Brian39
Registered User
- Apr 24, 2014
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Interesting article on Jake Allen/Brent Johnson comparison.
Is Jake Allen headed down Brent Johnson’s path? - St. Louis Game Time
I saw this posted on reddit and I firmly believe that this is one of the worst pieces of goalie analysis I have read in a long time. This is long, but here is my response:
About half the comparisons are between the goalie who was the starter before Johnson/Allen. It's neat that each goalie wore number 1 and was traded to Calgary, but Turek put up far from astronomical numbers the year Johnson backed him up. His SV% and goals saved above average were both below the league average in the regular season and he was largely viewed as the achilles heel of an otherwise stacked team. On the other hand, Elliott actually did put up astronomical regular season numbers while he was here. The Blues turned to Johnson because Turek was objectively bad while Johnson was the backup. The Blues turned to Allen because they felt he was better than a goalie who was playing very well. Those just aren't similar situations.
Saying that Allen's career as a Blue, "looks an awful lot like Johnson's" isn't based on anything in reality. The author posts some stats to back up that claim, but ignores that his stats don't support the claim. The difference between a .914 and a .903 is gigantic, whether you adjust for era or not. For context, Allen's .914 is slightly above league average the last two years and slightly below the two years before that (league average has been either .913 or .915 over the last 4 years). Johnson's .903 was well below the league average while he was here (.903, .908, .909, and .911 were the averages in the 4 years he was here).
In the one year Johnson played a starter's load for the Blues, his SV% was 30th in the NHL among goalies with 30 or more starts. Bump that games played cutoff to 50 games and Johnson was 23rd of 27 NHL goalies. The next season, Johnson was supposed to be the starter, but only played 38 games due to an injury before the first game (this was the year we used 7 goalies, so he still had the most GP of Blues goalies). He returned in mid-December and played 32 of the next 41 games before getting hurt again. For the year, Johnson posted a .900 SV%, good for 30th among goalies with 30 or more games.
Jake Allen's SV% in his only full season as a starter was 17th out of goalies playing 30 or more games. Bump the GP requirement to 50 games and Allen is 12th out of 26 NHL goalies. The year before that, Allen played 47 games, but it's tough to call him a true starter since Elliott went God mode while he was hurt and never gave the net back. Still, through 47 games his SV% was .920, which was 13th among goalies with 30+ games and would have been tied for 7th among goalies with 50 games had he not fallen just short of that mark.
Using goals saved above average instead of SV%, Allen stopped 6.2 and 2.2 goals above average in the two years where he played the most games of any Blues goalie. Johnson stopped just over 7 below average in each of his two years playing more games than any other Blues goalie.
So you have one goalie who performed significantly below league average essentially his entire stint with the team and another who has been at or above average throughout his career as a Blue. Allen is struggling this season to about the same degree Johnson did in his last year as a Blue. The difference is that Allen has proven the ability to start in the NHL while Johnson quite literally never did.
Moving away from just performance, the team at no point committed to Johnson. The largest contract he ever got was for $1.1 mil for 1 year. He had the support of Q, but nothing about his tenure suggests that anyone else in the organization felt he was a long term solution. He was a late round draft pick by Colorado, he was moved before ever playing an NHL game and was never given a long term contract. Contrast that with Allen, the 34th overall pick who cleary has the backing of the front office and coaching staff. Allen's 4 year extension a year before hitting RFA should speak volumes about how much more the entire organization thinks of him than the organization thought of Brent Johnson.
They are both good puck handling goalies who were given the chance to start for the Blues in their early/mid 20s. That's about where the similarities end. One failed miserably and at no point actually played like a starting goalie. The other is Jake Allen.
TLDR: Johnson was a bad starting goalie the entire time he was with us. He had the crease out of necessity and at no point showed highs anything close to what Allen has done his entire career as a Blue. Allen has been average to above average his entire time here. He has consistency issues, which is a heck of a lot different than being consistently bad at the position.