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Pre-Game Talk: islanders vs leafs-Clinch time VII

  • Thread starter Thread starter mikebel111*
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Hurt said:
0-5-0 94.2%

That means that if they go 0-5-0, there is a 94.2% chance they will make the playoffs. Of course they haven't clinched yet but apparently we have very differing views on what 'very' means.
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Aaaannnnnd the point has been made my friends.

okay everyone go back to talking about the game against the islanders. nothing else to see here, move it along folks.
 
Suntouchable13 said:
We need the Jets to lose as well. If I am correct then a win here and a win by the Jets reduces our magic number to 2. And then next game becomes win and we're in scenario.
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That's half right and half wrong. The magic number would indeed be 2 points. With that said; we would also clinch with the Jets gaining a single point. An OTL for the Jets and a Leafs win will clinch the spot (maybe not according to nhl.com; but it would truly be the case).

The Jets would not be able to catch up in ROW (thanks to winning in a shootout last). Leafs would have 25 ROW with a regulation win; the Jets would only be able to obtain 24 ROW in total; if they got an OTL. The best they could do is tie if they won the rest of their games and the Leafs lost all of their games with no points.

The Leafs win the tie breaker with a regulation win and a single Jets OTL.
 
BayStBullies said:
That's half right and half wrong. The magic number would indeed be 2 points. With that said; we would also clinch with the Jets gaining a single point. An OTL for the Jets and a Leafs win will clinch the spot (maybe not according to nhl.com; but it would truly be the case).

The Jets would not be able to catch up in ROW (thanks to winning in a shootout last). Leafs would have 25 ROW with a regulation win; the Jets would only be able to obtain 24 ROW in total; if they got an OTL. The best they could do is tie if they won the rest of their games and the Leafs lost all of their games with no points.

The Leafs win the tie breaker with a regulation win and a single Jets OTL.
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Let's not forget...

Ottawa also has to win 2 of 6 remaining games.
NYI has to win 2.5 (1 OT loss) of 5 remaining games.
NYR has to win 4 of 6 remaining games.

All that, coupled with Winnipeg winning 4/5 and Leafs going 0-5-0 in order for us to miss the playoffs and you've gotta think we're pretty much a shoe in at this point.
 
Offspring said:
Let's not forget...

Ottawa also has to win 2 of 6 remaining games.
NYI has to win 2.5 (1 OT loss) of 5 remaining games.
NYR has to win 4 of 6 remaining games.

All that, coupled with Winnipeg winning 4/5 and Leafs going 0-5-0 in order for us to miss the playoffs and you've gotta think we're pretty much a shoe in at this point.
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Further narrowed a little by the Islanders playing Winnipeg this Saturday - where one of them will lose at least a point.
 
The teams always plays better when reimer is in net, so I have a feeling leafs will win this one.
 
So sick of seeing all those advanced stats being used to try to say the Leafs will flame out!!

a defensive system that keeps players to the outside and is set up to try to reduce quality scoring chances is going to give skewed shot differential, puck possession and due to many out side shots being held more an increase in defensive zone faceoffs. I remember the Habs that knocked off the Caps and Pens playing an almost identical system in the playoffs.

Also the Leafs have the scoring skill to score off of the rush(suites to the system they play) or if Carlyle lets the D activate then with guys like JVR, Kulemin, Kadri, McArthur they can play the grinding cycle as well.

IMO it doesn't matter who the Leafs play cuz their gonna get their buts kicked if they can't ratchet up their play to match skilled desperation. The Leafs normally play a way better team game than the Caps but the Caps are soo hungry and skating 125% right now and when facing that my Leafs folded like a wet Leaf in the wind.

So I need to see my Leafs show some heart and desperation going into the playoffs. I would much rather see the Leafs loose a 3-2 game that was played at 125% then a 6-1 but kicking of the Isles.

If I was the Isles I would be a little concerned because the Leafs are coming off of what I consider 2 of their worst games this season and I expect them to be angry, hungry and out for blood.
 
Offspring said:
Let's not forget...

Ottawa also has to win 2 of 6 remaining games.
NYI has to win 2.5 (1 OT loss) of 5 remaining games.
NYR has to win 4 of 6 remaining games.

All that, coupled with Winnipeg winning 4/5 and Leafs going 0-5-0 in order for us to miss the playoffs and you've gotta think we're pretty much a shoe in at this point.
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I do not like our chances :sarcasm:
 
bobbyt911 said:
So sick of seeing all those advanced stats being used to try to say the Leafs will flame out!!

a defensive system that keeps players to the outside and is set up to try to reduce quality scoring chances is going to give skewed shot differential, puck possession and due to many out side shots being held more an increase in defensive zone faceoffs. I remember the Habs that knocked off the Caps and Pens playing an almost identical system in the playoffs.

Also the Leafs have the scoring skill to score off of the rush(suites to the system they play) or if Carlyle lets the D activate then with guys like JVR, Kulemin, Kadri, McArthur they can play the grinding cycle as well.

IMO it doesn't matter who the Leafs play cuz their gonna get their buts kicked if they can't ratchet up their play to match skilled desperation. The Leafs normally play a way better team game than the Caps but the Caps are soo hungry and skating 125% right now and when facing that my Leafs folded like a wet Leaf in the wind.

So I need to see my Leafs show some heart and desperation going into the playoffs. I would much rather see the Leafs loose a 3-2 game that was played at 125% then a 6-1 but kicking of the Isles.

If I was the Isles I would be a little concerned because the Leafs are coming off of what I consider 2 of their worst games this season and I expect them to be angry, hungry and out for blood.
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Good post - I like you.

People who deem advanced statistics as the only means of determining success/failure are incredibly annoying and tend to be extremely arrogant. It's obvious our shot% won't stay that high, but it's that high cause of our depth and skill, not cause we're "lucky" like PDO suggests.

Puck possession is important too - we need to start skating more in our end and be more aggressive imo.
 
SeenSchenn2 said:
Good post - I like you.

People who deem advanced statistics as the only means of determining success/failure are incredibly annoying and tend to be extremely arrogant. It's obvious our shot% won't stay that high, but it's that high cause of our depth and skill, not cause we're "lucky" like PDO suggests.

Puck possession is important too - we need to start skating more in our end and be more aggressive imo.
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I agree 100% especially if the Leafs are down. They are too passive in their own zone and allow too much time to pass.

Either way if we don't see a million times the effort we saw against NJ or the Caps then it will be a short post season.
 
i just want the little x.
i'm jealous now. Montreal has one, Boston has one, Anaheim, Pittsburgh and Chicago has one...

:( where's ours!
 
Can't stand this team, they seem to have our number :/ Not to mention it's on Leafs TV!

Nevertheless, time to clinch. Go :leafs Go
 
Hope the guys can skate with some life and play for more than 10 minutes.
 
Kadri has a love for scoring on the isles so I strongly expect a good game from him. Hopefully him and Lupul will start a mean streak again. God knows we need one.
 
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