Jared Bednar & Co. Discussion Thread
- Thread starter Pokecheque
- Start date
Last night was a really strong team effort win, and that includes Bednar.
Some people who are vehemently against pretty much anything Bednar does have tried to look to the Avs play between 1st and 2nd periods as an example of why he's been a poor coach.
Well using that same logic(Which is flawed anyway IMO), he clearly outclassed Sullivan last night. We put a pounding on the Pens in the 2nd period from start to finish after a pretty average 1st period. And then in the 3rd period played with a lead almost to perfection despite giving up an unlucky bounce goal very early in the 3rd period. That goal could have given the Avs every excuse in the book to go full on turtle but they really didn't. Bednar had them playing smart defensive team hockey but also still chasing down loose pucks and trying to drive the play into the offensive zone when the opportunity presented itself.
I'm a firm believer that the disaster that was last year, was a result of a piss poor roster more so then anything else. I dont necessarily think Bednar is an elite coach at the level of a Babcock/Trotz? I think it's true that coaches generally have a short shelf life in the NHL except for the truly elite. But I dont think making a change from Bednar to someone like Sutter, or AV, or anyone else would have any sort of major impact on this team standings wise or especially from a development standpoint. If there's one thing I think Bednar is doing a tremendous job with, it's been the way he's handled all the young kids and seems to be pushing the buttons for each player differently, but getting a lot out of almost all of them. Even Jost the last couple of games is looking much more confident and NHL caliber.
Some people who are vehemently against pretty much anything Bednar does have tried to look to the Avs play between 1st and 2nd periods as an example of why he's been a poor coach.
Well using that same logic(Which is flawed anyway IMO), he clearly outclassed Sullivan last night. We put a pounding on the Pens in the 2nd period from start to finish after a pretty average 1st period. And then in the 3rd period played with a lead almost to perfection despite giving up an unlucky bounce goal very early in the 3rd period. That goal could have given the Avs every excuse in the book to go full on turtle but they really didn't. Bednar had them playing smart defensive team hockey but also still chasing down loose pucks and trying to drive the play into the offensive zone when the opportunity presented itself.
I'm a firm believer that the disaster that was last year, was a result of a piss poor roster more so then anything else. I dont necessarily think Bednar is an elite coach at the level of a Babcock/Trotz? I think it's true that coaches generally have a short shelf life in the NHL except for the truly elite. But I dont think making a change from Bednar to someone like Sutter, or AV, or anyone else would have any sort of major impact on this team standings wise or especially from a development standpoint. If there's one thing I think Bednar is doing a tremendous job with, it's been the way he's handled all the young kids and seems to be pushing the buttons for each player differently, but getting a lot out of almost all of them. Even Jost the last couple of games is looking much more confident and NHL caliber.
Bender
I'll eat pancakes on his grave!
- Sep 25, 2002
- 18,380
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Having a quick look at that guy's twitter page, what the hell is that even supposed to prove?
According to these graphs :
Rangers are consistently below average - yet are 7 games over .500
Senators actually have better stats than the Rangers - they stink this year and are 4 games below .500 [at that point, when stats show 2 teams with pretty much the same graph where there is such a discrepancy between where they are in the standings - I'm out...no more time wasting for me LOL]
Carolina dominate these stats - (last year too if I recall) and are only a .500 team
Habs have a great graph yet are barely a .500 team (and need Carey Price to be Carey Price not to fall further in the standings)
Arizona & Minnesota have roughly the same graph...one team is 5 games above .500 and in a playoff spot the other has 7 wins this year and firmly in last place in the league.
That should tell you all you need to know...There are no shortcuts, you can't make an analysis by looking at a graph instead of actually watching the games.
Cousin Eddie
You Serious Clark?
- Nov 3, 2006
- 40,466
- 38,439
Let's not forget the near comeback against Tampa either.
What I will give Bednar credit on is opening things up a bit against Pit. Even that I don't know how much of it is him though.
I'm not sure saying he schooled Sullivan really fits what happened lol.
I'm not sure saying he schooled Sullivan really fits what happened lol.
See, I don't know how you can draw that conclusion unless you took a VERY cursory look at his Twitter feed. He graphs all kinds of data--not just shot metrics--it just so happens he does that particular recurring segment where he does a Corsi progression chart for all 31 teams. He knows as well as anyone in the analytics crowd that those charts don't say anything about actual scoring chances (which he does try to put in visual form as well), nor does it factor in goaltending, which obviously is the big difference between a team like the Rangers and a team like the Sens. If anything, the analytics crowd is moving on from pure possession metrics and looking at mining data at a deeper level. Many of the high-end guys don't really look much at Corsi/Fenwick. They are also critical of their own and others' work. Manny Elk obviously does a ton or work on his Corsica site that many reputable guys around the game utilize, but they too are not completely sold on xGF%.
And again, I don't know why you and everyone else think the analytics people don't watch the games or think the data is a substitute. They know it's not, the data is simply added insight that may corroborate or refute what the eye test sees. Many of them HAVE to watch the games in order to track them.
I think it's always interesting to see these, because, yes, pure possession in terms of shot counts don't matter a ton. If your goaltending isn't up to snuff or you don't have a very dynamic offense (see: Habs) then throwing the puck on net a lot really doesn't mean much. Ironically, it looks like the Avs' uptick in possession actually coincided with their worst stretch of the season. Go figure. While it's good to be on the positive side of the shot count, it's obviously not the primary ingredient to success.
But I also don't think the analytics crowd is perfect. One bold statement many of them have backed off of in recent years is that a team will regress or progress depending on their possession numbers. No one reputable is really saying the Habs are gonna turn it around, nor are they saying the Devils are due for an epic collapse. Sometimes riding hot goaltending and high shooting percentages last the entire year, sometimes even longer. Sometimes some players who are lousy at possession just know where to put the puck (Marty St. Louis in his final years in TB/NY was a prime example of this).
This is pure speculation on my part, but we know for a fact the team practiced 4-on-4 extensively following the loss to Tampa. I can't help but think that mentality trickled down a little, skating with the puck and using their speed to create chances instead of just standing around and over-passing it.
I can't say it was a flat-out superior coaching job by Bednar, but TBH it's difficult at times to say one coach completely outcoached the other guy. I can only think of a couple instances (Vigneault on Sacco, Babcock on Roy) where that definitely happened. I think right now the Pens are just kind of a slow team.
- Feb 7, 2012
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I'm especially tough on Bednar because of his player usage. What I mean by that:
X HATING Kerfoot on a 4th line
X Sodo deserves more time and up lines
X Yakupov needs much more ice time, and it frustrates me that he seems to be the go to guy for Bednars bad books
X I feel he's not helping Ghettos development
BUT: I literally think we can beat absolutely any team on our day now....something I've not felt for a long time.
This team is going places.
For that reason, my criticisms of Bednar means I'm basically just talking out of my bum, and have no idea.
X HATING Kerfoot on a 4th line
X Sodo deserves more time and up lines
X Yakupov needs much more ice time, and it frustrates me that he seems to be the go to guy for Bednars bad books
X I feel he's not helping Ghettos development
BUT: I literally think we can beat absolutely any team on our day now....something I've not felt for a long time.
This team is going places.
For that reason, my criticisms of Bednar means I'm basically just talking out of my bum, and have no idea.
I know this does not apply to all. However, some of them are completely comfortable arguing or commenting definitively on a team or teams they haven't watched. I've seen it casually and openly admitted by top writers in their articles at times. I'm sorry but that crowd earned that reputation, and continues to earn it at times.
Yes, I agree some of them can be smug assholes but that doesn’t mean the numbers are. Again, Tierney graphs a lot of data, not just shot metrics, and like any stat it needs to be taken in context.
I agree with you there. I follow him as well as hes one of the better ones. Even he stretches my patience at times.
The idea that they don't deserve some of the criticism they get at times just rubbed me the wrong way.
I'll take the extreme numbers guys over the extreme anti-numbers guys any day of the week.
On a side note, I don't know if it was practicing 4-on-4 that flipped the switch but the team is playing MUCH better with the puck than they were previously. I see a lot more player movement, both with and without the puck, in the attacking zone. Very encouraging to see.
On a side note, I don't know if it was practicing 4-on-4 that flipped the switch but the team is playing MUCH better with the puck than they were previously. I see a lot more player movement, both with and without the puck, in the attacking zone. Very encouraging to see.
expatriatedtexan
Illegitimati non carborundum
- Aug 17, 2005
- 21,075
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I wonder what Joe Sacco would've done with a team that showed up to play at game time. Part of that might have been a terrible mis-match of vets to youngsters. I'll probably never know to what extent a coach can drive a team...especially in an 82 game grind vs a short tournament. I just know that the AVs have had a problem for many years with over- passing and being too cute and and not making good plays to get the puck out of their own zone. It's was there when we won cups....we just had the skill to overcome it. Not sure it matters who the coach is. The results are up this year, but they've also been up under certain years with Sacco, Grannato and Roy too.
I think over-passing is the result of laziness/confidence. Instead of skating the puck and creating offense by crashing the net (i.e., ugly goals) they try highlight-reel bullshit to create the perfect play to beat the goalie instead of throwing everything possible at him and creating secondary chances. Happens with the best teams and the worst teams, but I think it happens more often with younger squads.
As for Sacco, I'm kinda surprised he hasn't worked his way back up and into a head coaching position. He was given some really lousy teams to work with, though I really wasn't impressed with him as a coach overall, especially once Liles left town and the offense completely tanked.
Then again, I never thought I'd see Bruce Cassidy or Mike Sullivan ever coach again after how badly they flamed out beforehand and look where we are. Took both of them a loooooooong time though.
expatriatedtexan
Illegitimati non carborundum
- Aug 17, 2005
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Which
Which I think has been a problem going back to the Sakic, Forsberg days. That is the AVs culture. Highlight, hi-talent. Problem is we don't have the talent to pull that off and haven't since 2001. Hell, we didn't even have the talent to pull it off when those guys were playing for us because we should've had a least one more cup during the late 90s to early 00s.
Well, I'll say this in Bednar's defense:
I'm not sure where else he could have put Kerfoot if he was committed to keeping the MacKinnon and Soderberg lines together.
Soderberg may be listed as the 3rd line C but we all know that's the 2nd line.
As for the handling of Yak and Ghetto, I'll agree putting them on the 4th line together was a poor decision, but that line with them and Toninato actually worked better than expected. Both were running pretty cold at that point so I'm not sure many other coaches wouldn't have done the same. Both players present unique challenges to a coach--both have huge, HUGE gaps in their respective games, but they also aren't good enough defensively to be stuck on a grinder line either. I suppose Bednar finally found a place for him with Wilson and Compher so there's that. But Yak is still a challenge. I really don't think he'll be in the NHL next season.
This is why I think the biggest mistake he's making is insisting that Soderberg and Comeau be joined at the hip. At times he's bumped Nieto off there but simply refuses to decouple the other two, making the remaining two lines a constantly shifting series of leftovers. I really think if he at least tried to use Soda as a true 2C with a couple of the rookies and Comeau on a 3rd/4th line with less experienced players, there'd immediately be more stability in the lineup. Right now he's got six vets together and all the kids on separate lines. It's a mistake and I'm not sure why he's so reluctant to try something seeing as how they haven't really put anything together for longer than 2-3 games all season long.
McMetal
Writer of Wrongs
I don't really have a problem with the usage of Soderberg this year, nor his attachment to Comeau, who he plays very well with.
The real problem is that no matter what line combinations you throw together, you have too many skill players in the lineup and only a couple true bottom sixers. The roster is very much in a transition phase, and it's clearly not built for any kind of playoff success (intentionally, I would argue. Who expected .500 this year, much less postseason?). Before they go into compete mode, they need to figure out who on the roster is going to stay in the top six long term, and sell some of the rest so we can actually have a top 9 without this "four lines that look like scoring lines" situation. That's probably why the roster is the way it is, so they can use this year to shake out their future correspondence and figure out what pieces are expendable.
Well, they're still suffering from years of organizational indifference when it came to the acquisition/development of defensive and two-way forwards. Right now the (potentially) best defensive forwards are a work in progress. Jost, Toninato, and Compher will someday be those guys (hopefully) you send to shut down the opposition's best forwards. Right now I think that role falls to guys like Soda and Comeau, and while they're good, they're interim measures.
I get that Comeau and Soderberg have played well together to start the year but I think it's trailed off in recent weeks, especially the play of Nieto, who IMO is playing way over his head. For some reason Bednar has become very rigid with those two lines, like he's afraid the bottom will fall out again if he messes with them. I think he should keep that top line together but I really don't think you're losing much breaking up that other line. Keep in mind that was a 4th line at one point.
McMetal
Writer of Wrongs
I agree with pretty much all of that. I still like Soderberg and Comeau together, but Nieto is definitely dragging that whole line down offensively, and I would love to see another player tried on that left wing. Nieto IMO is not the reason that line works, so replacing him with somebody with some offensive kick might balance that line out at ES and make it more useful.
It is kinda crazy that one of Bednar's most aggravating things that he did last season (the blender) just isn't happening with the Soda line. Swap Nieto out for almost any other player and I think that line works really well.
To me, one of the biggest positive changes in Bednar this season is that he isn't OVER coaching. He isn't trying to always do too much and be too smart. So while Nieto on that line is irritating, I'll take that over him swapping the line 15 times a game.
To me, one of the biggest positive changes in Bednar this season is that he isn't OVER coaching. He isn't trying to always do too much and be too smart. So while Nieto on that line is irritating, I'll take that over him swapping the line 15 times a game.
dahrougem2
Registered User
It's still happening with the defence, and I don't think it's good to have a bunch of different pairings throughout games and throughout a season jumbled together. Maybe that is Pratt's doing.
I think it is Bednar at least to an extent... I'm hoping that calms down when running 6D instead of 7...
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