Value of: Jake Evans, any interest?

[MisterT]

we'll just keep Gignac thanks,
One of the worse offer i've seen btw

If you want to see the worst offers, check out those posted by some guy with the username Slafy.

 

[Theodore450]

By mid year next season we better have Ylonen, Beck and Roy ready to match or push him aside or our development coaching and drafting will be exposed for what i fear it may be.

By mid year next season we better have Ylonen, Beck and Roy ready to match or push him aside or our development coaching and drafting will be exposed for what i fear it may be.

2 of those guys are wingers…………………

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Look at this. Study it. Look at it again. Study it harder.

Then ask yourself if what you are about to say make sense in term of an offer for an existing NHL player.

View attachment 818049

I always knew 6th rounders were more valuable than 5th rounders, any sane GM would trade their 5th for a 6th

 

[HabsAddict]

I always knew 6th rounders were more valuable than 5th rounders, any sane GM would trade their 5th for a 6th

Could be that by 6th round GMs are picking overage players or decent players from the KHL.

I think Mark Streit was 21 year old drafted in the 9th round from the Swiss League.

 

[Djp]

It was posted on this site several days ago.

Read the article. This article corresponds with another i read a few yesrs ago also calculating the odds vs draft position.

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

dobberprospects.com

If you want to analyze the points vs draft position and your work checks out by all mean, then I'll quote you.

my issue is 100+ games is too low of a threshold. 200 games is better Measure....why …because 1st round picks have a far better chance to get to 100 games over their first 4 years because GMs give their 1st round picks more chances than they would for a 7th round pick. If you look at a 200 game things change.

with 6 th and 7 th round picks it’s all or nothing. Many in the 3rd or later are what I refer to as replacement level where they might play thr 100 games by year 4 but then get moved over by a 1st rounder ready to take their place on the roster.

look at these later picks. Not many of them I’d call core top 3D/top 5 F

another isdue in the data is their isn’t an adjustment for goalies drsfted. Under CBA rules they adjust games played split between skaters and goalies. That should be done hear using the 80-28 ratio of games for those group 6 UFAs who are 25+ and not enough games.

I’ve done similar analysis on draft pick but used the 200 game level and also viewed the pick as success/ failur Tied to where they get picked. A top 10 pick who plays 200+ games but is viewed as a bottom pair/ bottom line player is still a failure. Same player drafted outside the 1st would be a success.

the chart before has bern around in many forms over the years in terms of high pick success rate broken down in parts of the 1st round, top half of 2nd, bottom half 2nd/ high 3rd.

 

[Jack Spider]

Can he play RW at all?
Has he been tried on 3rd line?
His numbers in 21-22 looked promising.
Better linemates that year/bigger role?

He can play wing.

Injuries.

He’s a defensive bottom 6 C. Decent on pk, calm on the faceoffs.

 

[MXD]

Can he play RW at all?
Has he been tried on 3rd line?
His numbers in 21-22 looked promising.
Better linemates that year/bigger role?

He even played wing on what was our first line for a few games in the 2021 playoffs.

But he's really best-used as a 3rd or 4th C than as a 2LW.

I also don't understand at all why Montreal would trade him; if anything, they need a player down the middle (at least to finish this season), and Evans is under contract next season to less than 2M.

 

[HabsAddict]

my issue is 100+ games is too low of a threshold. 200 games is better Measure....why …because 1st round picks have a far better chance to get to 100 games over their first 4 years because GMs give their 1st round picks more chances than they would for a 7th round pick. If you look at a 200 game things change.

with 6 th and 7 th round picks it’s all or nothing. Many in the 3rd or later are what I refer to as replacement level where they might play thr 100 games by year 4 but then get moved over by a 1st rounder ready to take their place on the roster.

look at these later picks. Not many of them I’d call core top 3D/top 5 F

another isdue in the data is their isn’t an adjustment for goalies drsfted. Under CBA rules they adjust games played split between skaters and goalies. That should be done hear using the 80-28 ratio of games for those group 6 UFAs who are 25+ and not enough games.

I’ve done similar analysis on draft pick but used the 200 game level and also viewed the pick as success/ failur Tied to where they get picked. A top 10 pick who plays 200+ games but is viewed as a bottom pair/ bottom line player is still a failure. Same player drafted outside the 1st would be a success.

the chart before has bern around in many forms over the years in terms of high pick success rate broken down in parts of the 1st round, top half of 2nd, bottom half 2nd/ high 3rd.
View attachment 818264View attachment 818264

It's a guide, not a scientific or engineering level analysis.

To get a real handle on success vs draft you have to take a fixed period of let's say 20 years, take points and amount of games of drafted players. You will get an even sharper drop of drafting position vs points per player.

Regardless, the argument that a 27 year old NHL bottom 6 player worth a very long shot 3rd is absurd.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I'd be interested as an Oilers fan, but I can't imagine that Montreal would trade him for the mid to late round pick I think he is worth.

 

[mab894]

As a Blues fan I'd trade a 3rd and a 5th

 

[The Great Weal]

Unless a team is offering a 2nd, Habs will keep him. He's fast, great on the PK, good on faceoffs, and is well liked in the room. We already have too many late picks as it is. That being said if you want to trade a late pick for Dvorak then by all means go ahead.

 

[HabsAddict]

As a Blues fan I'd trade a 3rd and a 5th

You got 3 pretty good centers and you want what's left of our paper thin center position?

Greed is one of the original sin....

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Without retention, a 3rd. With 50% retention, I could see a 2nd perhaps.

 

[pth2]

I can't see any offers that could make sense for both Montreal and the acquiring team.

I'd want value similar to Lehkonen, but I'm pretty sure no one would offer that. Selling him for less when a similar C would be required next year anyways just doesn't make sense.

In a year, if Beck seems to be growing into that kind of a role, we can revisit.

 

[crowi]

Ducks fan, he is a 3rd-4th, if you can sell him

 

[TBF1972]

we'll just keep Gignac thanks,
One of the worse offer i've seen btw

so you have never looked at your own proposals. that explains a lot.

 

[Conbon]

Goodrow, NYR 24 1st for Evans retained @ 1M

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Thanks for the info guys.
Ya not a fit then, FLA needs a middle 6 RW.

He can play wing.

Injuries.

He’s a defensive bottom 6 C. Decent on pk, calm on the faceoffs.

He even played wing on what was our first line for a few games in the 2021 playoffs.

But he's really best-used as a 3rd or 4th C than as a 2LW.

I also don't understand at all why Montreal would trade him; if anything, they need a player down the middle (at least to finish this season), and Evans is under contract next season to less than 2M.

 

[Tuggy]

I don't see the Habs moving him this season. Given the current state of their C situation, he's needed.

 

[Moose Head]

For the Avs, I would rather give a shot at Gignac. Gignac has great wheels and has been ok on FO in his debue (1st game 50% - 2nd game 100%). Maybe we can use him a bit like JT Compher was.

To Colorado

Gignac + 7th

To Montreal

SEA 2024 5th

Value is probably right, but the habs have no reason to make this type of trade.

 

[Jack Spider]

I’d like to see Gallagher have a shot at a cup but he has a heavy cap hit. With the injury situation we’re starving for nhl caliber players I don’t see us making any trades other than ahl/echl stuff sadly.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

I’d like to see Gallagher have a shot at a cup but he has a heavy cap hit. With the injury situation we’re starving for nhl caliber players I don’t see us making any trades other than ahl/echl stuff sadly.

Nobody wants Gallagher even if he came for free

 

[Jack Spider]

Nobody wants Gallagher even if he came for free

With that cap no of course, but he’s a good nhl player and warrior for the playoffs.

 

[Djp]

It's a guide, not a scientific or engineering level analysis.

To get a real handle on success vs draft you have to take a fixed period of let's say 20 years, take points and amount of games of drafted players. You will get an even sharper drop of drafting position vs points per player.

Regardless, the argument that a 27 year old NHL bottom 6 player worth a very long shot 3rd is absurd.

Deadline value of players is different rntirely.

successful teams in rebuilds needs to get players outside the top 15 picks. There is a high correlation of cup winners and having multiple top 10 picks

2+ full years at deadline is not common. Their values are going to be different.

rentals or 1+ yr left value depends on position and what they bring. Bottom 6 players should not get 1st outright.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

With that cap no of course, but he’s a good nhl player and warrior for the playoffs.

no hes not the guy is legit a black hole on the ice zero iq and takes stupid penalties every game