Speculation: Is winning games and being first in the Atlantic an indication that we're a bad team?

[HellasLEAF]

I don’t know why, but I feel like this team has played worse than any of the past few regular seasons.

It feels like we lucked out on goaltending, which is making up for a lot of dysfunction across all the lines.

I’m usually a pretty positive fan, so I want to feel good about the direction of the team, and I’m thrilled with Stolarz and happy with Woll, but something seems off.

Whereas we used to lose games we should have won, it feels like we now win games we should have lost. That feels like a bad thing, but maybe it’s actually good?

I don’t know, hopefully I’m just plain wrong.

Your assertion that they have been worse is strange. I'm confused how you came up with that. They are #1 in the division. Wins are not lucky. A single game a close game yes sure. 20-30 games. 82 games. That's what they call a trend.

How did we 'luck out' on goaltending exactly. 2 of the 3 tenders were drafted by TML. One was target by TML and signed in Free Agency. Woll has been shown tremendous patience and the organization is being duly rewarded.

Let's look at Stolarz. Did he just decide to be this good in the front half of the season? Boy did we get 'lucky'. Maybe the improved defensive personnel and general improvement in team oriented defence under Berube is helping our goaltenders achieve the statistics and performances they have been putting in.

 

[Sypher04]

You called my opinion nonsense, I'm explaining why it isn't. Why is that surprising to you?

That’s not what I called surprising about it.
This clearly isn’t going anywhere so I’m happy to move on if you are.

 

[Gary Nylund]

That’s not what I called surprising about it.
This clearly isn’t going anywhere so I’m happy to move on if you are.

I said I have a hard time seeing the Leafs winning more than 2 rounds, you called that nonsensical. Move on if you like or feel free to explain how my opinion is nonsensical, totally up to you but I think you're the one who's not making any sense here.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Your assertion that they have been worse is strange. I'm confused how you came up with that. They are #1 in the division. Wins are not lucky. A single game a close game yes sure. 20-30 games. 82 games. That's what they call a trend.

How did we 'luck out' on goaltending exactly. 2 of the 3 tenders were drafted by TML. One was target by TML and signed in Free Agency. Woll has been shown tremendous patience and the organization is being duly rewarded.

Let's look at Stolarz. Did he just decide to be this good in the front half of the season? Boy did we get 'lucky'. Maybe the improved defensive personnel and general improvement in team oriented defence under Berube is helping our goaltenders achieve the statistics and performances they have been putting in.

I don't think we've played very well myself. We're 1st in the division but our division sucks, we're 8th overall which is in that 5-10 slot where we usually are. We also have an unimpressive goal differential of +9, pretty pedestrian. So great goaltending, yet no progress in the standings, I can see why someone might say that's not very good. On the other hand, we've had a bunch of injuries and we're adjusting to a new system so I'm not overly concerned myself. I'm not impressed, but I'm not that concerned either.

I should restate that - I am concerned, but not so much with how we're playing, it's more that it's the same core that fails every year in the playoffs. We have plenty of time go get healthy and adjust to the new system, IMO it's gonna come down to a large extent to how the core does in the playoffs. If we see M&M&JT once again scoring 25-30% less then they do during the regular season, we'll probably see the same result. If they can for once, finally get their shit together then they could have some success, we'll see.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

the team is right where it should be based on the depth scoring, defence, star scoring and goaltending we have gotten

if matthews and nylander were producing like the expectations they have, then we would probably be top 5 in the league. In no world should matthews be under a 100 point pace, let alone an 82 point pace. Ditto for nylander but 90 instead of 100. Again they make 24 million and combined are under ppg, that is just not good enough. JT + Marner are more than holding up their end of the offence, up to the other two to stop underperforming. The last time nylander had more than 1 point was Utah.... almost a month ago. Matthews has 8 in 8 since coming back....this season would be his worst since his rookie year. Not to mention matthews has been kinda mid defensively, especially with his turnovers. Seem's like every game he is doing something stupid with the puck in our zone and it's actually cost us a couple of times. For me, these two are the number one reason why we don't look good.

As for depth scoring, that holds us back just as bad as the core 4, but with the personal back there and money tied into other places, I'm not too shocked. People are arguing over who of dewar, kampf, holmberg, and reaves should play when all of them are pretty filler 4th liners. Until last game robertson was seen as a lost cause and Mcmann hasn't really done much apart from score a pair of goals every 10 games. This combined with the top is what keeps us out of contention for the president's trophy. If M&T don't win us games then more likely than not no skater is. The depth is the secondary reason that we don't look good, and it is compounded on by the fact that the other two stars aren't carrying their weight

Goaltending is looking too good right now, but it will probably stabilze. I don't expect either of stolarz or woll to maintain .920+ but if we can get .910+ I think that should be enough if our offensive guys wake up to get 1st in the atlantic.

All in all, the team hasn't been playing amazingly but they have positioned themselves very nicely to take the division and play Ottawa if things stand. We just need AM and WN to wake up and get a bit more depth scoring

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

For many posters a good game is the leafs absolutely dominating in every aspect of the game lol. That’s not really realistic in a league with strong parity among teams. The fact they are winning is what really matters.

However, there is definitely a higher gear this team can hit. In general they have been decent from an execution perspective. They can be a lot more crisp with their passing, effective in their breakouts, and their forecheck and cycle game can be more consistent. I chalk all this stuff up to them needing to continue improving their execution with this new style of play. So long as we are peaking come playoffs and are reasonably healthy, I’ll be as optimistic going in as I’ve been in a long time.

It's not realistic to dominate every aspect of the game every night, nobody is asking for that.

At the same time It's been 30 games you'd think given the talent that is on this team that they would have a couple blowout wins by now.

I can't think of single one, maybe Tampa, I think that ended 5-2.

That's still only 1 in almost half a season

 

[Ianturnedbull]

A lot of people seem to have no idea what systems we've run. Pretending to be something we're not and don't need to be is what we're currently doing.

Ok. So you've declared that you know what systems we've run. So break it down for us.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It's not realistic to dominate every aspect of the game every night, nobody is asking for that.

At the same time It's been 30 games you'd think given the talent that is on this team that they would have a couple blowout wins by now.

I can't think of single one, maybe Tampa, I think that ended 5-2.

That's still only 1 in almost half a season

Injuries, and adjusting to a new system, I'll cut them some slack for that. But then again, I love making excuses for these guys, except in the playoffs.

Seriously though, we're tied for 6th in goals against which is a massive improvement over 21st which is where we were last year. Lots of that is goaltending but the new system is part of it too and whatever the reason, that bodes well for the playoffs.

Will the core play like stars in the playoffs, that's what it'll come down to IMO. JT looks good, Nylander's always ready for the playoffs so not worried about him, Matthews could be better though and Marner always looks great in the regular season, then fades as the playoffs progress so those two I'm most worried about. Nothing to do but wait until April and see what happens.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

I really wish our road record was better. Right now it's the difference between us being well ahead in the Atlantic and being tied with Florida. Two tough tests this week against a great Dallas team and Buffalo, an arena that's never been friendly for us.

 

[DitchMarner]

I don’t know why, but I feel like this team has played worse than any of the past few regular seasons.

It feels like we lucked out on goaltending, which is making up for a lot of dysfunction across all the lines.

I’m usually a pretty positive fan, so I want to feel good about the direction of the team, and I’m thrilled with Stolarz and happy with Woll, but something seems off.

Whereas we used to lose games we should have won, it feels like we now win games we should have lost. That feels like a bad thing, but maybe it’s actually good?

I don’t know, hopefully I’m just plain wrong.

The team is definitely better in terms of goals against, but it feels like that's largely because of goaltending.

The Leafs seem to be a worse possession team compared to previous years. They're definitely worse offensively than they have been lately.

I'm sure they're good in terms of limiting quality shots and chances against (and better than in past seasons), but I'm not convinced this Maple Leafs team is necessarily better than some teams TOR has had recently. I feel the 2022 Leafs were definitely better.

Ideally, you want better defense and goaltending without losing so much offense.

It's not like offense hasn't been a problem in the playoffs and defense is the only reason the Maple Leafs haven't done better.

 

[NVious]

The season has been solid so far, nothing to write home about, but not bad either.

There's reason to be very concerned, but also reasons to be optimistic.

I'm reserving judgement until the playoffs.

On one hand you can say they're "playing more playoff like Hockey" in winning better defensive games. On the other hand you can say if they're having problems scoring now, how in the world are they going to do it in the playoffs when it gets even tougher?

As I said, just hold out until the playoffs and see what happens there.

 

[conFABulator]

I don’t expect much from the higher paid players and hope they don’t get in the way.

Well, we need to at least hope they deliver because no team is ever making any playoff noise without contributions from their four top guys.

I know we want more from our top guys, but your dramatic statement makes it sound like the core four don't show up at all. Over the past three seasons:

Matthews 24 points in 23 games
Marner 25 points in 25 games
Nylander 20 points in 22 games
Tavares 16 points in 25 games

...throw is Reilly while we are at it.

Reilly 21 points in 25 games

That's 106 points in the past 120 games, or .88 points per game, or 4.5 points per game combined. If your top players are giving you at least two goals every night you would hope the rest of the line up can chip in with one or two.

I don't want re-litigate the core four (plus one more) performance but to expect nothing from them is a bit too much of a dramatic hot take.

 

[sunstersun]

Our good goaltending is preventing our team from scoring.

 

[Jojalu]

The sky's definitely not falling. The teams' been OK, just OK. 1st in a weak division and an unimpressive goal differential of +9 but whatever. It's 82 games of practice before the real season so as long as they bring it in April I'll be happy.

We've had 8 consecutive seasons of sub .500 hockey in the playoffs which is probably an all-time NHL record. My biggest concern is despite a new coach, a new and improved system and much better goaltending, it's the same old core that seems to lack leadership and character. As long as it's the same 4 forwards taking up half the cap, how realistic is it that things will suddenly be different this year? We'll see what happens in the playoffs but my best guess at this point is that we will win a round, not impossible that we will even win another round and that will largely be due to goalies stealing a game or two along the way. Hard to see anything more than that but we can hope.

I doubt it's a record. Getting bounced in the first 7 out of 8 years sure might be but most teams don't make the playoffs for eight consecutive years so it might be theirs forever.

 

[Nineteen67]

Well, we need to at least hope they deliver because no team is ever making any playoff noise without contributions from their four top guys.

I know we want more from our top guys, but your dramatic statement makes it sound like the core four don't show up at all. Over the past three seasons:

Matthews 24 points in 23 games
Marner 25 points in 25 games
Nylander 20 points in 22 games
Tavares 16 points in 25 games

...throw is Reilly while we are at it.

Reilly 21 points in 25 games

That's 106 points in the past 120 games, or .88 points per game, or 4.5 points per game combined. If your top players are giving you at least two goals every night you would hope the rest of the line up can chip in with one or two.

I don't want re-litigate the core four (plus one more) performance but to expect nothing from them is a bit too much of a dramatic hot take.

I don’t expect them to lead the team to two consecutive series wins.

 

[Nineteen67]

The sky's definitely not falling. The teams' been OK, just OK. 1st in a weak division and an unimpressive goal differential of +9 but whatever. It's 82 games of practice before the real season so as long as they bring it in April I'll be happy.

We've had 8 consecutive seasons of sub .500 hockey in the playoffs which is probably an all-time NHL record. My biggest concern is despite a new coach, a new and improved system and much better goaltending, it's the same old core that seems to lack leadership and character. As long as it's the same 4 forwards taking up half the cap, how realistic is it that things will suddenly be different this year? We'll see what happens in the playoffs but my best guess at this point is that we will win a round, not impossible that we will even win another round and that will largely be due to goalies stealing a game or two along the way. Hard to see anything more than that but we can hope.

Winning two rounds would be considered a successful season, in my opinion.

 

[HellasLEAF]

I don't think we've played very well myself. We're 1st in the division but our division sucks, we're 8th overall which is in that 5-10 slot where we usually are. We also have an unimpressive goal differential of +9, pretty pedestrian. So great goaltending, yet no progress in the standings, I can see why someone might say that's not very good. On the other hand, we've had a bunch of injuries and we're adjusting to a new system so I'm not overly concerned myself. I'm not impressed, but I'm not that concerned either.

I should restate that - I am concerned, but not so much with how we're playing, it's more that it's the same core that fails every year in the playoffs. We have plenty of time go get healthy and adjust to the new system, IMO it's gonna come down to a large extent to how the core does in the playoffs. If we see M&M&JT once again scoring 25-30% less then they do during the regular season, we'll probably see the same result. If they can for once, finally get their shit together then they could have some success, we'll see.

They haven't played their best stretch of hockey or had their full lineup going either and they are 1st in the division, is the point really. Albeit a crappy division that sucks as you said. That's a little more than just goaltending. I think there is a lot to be positive about.

 

[conFABulator]

I don’t expect them to lead the team to two consecutive series wins.

I don't expect it either. I also don't think it's impossible

 

[Goose]

edit: nevermind.

 

[SkateSave]

Of all the seasons and iterations of this team, this is the one where we want to see Stanley Cup form or GTFO. They lost another game 7 to Boston, the coach was fired, and none of the core players were shipped. We all know it's not about points or standings. It's about whether this team looks anything like a champion when they play, lose or win.

Part of determining championship caliber is determining what their identity is, and maybe fans can't tell or don't like what they see. We are not pushovers physically, but we're not intimidating; we have lots of fire power and skill but don't score that much; we have a good GAA but make our goalies look like Vezina winners every game. Yes, we've had injuries and a coaching change. I so I think fans are understanding but not yet convinced.

I think this team still needs to coalesce, and that usually happens through leadership. This team either needs Mathews to step up or step down, and it needs to keep getting stellar goaltending.

 

[Confucius]

I said I have a hard time seeing the Leafs winning more than 2 rounds, you called that nonsensical. Move on if you like or feel free to explain how my opinion is nonsensical, totally up to you but I think you're the one who's not making any sense here.

Ofcourse it’s nonsense when you don’t know which two teams we will face 5 months from now. Your statement makes it seem like it doesn’t matter, which is nonsensical.

 

[tuckerintensity]

This is kind of nonsensical imo.
it’s a rarity for a team to luck their way into the final 4. If the leafs goaltenders have to steal a game or two to help their team along that’s not a bad thing and not uncommon around the league. If you’re able to crack the final 4, there isn’t really any reason to think it couldn’t be your year.

It's this kind of idea that is what really takes the cake when it comes to Leaf fans. We're really at the point with many fans where a Conference Finals appearance is just luck and would still show that there is no way this team can win with Willie, Auston, and Mitch. That is exactly as you described it, nonsensical.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The season has been solid so far, nothing to write home about, but not bad either.

There's reason to be very concerned, but also reasons to be optimistic.

I'm reserving judgement until the playoffs.

On one hand you can say they're "playing more playoff like Hockey" in winning better defensive games. On the other hand you can say if they're having problems scoring now, how in the world are they going to do it in the playoffs when it gets even tougher?

As I said, just hold out until the playoffs and see what happens there.

There are positive signs for sure, goaltending is the big one.

I doubt it's a record. Getting bounced in the first 7 out of 8 years sure might be but most teams don't make the playoffs for eight consecutive years so it might be theirs forever.

If it's "theirs forever, that suggests that it is a record, no?

Winning two rounds would be considered a successful season, in my opinion.

I'm sure different people would set the bar in different places, no right or wrong here IMO.

They haven't played their best stretch of hockey or had their full lineup going either and they are 1st in the division, is the point really. Albeit a crappy division that sucks as you said. That's a little more than just goaltending. I think there is a lot to be positive about.

There are positives for sure. It's a good team, we'll find out in the spring if they're a better playoff team or not.

Ofcourse it’s nonsense when you don’t know which two teams we will face 5 months from now. Your statement makes it seem like it doesn’t matter, which is nonsensical.

If that's how it seemed to you, then you completely misunderstood. If you explain how you got from point A to point B, maybe I can show you where you took a wrong turn.

It's this kind of idea that is what really takes the cake when it comes to Leaf fans. We're really at the point with many fans where a Conference Finals appearance is just luck and would still show that there is no way this team can win with Willie, Auston, and Mitch. That is exactly as you described it, nonsensical.

LMAO, now that is nonsense indeed.

 

[Nineteen67]

I'm sure different people would set the bar in different places, no right or wrong here IMO.

If this core had already won 6 series with a trip to the Eastern final, I think most would agree it was a good run.

 

[Jojalu]

There are positive signs for sure, goaltending is the big one.

If it's "theirs forever, that suggests that it is a record, no?

I'm sure different people would set the bar in different places, no right or wrong here IMO.

There are positives for sure. It's a good team, we'll find out in the spring if they're a better playoff team or not.

If that's how it seemed to you, then you completely misunderstood. If you explain how you got from point A to point B, maybe I can show you where you took a wrong turn.

LMAO, now that is nonsense indeed.

I meant having a losing record for 8 straight years in the playoffs is most likely not a record.

I do believe losing 7 times in the first round in 8 years is.