Speculation: Is winning games and being first in the Atlantic an indication that we're a bad team?

[Ianturnedbull]

I reading post-game discussions and no one is happy with TOR's game.

Yet...they are winning.

Are you eye testing (be honest!), or are you going to expected goals/analytics forums for your information?

Do you not like their performance because the goalies have to bail out the team? All kinds of good teams in the history of hockey had great goaltending performances.

Are you commenting negatively because Matthews is not on pace for 69 goals?

Just to give some perspective I was at a Marlies game last week. It wasn't a work of art, but they won. You prefer them to cruise to 4-0 victory, but no. They had a first period hiccup with fluke goals, and poor defensive coverage. They kept playing their game while missing Grebenkin, Nylander, Rifai, etc. But the goaltending was timely, the opportunities starting opening up, they scored with 15 sec. to go in the 2nd period, they scored on the PP, etc. Not perfect at all, but closing it out with strength and solid play was all the difference.

Toronto win in general because they hold on to leads, their goalies don't allow soft goals, they PK pretty good. Last night's game (although it was Buffalo) is just another case of them holding the lead and not letting it slip away.

Is this really so bad?

Click to read more...

 

[DarkKnight]

Berube commented about Florida playing their game. And he said how that game doesn't need to change come playoffs, it's a natural fit. That's what we're trying to do here and I like it.

Last year the two Atlantic series had more hits than the entire rest of the playoff series combined. You aren't getting out of this division without playing hard nosed hockey, period. This style lends itself to that reality.

I'm happy. Just need to get the PP going.

 

[Jojalu]

Berube commented about Florida playing their game. And he said how that game doesn't need to change come playoffs, it's a natural fit. That's what we're trying to do here and I like it.

Last year the two Atlantic series had more hits than the entire rest of the playoff series combined. You aren't getting out of this division without playing hard nosed hockey, period. This style lends itself to that reality.

I'm happy. Just need to get the PP going.

The mythological 60 min game is what it seems people keep hoping for.

All games have ebbs and flows and momentum swings. Especially when you have 2 good teams playing. Even now contrary to most views, the league has achieved parity pretty much and every game you have to work.

For anyone thinking any team is going out and dominating for 60 mis night in, night out is kind of silly.

For the life of me I can't figure out why this market equates losing with players not caring, or being disinterested. With the rare expeption, winning 60% of all your games is a great season. Then prepare to try and win 16 games in the post season.

You are correct. They are trying to play a brand that has a higher chance of winning in the playoffs, taking care of your defensive responsibilities first will lead to the Leafs having fewer chances to score. Berube doesn't want to win 5-4 every night.

 

[Suntouchable13]

The mythological 60 min game is what it seems people keep hoping for.

All games have ebbs and flows and momentum swings. Especially when you have 2 good teams playing. Even now contrary to most views, the league has achieved parity pretty much and every game you have to work.

For anyone thinking any team is going out and dominating for 60 mis night in, night out is kind of silly.

For the life of me I can't figure out why this market equates losing with players not caring, or being disinterested. With the rare expeption, winning 60% of all your games is a great season. Then prepare to try and win 16 games in the post season.

You are correct. They are trying to play a brand that has a higher chance of winning in the playoffs, taking care of your defensive responsibilities first will lead to the Leafs having fewer chances to score. Berube doesn't want to win 5-4 every night.

But, imo, they still have not achieved that balance. Their stars almost never came through and broke a game open when it mattered in the playoffs. Yea, we can play this defensive game and wait for the big boys to break games open, but it has not happened in the playoffs yet. I will believe they can do it when I actually see it, in April.

 

[Buds17]

First place in The Atlantic - with Tampa being the only team within striking distance and having the requisite number of games in hand - while theoretically carving out one of the best paths to playoff success (divisional leader vs wild card)? I'm certainly not looking to find fault with any of that right now.

 

[hoglund]

No, where's the logic in saying that?

 

[DarkKnight]

No, where's the logic in saying that?

You come here for logic, how adorable

 

[nuck]

Willie and Matty are are both paid to be top 5 forwards in the league and they are nowhere close. Domi has one goal and Mo is a -8. There is a lot to be disappointed with early in the year. But barring new injuries I absolutely expect at least 2 of these things to change. I think jumping on them at the 1/3 mark is somewhat early but that's how some people fan and I understand that. When it gets to where those folks are quiet the team will have arrived

The eye test says they don't have as many games when they "flop" but they are fourth worst in the league for 3rd period goals so thats got to improve by any measure. Lets go Matty!

 

[Voodoo Child]

To be fair, aside from a few blowouts against jobbers like CBJ and STL, the bad run of play has been a recent development.

@TBL: overall good, scary 3rd but W
Vs. Chicago: a bad game against a team they were brutally overmatched to, W
Vs. Nashville: an okay game that they only needed 5 minutes to get the W
@Wsh: a bad game, L
Vs. Pittsburgh: a very bad game, L
@NJ: a very bad game where they somehow got the W in OT.
Vs. ANA: I actually think they played well, downright dominated the Ducks in their end, W
@DET: a bad game, L
Vs. Buffalo: a bad start but a good overall game, W

And they are 6-3-0. Good teams win games they shouldn't.

The problems are all the same in these games, either they start bad (last night, Detroit) or they just can't put an opponent away (Tampa, Anaheim). They're still not taking some games seriously, like Pittsburgh or Detroit.

I do like the improved defensive play even if it comes at the expense of guys getting their totals, and I like the improved PK even if the PP is mediocre.

But the only season that matters is the one starting in April, which they'll comfortably get to, and we all know this.

 

[Goose]

I don’t know why, but I feel like this team has played worse than any of the past few regular seasons.

It feels like we lucked out on goaltending, which is making up for a lot of dysfunction across all the lines.

I’m usually a pretty positive fan, so I want to feel good about the direction of the team, and I’m thrilled with Stolarz and happy with Woll, but something seems off.

Whereas we used to lose games we should have won, it feels like we now win games we should have lost. That feels like a bad thing, but maybe it’s actually good?

I don’t know, hopefully I’m just plain wrong.

 

[BallardEra]

It is the Midlantic but I'd rather be leading it than in WC 1 or 2 spots.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

But, imo, they still have not achieved that balance. Their stars almost never came through and broke a game open when it mattered in the playoffs. Yea, we can play this defensive game and wait for the big boys to break games open, but it has not happened in the playoffs yet. I will believe they can do it when I actually see it, in April.

I think the main difference this year with Berube is that they have cut down on the self inflicted mistakes. We saw in the Detroit game how easy it is to shoot yourself in the foot and teams used to just wait for us to do it. We still do it, but at a level that is somewhat acceptable. I think it will make a difference this year in the playoffs, but if they play mistake free (or close to it) and the stars all disappear (except Willy who actually shows pretty well) then I think it's time to blow this core 4 up and not just JT. Something drastic has to happen.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

I think the main difference this year with Berube is that they have cut down on the self inflicted mistakes. We saw in the Detroit game how easy it is to shoot yourself in the foot and teams used to just wait for us to do it. We still do it, but at a level that is somewhat acceptable. I think it will make a difference this year in the playoffs, but if they play mistake free (or close to it) and the stars all disappear (except Willy who actually shows pretty well) then I think it's time to blow this core 4 up and not just JT. Something drastic has to happen.

I agree with most of this accept for breaking the team up. Not having the core 4 is so much different than having them. I remember when Haglin, Stajan, and Ponichorovsky had major roles with TOR. It was god awful.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I reading post-game discussions and no one is happy with TOR's game.

Yet...they are winning.

Are you eye testing (be honest!), or are you going to expected goals/analytics forums for your information?

Do you not like their performance because the goalies have to bail out the team? All kinds of good teams in the history of hockey had great goaltending performances.

Are you commenting negatively because Matthews is not on pace for 69 goals?

Just to give some perspective I was at a Marlies game last week. It wasn't a work of art, but they won. You prefer them to cruise to 4-0 victory, but no. They had a first period hiccup with fluke goals, and poor defensive coverage. They kept playing their game while missing Grebenkin, Nylander, Rifai, etc. But the goaltending was timely, the opportunities starting opening up, they scored with 15 sec. to go in the 2nd period, they scored on the PP, etc. Not perfect at all, but closing it out with strength and solid play was all the difference.

Toronto win in general because they hold on to leads, their goalies don't allow soft goals, they PK pretty good. Last night's game (although it was Buffalo) is just another case of them holding the lead and not letting it slip away.

Is this really so bad?

I'd like to see some blowout wins.

Firstly so that I don't have to suffer multiple heart attacks every night, and secondly to get the offense cooking because It's not playing the way it should.

The record is good, it should be better.

The occasional 7-2 win should not be to much to ask for this team with this top 6

 

[BertCorbeau]

A few thoughts:

- it is nice to see that years of playoff futility has raised the bar in terms of team play expectation

- I’m not worried about the the big 4’s play right now .. we all know that what matters is in April. Regardless of the expectation vs salary, they’re all finding productivity.

- they are also adapting to a coach who is more defensive oriented. That in itself is a can effect the offensive mind set. Not to mention Berube is preaching a more north-south game. These adjustments take time.

- while scoring has been down, generally speaking the team defense has vastly improved. The last couple of weeks have had lapses, but they are doing well in their own zone and helping their goaltending out. And when needed the goalies have been able to step up

- there are legit reasons for concerns though, which are similar to years past. Lack of depth scoring and a PP that has been just ok.

- overall they’re adapting their play to be more in line with playoff hockey. Tight defense, finishing checks, pushing back more.

It’s hard to argue they’re a bad team when they’re first in the division. This is just a different style of team that we are used to seeing. Remains to be seen if they can keep adapting under Berube, and there are areas that need improvement, but they’re having some solid success to date and that is a positive sign

 

[Mr_Fun]

We’re going to need to be better on the road. That’s a mathematical fact as we’ve played a lot more home games and have not faired well on the road so far. If they can figure out how to be better on the road, we have a good shot at winning the division.

 

[Maple Leaf]

Regular season is just practice for the playoffs

 

[arso40]

I agree with most of this accept for breaking the team up. Not having the core 4 is so much different than having them. I remember when Haglin, Stajan, and Ponichorovsky had major roles with TOR. It was god awful.

We need a dman and a forward that should be clear i think we’re kinda just stucc with this core tbh no gm is letting marner walk to FA…….yeah right we need that dman, a Murphy in Chicago type and get a center/winger #4 right shot is needed to push someone down the depth chart need quality over quantity at this point

 

[conFABulator]

Even though we’re winning and sitting near the top of the division—as we always seem to be—there’s an underlying concern that’s hard to ignore: a lack of offensive balance and depth scoring. This has consistently been our Achilles’ heel in the playoffs, and this year, despite the wins, it feels like more of the same.

With all the off-season changes, I predicted we’d be better than last year—and my model had us as one of the league’s top teams. But it also projected more goals for. Through 30 games, both our even-strength (ES) and power play (PP) production have been underwhelming, which leaves many od us still searching for answers.

We’ve got a new coach, a new system, and it’s fair to assume there’s still another gear to hit. That said, I’m surprised we’ve continued to stack two lines while struggling to generate scoring from the bottom six. I expected Berube to lean into a more balanced approach, spreading out the talent and tapping into our depth—something we may yet see in the second half.

The bright spots? Our defense and goaltending have been greatly improved. But let’s be honest: those haven’t been the things holding us back when it matters most. The playoffs have always been about scoring—or rather, our inability to score. It falls on the core four not stepping up and the supporting cast disappearing when needed most.

I truly thought the solution this year would be to diversify our offense, both at ES and on the PP, making us harder to game plan against. That hasn’t happened yet.

That said, I have faith in Berube and Treliving. This feels like a process, a plan still in motion. I just hope that in the second half, we see the balance and depth addressed before it’s too late—because if history has taught us anything, it’s that offense wins you games, but balanced offense wins you series.