Is USA hockey's window smaller than we think ?

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Fair pint all over. Can respond correctly. Would need to do the recherche and establish factuel date. But your point is valid and interesting.

IMO though, for the same %, the numbers will always favour USA over Canada.

It's gonna take time. There are other factors than pure demographics. Canada's been breeding hockey players for over a century in an environment that is far more conductive and a culture which is more front and central. The concentration of competition (more players per city, per region) is greater in Canada and IMO, coupled with the aforementioned factors, drives a higher yeild of maximum talent; the McDavids, MacKinnons and Makars.

There's also something else to consider. Hockey Canada (the institution, and some of its provincial counterparts, especially Hockey Quebec) have been sitting on their laurels, locked away in their ivory tower, giving way to a system that is less than ideal for talent growth. Losing an olympic gold medal game to the US for the first time, might bring some much needed change and instigate a renewal that would forestall or even prevent the US from taking over.

It's the pride of the nation, and nothing would instigate bigger changes than losing the crown. Food for thought.

 

[CarolinaBlueJacket]

I agree. I'm just saying LOTS of people predicted U.S. dominances in soccer.

They still do in soccer forums - they say MLS is taking off and kids will start playing soccer instead of football, baseball, basketball and hockey and, when they do, the U.S. will rule the soccer world.

They may be right.

People can say what they want, but I can tell you that soccer is MOSTLY a little kids game here. Hockey is a niche sport. When it comes up that my son plays hockey people respond with "He plays hockey?! That's cool. Can he skate backwards?"

This is just off the top of my head with no facts, but I would say with 100 points available to rank popularity of sports in the SE US, it would be sometime like

Football 45
Baseball 30
Basketball 26
Hockey 3
Soccer 1

I live in the SE US so baseball and basketball are more popular here than in other areas of the country. In MA, MN, Buffalo, hockey will be higher and probably football.

 

[Bleedred]

I think they’re set up very nicely to silver or at the very least bronze medal next year at the Olympics.

Love the people who run Team USA Hockey. Gotta give them credit. Guerin, Drury, Fitzgerald, all very highly successful GM’s for their respective NHL teams.

And those coaches are fantastic. A couple of them actually won cups in past decades and David Quinn and John Hynes have a ton of success prior to the NHL.

 

[ORRFForever]

People can say what they want, but I can tell you that soccer is MOSTLY a little kids game here. Hockey is a niche sport. When it comes up that my son plays hockey people respond with "He plays hockey?! That's cool. Can he skate backwards?"

This is just off the top of my head with no facts, but I would say with 100 points available to rank popularity of sports in the SE US, it would be sometime like

Football 45
Baseball 30
Basketball 26
Hockey 3
Soccer 1

I live in the SE US so baseball and basketball are more popular here than in other areas of the country. In MA, MN, Buffalo, hockey will be higher and probably football.

Don't underestimate soccer. It's LOVED throughout the world for a reason.

I can't watch it, myself. All the diving is painful.

 

[Summer Rose]

I think they’re set up very nicely to silver or at the very least bronze medal next year at the Olympics.

Love the people who run Team USA Hockey. Gotta give them credit. Guerin, Drury, Fitzgerald, all very highly successful GM’s for their respective NHL teams.

And those coaches are fantastic. A couple of them actually won cups in past decades and David Quinn and John Hynes have a ton of success prior to the NHL.

Are you implying that we'd actually show up for a bronze medal game? We have a terrible, TERRIBLE history of not taking bronze medal games seriously, and the results absolutely show that. I don't see that changing next year if we wind up in the bronze medal game, no matter who we're playing in it.

 

[ORRFForever]

I think they’re set up very nicely to silver or at the very least bronze medal next year at the Olympics.

Love the people who run Team USA Hockey. Gotta give them credit. Guerin, Drury, Fitzgerald, all very highly successful GM’s for their respective NHL teams.

And those coaches are fantastic. A couple of them actually won cups in past decades and David Quinn and John Hynes have a ton of success prior to the NHL.

I think the U.S. will win Gold in 2026 - a TON of BIG talented players between the ages of 25-29.

 

[CarolinaBlueJacket]

Don't underestimate soccer. It's LOVED throughout the world for a reason.

I can't watch it, myself. All the diving is painful.

Just because it's loved doesn't mean it's good. Nickelback and McDonalds are very popular all around the world.

 

[Tutu to]

Ive been saying this for a while. Canada is in a period of producing some real elite prospects while the States is struggling in that regard. Canada will likely go 5 drafts in a row with the first overall pick.

You never know how these players will develop but it is worth acknowledging.

 

[ORRFForever]

Just because it's loved doesn't mean it's good. Nickelback and McDonalds are very popular all around the world.

I agree.

 

[ismelofhockey]

Stealing this from an American poster @ismelofhockey...

2020 Draft:
USA: Faber, Sanderson, Laferriere
CAN: Lafrenière, Byfield, Jarvis, Guhle, Holloway, Quinn, Perfetti, Drysdale, Mercer, Cuylle, Schneider, Lapierre, Greig

2021 Draft:
USA: Beniers, L.Hughes, Knies
CAN: Power, Johnston, McTavish, Guenther, Stankoven, Clarke, Sillinger, Johnson

2022 Draft:
USA: Hutson, Cooley, Gauthier, Nazar
CAN: Wright, Korchinski, Mateychuk, Poitras, Geekie

2023 Draft:
USA: Smith, Leonard, Augustine
CAN: Bedard, Fantilli, Benson, Danielson, Ritchie

2024 Draft:
USA: Buium
CAN: Celebrini, Sennecke, Lindstrom, Iginla, Yakemchuk, Catton, Parekh, Dickinson, Luchanko

And 2025 + 2026 are STACKED with Canadian talent.

If the rolls were reversed, American posters would be saying Canadian Hockey is DOOMED.

I'm not American.

 

[ORRFForever]

I'm not American.

My bad. Sorry.

 

[Bradely]

It's gonna take time. There are other factors than pure demographics. Canada's been breeding hockey players for over a century in an environment that is far more conductive and a culture which is more front and central. The concentration of competition (more players per city, per region) is greater in Canada and IMO, coupled with the aforementioned factors, drives a higher yeild of maximum talent; the McDavids, MacKinnons and Makars.

There's also something else to consider. Hockey Canada (the institution, and some of its provincial counterparts, especially Hockey Quebec) have been sitting on their laurels, locked away in their ivory tower, giving way to a system that is less than ideal for talent growth. Losing an olympic gold medal game to the US for the first time, might bring some much needed change and instigate a renewal that would forestall or even prevent the US from taking over.

It's the pride of the nation, and nothing would instigate bigger changes than losing the crown. Food for thought.

Intangibles. Yep. Fair analyse.

 

[Tutu to]

This is ludicrous. Having a once in a century player doesn't mean you're about to become a power in the sport.

Japan still hasn't even caught up to Dominican Republic and Venezuela in baseball, let alone the USA.

All that matters is international results and Japan is clearly #1 in baseball right now.

 

[JimmyH]

I think we can all agree that Canada just crushed the US

Ha. This tourney just exposed NHL statistics. USA was millimeters from winning on several plays. Down to puck luck. It was actually close despite CAN having a monster roster and 1/3-3/3 of the league's best players on the ice at all times.

 

[ORRFForever]

Ha. This tourney just exposed NHL statistics. USA was millimeters from winning on several plays. Down to puck luck. It was actually close despite CAN having a monster roster and 1/3-3/3 of the league's best players on the ice at all times.

No one is saying the U.S. can't win - now or in 10 years.

We're just saying that Canada's about to leap ahead to where they've been in the past and if the U.S. is going to win one (or 2), it is more likely to happen in 2026 and 2028.

 

[Tutu to]

Cool bud. How's Canada's defense and goalie development been going?

Likely 2 first overall picks in defence in the next 3 years.

 

[Ducks4Cup]

The country that won 3 of the last 5 world jrs, beat Canada outright and lost in OT in a baby tournament; their window is closing?
Every Canadian should be relieved they dodged a bullet .
It’s Canada's window that’s closing

 

[Tutu to]

The country that won 3 of the last 5 world jrs, beat Canada outright and lost in OT in a baby tournament; their window is closing?
Every Canadian should be relieved they dodged a bullet .
It’s Canada's window that’s closing

The WJC can be deceiving. If we are looking at u-20 talent Canada has a very clear edge. The American golden generation still has years to win something but id be a bit concerned. That being said they are still producing decent players and will probably always play Canada tough.

 

[ORRFForever]

The WJC can be deceiving. If we are looking at u-20 talent Canada has a very clear edge. The American golden generation still has years to win something but id be a bit concerned. That being said they are still producing decent players and will probably always play Canada tough.

Of course. NO ONE is saying the U.S. won't be very good or can't win.
It's just, in the past, if you ranked best hockey nations, it was :

Canada

US
Sweden
Finland
Russia
(* The bottom 4 in no particular order *)

However, in 2026 and 2028, it will be

Canada
US

Sweden
Finland
Russia
(* The bottom 3 in no particular order *)

With Canada's recent production of high end players, expect a return (in about 5 years) to :

Canada

US
Sweden
Finland
Russia
(* The bottom 4 in no particular order *)