Value of: Jake Guetzel next contract

[chethejet]

He is not quite what he was but hard to get a handle on his vale without Sid. Interesting to see if Dubas does extend him. Letting bidding begin since there is not many top LW's in FA this coming off season.

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[Mrfenn92]

7x$7.75

 

[centipede2233]

9-9.5 mil caphit

7x$7.75

Your too low on the AAV

 

[Mrfenn92]

9-9.5 mil caphit


Your too low on the AAV

Could be

 

[Golden_Jet]

8x8 at the most, that takes him through 37.

 

[centipede2233]

Kyle dubas gave marner 10.3 mil caphit coming out of his ELC…and he isn’t a 40 goal scorer…Guentzel on his 3rd contract is getting north of 9 mil, I promise. Have you people not followed dubas’s tenure in Toronto?

 

[BLNY]

9-9.5 mil caphit


Your too low on the AAV

They could take all of Carter's cap hit and give it to Jake, but I get the feeling the only contract they want above Sid's is Karlsson's. Jake could bolt, but I think he stays and signs for 8x8.

 

[theVladiator]

9-9.5 mil caphit

Your too low on the AAV

I think you are a bit high. Guentzel is not quite same layer as Gaudreau or Rantanen. My guess is 8-8.5M per, somewhere between Fiala and Forsberg.

EDIT: meant to say your guess for the cap hit is high. Left my original wording in place as I find its apparent immaturity amusing.

 

[Djp]

What Dumbas will do vs others GMs will do?

he’s a byproduct of the centers he’s played with. When they retire his stats will drop

 

[molon labe]

He's a stud. We love him. Honestly doesn't matter much.

If I'm guessing - it's coming from him really just over-performing compared to his peers than being undervalued. I think we were all ecstatic with his last deal - but this next one starts at age 29 (really age 30 since he's October birthday) and will depend heavily on term.

I'm going to guess 8 x 8

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

9-9.5 mil caphit


Your too low on the AAV

Look at how far below market Letang, Malkin, and Rust signed for. Bet that salary range is closer than yours.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

They could take all of Carter's cap hit and give it to Jake, but I get the feeling the only contract they want above Sid's is Karlsson's. Jake could bolt, but I think he stays and signs for 8x8.

If I'm Dubas (and I'm not) there is very little chance I'm committing to Guetzel for 8 years. The Pens are constructed to give Sid & Co. the best chance for the next 2-3 years. If it takes 8 years for Guetzel to sign - I would pass. I'd rather go high on the AAV for that timeframe and if that doesn't work for Jake - I'd take the $'s and try to find a replacement.

 

[SEALBound]

What Dumbas will do vs others GMs will do?

he’s a byproduct of the centers he’s played with. When they retire his stats will drop

Show me a 40g scorer that isn't a product of the other players they play with. Elite goal scorers usually play with above-average players. Put them with scrubs and all their stat will drop. That said, consistent 40g production is hard to do regardless of your center. Plenty of good players have played with good centers that haven't done that, so be careful not to undersell or undercut Guentzel's accomplishments.

In Jake's case, if Sid and Geno retire in 4 years, the Penguins aren't going to care about his drop in stats at that point.

I see a 7yr x $8.5mil deal being fair for both sides.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm hoping for something like 5 years at $8 million a year. I really don't want to go crazy term with him. The Penguins are going to suck in the near future but you'd hope they'd be good again quickly. I don't want the last year or two of Guentzel at $8 million being right when the Penguins are ready to be a playoff team again.

 

[Djp]

Show me a 40g scorer that isn't a product of the other players they play with. Elite goal scorers usually play with above-average players. Put them with scrubs and all their stat will drop. That said, consistent 40g production is hard to do regardless of your center. Plenty of good players have played with good centers that haven't done that, so be careful not to undersell or undercut Guentzel's accomplishments.

In Jake's case, if Sid and Geno retire in 4 years, the Penguins aren't going to care about his drop in stats at that point.

I see a 7yr x $8.5mil deal being fair for both sides.

it’s about situations they are put in….

James Neal is one example ehere he was about ppg in Pittsburg turn dropped off.

another example is Wayne Simmonds. His 5x5 ststes were similar with Philly after factoring in opportunities snd playing on top line vs bottom 6. Big boost in points came from PP time.

as a UFA he is High risk

 

[Zirakzigil]

8x8 is the max I am willing to go. If he wants a higher AAV than hes getting less years.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

What Dumbas will do vs others GMs will do?

he’s a byproduct of the centers he’s played with. When they retire his stats will drop

This sells Guentzel short. Yes, he's more of a complimentary winger, but he's a guy who will produce as long as he's got an elite center creating chances for him.

In other words, as long as you're not signing him to be your top line's best player, he'll still produce as long as you already have a high-end center to play with him.

Not many players can simply score 40 goals just as long as they have Crosby next to them.

 

[Gurglesons]

I think you are a bit high. Guentzel is not quite same layer as Gaudreau or Rantanen. My guess is 8-8.5M per, somewhere between Fiala and Forsberg.

EDIT: meant to say your guess for the cap hit is high. Left my original wording in place as I find its apparent immaturity amusing.

Rantanen and Gaudreau were signed in much lesser cap environments.

 

[chethejet]

Man lots of high numbers and term. Next year if cap is at 87.5, There are lots of teams with cap space as if many teams just planned to have cap space. If he has a good year and stays healthy, Pens may have little choice here. With only a couple high end LW's on the FA market next year, Jake will command a pretty big number.

 

[Gurglesons]

it’s about situations they are put in….

James Neal is one example ehere he was about ppg in Pittsburg turn dropped off.

another example is Wayne Simmonds. His 5x5 ststes were similar with Philly after factoring in opportunities snd playing on top line vs bottom 6. Big boost in points came from PP time.

as a UFA he is High risk

Jake's production is largely 5v5 and he sucks on the powerplay tho.

 

[Jacob]

Kyle dubas gave marner 10.3 mil caphit coming out of his ELC…and he isn’t a 40 goal scorer…Guentzel on his 3rd contract is getting north of 9 mil, I promise. Have you people not followed dubas’s tenure in Toronto?

Toronto is an expensive city to live in and they don't win.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

I'm hoping for something like 5 years at $8 million a year. I really don't want to go crazy term with him. The Penguins are going to suck in the near future but you'd hope they'd be good again quickly. I don't want the last year or two of Guentzel at $8 million being right when the Penguins are ready to be a playoff team again.

I would think we'd be trading Guentzel once it's time to tank for our next generational center (and accompanying nearly-generational player).