Blue Jays Discussion: It's a bird, it's a plane, it's Kevin Pillar!

[Discoverer]

There's countless examples.

After buying in on prospect rankings and being forced to deny the stats so often with jays prospects, the last straw for me was Kyle Drabek. A guy whose numbers clearly didn't support his tools ranking, at all. Yet I trusted the rankings anyways. After that debacle, I'd had it with ignoring the numbers I knew were important.

After that it became surprisingly easy to spot overrated prospects (Drabek, Stewart, Wallace, Hoffman) and underrated prospects (Thor, Osuna, Stroman, Travis).

If we're just scouting the stats, Aaron Sanchez would fit nicely in that "overrated prospects" category. How many prospects have a K-BB% of ~6% in the upper minors and become dominant major league starters?

While that's a nice little list, and we tend to agree on many prospect valuations, it would be really, really easy to put together a list of recent prospects who were overrated/underrated by minor league stats as well.

 

[zeke]

Yep, Sanchez definitely beat the stats, and I was guilty of underrating him.

 

[zeke]

That being said - I try to learn from my mistakes, like when I ignored Snider's strikeouts.

With Sanchez, he was just another lesson in the importance of age vs. level.

After all, when you consider age (i.e. a year young for all these levels), these performances are actually pretty dang good:

A (19): 2.49era, 3.56fip, 3.70xfip
A+ (20): 3.34era, 3.67fip, 3.56xfip
AA (21): 3.82era, 4.16fip, 4.28xfip
AAA (21): 4.19era, 4.87fip, 4.03xfip (2yrs young)


and actually well good enough to support an "elite prospect" rating along with his tools.

Not to mention that he, along with Stroman, were also good lessons for me in the importance of groundball rate.

 

[metafour]

And thanks for your advice as to what is valuable, but I'm quite happy with how my stat-line scouting has turned out in real life.

Its a well known fact that tools are much more important than stats in the lower minors. This is because the quality of play is so low that stats can easily deceive you: a guy with a really high walk rate doesn't necessarily mean he has a "great eye", and the opposite could simply mean a kid who is seeing and hitting everything which doesn't mean he can't take a walk otherwise. Furthermore gimmick junkball pitchers can routinely thrive off the backbone of things like odd deliveries which MLB hitters would pick up easily, and "dominate" low-minors hitters. Again, there is ALWAYS a physical aspect to what is actually happening on the field.

If you're going to be a "numbers guy", at least understand the obvious limitations...like the fact that rates in A-ball aren't going to give you a super consistent portrail of what is actually happening.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Its a well known fact that tools are much more important than stats in the lower minors. This is because the quality of play is so low that stats can easily deceive you: a guy with a really high walk rate doesn't necessarily mean he has a "great eye", and the opposite could simply mean a kid who is seeing and hitting everything which doesn't mean he can't take a walk otherwise. Furthermore gimmick junkball pitchers can routinely thrive off the backbone of things like odd deliveries which MLB hitters would pick up easily, and "dominate" low-minors hitters. Again, there is ALWAYS a physical aspect to what is actually happening on the field.

If you're going to be a "numbers guy", at least understand the obvious limitations...like the fact that rates in A-ball aren't going to give you a super consistent portrail of what is actually happening.

Interesting. And at what level, in your opinion, would you say the statistics should starting bearing some extra weight?

 

[zeke]

Its a well known fact that tools are much more important than stats in the lower minors. This is because the quality of play is so low that stats can easily deceive you: a guy with a really high walk rate doesn't necessarily mean he has a "great eye", and the opposite could simply mean a kid who is seeing and hitting everything which doesn't mean he can't take a walk otherwise. Furthermore gimmick junkball pitchers can routinely thrive off the backbone of things like odd deliveries which MLB hitters would pick up easily, and "dominate" low-minors hitters. Again, there is ALWAYS a physical aspect to what is actually happening on the field.

If you're going to be a "numbers guy", at least understand the obvious limitations...like the fact that rates in A-ball aren't going to give you a super consistent portrail of what is actually happening.

roberto osuna and thor syndergaard say hi.

you may want to consider that i know more about this than you, btw

 

[metafour]

Sanchez shows the importance of age vs. level? Don't make me laugh. Sanchez shows the importance of what an absolutely elite ~1% fastball means. He came up as a reliever and was able to stifle hitters with literally one pitch thrown repeatedly. That has basically continued as he's moved into the rotation as he's still throwing ~75% fastballs.

Sanchez is pure traditional scouting. All he had to do was learn how to stay within the strike zone and that was it, because even when he misses with his fastball it moves and is hard to barrel up. The important thing to note is that even with horrendous minor league walk rates and entire seasons wherein he had no idea where the ball was going, he still managed to gain enough control. This obviously is rare, but it shows what pure tools actually mean. The same goes for someone like Chris Davis on offense who looked hopeless until he one day learned how to make enough contact to allow his god-given power to work.

 

[zeke]

absolutely yes, sanchez' numbers were more impressive than they looked, due to age/level.

 

[metafour]

roberto osuna and thor syndergaard say hi.

you may want to consider that i know more about this than you, btw

You mean two guys with plus-plus stuff?

I didn't realize that Thor was a 85mph junkballer putting up a 13 K/9 in A-ball.

A lot of what you think is "guys with great Sabermetrics" is simply guys with absolutely elite stuff...which is kind of why they're able to put those numbers up in the first place. The impressive thing about Thor in A-ball wasn't his K/9 or BB/9, it was simply the fast that he was able to spot a ~98 mph fastball wherever he wanted...at age 19-20. This is a much bigger TELL than whatever raw data he had.

 

[zeke]

and you keep bringing up examples of statistical outliers, without even mentioning the tools outliers.

Mooke Betts demolished A and A+ at 20, yet the tools scouts ignored him because he was small and because apparently statz don't matter at those levels. oops.

 

[metafour]

absolutely yes, sanchez' numbers were more impressive than they looked, due to age/level.

You should be a comedian.

Sanchez's raw numbers were abysmal by any sabermetrical analysis. But OK, he was actually GREAT because he was 1-2 years younger than the norm .

So what, we move Greene up to the MLB and all of a sudden his numbers are good because he's kind of young?

 

[zeke]

You mean two guys with plus-plus stuff?

I didn't realize that Thor was a 85mph junkballer putting up a 13 K/9 in A-ball.

A lot of what you think is "guys with great Sabermetrics" is simply guys with absolutely elite stuff...which is kind of why they're able to put those numbers up in the first place. The impressive thing about Thor in A-ball wasn't his K/9 or BB/9, it was simply the fast that he was able to spot a ~98 mph fastball wherever he wanted...at age 19-20. This is a much bigger TELL than whatever raw data he had.

The numbers showed both Thor and Osuna were elite prospects long before the scouts you love figured it out.

in fact, most of the scouts you love dismissed thor as a reliever thanks to his lack of tools.

 

[zeke]

You should be a comedian.

Sanchez's raw numbers were abysmal by any sabermetrical analysis. But OK, he was actually GREAT because he was 1-2 years younger than the norm .

So what, we move Greene up to the MLB and all of a sudden his numbers are good because he's kind of young?

Sanchez numbers were quite good for someone at his age and level.

Just because you don't know this, doesn't mean it's not true.

And Hoffman putting up similar numbers while 2 years older was unimpressive for that very same reason.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Kyle Hendricks was 22, in A+, with an 88 Mph fastball, sporting an FIP of 2.95, sporting a K/BB of 7.47. So...that's a thing.

Collin McHugh was 23, in A, with an 90 Mph fastball, sporting an FIP of 3.39 and K/BB...then at 24, in AA, an FIP of 2.83.

Hilariously, both also old for his respective level. I guess these examples just show that you could both learn from each other rather than being completely closed off to other's perspective.

 

[zeke]

and yes, Greene pitchint just as well as he is now would result in lesser stats at higher levels.

 

[zeke]

Kyle Hendricks was 22, in A+, with an 88 Mph fastball, sporting an FIP of 2.95, sporting a K/BB of 7.47. So...that's a thing.

Collin McHugh was 23, in A, with an 90 Mph fastball, sporting an FIP of 3.39 and K/BB...then at 24, in AA, an FIP of 2.83.

Hilariously, both also old for his respective level. I guess these examples just show that you could both learn from each other rather than being completely closed off to other's perspective.

the idea that i'm closed off from the tools perspective is a figment of his imagination.

 

[metafour]

The numbers showed both Thor and Osuna were elite prospects long before the scouts you love figured it out.

in fact, most of the scouts you love dismissed thor as a reliever thanks to his lack of tools.

"The scouts I love"...you mean the ones that made Thor a comp 1st round pick and made Osuna one of the most expensive signings in his IFA class ?

I didn't realize that scouts hated those two. Wasn't Thor a headliner in the Dickey trade as an A-baller?

You're grasping at straws. Scouts loved Osuna's stuff. The concern was his weight and then his mechanics. The weight worked itself out, and mechanically he DID blow out his elbow despite throwing barely any innings. Mechanics also pushed him into the bullpen full-time regardless of people still calling to convert him (it ain't happening). Thor's lack of a secondary pitch was known, but this was a concern because historically pitchers who struggle to spin a breaking ball rarely end up learning that skill. He ended up doing it, but to state that scouts "hated him" is a complete fabrication LOL.

You seem to be living in some world wherein those two were undrafted guys plucked off the streets. Both were highly recognized prospects, with outstanding arms.

 

[zeke]

i've had this argument so many times. swihart is a top 10 prospect despite middling stats because tools. gausman is a better prospect than stroman despite lesser numbers because tools. Travis is a non prospect becausee tools.

but don't ya know that tools are not enough.

 

[zeke]

"The scouts I love"...you mean the ones that made Thor a comp 1st round pick and made Osuna one of the most expensive signings in his IFA class ?

I didn't realize that scouts hated those two. Wasn't Thor a headliner in the Dickey trade as an A-baller?

You're grasping at straws. Scouts loved Osuna's stuff. The concern was his weight and then his mechanics. The weight worked itself out, and mechanically he DID blow out his elbow despite throwing barely any innings. Mechanics also pushed him into the bullpen full-time regardless of people still calling to convert him (it ain't happening). Thor's lack of a secondary pitch was known, but this was a concern because historically pitchers who struggle to spin a breaking ball rarely end up learning that skill. He ended up doing it, but to state that scouts "hated him" is a complete fabrication LOL.

You seem to be living in some world wherein those two were undrafted guys plucked off the streets. Both were highly recognized prospects, with outstanding arms.

You seem to be living in a world where i don't care about tools. That's a stupid world to live in.

Fact remains - the stats showed thor and osuna were elite prospects long before your prospect rankers did.

 

[phillipmike]

Salty is back on a minor league deal

 

[Woodman19]

Sanchez didn't become a dominant starting pitcher until he added more lower body strength to help him consistently repeat his delivery. A purely physical development that lead to improved numbers. Everything as a pitcher is built off a fastball and once he harnessed his, the secondary stuff naturally added more bite.

Age at the minors didn't really have anything to do with it, you can argue that he should never have went to AA with his command what it was having then.

Also, does anyone remember when we were rumoured to be in on Bruce after his first down year and the Reds wanted Sanchez who half the people here would have done based on just numbers?

 

[zeke]

And even the tools vs stats is a stupid simplification. This is about you regurgitating online prospect rankings and mocking anyone who doesn't agree with them. that's all.

you probably agreed with them that Nicolino was a legit part of our "big three", despite his sub-90 velo, when I was boggled by it.....based on TOOLS.

 

[zeke]

Sanchez didn't become a dominant starting pitcher until he added more lower body strength to help him consistently repeat his delivery. A purely physical development that lead to improved numbers. Everything as a pitcher is built off a fastball and once he harnessed his, the secondary stuff naturally added more bite.

Age at the minors didn't really have anything to do with it, you can argue that he should never have went to AA with his command what it was having then.

adding strength and physical control and repeatability, of course, is inextricably linked with age.

 

[metafour]

Fact remains - the stats showed thor and osuna were elite prospects long before your prospect rankers did.

And who said I loved "prospect rankers"?

You seem to for some reason be confusing actual scouts and scouting with baseball writers. Uhm, when I say "actual scouting matters"...I'm not talking about what Keith Law says. In fact, my point about Pentecost was about a REAL SCOUT employed by a BASEBALL TEAM.

 

[TF97]

Salty is back on a minor league deal

I figured this would happen. They could use the depth.