If Canada plays their game over a full 60 minutes, they will win this one, likely by a couple of goals. Playing the Czechs was a good setup for the Russians, because they have a lot of similarities. The Czechs and Russians both have an explosive offence, highlighted by skilled centres and dynamic, highly skilled wingers. But both teams lack consistency, not only on a game-to-game basis, but a period-to-period basis. They also have a somewhat suspect defence. Even though Vokoun has struggled in this tournament, he's still one of the game's elite, and I like the Czechs' goaltending better than the Russians.
Canada needs to try to set a physical tone early, with a tough, hard forecheck on the Russian defence. Think back to what Canada did to the U.S. defence in the 2002 gold medal game. The American defence was hearing footsteps all night, and they were playing scared. If Canada rocks the Russian defence early and often, it will be a long night for whoever Russia starts in net. And Canada can't relent in their pressure, either. It has to be a full 60-minute effort. This Russian team is even more explosive than the one that nearly rallied from a four-goal deficit against Canada at last year's Worlds.
If Canada tries to get too cute and too fancy, then our players will be heading back to North America Thursday morning.
Briefer thoughts on the other games:
*Finland vs. the U.S.: Finland can't take them lightly. The U.S. remembers the Finns upsetting them in the World Cup semi-final. And Rick DiPietro has been excellent in this tournament. But nobody in this tournament has played a better team game than Finland, and they can excel in any situation. Finns win a close one.
*Czechs vs. Slovaks. One of hockey's great rivalries continues. Czechs have underachieved even more than Canada. Lots of talent, and one of the top five goalies in the game, but only two wins. Slovaks are loaded with uber-skilled players on the wings, and have never had a defence this good. The key is the Slovaks' goaltending. If they get the saves (which they've gotten so far), they advance. If they don't, Slovakia loses in lopsided fashion.
*Swiss vs. Swedes. Don't know exactly what Gustafson said, but the Swedes play today reflected that of a team not wanting to win. Swiss have had a tendency of playing to the level of their opponents in this tournament, and have two goalies capable of stealing games. You'd think after 2002, Swedes would have learned not to take an opponent lightly. Swiss will make the Swedes pay for hockey's ultimate mistake: underestimating your opponent.