Player Discussion Jake Evans (Part II)

[ReHabs]

I always advocated to keep Evans, so for me, this is not new or a change of hearth. That said, I get what you mean, but when does a team exit the "asset accumulation" stage to a "management of asset" stage??

To me, the team is showing sign that they may be turning a corner. Now this is a very small sample size, so that needs to be sustain, but if this is a real step forward, then management has to keep player that are key to the success (not at all cost obviously).

When the team played the way it did in Oct/Nov, I can see why people felt like they needed to accumulate more assets, but now this is a good question to ask : what does the team need to achieve the next step and who can help you get there.

Very good comment.

My addition, to help answer your question, would be to point at Dach and Reinbacher's injuries. Let's say they were 100% going to serve as a suitable 2C and 2D. Now, let's say, with the injury and consequent fragility, this is now less certain.

Do you think we have sufficient assets to acquire/secure the services of a suitable 2C and 2D before next season (without breaking our roster)? I don't think so. Also we lost some value: Newhook lost trade value, Dach will not recoup a 13OA, Reinbacher will not recoup a 5OA, etc. So if we have to trade to get what we need, we'll need more assets: Newhook+, or Dach+, or Reinbacher+ (as an example). The only real sexy prospect we have is Michael Hage (Demidov being untradeable) and we don't want to even think about trading Hage, do we? Can Sean Farrell or Mesar or Engstrom turn on another team? Doubt it. Mailloux maybe.

Armia and Evans seem to me like a good way to recoup assets in exchange for players that are 20 games from leaving anyway.

The "management of assets" stage begins immediately after this season and it won't be simple with having to replace Savard, Dvorak, Armia, and Evans + improving the roster. Lots of turnover ahead of us, better to be as rich as possible imo.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I always advocated to keep Evans, so for me, this is not new or a change of hearth. That said, I get what you mean, but when does a team exit the "asset accumulation" stage to a "management of asset" stage??

To me, the team is showing sign that they may be turning a corner. Now this is a very small sample size, so that needs to be sustain, but if this is a real step forward, then management has to keep player that are key to the success (not at all cost obviously).

When the team played the way it did in Oct/Nov, I can see why people felt like they needed to accumulate more assets, but now this is a good question to ask : what does the team need to achieve the next step and who can help you get there.

They aren't in asset accumulation phase anymore, they've admitted as much. Now if there's a 1st on the table for Evans and the negotiations aren't going in the right direction. They might be forced to take that deal, because another 1st in the war chest puts you in a better position if a top end player becomes available.

But if there's no 1st on the table and the negotiations are going well, or some combination of that, I would expect Evans to remain. Building culture and doing the right thing for the team that's pulled themselves from last in the league to a wildcard spot and sniffing around it long term, is more important than another 2nd round pick.

 

[DAChampion]

I always advocated to keep Evans, so for me, this is not new or a change of hearth. That said, I get what you mean, but when does a team exit the "asset accumulation" stage to a "management of asset" stage??

To me, the team is showing sign that they may be turning a corner. Now this is a very small sample size, so that needs to be sustain, but if this is a real step forward, then management has to keep player that are key to the success (not at all cost obviously).

When the team played the way it did in Oct/Nov, I can see why people felt like they needed to accumulate more assets, but now this is a good question to ask : what does the team need to achieve the next step and who can help you get there.

Even a great team can sell players and even a bad team can keep players.

In the case of the Habs and Evans, they need him in 2025 and 2026, but probably not in 2027 and beyond, so it's difficult to justify a 4 year 4 million/year contract.

The best case is probably to acquire a veteran center as a two year stop gap.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Even a great team can sell players and even a bad team can keep players.

In the case of the Habs and Evans, they need him in 2025 and 2026, but probably not in 2027 and beyond, so it's difficult to justify a 4 year 4 million/year contract.

The best case is probably to acquire a veteran center as a two year stop gap.

Or just deal with the fact the cap rises and you can definitely afford to have someone as versatile as Evans in your bottom 6 for the final year of his contract.

 

[salbutera]

For me its the 3rd year that I'm not super high on if we are talking 4.5-5, I could give him a nice amount for 2 years , but why would he do that. I'm open to 3+ if the cap hit is ok

Hopefully Jake likes it here and we can negotiate something that works for both sides

Unless he’s willing to bet on himself and the fact he’ll be on a team trending upwards, thus, potentially inflating his stats. In 2yrs time w cap ceiling jumping well above $100M, that becomes his retirement longterm contract - but that’s assuming no injuries derailing which take the best contract offer now by going UFA allows

Tough call…

 

[Sorinth]

Even a great team can sell players and even a bad team can keep players.

In the case of the Habs and Evans, they need him in 2025 and 2026, but probably not in 2027 and beyond, so it's difficult to justify a 4 year 4 million/year contract.

The best case is probably to acquire a veteran center as a two year stop gap.

The only concern for length is whether this season is a fluke and he'll go back to being a 20-30 point player that's not worth whatever the cap hit ends up being.

I can guarantee you that whatever lineup you or I are predicting in 2027 is wrong. We have no idea whether we will need him, whether he's a luxury that's useful, or no real room and honestly it doesn't matter because so long as he's productive and worth his contract then we can either trade him or whoever he's in roster spot competition with to go out and get something we do need.

I'd even say we should probably actually go very long on term at 6 years in order to bring down the caphit so that even if we do have to make a move after year 2 of the new contract it's an easier cap hit to deal. But of course it all depends on how big of a discount we are talking.

 

[schwang26]

The assumption here is that Evans is impossible to replace which to me is astounding considering he's a role player.

Yes but you know what you’re getting with Evans. Not every player fits with a new team and the guy they bring in could be a disaster. I think it’s a pretty tight group right now so they have to be really careful. Plus, I thought I heard that Evans leads 4th liners in goals.

 

[schwang26]

Yes, he's a center. Dvorak isn't as effective as him, at all.

They need a seasoned center who is going to take your big defensive draws. Match up against the other teams top 6. Take the big draw on the PK and kill that penalty.

It's a role, he fills it, trying to skimp on 500k isn't where we are at and the cap keeps rising. They'll sign him and the deal will be ok and not an issue at all.

Well said and unless they get really lucky and sign or trade for an Evans replacement, there’s no one in the organization ready for that roll yet. Neither Beck nor Kapanen can step in just yet. Maybe not for another year even. If they trade him and the replacement doesn’t work out, that’s a big blow. Evans does a LOT for this team. He’s always been under appreciated because he’s not traditionally a scorer.

 

[morhilane]

The true value was having a group of D that doesn't become a liability with key turnovers or miss coverage at an important time of the game. Weak D or weak goaltending allowing soft goals are momentum killers.

Although Savard has been in/out of the line-up lately, moving him with Xhekaj also provided stability.

I don't think Guhle is much different on the LD or RD side since that trade. His play is neutral IMO. Matheson with Hutson is the head scratcher that has been very good.

The biggest change with Carrier arrival is that Matheson quality of opposition went from 2nd hardest in the league to like 162nd and there is a ~20% difference in ozone starts before/after as well. Guhle's usage haven't really changed and he was moved at LD a few games after coming back from injury, that was long before the Carrier trade.

The same "wrong chair" would happen among forwards if Evans leaves and a vets defensive center who can eat Evans's minutes isn't acquired. Because if Evans isn't there to eat those minutes, then Suzuki has to eat them or Dach. Dvorak will also get replaced and his chair is much easier for a rookie to play in then Evans.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The biggest change with Carrier arrival is that Matheson quality of opposition went from 2nd hardest in the league to like 162nd and there is a ~20% difference in ozone starts before/after as well. Guhle's usage haven't really changed and he was moved at LD a few games after coming back from injury, that was long before the Carrier trade.

The same "wrong chair" would happen among forwards if Evans leaves and a vets defensive center who can eat Evans's minutes isn't acquired. Because if Evans isn't there to eat those minutes, then Suzuki has to eat them or Dach. Dvorak will also get replaced and his chair is much easier for a rookie to play in then Evans.

Yup, when we are missing a top 4D or a 3C, there are ripple effects. Taking Evans out would mean Newhook has to take that spot temporarily.

My issue with Evans is the dilemma between taking the 20-32 range pick vs what he is asking for on an extension. Sucks to see him go but would also suck if we keep him, miss the playoffs, and he walks for nothing. It's not a easy decision to make one way or another. I'm pretty sure Evans and his agent are wanting the 5 year term and will not sign until they get to see several offers as a UFA. Many agents take this stance in Evan's spot today.

Dvorak is staying for the rest of the season if it was my decision. I prefer not to call up Beck... he should stay in Laval to finish the run he started with his team this season.

I can see several different outcomes with the Evans situation. I'm prepared for him being traded or signed. Letting him finish the season and taking the risk he walks as a UFA? Not sure I would do that for a playoff run that likely means we miss the playoffs. I think we accomplished our goals by being in the mix this season. I'd be content with Newhook in that spot temporarily and we reevaluate where we are in the offseason.

I'd talk to Evans about the possibility of trading him to a contender and we get a late 1st and maybe a piece like Dvorak coming back that expires at the end of the season.

 

[ahmedou]

Evans is a great example for our baby Habs.

To have Evans healthy is a blessing.

We all want him to stay. As it's not easy to have great centers nowadays. He loves our team. And we love him.
I'm sure that they can find a solution to extend his contract with the right price.

 

[TennisMenace]

Evans is a great example for our baby Habs.

To have Evans healthy is a blessing.

We all want him to stay. As it's not easy to have great centers nowadays. He loves our team. And we love him.
I'm sure that they can find a solution to extend his contract with the right price.

Thank you for what I believe is a very accurate assessment of our Mr Evans. I wouldn’t be surprised if we go back to less than mediocrity if we lose his 4th line presence and his PK presence. I wonder how Armia and Heineman will fare without him.

KEEP EVANS; TOO IMPORTANT!

 

[Naslund]

Newhook will replace Evans next year. Dvorak is gone. Beck or Kapanen is promoted to the team to play 4th line C. HuGo are not spending >3 million for 3-4 years on Evans. This is Evans' best opportunity to cash in in his career, no way he does not go UFA and take the best offer he gets (his agent and family will make sure of that), which will be obscene by our standards. He's a goner for sure. And no, he will not be traded if we are still in the playoff mix by the deadline. That would break the trust between management and players, which would be beyond stupid.

The Habs are going to try to re-sign Armia for 2.5 millions for 2 years to mentor Beck/Kapanen and to provide some consistency for Heineman, and for the PK.

 

[RC51]

For the exact same reason other team want Evans so do the habs. Evans wants to stay in MTL, well do you expect him to say anything else. " I am due for a big raise" beck is not my problem, he can wait 2-3 more years, I am not giving up my job. So if ANY team wants to pry Evans out of MTL, it's real simple offer enough to force the Habs to take the offer. Any other bag of pucks offer wont pry anything. It does not matter what posters say, ( not worth it, would never offer that much, habs always overvalue their sub par players, ) real life is not a pc game. If no team offers enough than what is the downside to the Habs just keeping him or a big fat 0 downside.