It's January 2015 And The Sabres Are Hovering Around .500 .....

[Zip15]

No, not worried we'll be average, worried we'll be just a wee bit less horrible than 1-3 other bad teams.

When I said hovering around .500 I really meant like 5 games under which the way the league is these days is pretty close to the bottom in January.

I just don't see how we're not awful next season. We were the worst possession team in the league, and we just bought out the player who was, by far, our best possession player. Enroth and Neuvirth are going to be under siege for most of the season. I don't see either giving us the goaltending that Miller provided during his time here last season. Nor do I see us beating the percentages as the Leafs did for a period a time; we don't have Bernier-level goaltending, we don't have elite finishers around the net, and we're not going to have a PP that can help offset our 5-on-5 woes.

We had a -91 goal differential last year. That was the worst 82-game mark since the 2005-06 Blues, which occurred at a time when teams were patching rosters together after the first lockout. Looking the last three 82-game seasons, the 29th place team has had an average goal differential of -61.6. Think about that! We could improve by roughly 25-30 goals--a huge improvement--and still be the odds-on favorite to finish dead last.

 

[OkimLom]

IMO, I'm not too sure if we have the speed to be a team to be hovering around .500. With that said, if we were, you start selling your expendable assets.

Maybe I missed it, but have we learned of any other spots, besides #1, being affected by the new rules? If #2 and/or #3 are affected as well, even finishing 30th may not guarantee us one of them.

I think we will end up with some solid picks regardless if we don't pick McEichel. Just pick where you end up. Its an unnerving situation to not exactly know where you CAN end up depending on your position in the standings, but we aren't the only team that faces it. Imagine if we finish 27th and we win the lottery and the 30th place team doesn't get them. As much as we think it will hurt us it could help us as well.

I say let the chips lay where they fall. I have confidence in Murray that he can fill what is needed using some assets for pieces we will need to make us contenders.

 

[TimMcClure*]

If #2 and/or #3 are affected as well, even finishing 30th may not guarantee us one of them.

In typical NHL fashion they'll get around to the details the night before the 2015 draft. People seem to be assuming that for 2015 it's only the 1st pick that's affected but there hasn't been a word direct from the NHL on it.

 

[Chad Thundercock]

That would be terrible. But, I have faith that TM would do the right thing and still be a seller, at least.

Note that .500 in the NHL is still bad due to OT losses. .500 would have been 26th best in the league last year. Unless the Sabres are on pace for at least 90 points, sell sell sell.

 

[OkimLom]

In typical NHL fashion they'll get around to the details the night before the 2015 draft. People seem to be assuming that for 2015 it's only the 1st pick that's affected but there hasn't been a word direct from the NHL on it.

That's what I'm a little worried about. They will have to know, though, by the Draft lottery at least. Well I hope this anyway.

 

[stokes84]

You can compare last year's team to this one, but there are going to be a lot of differences that could lead to a big improvement. Last year, our GM was talking about suffering, our captain was checked out from day one (Vanek), the coach was in over his head, and there were kids playing before they were remotely close to ready. The tone was set before the first puck dropped. After that, things spiraled and even more players checked out.

The point of Free Agency and of having Nolan is to remedy some of rolling over this team did last year. They are still lacking in talent, but I think this team is going to be considerably more competitive than it was last year.

 

[haseoke39]

It's been reported that the proposal that went to the Player's Association for approval this month changes just the odds for 2015, and the number of picks affected for 2016.

Ted Black and Tim Murray have both confirmed this to the Buffalo News. I'm pretty sure TSN wrote a report on it as well.

 

[OkimLom]

It's been reported that the proposal that went to the Player's Association for approval this month changes just the odds for 2015, and the number of picks affected for 2016.

Ted Black and Tim Murray have both confirmed this to the Buffalo News. I'm pretty sure TSN wrote a report on it as well.

Thanks

 

[Karate Johnson*]

We have, frankly, one guy in the system who projects to be a first line forward. And that guy, Reinhart, was noted by many draft observers to be better suited to a 2C role in the long run.

I don't think we turn into a cup contender with what we have in the forward stable.

I think we have a reasonably good chance to aquire another first line forward out of all the first and second round picks next year. And the following year. And in FA or trades in the next 3-4 offseasons

 

[JOHNBOY]

Murray's already addressed this. He'll trade off the veterans (Stafford, Stewart, Meszaros, et al.). I really can't believe people are concerned that we'll even be average next season.

I have no doubt they will be bad next season, I am just worried that other teams will be worse if that makes any sense..

 

[Djp]

Murray's already addressed this. He'll trade off the veterans (Stafford, Stewart, Meszaros, et al.). I really can't believe people are concerned that we'll even be average next season.

Even if Buffalo was by chancve to be 500 in January....TM is smart enough to know the bigger picture is getting another decent pick in 2015.

While I do think its possible they sign Stafford or Stewart to an extension ===if not they move those 2, Meszaros, and one of the golies at the deadline.

 

[Irving Zisman]

Buffalo has the worst defensive center situation in the league unless Girgensons/Larsson are players. That's what will keep us at the bottom, and it's why a checking/PKing center was the one cagey vet Murray didn't target.

Very interesting perspective, sir. I almost made a thread arguing that we need one more vet center that could handle the heavy lifting in the d-zone to take pressure off of Samson and Girgs (and at the time was going to argue that Legwand would be a good fit as he was still a UFA).

I wonder if you're correct and that this was deliberately left off Murray's to do list. The guy clearly knows what he's doing, so you'd have to think he's very much aware of our abysmal lack of defense amongst our Centers...

 

[Chainshot]

Buffalo has the worst defensive center situation in the league unless Girgensons/Larsson are players. That's what will keep us at the bottom, and it's why a checking/PKing center was the one cagey vet Murray didn't target.

And it doesn't help that they shed another possession defenseman for a second straight off-season without replacing either with players who can start in the d-zone and end in the o-zone.

 

[haseoke39]

The big question for me is, does getting rid of all our low-hanging fruit (Stafford, Stewart, Meszaros, Neuvirth/Enroth) really make us much worse? Last year, some of our best players got jettisoned. This year, the UFA list is frankly pretty poor. It's certainly plausible that Stafford and Stewart aren't even top 6 players (Ennis, Hodgson, Reinhart, Gionta, Moulson, Girgensons) when they're dealt. It's very plausible Meszaros isn't in our top 4 when he gets dealt. Last season was very different.

You might deal off a couple of these guys and accidentally get better. If this is your pro-tank plan in the contingency where we need to exercise it, it's not a very promising one. I think you really have to hope Murray is getting this right from the start, because we'll have far less "tank ammo" to discharge from the roster than a lot of teams, and we won't be the only one trying to use it.

 

[ZeroPT*]

I just don't see how we're not awful next season. We were the worst possession team in the league, and we just bought out the player who was, by far, our best possession player. Enroth and Neuvirth are going to be under siege for most of the season. I don't see either giving us the goaltending that Miller provided during his time here last season. Nor do I see us beating the percentages as the Leafs did for a period a time; we don't have Bernier-level goaltending, we don't have elite finishers around the net, and we're not going to have a PP that can help offset our 5-on-5 woes.

We had a -91 goal differential last year. That was the worst 82-game mark since the 2005-06 Blues, which occurred at a time when teams were patching rosters together after the first lockout. Looking the last three 82-game seasons, the 29th place team has had an average goal differential of -61.6. Think about that! We could improve by roughly 25-30 goals--a huge improvement--and still be the odds-on favorite to finish dead last.

Very well said.

People worrying about the tank need to look at this post.

 

[jvirk]

If we're hovering around .500 then I'm hoping the Islanders are hovering around .300 LOL

 

[krt88]

Do you freak out? What does Tim Murray think of the situation and what does he do?

We know last year was an anomaly and unrepeatable. I've never seen a hockey team as incompetent relative to its' league competition as Ron Rolston's 2014 Buffalo Sabres. The team played markedly better for Ted Nolan, the results on the scoreboard were modestly improved. Pro-rated to a full 82 game schedule Nolan's Sabres would have finished 2013-14 with 67 points, 1 point ahead of Florida tied with Edmonton for 28/29th place. Nolan had a bunch of factors going against him, taking over a team partway through a season in complete disarray so mentally shot they couldn't complete 10 foot passes, an inherited coaching staff, key players with one foot out the door and others wondering where they'd finish the season and the one Nolan himself stressed many times, a lack of conditioning that could only be changed over an off season and training camp. I think the 2014-15 are 10 points better than Nolan's 2013-14 team which translates to 77 points and 27th place putting us in the 4 hole for the draft.

If you're a McDavid/Eichel or bust type fan than the enemy is Ted Nolan, Tyler Ennis, Drew Stafford and possibly Sam Reinhart. Ennis and Stafford came alive under Nolan and I expect they'll pick up where they left off last season. There is a real possibility that Reinhart shines as a rookie and gives the team a lift. We don't finish last if Reinhart makes an impact and Ted Nolan does what he's done before, getting a team to play above its talent level.

I think Murray would be fine with the team improving and I wouldn't expect him to try to steer us into a tailspin.

Thoughts?

If we are .500 at the mid-way point, I fire the entire coaching staff, and start taking buses to all the games, home and away. That road trip out west will become difficult to get points.

 

[Yatzhee]

Many good ideas here. I like the dump assets scenario brought by some. Obviously Gionta, Gorge's and Moulson will be staying, but dumping Stafford and/or Stewart may help garner that high end draft selection.

I'd really like the 1st over all pick this coming draft. If that means Ennis goes, then Ennis goes in my book.

 

[dire wolf]

If we are .500 at the mid-way point, I fire the entire coaching staff, and start taking buses to all the games, home and away. That road trip out west will become difficult to get points.

Apparently, you never saw Major League

 

[dire wolf]

You can compare last year's team to this one, but there are going to be a lot of differences that could lead to a big improvement. Last year, our GM was talking about suffering, our captain was checked out from day one (Vanek), the coach was in over his head, and there were kids playing before they were remotely close to ready. The tone was set before the first puck dropped. After that, things spiraled and even more players checked out.

The point of Free Agency and of having Nolan is to remedy some of rolling over this team did last year. They are still lacking in talent, but I think this team is going to be considerably more competitive than it was last year.

I agree with this. I think people are just looking at stats here and underestimating things like chemistry, conditioning, etc. Adding Gionta and Gorges and a full off-season and season of Nolan could - potentially - lead to larger improvements than you think. I'm pretty sure we're a bottom -5 team anyway, but I wouldn't guarantee 29 or 30.

 

[Karate Johnson*]

Another pro-tank point.... Even if our opening night roster plays all out because Ted Nolan is a great motivator it's really not going to matter. When it becomes obvious that we aren't making the playoffs the effort will wane. It's just human nature.

Also injuries. We have no depth whatsoever and guys will definately get hurt.



That said, whatever happens happens. Our future ability to win cups isn't contingent on a certain draft pick. Obviously drafting the best guy helps, but the rebuild can be accomplished without mceichel.

 

[ZeroPT*]

I agree with this. I think people are just looking at stats here and underestimating things like chemistry, conditioning, etc. Adding Gionta and Gorges and a full off-season and season of Nolan could - potentially - lead to larger improvements than you think. I'm pretty sure we're a bottom -5 team anyway, but I wouldn't guarantee 29 or 30.

we downgraded in goal big time
We downgraded in possession with the loss of Ehrhoff
Our transition is awful

We'll be trapped in our own end a lot.

I also don't know what "a full season of Nolan" means. He's not an amazing coach, and we don't even know our whole staff.

I'm almost 90% sure we're in bottom 2.

 

[Jacob582]

Plus, TM has labeled this team a non-playoff team. The expectations have been set.

 

[dire wolf]

we downgraded in goal big time
We downgraded in possession with the loss of Ehrhoff
Our transition is awful

We'll be trapped in our own end a lot.

I also don't know what "a full season of Nolan" means. He's not an amazing coach, and we don't even know our whole staff.

I'm almost 90% sure we're in bottom 2.

I happen to like Nolan, but I realize not everyone does. Regardless, compared to Ronny Rolston, he's Scotty Bowman. Also, not having Assistant Tank Commander Sacco behind the bench has to be worth a few points too.

Anyway, we'll just have to wait and see. I'm not going to cry if we look like an improved team this year, tank be damned.

 

[ZeroPT*]

I happen to like Nolan, but I realize not everyone does. Regardless, compared to Ronny Rolston, he's Scotty Bowman. Also, not having Assistant Tank Commander Sacco behind the bench has to be worth a few points too.

Anyway, we'll just have to wait and see. I'm not going to cry if we look like an improved team this year, tank be damned.

He's a good coach but this team is atrocious.

Scotty Bowman himself couldn't drag this team out of last place.