I wonder if STI's argument that Swedish defensemen get overrated is coming in to play here. It will certainly be interesting to follow his career, especially if he gets picked high like Broberg.
I don't feel that "Swedes are overrated" so much as I feel that -- for whatever reason -- many draft writers check off the box on "hockey IQ" just because a player is Swedish. There are a lot of inconsistencies which I have highlighted time and time again where players of certain backgrounds have their hockey IQs unfairly questioned, while high hockey IQ is taken as a given with other backgrounds, primarily Swedish.
One dichotomy I have often referred to was Philip Broberg vs. K'Andre Miller. Both were unbelievable size and speed combinations in their draft eligible seasons, without a doubt. The physical tools were actually quite similar with these two, which is why they made for such an ideal comparison.
Broberg was universally seen as a top 10 pick, with his hockey IQ rarely questioned. Miller was often ranked in the second round, with his hockey IQ under consistent scrutiny. And yet, watching these two players -- Broberg was mistake prone, took inopportune offensive chances often, missed coverages with reckless abandon, and turned the puck over with alarming regularity. Miller? He had only played the defense position for slightly over a year after being converted from forward, and despite learning the position on the fly showed an enormous maturity and proclivity for the position. Sometimes he missed his gaps and was slightly off in positioning, but overall he displayed a keen understanding of the game and an enormous amount of intelligence.
So, how was Miller's IQ questioned while Broberg's was not? How was there an assumption that Broberg would magically figure things out posed by the very same writers who asked openly if Miller would ever figure things out? I'm not going to even dare to try to assume why K'Andre Miller would specifically have his hockey IQ questioned, because that's a whole new can of worms.
In 2018, I ranked K'Andre Miller 10th overall, the highest ranking he received anywhere. Now -- just three years later -- Miller is one of the three best defensemen on the New York Rangers, and looks to have top pairing, all-situations potential. In 2019, I ranked Broberg 48th overall, the lowest ranking he received anywhere. While I felt he had NHL potential, I felt it was as a third-pairing guy with maybe second-pairing upside. Two years later, the jury is still out. This past season he was up-and-down with Skelleftea of the SHL, still figuring out the game on the defensive side of the puck while scoring an okay 13 points in 44 games.
I still feel Broberg can compete for the NHL in two years or so, but in a 2019 re-draft Broberg likely goes towards the end of the first round, rather than 8th overall where he was taken. In a 2018 re-draft, K'Andre Miller is almost certainly a top 10 pick.
As far as Simon Edvinsson goes, I feel he's a stronger prospect than Broberg because, quite simply, he has a better understanding of the game and is far more advanced defensively at the same age. This is why I ranked Edvinsson in the middle of the first round. But would I call him a high hockey IQ player? No, I'd say he's above-average in that regard, but it's not necessarily a plus tool.
My problem lies not with Swedes -- as my #4 ranking of William Eklund and #10 ranking (as high as I've seen) for Isak Rosen would seem to indicate. If I were ranking the hockey IQ of every player in the 2021 draft, I would have Eklund -- a brilliant player -- atop that list. But it's not because he's Swedish, it's just because he's really, really smart.
If asked about Edvinsson -- and I often have been -- I feel he projects to an excellent second-pairing defender, who makes a difference every shift with his physicality and speed and defensive presence. Just having a guy on the ice with that type of ice coverage -- great skating and 6'5 wing-span -- is a benefit to your club's defensive efforts. I also feel he will excel in transition, with his skating and silky smooth set of hands. But I do not feel he will be a 40+ point player -- he has not shown this capability in his amateur career (1 goal, 11 assists in 38 games this past season over three leagues), and he does not feature high-end passing, shooting or hockey IQ necessary to create offense at the NHL level. So I'm ranking him in the same mid-first round region as the player from the 2020 draft I liken him the most to, which is Braden Schneider.
