15th

Medium Danger Chances For / 60 mins

Avs - 1st
Stars - 13th

Medium Danger Chances Against / 60 mins

Avs - 4th
Stars - 16th (dead last)

xGF%

Avs - 4th
Stars - 15th

Shooting Percentage

Avs - 12th
Stars - 8th

IMO, not scoring more at 5v5 was a matter of execution.

I have yet to see anyone try to explain how DeBoer "outcoached" Bednar, when the Avs dominated at 5v5 according to the eye test, and the analytics.

Regarding a couple other points you made. I don't promote stats when they don't support the eye test. The eye test 100% matched the analytics IMO. In my book, the players get most of the credit, and blame for wins and losses.

If you have an explanation for how DeBoer outcoached Bednar, when his team got outplayed according to everyone at 5v5, I will listen and objectively consider it?

@Balthazar @RoyIsALegend

Finally someone talking sense. Not sure why its so hard to accept that Dallas could beat us simply due to superior shooting percentage, which might have been result of having more clinical finishers (as pointed out in the trade thread) as much as a random chance (PDO and stuff).

But no, this has to Bednar and shit coaching! Should have told players to aim better i guess.
 
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There’s no point continuing this conversation.

You keep posting 5v5 numbers.

“We” keep posting the fact that DeBoer wins 4 games, Bednar does not. We keep posting that it’s 4 times now with 3 different teams. We keep posting that our star players look like shit against him and he openly says their entire game plan is around 8/29.

There’s no way to make either side budge on this. The series is over. There’s no more games to be played.

You keep believing Bednar didn’t get outcoached. I will keep believing the opposite.

Don’t tag me in this discussion anymore, please. This isn’t going anywhere.

This is the first time I've tagged you, and it's because you keep making sarcastic posts about people who don't think DeBoer outcoached Bednar, and never explain how he did so, when it's pointed out his team got completed dominated 5v5.

You're free to post however you like, just like I am. I won't tag you, but I will show how this narrative is wrong IMO, just like the one I'm about to do on how DeBoer supposedly shut down Makar.
 
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This is the first time I've tagged you, and it's because you keep making sarcastic posts about people who don't think DeBoer outcoached Bednar, and never explain how he did so, when it's pointed out his team got completed dominated 5v5.

You're free to post however you like, just like I am. I won't tag you, but I will show how this narrative is wrong IMO, just like the one I'm about to do on how DeBoer supposedly shut down Makar.

Yeah, we just got unlucky again.

Damn luck.
 
Makar led all defenseman in the first round with 26 shots overall and 17 at 5v5 in 7 games.

He led all defenseman in individual corsi shot attempts with 50. Next closest was Bouchard with 37.

His Corsi was 61.44% at 5v5. His xGF% was 61.06%

He was tied for 2nd in individual High Danger Chances among defenseman.

He led defenseman in individual scoring chances for with 20. Almost twice as many as 2nd place with 11.

There were 95 Avs scoring chances with him on the ice 5v5 versus 55 against.

There were 38 Avs High Danger Chances with him on the ice 5v5 versus 25 against.

He missed the net regularly and had many uncharacteristically weak wrist shots on net.

Despite all the shots, and chances, he had 1 goal on an empty net in Game 6.

He was 39th in shooting shooting percentage at 3.8%, the worst of his career, playoffs or regular season.

I don't see how Makar was shut down in any way, or that DeBoer did anything to make him miss the net, or take weak wrist shots.
 
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Sorry for the late response, but wanted to address your comments.

I believe this is proof they dominated at 5v5. Even when you discount games played, they were among the best in the league at 5v5, and the Stars were among the worst. Sometimes THE worst.

Only notable 5v5 stat that Dallas was better at, was their shooting percentage. Pretty telling.

Through the First Round 5v5

Shot Attempts For / 60 mins

Avs - 1st
Dallas - 14th

Shot Attempts Against / 60 mins

Avs - 3rd
Stars - 16th (dead last)

Corsi %

Avs - 1st
Stars - 16th (dead last)

Scoring Chances For / 60 mins

Avs - 1st
Dallas - 13th

Scoring Chances Against / 60 mins

Avs - 1st
Dallas - 16th (dead last)

High Danger Chances For / 60 mins

Avs - 2nd
Dallas - 11th

High Danger Chances Against / 60 mins

Avs - 6th
Stars - 15th

High Danger Chances %

Avs - 2nd
Stars - 15th

Medium Danger Chances For / 60 mins

Avs - 1st
Stars - 13th

Medium Danger Chances Against / 60 mins

Avs - 4th
Stars - 16th (dead last)

xGF%

Avs - 4th
Stars - 15th

Shooting Percentage

Avs - 12th
Stars - 8th

IMO, not scoring more at 5v5 was a matter of execution.

I have yet to see anyone try to explain how DeBoer "outcoached" Bednar, when the Avs dominated at 5v5 according to the eye test, and the analytics.

Regarding a couple other points you made. I don't promote stats when they don't support the eye test. The eye test 100% matched the analytics IMO. In my book, the players get most of the credit, and blame for wins and losses.

If you have an explanation for how DeBoer outcoached Bednar, when his team got outplayed according to everyone at 5v5, I will listen and objectively consider it?

@Balthazar @RoyIsALegend

In a vacuum, you're right. Oettinger outcoached Bednar. Avs finish some more chances and they win.

But Bednar should be changed for some of the more immeasurable things. He's slow to make adjustments, if at all. He will just keep doing the same thing over and over. It's insanity.

If the players aren't executing, or lacking intensity, it falls on the coach. That was the bottom line reason we didn't win. The players refuse to play playoff style hockey - throw it in front,, crash the net, get bounces, hit people, clog up the middle of the ice. The Stars do that. Bednar's teams don't. It's a mentality. I'm not saying the players aren't to blame here, but you're not trading anyone from the core so he's the logical change.

Some elite skill players were able to expose Dallas and get good chances, but time and time again, Deboer is able to clog up Bednar's system and keep players to the outside. Very little penetration. Just because there's lots of nice stats doesn't mean that Deboer didn't shut down Bednar. The Stars imposed their style on the Avs, not vice-versa.

Yes, a really good goalie helped, but Oettinger wasn't unbeatable, just made huge saves at the right time. They iced Petrovic/Ceci/Lybuskin for the entire game over 7 games. There's no way that should stop Cale/Nate/etc. That's a coaching thing.
 
Yeah, nobody's ever shot the puck poorly before, or lost for any reason other than coaching.

Bednar did some kind of quantum leap into Cale's body and made him shoot like an ECHL enforcer all series.

Damn luck.
You think Cale played this way on his own; we believe the main reason he played like this is Peter DeBoer (because history).

I think it's time to stop now, neither side is going to budge.
 
You think Cale played this way on his own; we believe the main reason he played like this is Peter DeBoer (because history).

I think it's time to stop now, neither side is going to budge.

You're free to believe whatever you want.

But it's literally impossible for Cale to have led all defenseman in individual shots, and scoring chances, be 2nd in high danger chances, and have good corsi and xGF% numbers, if DeBoer shut him down.

I don't know why I have to stop bringing up the things that disprove the argument that you guys keep making?

You're free to stop saying DeBoer outcoached Bednar, but I doubt that happens. SO it's not really fair to ask me to stop commenting on it.
 
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I wanted to fire Bednar if we didn’t win this series or go far in this years’ playoffs. I thought we had good enough pieces.

However I do think it is the right move,
since we fired Bennett, to keep Bednar on.

Bennett sucks. I’m surprised they kept him on for so long.

I think letting him go could make a huge difference going forward.
 
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