Is USA hockey's window smaller than we think ?

[Summer Rose]

Of course.

The O.P. meant the U.S.'s window to be on the same level as Canada, like they were at the 4NC, is small.

In 2030, many of us, including the OP, expect Canada to jump ahead.

I think it’ll ebb and flow over time for decades to come unless something drastic (that we can’t actually predict) changes. That’s all I can realistically hope for. We will only ever be slight favorites over Canada from time to time as the pendulum swings back and forth (and other countries also go through their respective rises and falls). There will also be tournaments where we’re on par with Canada, and tournaments where Canada is the favorite. What I do think is here to stay, however, is than even in years where Canada has a team that’s better than us on paper, it won’t be by nearly as much as it was in older times, leaving us within striking distance in short tournaments where upsets can and do happen.

 

[ORRFForever]

I think it’ll ebb and flow over time for decades to come unless something drastic (that we can’t actually predict) changes. That’s all I can realistically hope for. We will only ever be slight favorites over Canada from time to time as the pendulum swings back and forth (and other countries also go through their respective rises and falls). There will also be tournaments where we’re on par with Canada, and tournaments where Canada is the favorite. What I do think is here to stay, however, is than even in years where Canada has a team that’s better than us on paper, it won’t be by nearly as much as it was in older times, leaving us within striking distance in short tournaments where upsets can and do happen.

Of course. The U.S. has strong teams and, with a bounce or two, can win a tournament.

 

[Summer Rose]

Of course. The U.S. has strong teams and, with a bounce or two, can win a tournament.

Yep. At no point in the foreseeable future do I see us going into a tournament with the experts just about all agreeing that we have no shot at a medal whatsoever. Granted, one of the times it that happened, we proved them all wrong and won a gold medal anyway. It just took some major upsets (including one of the most famous upsets in the history of international hockey) along the way.

 

[Peiskos]

Quite frankly we need to reassess this entire question... I'm not even sure if there is a window there at all! To me it appears like nothing but a stone wall.

0 wins at the senior level since 1996, the US is the only major hockey playing country in the world without a win at the mens level in this current century. Some may say this is a bold take but I don't think that's a coincidence, pushing 3 decades of utter futility at the highest level is not a coincidence, it can't be. It points to a systemic failure. There is no window.

Even tiny Slovakia has managed to win a mens level tournament in this century.

Another day, another opportunity for USA Hockey to head back to the drawing board.

 

[ORRFForever]

Quite frankly we need to reassess this entire question... I'm not even sure if there is a window there at all! To me it appears like nothing but a stone wall.

0 wins at the senior level since 1996, the US is the only major hockey playing country in the world without a win at the mens level in this current century. Some may say this is a bold take but I don't think that's a coincidence, pushing 3 decades of utter futility at the highest level is not a coincidence, it can't be. It points to a systemic failure. There is no window.

Even tiny Slovakia has managed to win a mens level tournament in this century.

Another day, another opportunity for USA Hockey to head back to the drawing board.

Assuming NO injuries, the U.S. will have an AMAZING team in 2026 and 2028.

 

[Peiskos]

Assuming NO injuries, the U.S. will have an AMAZING team in 2026 and 2028.

Therein lies the difference -- Canada will have amazing teams in 2026 and 2028 even WITH injuries. We literally hear this every time for the US in tournaments, a culture seemingly centred around the phrase "Just wait until next time you'll see!" yawn

 

[Summer Rose]

Therin lies the difference -- Canada will have amazing teams in 2026 and 2028 even with injuries. We literally hear this every time for the US in tournaments, a culture seemingly centred around the phrase "Just wait until next time you'll see" yawn

I will agree that I think there’s a culture/attitude problem with USA Hockey. We’re also 0 for 3 in the championship game so far this century, going down to Canada all three times. We should be a contender for the foreseeable future but it’s still up in the air whether we actually win a damn thing this time, and history is not at all on our side.


…maybe this is how Leafs fans feel?

 

[ORRFForever]

I will agree that I think there’s a culture/attitude problem with USA Hockey. We’re also 0 for 3 in the championship game so far this century, going down to Canada all three times. We should be a contender for the foreseeable future but it’s still up in the air whether we actually win a damn thing this time, and history is not at all on our side.


…maybe this is how Leafs fans feel?

Exactly how the Leafs feel.

Therein lies the difference -- Canada will have amazing teams in 2026 and 2028 even WITH injuries. We literally hear this every time for the US in tournaments, a culture seemingly centred around the phrase "Just wait until next time you'll see!" yawn

I hope you're right and Canada wins in both 2026 and 2028.

 

[Peiskos]

I will agree that I think there’s a culture/attitude problem with USA Hockey. We’re also 0 for 3 in the championship game so far this century, going down to Canada all three times. We should be a contender for the foreseeable future but it’s still up in the air whether we actually win a damn thing this time, and history is not at all on our side.


…maybe this is how Leafs fans feel?

Leafs haven't gotten close to sniffing the SCF to really feel that.

 

[Boonk]

Quite frankly we need to reassess this entire question... I'm not even sure if there is a window there at all! To me it appears like nothing but a stone wall.

0 wins at the senior level since 1996, the US is the only major hockey playing country in the world without a win at the mens level in this current century. Some may say this is a bold take but I don't think that's a coincidence, pushing 3 decades of utter futility at the highest level is not a coincidence, it can't be. It points to a systemic failure. There is no window.

Even tiny Slovakia has managed to win a mens level tournament in this century.

Another day, another opportunity for USA Hockey to head back to the drawing board.

USA Hockey has not even won a "World Championship" IIHF mens tournament outside of the Olympic circuit since 1933, literally the Great Depression pre-WW2, and have no finals apperances at the IIHF Worlds since 1950. Almost a whole century of total failure at the mens level aside from 3 wins that were 20 years apart from each other. Lol.

I always keep this knowledge in my back pocket for a chuckle whenever American NHL fans clapback about some hockey team in Montreal being the last NHL club that happens to be in Canada winning a cup over 30 years ago, or celebrate a bunch of teenagers winning a gold at the World Juniors as the ultimate barometer of Canadas downfall and the US' acension.

 

[Summer Rose]

USA Hockey has not even won a "World Championship" IIHF mens tournament outside of the Olympic circuit since 1933, literally the Great Depression pre-WW2, and have no finals apperances at the IIHF Worlds since 1950. Almost a whole century of total failure at the mens level aside from 3 wins that were 20 years apart from each other. Lol.

I always keep this knowledge in my back pocket for a chuckle whenever American NHL fans clapback about some hockey team in Montreal being the last NHL club that happens to be in Canada winning a cup over 30 years ago, or celebrate a bunch of teenagers winning a gold at the World Juniors as the ultimate barometer of Canadas downfall and the US' acension.

Our results at the world championships are embarrassing to say the least.

 

[jcbio11]

Even tiny Slovakia has managed to win a mens level tournament in this century.

Excuse you. We're certainly not tiny in the hockey world.

Anywho no, USA hockey's window is not smaller than we think. The US is a sleeping giant in hockey and it's a matter of time before they take Canada's position as the hockey world's leading superpower. Looking at demographic and societal trends in Canada, this may come sooner rather than later.

The American rise to the top in the hockey world is inevitable.

 

[Peiskos]

Excuse you. We're certainly not tiny in the hockey world.

Anywho no, USA hockey's window is not smaller than we think. The US is a sleeping giant in hockey and it's a matter of time before they take Canada's position as the hockey world's leading superpower. Looking at demographic and societal trends in Canada, this may come sooner rather than later.

The American rise to the top in the hockey world is inevitable.

Lol I mean it really isn't, and I meant on a pure numbers basis Slovakia is a small fish in international hockey. On that same note sheer numbers aren't the deciding factor, why has Finland with 5 million been able to win so much more at the senior level than the US?

Again this sleeping giant mumbo jumbo is the same slant we've been hearing for decades now and the results are the same, the cream (Canada) rising to the top. I remember hearing the exact same nonsense as a child, I'm now a grown adult and nothing has changed, it was silly back then and its silly now.

Americans will always try to beat Canada at Canada's style of hockey but they'll always come up short, 4 nations is just another example of this. This was supposed to be the US's greatest generation of players, their best team in a generation.....and yet it still wasn't good enough against a Canadian side that historically speaking isn't even at its greatest power.

We just need to look at the results, the US program has still yet to produce a McDavid/MacKinnon or Crosby level player.

Although with the coming drafts Canada is poised to become even stronger as we head towards 2030. I see Canada's international hockey hegemony unthreatened for decades to come really.

 

[Hanji]

Lol I mean it really isn't, and I meant on a pure numbers basis Slovakia is a small fish in international hockey. On that same note sheer numbers aren't the deciding factor, why has Finland with 5 million been able to win so much more at the senior level than the US?

Again this sleeping giant mumbo jumbo is the same slant we've been hearing for decades now and the results are the same, the cream (Canada) rising to the top. I remember hearing the exact same nonsense as a child, I'm now a grown adult and nothing has changed, it was silly back then and its silly now.

Americans will always try to beat Canada at Canada's style of hockey but they'll always come up short, 4 nations is just another example of this. This was supposed to be the US's greatest generation of players, their best team in a generation.....and yet it still wasn't good enough against a Canadian side that historically speaking isn't even at its greatest power.

We just need to look at the results, the US program has still yet to produce a McDavid/MacKinnon or Crosby level player.

Although with the coming drafts Canada is poised to become even stronger as we head towards 2030. I see Canada's international hockey hegemony unthreatened for decades to come really.

You've been hearing the same slant for decades because it's true. But it takes time. The rise of the United States was never gonna occur over night. It is a very slow gradual process.

But the end game is inevitable if trends continue. USA hockey is on the rise. Canadian hockey is on the decline.

Statistics bare this out.

 

[ORRFForever]

The US is a sleeping giant in hockey and it's a matter of time before they take Canada's position as the hockey world's leading superpower. Looking at demographic and societal trends in Canada, this may come sooner rather than later.

The American rise to the top in the hockey world is inevitable.

They've said the same thing about soccer since the 1970's. More American young people play soccer than almost any other country in world. In fact, the number of young Americans playing soccer outnumbers the number of people IN some countries.

Last time I looked, the U.S. ranks 16th in the world in men's soccer.

 

[Summer Rose]

They've said the same thing about soccer since the 1970's. More American young people play soccer than almost any other country in world. In fact, the number of young Americans playing soccer outnumbers the number of people IN some countries.

Last time I looked, the U.S. ranks 16th in the world in men's soccer.

People who said (or say) that about soccer in the US are doing the same as those who have been saying that we’re going to inevitably be dominant in hockey: setting their sights too high. You can rise up to become competitive with the top nations who are already there on your own, but you don’t become dominant unless everyone else at the top steps back. With the US and hockey, the growth will eventually plateau even if it’s still trending upwards and Canada is on a minor decline. A decline can also end in the blink of an eye, conversely.

 

[ORRFForever]

People who said (or say) that about soccer in the US are doing the same as those who have been saying that we’re going to inevitably be dominant in hockey: setting their sights too high. You can rise up to become competitive with the top nations who are already there on your own, but you don’t become dominant unless everyone else at the top steps back. With the US and hockey, the growth will eventually plateau even if it’s still trending upwards and Canada is on a minor decline. A decline can also end in the blink of an eye, conversely.

When the U.S. had all those amazing drafts from 2015-2019, I (grudgingly) gave credit. U.S. posters may have to return the favour with the 2020-2026 drafts.

Those drafts will pay dividends for Canada for a decade plus. After that, I'll be too old to care.

 

[Summer Rose]

When the U.S. had all those amazing drafts from 2015-2019, I (grudgingly) gave credit. U.S. posters may have to return the favour with the 2020-2026 drafts.

Those drafts will pay dividends for Canada for a decade plus. After that, I'll be too old to care.

I’m 38. I’m hoping the US national team stays competitive for the next 40 years or so, or however long I have left on God’s green earth. The long-term trends indicate that they will. However, one thing I forgot to add to my previous post is that even then, every trend is always subject to change. 20 years from now we could suck again, or another country could come out and push themselves into contention, or both. Maybe even in 50 years (though I’ll probably be gone by then) a country that isn’t even a current IIHF member could have a strong national team.

 

[ORRFForever]

I’m 38. I’m hoping the US national team stays competitive for the next 40 years or so, or however long I have left on God’s green earth. The long-term trends indicate that they will. However, one thing I forgot to add to my previous post is that even then, every trend is always subject to change. 20 years from now we could suck again, or another country could come out and push themselves into contention, or both. Maybe even in 50 years (though I’ll probably be gone by then) a country that isn’t even a current IIHF member could have a strong national team.

I agree.

If you'd told people 50 years ago, Russia would be 5th in hockey in 2025 (behind Sweden, Finland and the U.S.), no one would have believed you.

If you'd told people 50 years ago, the U.S. would be 2nd in hockey in 2025, no one would have believed you.

You NEVER know in life.

 

[Peiskos]

You've been hearing the same slant for decades because it's true. But it takes time. The rise of the United States was never gonna occur over night. It is a very slow gradual process.

But the end game is inevitable if trends continue. USA hockey is on the rise. Canadian hockey is on the decline.

Statistics bare this out.

View attachment 989317

Lol again participation numbers don't mean anything when all you're ever going to need is 20 some guys to ice a national team, and I'm taking 20 some Canadians over 20 some Americans any day of the week.

Once again, we've been hearing this ridiculous argument for decades now and the results are the same, utter futility for the US at the senior level while Canada keeps stuffing its trophy case.

 

[Peiskos]

I agree.

If you'd told people 50 years ago, Russia would be 5th in hockey in 2025 (behind Sweden, Finland and the U.S.), no one would have believed you.

If you'd told people 50 years ago, the U.S. would be 2nd in hockey in 2025, no one would have believed you.

You NEVER know in life.

Except the US isn't 2nd in hockey, not even the IIHF world rankings put the US 2nd, they have them in 6th.

I'm sorry but Im calling this nonsense out, the US hasn't won ANYTHING at the senior level since the late 90's, its simply impossible to be the 2nd best country when your international results at the mens level are non existent.

Like what a slap in the face to the Finns who in comparison have won so much more at the senior level in recent history.

 

[ORRFForever]

Except the US isn't 2nd in hockey, not even the IIHF world rankings put the US 2nd, they have them in 6th.

I'm sorry but Im calling this nonsense out, the US hasn't won ANYTHING at the senior level since the late 90's, its simply impossible to be the 2nd best country when your international results at the mens level are non existent.

Like what a slap in the face to the Finns who in comparison have won so much more at the senior level in recent history.

That's fair.

 

[Summer Rose]

Except the US isn't 2nd in hockey, not even the IIHF world rankings put the US 2nd, I'm, sorry but Im calling this nonsense out, the US hasn't won ANYTHING at the senior level since the late 90's, its simply impossible to be the 2nd best country when your international results at the mens level are non existent.

For what they are, the IIHF world rankings aren't the worst measure of a country's overall strength in terms of the senior national team out there. USA being 6th isn't entirely inaccurate. You could interpret it to be more like 5th, because Russia is 2nd but they're currently dormant.

 

[Peiskos]

You've been hearing the same slant for decades because it's true. But it takes time. The rise of the United States was never gonna occur over night. It is a very slow gradual process.

But the end game is inevitable if trends continue. USA hockey is on the rise. Canadian hockey is on the decline.

Statistics bare this out.

View attachment 989317

Nationality of players of the NHL has no bearing on international hockey results though, what a weird logic to take here lol. Finland has a small % yet they win so much more than the US at the senior level, explain that.

It doesn't matter because all a nation is ever going to need is 20+ guys to ice a team, and I'll always bet my money on 20+ Canadian dudes over what the US puts out there, history backs this up.

While you cling to silly charts and graphs I'll look at the actual results, and those results show utter futility for the US at the highest level for decades now.

Canadian hockey is continually ascending, other countries hurry to catch up, they might come close, but then Canada jumps ahead again, that's how its always been and the future drafts for Canada would support this, Canada is poised to become even stronger as we move towards the 2030's.

As for the US, well maybe one of these days their best young players like Matthews and Eichel won't combine for 0 goals in the 2026 Olympics this team around like they did at 4 nations.

 

[Summer Rose]

Nationality of players of the NHL has no bearing on international hockey results though, what a weird logic to take here lol. Finland has a small % yet they win so much more than the US at the senior level, explain that.

It doesn't matter because all a nation is ever going to need is 20+ guys to ice a team, and I'll always bet my money on 20+ Canadian dudes over what the US puts out there, history backs this up.

While you cling to silly charts and graphs I'll look at the actual results, and those results show utter futility for the US at the highest level for decades now.

"Utter futility" is kind of a sensationalist way of putting it, but you have a point. We seem to have a bit of a culture/attitude problem with how we approach things. American players regularly blow off the world championships and mail it in if "forced" to play in a bronze medal game. I've heard some similar things here and there about Canadian players declining to participate in the world championships, but you'd more than likely know more about this than I do. Also, Canada has enough depth of talent to make up for the losses of players who don't want to go.