Speculation: Isaac Howard & Tampa's Cap Crunch

I would say I'm pretty adamantly pro-player over pro-ownership group but this perspective is so odd to me, being assigned to an AHL team isn't a death sentence and it's incredibly likely that Howard plays in the A when he leaves college no matter where he goes.

I don't blame Howard for doing what's best for him, but if it really comes down to "If I don't get a guaranteed roster spot next season I'm not signing" then how is that anything but entitlement?
Howard is making the decision he believes is best for himself and his career. Every player in free agency is doing the same thing.

Is every player in free agency entitled?
 
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I would say I'm pretty adamantly pro-player over pro-ownership group but this perspective is so odd to me, being assigned to an AHL team isn't a death sentence and it's incredibly likely that Howard plays in the A when he leaves college no matter where he goes.

I don't blame Howard for doing what's best for him, but if it really comes down to "If I don't get a guaranteed roster spot next season I'm not signing" then how is that anything but entitlement?

tough call. to me it's not entitlement if he does not like the situation in tampa and his default position is he'd rather play out his ncaa eligibility and become a ufa. it's also not entitlement if he would rather spend a year in the ncaa and improve his chances of stepping onto an nhl roster rather than a year in the ahl. those are rational decisions. the ahl is going to have to clean up its act to compete with the new ncaa reforms or deal with this situation a lot more. right now it's a place you get paid pennies to risk your career against goons in a downmarket situation. for all the "riding the buses builds character" stuff, it looks ridiculous as a choice compared to an ncaa season in a good program and continuing to get a free education.

let's give him the benefit of the doubt. assume the player sees himself logjammed in tampa as a top 6 of bust prospect and/or expects tampa to follow a protracted ahl development path for him because that's what they do. assume also howard does not like the future for tampa due to its aging core and constant win now use of draft assets. therefore, he's really not jazzed to be in tampa and is prepared to wait a year to go somewhere else.

now he can say to himself, "if tampa tells me they see me on the big team roster next year that addresses some concerns. i will forget my misgivings and sign, but if they can't give me any comfort i'd rather play another year then go elsewhere rather than be buried in the ahl for tampa and make the nhl roster just in time to be a lottery team. not to mention playing another year of ncaa is no great hardship and makes it more likely i can step into an nhl roster and avoid the ahl rather than signing this year."
 
I think the real disappointment in it all is that he seems to think he has no path forward, and to that I say if you think you can't hack it with this group and make your way in, at least you're being honest with yourself about it. While its easy to look at the Points and Kucherovs and Guentzels of the world/roster here, they're still sending Girgensons out there for meaningful shifts. The team needs affordable depth and he could fit that bill. Careers are fleeting, injuries happen, etc etc. If you need an easier path to the league and guarantees, good luck.

I get not spending a ton of time in Siberacuse, but come to camp and take a job. You can't beat out Cam Atkinson? You can't beat out Zemgus Girgensons? Luke Glendening? Mitchell Chaffee? Come on, man. You would get limited minutes, sure, but you also get sweetheart matchups while the rest of the league tries to figure out how to stop 86.

I think there is another significant thing that maybe hasn't surfaced or showed its face yet and that is teams having to now compete against NIL deals and money while a player walks his way to free agency, which is becoming more common, and teams aren't always a fan of players getting more collective bargaining rights :laugh: I can imagine you'll see some owners complain about this in the next CBA.
Let's say you were deciding between two job offers. One says they envision you as an important team-member right away, want you to onboard and get started ASAP. The other is probably a bit more prestigious, but they tell you that in 3 months you can come on for a trial period after which they may want you but they may not. Is it entitled to choose option #1?
 
Don't blame Howard at all here. He just won the Hobey Baker, and coming back for his senior year he'd probably be the most marketable player in college hockey. His NIL money will definitely exceed what he'd make on an ELC in the AHL. By staying and making more money he can pick his destination in 2026 too. Seems like a no-brainer.

I wonder if he follows Savage and Augustine to Detroit, or goes closer to home with Chicago or Minnesota. Or what would be really hilarious, Florida.
 
Don't blame Howard at all here. He just won the Hobey Baker, and coming back for his senior year he'd probably be the most marketable player in college hockey. His NIL money will definitely exceed what he'd make on an ELC in the AHL. By staying and making more money he can pick his destination in 2026 too. Seems like a no-brainer.

I wonder if he follows Savage and Augustine to Detroit, or goes closer to home with Chicago or Minnesota. Or what would be really hilarious, Florida.
If he’s looking for immediate playing time I’d say there’s about a 0% chance he goes to Florida.

Let's say you were deciding between two job offers. One says they envision you as an important team-member right away, want you to onboard and get started ASAP. The other is probably a bit more prestigious, but they tell you that in 3 months you can come on for a trial period after which they may want you but they may not. Is it entitled to choose option #1?
I mean this also operates under the assumption that whatever team signs him is going to give him a spot in the lineup. There is a spot in the lineup that Howard could take on the second line but Tampa would want him to earn it through his play (like literally every other home-grown talent in the lineup) rather than promising it to him because of his draft position.

Like I said I don’t blame Howard for doing what’s best for him, but I do think if he needs a guaranteed spot on the roster (despite being completely unproven!) for him to sign then he’s probably not a fit to begin with.
 
Let's say you were deciding between two job offers. One says they envision you as an important team-member right away, want you to onboard and get started ASAP. The other is probably a bit more prestigious, but they tell you that in 3 months you can come on for a trial period after which they may want you but they may not. Is it entitled to choose option #1?
In the end you have to do what is right for yourself, because the careers are paid with your body and are wildly short. I would never fault a guy for that in the slightest. But I would also say, this really isn't a good comparison or explanation, nobody is asking him to take a trial period or play for free or anything else that might be implied there, they just aren't willing to throw him into the lineup like he is the missing piece.
 
Don't blame Howard at all here. He just won the Hobey Baker, and coming back for his senior year he'd probably be the most marketable player in college hockey. His NIL money will definitely exceed what he'd make on an ELC in the AHL. By staying and making more money he can pick his destination in 2026 too. Seems like a no-brainer.

I wonder if he follows Savage and Augustine to Detroit, or goes closer to home with Chicago or Minnesota. Or what would be really hilarious, Florida.

He’d be instantly welcomed in Detroit. The wings could offer him a top 6 spot almost immediately upon signing.
 
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all this talk about NIL but we truly have no idea how much they are getting paid.

Kinda strange considering it’s much more out in the open for football and other college sports.

Either way he makes more money in the AHL and a 6-7 game trial in the NHL then I think he does in NCAA, this ain’t college football and they aren’t getting paid like it. Plus if he is as good as he thinks he is he makes the team right out of camp or gets called up because he is too good for the AHL.
 
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Chicago and Tampa make a too much sense here - Nazar and Howard have some history, they need NHL ready talent and have a ton of draft capital and prospects, can even toss in Reichel as a project for TB to see if they can get him right and he's cheap, Howard turns pro this summer and Chicago gives him an ELC with all the bonus money. Could even be part of a potentially larger deal if TB wants to unload some cap on a short term dump
 
-Make less money, play in Syracuse, hope Tampa has a spot for you.
-Make more money, play and live in a college environment, pick your team in a year.

It's not complicated.

Super lame that NHL GM's can trade, bury, and waiver wire guys every year and it's "just a business" but the second the situation is flipped and a player uses some of the little leverage they possess it becomes an attack on their character and they're "entitled."

I have no problem with players using leverage to get what they want out of a contract, but he wants a guaranteed NHL roster spot over better players. Maybe not entitled, but he's certainly undeserving, and I don't mean in the sense that he needs to earn his dues or anything, he's just buried.

I don't buy the money argument, if he's good he'll have no problem getting enough NHL games to earn more than he would with NIL through call up or even straight out of camp like Geekie did. This is about a player wanting an easier path through the NHL and that's fine. However, I do think the Lightning are right to say no.
 
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I have no problem with players using leverage to get what they want out of a contract, but he wants a guaranteed NHL roster spot over better players. Maybe not entitled, but he's certainly undeserving, and I don't mean in the sense that he needs to earn his dues or anything, he's just buried.

I don't buy the money argument, if he's good he'll have no problem getting enough NHL games to earn more than he would with NIL through call up or even straight out of camp like Geekie did. This is about a player wanting an easier path through the NHL and that's fine. However, I do think the Lightning are right to say no.
Who are these alleged better players?

I dont blame him, he just wants what other prospects coming out of college the last few weeks have been given. Leonard, Snuggured, Perreault...
 
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Honestly, not a fan of the college rules about being able to choose a team after awhile.
It's not a "loophole" But a pretty silly rule.
If you get drafted by a team, they should be restricted to that team period, baring a trade.
 
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Honestly, not a fan of the college rules about being able to choose a team after awhile.
It's not a "loophole" But a pretty silly rule.
If you get drafted by a team, they should be restricted to that team period, baring a trade.
What the spirit behind the "4 year ncaa UFA" rule anyways? Why's it in place?
 
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I have no problem with players using leverage to get what they want out of a contract, but he wants a guaranteed NHL roster spot over better players. Maybe not entitled, but he's certainly undeserving, and I don't mean in the sense that he needs to earn his dues or anything, he's just buried.

I don't buy the money argument, if he's good he'll have no problem getting enough NHL games to earn more than he would with NIL through call up or even straight out of camp like Geekie did. This is about a player wanting an easier path through the NHL and that's fine. However, I do think the Lightning are right to say no.
To be clear, I don't think either party is at fault here. Brisbois' job is to be responsible for looking after the team, and Howard is responsible for looking out for himself.

Brisbois isn't stupid. He knows when he uses the last of the team's cap space to sign players at the deadline, the ability to sign a player like Howard at the end of the year becomes an impossibility. That's fine. He's trying to win a cup this year, as he should.

The result of that is that a D+3 player is no longer really incentivized to sign with the team that drafted him. Again, Brisbois knows this and it's hard to say that he made the wrong decision with the position Tampa is in. I don't think Howard is making the wrong decision either.

The circumstances for the team and player just lined up poorly.
 
What the spirit behind the "4 year ncaa UFA" rule anyways? Why's it in place?
It's actually longer than in the CHL and other leagues. The difference is players can sign the ELC any time and be re-assigned to the CHL. But NCAA players cant sign the ELC and go back to the NCAA, they can only go to the minors or a junior league (if they haven't aged out)

Tyler Boucher is a recent notable example, he signed his ELC midway through the season while in college, and immediately left for the CHL team who owned his rights
 
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It's actually longer than in the CHL and other leagues. The difference is players can sign the ELC any time and be re-assigned to the CHL. But NCAA players cant sign the ELC and go back to the NCAA, they can only go to the minors or a junior league (if they haven't aged out)

Tyler Boucher is a recent notable example, he signed his ELC midway through the season while in college, and immediately left for the CHL team who owned his rights
So whats the reasoning behind this? and why dont any chl players just hold out 3 years or whatever and go UFA then?
 
It's actually longer than in the CHL and other leagues. The difference is players can sign the ELC any time and be re-assigned to the CHL. But NCAA players cant sign the ELC and go back to the NCAA, they can only go to the minors or a junior league (if they haven't aged out)
Yeah, it's a huge misconception that it's a rule that only applies to college players. Players from other leagues can do it if they want, they just don't typically have the ammunition to carry it out.
 
So whats the reasoning behind this? and why dont any chl players just hold out 3 years or whatever and go UFA then?
CHL players can participate in training camps and preseason and hope to make the team. Also have the chance of the 8 game tryout, emergency recalls, end of season callups. Thats their incentive for signing, they can be more a part of the organization.

The NCAA doesn't allow players to participate in any "professional" activities, hence the no contracts, training camps, etc. If players want to participate in the summer rookie camp for their team, they have to pay their own way.
 
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So whats the reasoning behind this? and why dont any chl players just hold out 3 years or whatever and go UFA then?
It does happen

NHL teams hold CHL rights for 2 years after drafting (roughly until they become an overager and can sign to the ECHL and AHL)
NHL teams hold NCAA rights for 4 years after drafting (roughly the length of a college program)

There are some exceptions to that, like if a player doesn't start college right away, or if they choose to leave school early, but that's about enough to get by.

You do occasionally see CHL players signing with other NHL teams other than the one that drafted them, but not as often as NCAA players.
1) CHL players go back into the draft after their 2 years, before they can sign as a FA
2) NCAA players' rights expire when they are older, more developed, and closer to ready for the NHL, thus, making them more desirable as a FA. An expiring CHLer, on the other hand is just more of a crapshoot still, like a draft pick, and you may as well wait and/or let them play minor pro first.

NHL teams are willing to take a bigger swing with an ELC on older, more developed 22-24 year olds who have been playing against 18-25 year olds than the 19-21 year olds who have been playing against 16-21 year olds at a lower level.


But as an example, last year, CHLer Max McCue went unsigned by San Jose, passed over in the re-draft, went back to the CHL, and then signed with Columbus.
 
If he’s looking for immediate playing time I’d say there’s about a 0% chance he goes to Florida.


I mean this also operates under the assumption that whatever team signs him is going to give him a spot in the lineup. There is a spot in the lineup that Howard could take on the second line but Tampa would want him to earn it through his play (like literally every other home-grown talent in the lineup) rather than promising it to him because of his draft position.

Like I said I don’t blame Howard for doing what’s best for him, but I do think if he needs a guaranteed spot on the roster (despite being completely unproven!) for him to sign then he’s probably not a fit to begin with.
And I'm sure Howard is fine with earning that spot. He's the caliber of prospect though that earns it by getting to start with the big team, as multiple other high-end NCAA players are getting to do right now. If Tampa can't/won't do that for him that's totally fine and their decision to make. Howard will find a team that will though. It's just business
 

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