Player Discussion Jake Evans (Part II)

[Habs Halifax]

Good so you won't be over paying him them He's a ROLE player role players don't make 4M dollars a year.
People are acting like he's the second coming of Michael Peca.

The truth is usually in the middle somewhere and I think that applies in this conversation

 

[DAChampion]

Hell we see that type of thinking at the top of lineup as well, who needs Matheson when we have Hutson, who needs Caufield when Laine has an even better shot, quick trade Montembeault because Dobes and Fowler are the future, etc...

Some people seem to be just wired into thinking you should only have 1 of any type of player.

I remember an interesting question from maybe a decade ago,

How well would a team with 12 Gallaghers at forward do?

 

[DAChampion]

I don't believe Engels has any insight so his 3.5 for 4 years is no different from any poster here, but if that truly is in the ballpark I would be very curious how much going to six years would drop the cap hit.

In the medium term Evans will be no better than the Habs' 4th center at next behind Suzuki, Dach, Hage; not to mention Beck, Kappanen, Xhekaj, Newhook, Koivu, could also become bottom six centers; and that the Habs have been effective at acquiring 4th line centers for decades now: Smolinski, Metropolit, Mitchell, Thompson, etc.

I'd offer Evans two years at 4.5 million per year, or so, as a stopgap, and structure the salary so that a buyout in the second year costs less.

 

[morhilane]

I remember an interesting question from maybe a decade ago,

How well would a team with 12 Gallaghers at forward do?

They would be 12 by now.

 

[Sorinth]

In the medium term Evans will be no better than the Habs' 4th center at next behind Suzuki, Dach, Hage; not to mention Beck, Kappanen, Xhekaj, Newhook, Koivu, could also become bottom six centers; and that the Habs have been effective at acquiring 4th line centers for decades now: Smolinski, Metropolit, Mitchell, Thompson, etc.

I'd offer Evans two years at 4.5 million per year, or so, as a stopgap, and structure the salary so that a buyout in the second year costs less.

Even if that's true, so what?

If someone comes along in the medium term and is better then Evans then we make a trade. If you've lowered the caphit by adding term, or the new deferred salary loophole then the worst case situation just isn't all that bad. Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

And I would add the only way Evans gets close to 4.5m is if he has a Lehkonen type of playoff run.

 

[DAChampion]

/Even if that's true, so what?

If someone comes along in the medium term and is better then Evans then we make a trade. If you've lowered the caphit by adding term, or the new deferred salary loophole then the worst case situation just isn't all that bad. Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

And I would add the only way Evans gets close to 4.5m is if he has a Lehkonen type of playoff run.

If Evans is signed to e.g. 4 years at 4.25 million per, then there is a significant chance that he will be untradable Gallagher-style in years 3 and 4. He's playing this season like an above-average third line center, but he's really an above average 4th-line center.

Signing him to two years (for which he would then be overpaid) limits the risk. At the end of the two years if Evans is really this Eller/Staal level third line center he'll get a great contract. If not then the Habs move on to one of Hage/Newhook/Beck/Kappanen/Xhekaj/etc.

 

[Sorinth]

If Evans is signed to e.g. 4 years at 4.25 million per, then there is a significant chance that he will be untradable Gallagher-style in years 3 and 4. He's playing this season like an above-average third line center, but he's really an above average 4th-line center.

Signing him to two years (for which he would then be overpaid) limits the risk. At the end of the two years if Evans is really this Eller/Staal level third line center he'll get a great contract. If not then the Habs move on to one of Hage/Newhook/Beck/Kappanen/Xhekaj/etc.

In the original post you quoted it was 3.5m for 4 years, and my question was whether it could go even lower if we went 5 or 6 years. So we are actually probably talking about ~3m cap hit not a 4.25m one. So it seems like you are intentionally inflating the hypothetical contract as a way to justify your preference of a 2 year deal.

Also worth mentioning that Gallagher will be tradeable in the last year of his deal, so even in your hypothetical 4 years at the extremely unlikely 4.25m, he's only a potential problem for 1 year. On top of which Gallagher's problem was the steep decline in his play, so unless you are predicting that Evans is good for 2 years then has a sudden decline in year 3 it doesn't seem particularly relevant.

 

[DAChampion]

In the original post you quoted it was 3.5m for 4 years, and my question was whether it could go even lower if we went 5 or 6 years. So we are actually probably talking about ~3m cap hit not a 4.25m one. So it seems like you are intentionally inflating the hypothetical contract as a way to justify your preference of a 2 year deal.

Also worth mentioning that Gallagher will be tradeable in the last year of his deal, so even in your hypothetical 4 years at the extremely unlikely 4.25m, he's only a potential problem for 1 year. On top of which Gallagher's problem was the steep decline in his play, so unless you are predicting that Evans is good for 2 years then has a sudden decline in year 3 it doesn't seem particularly relevant.

I've seen a range of salaries quoted for Evans.

I'm not worried about Evans having a sudden decline in year 3, I'm concerned that his performance during his contract year won't sustain, and that he'll go back to bring a 4th like center as soon as next year.

The Habs don't have a cap issue until Demidov ends his ELC, so that argues against a long contract for Evans.

There's also no need to trade him if he's no longer under contract. You write that Gallagher will soon be tradeable, but I think that's not actually known.

 

[Sorinth]

I've seen a range of salaries quoted for Evans.

I'm not worried about Evans having a sudden decline in year 3, I'm concerned that his performance during his contract year won't sustain, and that he'll go back to bring a 4th like center as soon as next year.

The Habs don't have a cap issue until Demidov ends his ELC, so that argues against a long contract for Evans.

There's also no need to trade him if he's no longer under contract. You write that Gallagher will soon be tradeable, but I think that's not actually known.

And you want to spend 4.5m per for 2 years on a 4th line center?

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

I've seen a range of salaries quoted for Evans.

I'm not worried about Evans having a sudden decline in year 3, I'm concerned that his performance during his contract year won't sustain, and that he'll go back to bring a 4th like center as soon as next year.

The Habs don't have a cap issue until Demidov ends his ELC, so that argues against a long contract for Evans.

There's also no need to trade him if he's no longer under contract. You write that Gallagher will soon be tradeable, but I think that's not actually known.

The last 3 seasons before this, despite no PP time, Evans put up a .37 PPG which is 30 points over a 82 game season. His point production from this year isn't sustainable, but he's shown in the past he can put up solid numbers for a bottom six 6.

 

[417]

Good so you won't be over paying him them He's a ROLE player role players don't make 4M dollars a year.
People are acting like he's the second coming of Michael Peca.

You realize the cap is rising and what ROLE players made before, isn't going to remain static?

Cap rises = salaries rise.

Doesn't seem all that too complicated to understand.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I've seen a range of salaries quoted for Evans.

I'm not worried about Evans having a sudden decline in year 3, I'm concerned that his performance during his contract year won't sustain, and that he'll go back to bring a 4th like center as soon as next year.

The Habs don't have a cap issue until Demidov ends his ELC, so that argues against a long contract for Evans.

There's also no need to trade him if he's no longer under contract. You write that Gallagher will soon be tradeable, but I think that's not actually known.

We should always ponder about 30+ contracts yes but not dwell on it to horrible levels. For me, the 30+ decline drop off usually applies to players with average to below average skating. Gallagher, Lucic, Alzner, etc. Go check out the ones who drop off a cliff in their 30's and the general trend is their skating was not their strength in the 20's. I find Evans's skating stable. Not elite but certainly not at Gallagher's level

I'm not buying or paying for a 40-50 pts center with Evans. I'm paying for a 200' center, forechecker, penalty killer, and faceoffs. This is not a Danault situation where is a 2C/3C type. Evans is a good 3C and strong 4C type. Right now today, Evans is a 0.37 pts/game player over 316 games. If we were to remove his first few development years and just use the last 3 years, it's 0.39 pts/game. That's 32 points. I believe he is a 30-40 pts center that us used mostly on the D side.

What I will say about his added production is he finally has stable wingers this year. He was a victim of roster bouncing due to lack of depth and injuries in the past (like it was with Lehkonen when he was with us). There is something to be said about this as well if we are fair to Evans.

 

[Habs Halifax]

You realize the cap is rising and what ROLE players made before, isn't going to remain static?

Cap rises = salaries rise.

Doesn't seem all that too complicated to understand.

This is an interesting conversation or something to ponder. Usually, when the cap rises, most of that growth goes to the stars and top end of the line-up. The role players do get raises but it's not $1M+. Think about it... if every role player got $1M+ more, that's way more than a $5M-$10M bump. It really doesn't add up.

Agents will drive a GM nuts. Every Agent wants their player to get a raise but it's not possible when the stars will take 50%-75% of that cap growth.

So the question I have is what was the 3C rate for the last 4 years (lets say)? Find out what that average was and then add $500k.

 

[417]

If Evans is signed to e.g. 4 years at 4.25 million per, then there is a significant chance that he will be untradable Gallagher-style in years 3 and 4. He's playing this season like an above-average third line center, but he's really an above average 4th-line center.

Current forwards making between 4-4.25M/yr

Ryan Hartman - 30 years old, 15pts in 43 games
David Perron - 36 years old, 0pts, in 10 games
Patrick Kane - 36 years old, 30pts in 42 games
Alex Iafallo - 31 years old, 15pts in 49 games
Dawson Mercer - 23 years old, 23 pts in 50 games
Nino Niederreiter - 32 years old, 26pts in 49 games
Viktor Arvidsson - 31 years old, 16pts in 33 games
Robby Fabrri - 29 years old, 12pts in 35 games
Ross Colton - 28 years old, 16pts in 32 games
Marcus Foligno - 33 years old, 15pts in 48 games
Mats Zuccarello - 37 years old, 33pts in 35 games
Carter Verhaeghe - 29 years old, 34pts in 39 games
Trevor Moore - 29 years old, 20pts in 36 games
Jason Dickinson - 29 years old, 14pts in 47 games

Looking at this list, all of these deals were signed in a salary cap between 80-88M...the cap is projected to be between 92.5-100M over the next 4-5 years.

How exactly would signing Jake Evans to a 4.25M/yr deal make him "untradeable", assuming you even want to trade him in the first place?

Signing him to two years (for which he would then be overpaid) limits the risk. At the end of the two years if Evans is really this Eller/Staal level third line center he'll get a great contract. If not then the Habs move on to one of Hage/Newhook/Beck/Kappanen/Xhekaj/etc.

Why would he sign for 2 years unless you're willing to make his salary well worth it?

Again, i'm not quite sure what the beef is with a deal in the 4M range, people aren't updating their software when it comes to contracts. You're no longer dealing in a salary cap in the 80Ms.

 

[417]

This is an interesting conversation or something to ponder. Usually, when the cap rises, most of that growth goes to the stars and top end of the line-up. The role players do get raises but it's not $1M+. Think about it... if every role player got $1M+ more, that's way more than a $5M-$10M bump. It really doesn't add up.

Agents will drive a GM nuts. Every Agent wants their player to get a raise but it's not possible when the stars will take 50%-75% of that cap growth.

So the question I have is what was the 3C rate for the last 4 years (lets say)? Find out what that average was and then add $500k.

But players similar to Jake Evans make 4M TODAY.

Jason Dickinson signed for 2 years at 4.25M/yr last offseason.

When the cap rises, salaries rise for ALL players...that's the whole point of revenue sharing and players getting their fair slice of the pie.

Adding an arbitrary $500K isn't realistic when the cap is expected to rise to 100M over the next 4-5 years. \

When players negotiate for the CBA, it's not just to raise the salaries of star players...it's also to raise the floor and the financial security of all players.

 

[Habs Halifax]

But players similar to Jake Evans make 4M TODAY.

Jason Dickinson signed for 2 years at 4.25M/yr last offseason.

When the cap rises, salaries rise for ALL players...that's the whole point of revenue sharing and players getting their fair slice of the pie.

Adding an arbitrary $500K isn't realistic when the cap is expected to rise to 100M over the next 4-5 years. \

When players negotiate for the CBA, it's not just to raise the salaries of star players...it's also to raise the floor and the financial security of all players.

Teams have already handed out contracts with a $92M+ cap. It's not like GM's and Agents didn't know this was coming with all the contracts awarded in the last 2 years ish.

I stand firm. Most of the growth will go to the stars and top half of the roster. The bottom half is not all getting $1M raises or more. If you gave 4 guys an extra $1M more in the bottom half, that is basically all the cap growth from this year to next ($88M vs $92M) Think about it.

 

[417]

Teams have already handed out contracts with a $92M+ cap. It's not like GM's and Agents didn't know this was coming with all the contracts awarded in the last 2 years ish.

Yes, last year when the 92.5M cap for 2025-26 was announced. Hence why a guy like Jason Dickinson who was coming off a career year of 35pts, despite never having more than 30pts in any of his previous 8 NHL season, was able to secure a 2 year deal @ 4.25M.

Now we know and certainly agents know, that the salary cap is heading towards 100M over the next 4-5 years.

a $500K increase is not a realistic number.

I stand firm. Most of the growth will go to the stars and top half of the roster. The bottom half is not all getting $1M raises or more. If you gave 4 guys an extra $1M more in the bottom half, that is basically all the cap growth from this year to next ($88M vs $92M) Think about it.

Jake Evans currently makes 1.7M/year on a deal he signed in October of 2021.

I will guarantee you that he's going to double that this summer, whether with the Montreal Canadiens or another team.

He could not get another single point the rest of this season and he'll at least double his current salary.

I'm not suggesting that every single player in the NHL will see his salary double over the next few years, but as I said earlier, when the cap rises, so do salaries and that's for ALL players.

We've seen this historically with every cap increase. It's not going to be any different this time around, the entire system is built in this way to do exactly that.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Yes, last year when the 92.5M cap for 2025-26 was announced. Hence why a guy like Jason Dickinson who was coming off a career year of 35pts, despite never having more than 30pts in any of his previous 8 NHL season, was able to secure a 2 year deal @ 4.25M.

Now we know and certainly agents know, that the salary cap is heading towards 100M over the next 4-5 years.

a $500K increase is not a realistic number.

Jake Evans currently makes 1.7M/year on a deal he signed in October of 2021.

I will guarantee you that he's going to double that this summer, whether with the Montreal Canadiens or another team.

He could not get another single point the rest of this season and he'll at least double his current salary.

I'm not suggesting that every single player in the NHL will see his salary double over the next few years, but as I said earlier, when the cap rises, so do salaries and that's for ALL players.

We've seen this historically with every cap increase. It's not going to be any different this time around, the entire system is built in this way to do exactly that.

This is way to complicated to explain in a post. I stand firm that most of the growth will be spent on the stars and top half of the roster. Evans is getting a raise because his value/bridge contract was signed a while ago. In Evans case, it's more about where he is today and how that looks for a $92M cap. Not a $100M cap.

The NHL just announced a cancelation to the Escrow for the rest of the year and to share extra profits (snap shot below). Back in Nov/Dec, Bettman was talking about a potential bump up to that $92.4M cap for next year but wanted to talk to the players. I think by canceling the escrow and sharing the extra profits, this is how they are managing the potential shock to the system where they have extra growth after Covid. It's going to stabilize at some point and any potential economy setback is not even factored. The years to come is not predictable. All they know right now is the cap will be $92.4M next year. We can assume the $100M cap is coming and I think it will but GM's and Agents can't bank on it entirely. It's tricky

 

[417]

This is way to complicated to explain in a post. I stand firm that most of the growth will be spent on the stars and top half of the roster.

There's nothing complicated to explain, you're pretty much stating the obvious.

Yes, obviously the best and highest plaid players will get the biggest piece of the pie.

But it trickles down, if middle six players are CURRENTLY making in the 3.5-4.5M range, then they'll get at least that and more over the next few years.

We're not really disagreeing here, I fully comprehend that stars will get most of the benefits of the cap increase, but you're suggesting that everyone else will get scraps, is way off.

 

[Habs Halifax]

There's nothing complicated to explain, you're pretty much stating the obvious.

Yes, obviously the best and highest plaid players will get the biggest piece of the pie.

But it trickles down, if middle six players are CURRENTLY making in the 3.5-4.5M range, then they'll get at least that and more over the next few years.

We're not really disagreeing here, I fully comprehend that stars will get most of the benefits of the cap increase, but you're suggesting that everyone else will get scraps, is way off.

The bottom half of the roster can't all get $1M or more raises. That's $8M and takes all the growth. It's the other way around. The top half gets raises the the bottom half gets whatever is left. Of course, it's tricky because there is ELC, Bridge deals, and contracts overlapping years from several players. Just because we have Suzuki and others on value contracts and we have more to spend, it doesn't really mean we have to give it all to our bottom half.

With Evans, it's more about what he is worth today with a $88M-$92M cap. Not a $100M cap. $4M is not a massive reach but I won't be surprised if he gets $3M or $3.5M. Also won't be surprised if he gets $4.5M. UFA markets are overspending and Evans/Agent will use that to their leverage.

 

[417]

The bottom half of the roster can't all get $1M or more raises. That's $8M and takes all the growth. It's the other way around. The top half gets raises the the bottom half gets whatever is left. Of course, it's tricky because there is ELC, Bridge deals, and contracts overlapping years from several players. Just because we have Suzuki and others on value contracts and we have more to spend, it doesn't really mean we have to give it all to our bottom half.

With Evans, it's more about what he is worth today with a $88M-$92M cap. Not a $100M cap. $4M is not a massive reach but I won't be surprised if he gets $3M or $3.5M. Also won't be surprised if he gets $4.5M. UFA markets are overspending and Evans/Agent will use that to their leverage.

Yeah I completely disagree here...this just flies in the face of logic and how contract negotiations work.

But agree to disagree I suppose.

 

[DAChampion]

Current forwards making between 4-4.25M/yr

Ryan Hartman - 30 years old, 15pts in 43 games
David Perron - 36 years old, 0pts, in 10 games
Patrick Kane - 36 years old, 30pts in 42 games
Alex Iafallo - 31 years old, 15pts in 49 games
Dawson Mercer - 23 years old, 23 pts in 50 games
Nino Niederreiter - 32 years old, 26pts in 49 games
Viktor Arvidsson - 31 years old, 16pts in 33 games
Robby Fabrri - 29 years old, 12pts in 35 games
Ross Colton - 28 years old, 16pts in 32 games
Marcus Foligno - 33 years old, 15pts in 48 games
Mats Zuccarello - 37 years old, 33pts in 35 games
Carter Verhaeghe - 29 years old, 34pts in 39 games
Trevor Moore - 29 years old, 20pts in 36 games
Jason Dickinson - 29 years old, 14pts in 47 games

Looking at this list, all of these deals were signed in a salary cap between 80-88M...the cap is projected to be between 92.5-100M over the next 4-5 years.

How exactly would signing Jake Evans to a 4.25M/yr deal make him "untradeable", assuming you even want to trade him in the first place?

Would you want your team to trade for those guys?

 

[417]

Would you want your team to trade for those guys?

That's besides the point...the point is that that's the market for Jake Evans.

If you don't want the Habs to pay that to retain his services, that's fine, but that's his comparable and that's largely how contracts work.

For my perspective, letting Jake Evans walk because you don't want to pay him market value, will just result you turning around and pay over market for a similar or probably older/worse player, or trading a bunch of assets to fill the role he vacated.

I don't see the issue with paying Evans market value.

 

[DAChampion]

That's besides the point...the point is that that's the market for Jake Evans.

If you wouldn't want your team to trade for those guys, then that suggests that overpaying Evans will make it harder to trade him.

 

[417]

If you wouldn't want your team to trade for those guys, then that suggests that overpaying Evans will make it harder to trade him.

But you're getting way ahead of the question here.

Why would you sign a player specifically to trade him?

Who says they're going to want to trade him?

You're talking about trade value and the potential of whether or not his perspective contract can be moved in a trade (btw, we all know any contract can be moved, just depends how much you're willing to do it).

I'm talking about what Jake Evans value is for a contract. 3.5-4.5 is more than reasonable, that's his market value. The question is more about term.

You keep talking about overpaying Evans, but that's not an overpayment.