TSN: Jake Gardiner or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Advanced Stats

Oscar Peterson

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The main problem is, is I don't want Gardiner on the ice in the Leafs d-zone. He cannot defend. I don't care how great of a skater he is. Look at when Larry Murphy was a Leaf - he at least put up points, but was a terrible d-man defensively.

Seriously, for a guy he is no longer a rookie, he makes too many rookie/boneheaded mistakes.

And I think comparisons to Hutchison are fair. Do you want Hutchison pitching in a key game down the road? I don't, no fan who wants the Jays to win would want him pitching. Same as having Gardiner defend a lead with the puck in the Leafs zone. It's a disaster waiting to happen.

Again, I want him to be good, and succeed, thus the Leafs improving. How many chances is the guy supposed to get though. He couldn't learn from a guy like Carlyle, who was a Norris trophy winning defenseman in the same league.
Even if this wasn't exaggerated, the point is that with Gardiner on the puck is less likely to be in the defensive zone in the first place. A guy like Roman Polak might be better at doing those "defensive things" (which I don't agree with personally) but if he's defending all the time because he can't effectively transition to the offensive zone and maintain pressure on he will end up getting scored on more (which he does).
 

Nithoniniel

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Feel free to provide a link to those studies, because I don't even know what data you would use to measure "ability".

That was perhaps not well formulated.

Anyway. No offense, Freudian, but all the material is out there to look up and read. If you want to get to know why statisticians develop and use the numbers they do, and what they indicate and how they correlate with each other, then feel free to check it up. If you really want to learn the why of it all, and not just use what those that have done the work says you should, then there's really no way around it than to start reading everything that is available. That's what I did.

Even if this wasn't exaggerated, the point is that with Gardiner on the puck is less likely to be in the defensive zone in the first place. A guy like Roman Polak might be better at doing those "defensive things" (which I don't agree with personally) but if he's defending all the time because he can't effectively transition to the offensive zone and maintain pressure on he will end up getting scored on more (which he does).

Yeah. In essence, the best thing for your defense is not being good in your own zone, it's making sure you are not there. Preferably you do both though. I don't know how many of the best coaches and hockey minds that we have today needs to say pretty much exactly that before people start accepting it. You can be perfection in your positioning, stick work, puck separation, gap control etc but it won't matter if you can't get the puck out. It'll just come back at you until they score.
 

91Kadri91*

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I don't think anyone disputes Gardiner has slightly better numbers than the other Leafs defenders. He does. It's just that being best on the Leafs doesn't tell us much about how good he is compared to the rest of the league, since the Leafs have been such a tire fire defensively the last few years.

Like I said earlier, being the best of the worst doesn't necessarily mean you are good. Nor does it mean you are bad. It's rather pointless using relative stats to compare players because the indexes are so wildly different.

Slightly? Gardiner was the only Leafs defenseman (among defensemen who played exclusively for the Leafs organization last season) with a GAR above 0, and his GAR was 7.41; that ranks 21st among defensemen... league-wide.

Gardiner had a raw GA60 of 2.15 (2012-15) while the Leafs (over the same span of time) had a GA60 of 2.56 (28th in the league). He had a raw CA60 (2012-15) of 57.56, while the Leafs had a CA60 of 63.7 (30th in the league). He had a raw FA60 (2012-15) of 45.34, while the Leafs had an FA60 of 48.0 (30th in the league). His scoring chance numbers were even more impressive.
 

91Kadri91*

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The main problem is, is I don't want Gardiner on the ice in the Leafs d-zone. He cannot defend. I don't care how great of a skater he is. Look at when Larry Murphy was a Leaf - he at least put up points, but was a terrible d-man defensively.

Seriously, for a guy he is no longer a rookie, he makes too many rookie/boneheaded mistakes.

And I think comparisons to Hutchison are fair. Do you want Hutchison pitching in a key game down the road? I don't, no fan who wants the Jays to win would want him pitching. Same as having Gardiner defend a lead with the puck in the Leafs zone. It's a disaster waiting to happen.

Again, I want him to be good, and succeed, thus the Leafs improving. How many chances is the guy supposed to get though. He couldn't learn from a guy like Carlyle, who was a Norris trophy winning defenseman in the same league.

You're saying absolutely nothing of substance. Everything you've said has been refuted on countless occasions with quantifiable evidence. You're just regurgitating the same ****, and expecting that, miraculously, it will become logical; it won't.

Gardiner has performed better than any other Leafs defenseman in 'Up By 1' score situations over the last three seasons, in terms of both GA60 (2.37), and overall GF% (50.0).
 

Kubus

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For all the people that are complaining about Gardiner, what were your expectations? What is it you expected from him and what do you see him as?
 

Duke Silver

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His word is the be all and end all suddenly? Reality, it happens.

I'll take a Jack Adams-winning coach's word over yours any day, Baby.

He makes a great point that gets missed around here too often: that a defenceman's value isn't solely how he battles down low in the corners of his own zone; but also how his decisions and actions lead to not having to defend at all. The numbers in this article support the argument that Gardiner's game lends well to this philosophy.

Wouldn't you agree with that? Seems pretty logical to me.

Feel free to poke holes in Tippett's comments.
 

moon111

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Gardiner is so bad they had to give the Leafs a 4th round pick to take him in the Lupul /François Beauchemin trade. :D
 

Freudian

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That was perhaps not well formulated.

Anyway. No offense, Freudian, but all the material is out there to look up and read. If you want to get to know why statisticians develop and use the numbers they do, and what they indicate and how they correlate with each other, then feel free to check it up. If you really want to learn the why of it all, and not just use what those that have done the work says you should, then there's really no way around it than to start reading everything that is available. That's what I did.

That's not a particularly convincing answer. I thought you had some specific study you were talking about when you claimed a strong correlation. I fairly familiar with how statistics work and the weakness of relative stats should be obvious. You can't just normalize and assume every team has the same amount of above and below average players in every category and then claim that those above average are above average league wide.
 

Nithoniniel

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That's not a particularly convincing answer. I thought you had some specific study you were talking about when you claimed a strong correlation. I fairly familiar with how statistics work and the weakness of relative stats should be obvious. You can't just normalize and assume every team has the same amount of above and below average players in every category and then claim that those above average are above average league wide.

I point out that you argue against pretty much the entire field of statistical analysis in hockey and you don't think it's convincing? You don't think there's a reason why everyone works this way, including people that have now been hired by NHL teams?
 

Joey24

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Larry Murphy was maybe the first victim of the 'good player on a bad team' smear.

who needs a guy like that

Larry Murphy was badly misused in Toronto. Look at his Pittsburgh years, then his Detroit years. He was smart but exposed by what Toronto wanted him to be and how they used him.
 

MadSnowman42

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Jul 23, 2015
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I think it's highly unlikely that Jake Gardiner is among the best at shot suppression in the crease and slot while being one of the worst at shot suppression overall. He would be a statistical unicorn if that is the case.
That is exactly what the article suggests. It sure is a curiosity, but I do not think it to be entirely impossible. In fact, go to war-on-ice.com, enter Jake Gardiner, untick "use only three blocks" and see for yourself. His numbers in the slot area are well below league average.

As Nithoniniel pointed out, the alternative is to call Yost a liar. And probably war-on-ice.com as well. Which you are free to believe and which just might be true. Who knows? I do not. Maybe it is a conspiracy. We could call it the Jake-Gardiner-Conspiracy. No, zeigeist requires the ending "gate". Gardinergate?
 

leafs in five

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remember when all these corsi/ corsi rel type stats were obviously bogus because they suggested that the Leafs were bad, like reeeal bad, and obviously the Leafs were good because they had a cup winning coach and a winning record and a great first line whose centre covers on D?

now that everyone agrees that the Leafs were/are terrible the same type of stats can still be dismissed as invalid, but now it's because the team is bad: you can't trust any favourable numbers that are created by the players on a bad team, because the team is bad, and that's all that matters.

we are like 1.5 years removed from literally the exact opposite argument. that you can't trust any unfavourable stats that are created by a good team, or by the players on a good team, because the team is good, and that's all that matters.

it's been a hell of a ride.
 

Freudian

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I point out that you argue against pretty much the entire field of statistical analysis in hockey and you don't think it's convincing? You don't think there's a reason why everyone works this way, including people that have now been hired by NHL teams?

NHL teams have used statistics for 100 years to make decisions. I don't know why you are under the impression I am against stats. I like good use of statistics.

I am against using relative CA stats to claim a defender like Gardiner as one of the top defensive defensemen in the league when both the eye test and actual stats tell us he isn't.

As for the strong correlation between relative stats and something else (unclear what, except that it seems to be a positive thing): claiming something and then when asked to substantiate your claim insisting that the other person should find the proof for you claim isn't how you successfully argue a point.
 

leafs in five

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Larry Murphy was badly misused in Toronto. Look at his Pittsburgh years, then his Detroit years. He was smart but exposed by what Toronto wanted him to be and how they used him.

i don't remember the 1996/97 Leafs all that well. but it's probably much easier to be seen as playing well on a Red Wings dynasty team, to play within one's own skillset and abilities on a defense that has (other) hall of fame defenseman on it. if Murphy had to play in all situations on a much worse Toronto team it was probably at least in part due to a lack of alternative options.

in any event i think this thread offers at least a good excuse to consider what we mean when we say things about 'how player x should be used.' like whether it's truly better to have Roman Polak on the ice for a defensive zone faceoff than it is to have Jake Gardiner there.

on the subject of the 96/97 Leafs, here is a player that played on te 96/97 Leafs: Ralph Intranuovo.
 

Gary Nylund

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Larry Murphy was maybe the first victim of the 'good player on a bad team' smear.

who needs a guy like that

This made me realize in a roundabout sort of way why Gardiner just doesn't fit in Toronto - he's a good player on a bad team.
 

Nithoniniel

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NHL teams have used statistics for 100 years to make decisions. I don't know why you are under the impression I am against stats. I like good use of statistics.

I am against using relative CA stats to claim a defender like Gardiner as one of the top defensive defensemen in the league when both the eye test and actual stats tell us he isn't.

As for the strong correlation between relative stats and something else (unclear what, except that it seems to be a positive thing): claiming something and then when asked to substantiate your claim insisting that the other person should find the proof for you claim isn't how you successfully argue a point.

There seems to be some things to clear out:

1) Nobody is saying that Gardiner is one of the top defensive D-men in the league.
2) It's hard to believe you don't have something against analytical statistics when you use terms like 'actual stats' for other stats.
3) I'm not really trying to make a certain point. I was saying that if you want to understand why the statistical community use statistics the way they do, then there are no shortcuts. You need to read up on the available material. You seem to have a view that is completely contrary to what the community works with, so I just thought you'd be interested in reading up on the subject.
 
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pcruz

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All these statistics are really great and all, but they're all theoretical.

"Gardiner isn't a great defensive defenseman, but statistics show that when he's on the ice, his team is usually not defending."

That's nice and all in theory. In practice, it means nothing to me other than he's not a good defensive defenseman.

There will come a time when I will need this guy to be on the ice, without the puck, shutting down Sidney Crosby. Now, you can spout all these offensive and possession numbers, but I want to know how he is going to stop Crosby (with the puck) from scoring!

I can't trust that he can make the defensive plays consistently, nor can I trust that he'll be able to knock his man off the puck, nor can I trust that he'll be in the correct position to make a defensive play, when he is in fact DEFENDING.

If I can't trust him to do those things defensively, he's not a good defenseman. He might be a very good, or very effective player, but he's not good at defending.
 

Duke Silver

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All these statistics are really great and all, but they're all theoretical.

"Gardiner isn't a great defensive defenseman, but statistics show that when he's on the ice, his team is usually not defending."

That's nice and all in theory. In practice, it means nothing to me other than he's not a good defensive defenseman.

There will come a time when I will need this guy to be on the ice, without the puck, shutting down Sidney Crosby. Now, you can spout all these offensive and possession numbers, but I want to know how he is going to stop Crosby (with the puck) from scoring!

I can't trust that he can make the defensive plays consistently, nor can I trust that he'll be able to knock his man off the puck, nor can I trust that he'll be in the correct position to make a defensive play, when he is in fact DEFENDING.

If I can't trust him to do those things defensively, he's not a good defenseman. He might be a very good, or very effective player, but he's not good at defending.

Well Crosby had no goals against Gardiner last year, if it helps.

But there's more to being a defenceman than defending. That's the point.

Most of peoples' problems around these parts is that they focus too much on a player's deficiencies than celebrating their overwhelmingly good qualities.

Gardiner will never be a shutdown defenceman and should not be deployed in such a manner, much like Kadri will never win a Selke trophy and should not be deployed as a shutdown centre.

Both are very good at driving play, keeping the puck in the opponent's end and generating scoring chances. This is something which drives success in today's NHL.

Roman Polak may do a better job of rubbing a Crosby out against the boards, but I'd never take an Polak over Gardiner because overall, Gardiner does more to positively impact the game.

The overall point of the article, which the OP messed up in the title, is that Gardiner is a very proficient driver of possession. The stats aren't meant to prove he's "great". He's efficient.

He's the type of defenceman Babcock will love.
 

Nithoniniel

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All these statistics are really great and all, but they're all theoretical.

"Gardiner isn't a great defensive defenseman, but statistics show that when he's on the ice, his team is usually not defending."

That's nice and all in theory. In practice, it means nothing to me other than he's not a good defensive defenseman.

There will come a time when I will need this guy to be on the ice, without the puck, shutting down Sidney Crosby. Now, you can spout all these offensive and possession numbers, but I want to know how he is going to stop Crosby (with the puck) from scoring!

I can't trust that he can make the defensive plays consistently, nor can I trust that he'll be able to knock his man off the puck, nor can I trust that he'll be in the correct position to make a defensive play, when he is in fact DEFENDING.

If I can't trust him to do those things defensively, he's not a good defenseman. He might be a very good, or very effective player, but he's not good at defending.

Like Duke Silver says, why only look at part of the equation?

Let's take a look at how the situation might look at with Gardiner and, say, Roman Polak. Situation starts with Crosby having the puck.

Polak is not as good as Gardiner at defending the blue line. So with him, Crosby would gain entrance to our zone more often. There Polak does a better job of containing Crosby. He might even get the puck, but since he's awful at transition the Pens just end up getting it back. Crosby gets a new chance. Perhaps Polak can manage that as well, but the third time its a fresh Malkin coming at him.

With Gardiner we have a bigger chance of preventing having to play defense, as he is better at defending the blue line. He might not be as good while the opponents are in the zone, but once we gain possession the puck is up the ice and all that time that Polak spent defending again and again, is now spent in the offensive zone.

Besides, while Gardiner certainly has deficiencies defensively, so does pretty much every other D-man we have. Rielly is worse positionally, at gap control and one-on-one. Polak and Phaneuf has awful stick positioning, never takes away options. Robidas can't handle strong forwards, he ends up on his butt.

For some reason, not being good at winning board battles is seen as incredibly much worse for defense than stick positioning, gap control, mobility. Yet I'm pretty sure those things are just as important.
 

RLF

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Like Duke Silver says, why only look at part of the equation?

Let's take a look at how the situation might look at with Gardiner and, say, Roman Polak. Situation starts with Crosby having the puck.

Polak is not as good as Gardiner at defending the blue line. So with him, Crosby would gain entrance to our zone more often. There Polak does a better job of containing Crosby. He might even get the puck, but since he's awful at transition the Pens just end up getting it back. Crosby gets a new chance. Perhaps Polak can manage that as well, but the third time its a fresh Malkin coming at him.

With Gardiner we have a bigger chance of preventing having to play defense, as he is better at defending the blue line. He might not be as good while the opponents are in the zone, but once we gain possession the puck is up the ice and all that time that Polak spent defending again and again, is now spent in the offensive zone.

Besides, while Gardiner certainly has deficiencies defensively, so does pretty much every other D-man we have. Rielly is worse positionally, at gap control and one-on-one. Polak and Phaneuf has awful stick positioning, never takes away options. Robidas can't handle strong forwards, he ends up on his butt.

For some reason, not being good at winning board battles is seen as incredibly much worse for defense than stick positioning, gap control, mobility. Yet I'm pretty sure those things are just as important.

Statistics show us a more inside look into things, but it's how people interpret them all and not just the ones that prove an agenda. I think what some are saying is "ok, Jake moves well and controls the puck, but to say he is a good/great defender is a stretch" more or less. And yes, some are claiming he is a very good defender and using advanced stats to show it, but leave out other parts that show negatives in his game.

5on5, No doubt Jake prefers to carry the puck and drives play forward, but the stats also show that it doesn't amount to much. I know many say this is a garbage stat, but +/- when taken into context does help tell a story as well. Jake had the worst +/- among all our defencemen. Say what you will, but it means for all the time he possess the puck, protects the blueline, drives play etc, he still allows more goals against then he helps produce than any other d-man on the team.

QOC is also important even though some shrug it off and claim there is barely a difference. No way to know it has little difference since Dion plays against top competition (1st,2nd line) mostly and Jake plays against secondary competition(2nd,3rd line)mostly. So, it only goes to reason he will have an easier time suppressing shots, defending the blueline etc. It doesn't mean if they switch competition, Jake would do just or almost as well. It would also account for the fact that when Jake is on the ice Save% higher and shots against is lower than when Dion or Cody were on the ice because the first pair played against guys who shoot more and put up more points.

Jake had the most takeaways, but also the least blocked shots, one of the fewer hits and most giveaways by far. Yes, Jake has an active stick and gets possession this way, but he also gives it back at a higher rate than the others(double the giveaways of Polak). His lack of willingness to either block shots or make contact creates a relatively easy night physically on the opposing players. Physical contact wears the opposing player down over a game and tires them out. Jake tires no one out. Now if he produced points and help create offence, then that will help, but he doesn't, even though his QOC is lower than what Dion or Franson saw. Against lower QOC, with his skills, he should be creating more offence.

Jake also has the highest ratio of OZsarts to DZzone starts. Again, giving him the advantage to be able to create more offence and keep his shots against totals down. Here is where +/- comes into context again. He has the worst +/-, but starts more shifts than anyone else in the offensive zone and less than anyone else in the defensive zone. Considering Carlyle was a line match coach and we know Jake saw very little of the Crosby's, Ovi's etc in comparisson, it shows he doesn't help create offence against secondary players and is outscored by them. It wasn't because he got bad goaltending, he got better SV% than Dion, Franson, Polak and the same as Rielly. So, good shot suppression, good Shots against stats, good SV%, but horrible +/- and lower QOC.

Jake also plays easier minutes as he plays little PK compared to Dion, Polak, Franson, but gets 2nd PP duties, the easier minutes. PK duties wears on players huge. They are the toughest, most tiring minutes you can play. He should have the energy to be tougher to play against, but he prefers to use that energy to carry the puck, which unfortunately the stats show creates very little offence.

I am not trying to knock Jake, but stats do not prove he is a good/great defender when everything is taken into context. He does what most see. He skates well, keeps possession well, but leaves us wanting more offensively. He does not outscore his defensive deficiencies and is fairly soft to play against. He does give the puck away, but is good at finessing the puck off of the opposition and recovering.
 

Nithoniniel

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Statistics show us a more inside look into things, but it's how people interpret them all and not just the ones that prove an agenda. I think what some are saying is "ok, Jake moves well and controls the puck, but to say he is a good/great defender is a stretch" more or less. And yes, some are claiming he is a very good defender and using advanced stats to show it, but leave out other parts that show negatives in his game.

5on5, No doubt Jake prefers to carry the puck and drives play forward, but the stats also show that it doesn't amount to much. I know many say this is a garbage stat, but +/- when taken into context does help tell a story as well. Jake had the worst +/- among all our defencemen. Say what you will, but it means for all the time he possess the puck, protects the blueline, drives play etc, he still allows more goals against then he helps produce than any other d-man on the team.

QOC is also important even though some shrug it off and claim there is barely a difference. No way to know it has little difference since Dion plays against top competition (1st,2nd line) mostly and Jake plays against secondary competition(2nd,3rd line)mostly. So, it only goes to reason he will have an easier time suppressing shots, defending the blueline etc. It doesn't mean if they switch competition, Jake would do just or almost as well. It would also account for the fact that when Jake is on the ice Save% higher and shots against is lower than when Dion or Cody were on the ice because the first pair played against guys who shoot more and put up more points.

Jake had the most takeaways, but also the least blocked shots, one of the fewer hits and most giveaways by far. Yes, Jake has an active stick and gets possession this way, but he also gives it back at a higher rate than the others(double the giveaways of Polak). His lack of willingness to either block shots or make contact creates a relatively easy night physically on the opposing players. Physical contact wears the opposing player down over a game and tires them out. Jake tires no one out. Now if he produced points and help create offence, then that will help, but he doesn't, even though his QOC is lower than what Dion or Franson saw. Against lower QOC, with his skills, he should be creating more offence.

Jake also has the highest ratio of OZsarts to DZzone starts. Again, giving him the advantage to be able to create more offence and keep his shots against totals down. Here is where +/- comes into context again. He has the worst +/-, but starts more shifts than anyone else in the offensive zone and less than anyone else in the defensive zone. Considering Carlyle was a line match coach and we know Jake saw very little of the Crosby's, Ovi's etc in comparisson, it shows he doesn't help create offence against secondary players and is outscored by them. It wasn't because he got bad goaltending, he got better SV% than Dion, Franson, Polak and the same as Rielly. So, good shot suppression, good Shots against stats, good SV%, but horrible +/- and lower QOC.

Jake also plays easier minutes as he plays little PK compared to Dion, Polak, Franson, but gets 2nd PP duties, the easier minutes. PK duties wears on players huge. They are the toughest, most tiring minutes you can play. He should have the energy to be tougher to play against, but he prefers to use that energy to carry the puck, which unfortunately the stats show creates very little offence.

I am not trying to knock Jake, but stats do not prove he is a good/great defender when everything is taken into context. He does what most see. He skates well, keeps possession well, but leaves us wanting more offensively. He does not outscore his defensive deficiencies and is fairly soft to play against. He does give the puck away, but is good at finessing the puck off of the opposition and recovering.

I have a few comments here. Have to say first that I appreciate reading criticism with some thought to it and that actually takes things into consideration. Here goes:

First bolded, some are saying that. Me personally, I think Gardiner is a #3 kind of D-man. I don't think that qualifies as great either. What many that I find myself arguing with is saying though is that he's awful, barely NHL-quality. That's an extreme take, and as such I have a problem with it.

Second bolded, Gardiner's +/- is driven by how little offense we created with him on the ice. That's completely the reverse from most of the criticism, which has to do with his defense. The offense comes from him having an incredibly low on-ice shooting percentage. This is not sustainable for two reasons. First, Gardiner actually helps us have more shot attempts in high scoring areas than average for the team. Second, D-men don't have control over on-ice shooting percentage so it is pretty much just noise.

Third bolded, what we actually know about QoC is that over the course of a season, Dion doesn't actually face good opposition that much more than Gardiner. As the sample size increase, the differences gets very small. It's very close to a non-factor.

Fourth bolded, this is directly connected to the third. Since QoC has a minuscule effect, this is likely not QoC-related. It's also not something that D-men have control over. So Gardiner has been getting a bit lucky defensively.

Fifth bolded, it is fair criticism that Gardiner doesn't have a physical side. Also that he doesn't block shots. Both are hot topics of discussion for how much they matter though.

Sixth bolded, also fair cricicism. Gardiner should absolutely create more offense than he does.

Seventh bolded, your theory here rests on some faulty grounds as above. First of all, zone starts is included in the calculations used for his possession game. His +/- is unsustainably bad. QoC is not the factor that you describe it as here. The percentages are noise-driven.

Eight bolded, Gardiner's play on special teams is fair criticism as well. He is most of all a 5-on-5 player.

Summary: You are right everything needs to be taken into account, but I find that you are off on some marks as above. What a statistical analysis shows is that Gardiner is a great transition D-man which helps his overall game a lot 5-on-5. This helps him mostly have an effect on defense, but offensively he has left some to be desired. 5-on-5, he has the overall effectiveness of a top pairing D-man, excluding subjective factors such as physicality and shot blocking. He is however limited to that, and as such doesn't have the value of a top pairing D-man. That's why I see him as an average #3 D-man.

If one looks at a complete analysis, one should also take into account that our system didn't punish our D-men that could skate as much as the others. This might skew Gardiner's relative stats making them look better than they would be in a better system. It'll be interesting to see what happens in this regard next season.

Now I have to run, writing this makes me about 15 minutes late. Looking forward to the reply.
 

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