Is USA hockey's window smaller than we think ?

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Funny you include Wolf but don't mention Logan Thompson. Blackwood is also having quite a season.

I mean, cup winning Binnington just showed you can't discount that type of cup experience either. Hill also won a cup. Oettinger got lit up by McDavid in the WCF, so it's not like goaltending is this huge advantage.

Blackwood is 28 years old. Thompson turns 28 on Tuesday. That isn't young.

Wolf is 24 years old.

This is not an apples to apples comparison.

And yes, goaltending is a huge advantage for the USA. It doesn't guarantee a victory, but is your memory that short? Last Saturday all we heard from Canadians was how the USA won game one of the series due to goaltending and now because it turned around in game two that means it went away?

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Once again, if the entire US had skate-able winters, more people would play, which would increase the likelihood that more players (and top-end players) would be produced, which would obviously have an effect up the ladder.

Theres never going to be money to send that many into hockey programs.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Here’s the thing, and I’ll be serious for this post. I have a clear recollection of the USA winning the 1996 World Cup, and at that time I was beyond convinced that they would take over. Numbers, money etc, no way Canada could ever keep up in the future. We had arguments about it in my friends/family circles. That was almost 30 years ago.

The truth is that to come up with a team of 20 players, much of that stuff is irrelevant. It’s why countries like Holland, Portugal and Croatia can compete with Brazil, Germany or Spain etc in soccer.
Both countries have good developmental hockey programs at the moment. There was a suggestion that if Houston had Toronto’s climate, this conversation would be very different. That was a silly, if not more, than my past string of 4-5 posts.

I am 70 years old. I never believed the US would surpass Canada. 1996 essentially was an outlier due to the Orr boom in New England and an outlier crop of talented and rugged Michigan kids.

Michigan or New England

D - Hatcher (x2), Chambers, Leetch, Weinrich & Schneider

F - Modano, Lafontaine, Weight, Guerin, Amonte, Tkachuk, Young, Leclair

 

[ORRFForever]

Why should you? its your national sport. Canada has probably 10 million more people than Texas. You think you can beat just Texas in football or baseball? If not why not?

I am 70 years old.

You look GREAT for 70 !!!!

I thought you were in your early 40's.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

As Japan focus more on sports and not just academics, you'll see them dominate baseball.

This is ludicrous. Having a once in a century player doesn't mean you're about to become a power in the sport.

Japan still hasn't even caught up to Dominican Republic and Venezuela in baseball, let alone the USA.

 

[ORRFForever]

Blackwood is 28 years old. Thompson turns 28 on Tuesday. That isn't young.

Wolf is 24 years old.

This is not an apples to apples comparison.

And yes, goaltending is a huge advantage for the USA. It doesn't guarantee a victory, but is your memory that short? Last Saturday all we heard from Canadians was how the USA won game one of the series due to goaltending and now because it turned around in game two that means it went away?

I missed you, PB. Where you been?

I assumed you were one of Elon's DOGE team and you've been busy.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

This is ludicrous. Having a once in a century player doesn't mean you're about to become a power in the sport.

Japan still hasn't even caught up to Dominican Republic and Venezuela in baseball, let alone the USA.

Japan is the number 1 ranked baseball country.

 

[ORRFForever]

I am 70 years old. I never believed the US would surpass Canada. 1996 essentially was an outlier due to the Orr boom in New England and an outlier crop of talented and rugged Michigan kids.

Michigan or New England

D - Hatcher (x2), Chambers, Leetch, Weinrich & Schneider

F - Modano, Lafontaine, Weight, Guerin, Amonte, Tkachuk, Young, Leclair

1996 was an AMAZING US Team.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

The whole we like basketball, football, and baseball more is really dependent on demographics and doesn’t really dictate how good your prospects are going to be. The best basketball players and best prospects aren’t American any more. Best baseball player is from Japan. The US lost the World Series of baseball in their own national sport.
The kid with special arm talent will always pick baseball because that doesn’t translate to hockey.
The 7 footer with 8 foot wingspan was never gonna play hockey.
The people who play hockey are kids who’s parent have the money and free time for the commitment. If they play multiple sports they will pick which ever one they are better at

I don’t disagree that it is strange to talk about 12 year olds and how they project in 10 years. However that was the case with Crosby, McDavid, Bedard, and DuPont.

I asked already could Canada with more people beat Texas in football or baseball?
Canada plays those sports.

 

[JackSlater]

That's right, might as well throw in the towel. Over the hill bunch of has beens and a pipeline as dry as a desert. USA 2024 is akin to Hungary 1954 in soccer, very sad.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Japan is the number 1 ranked baseball country.

And Switzerland is ranked ahead of the USA in hockey. Belgium might still be ranked #1 in the FIFA rankings (they're so irrelevant I don't even check them) when they've never been a top 5 team.

These official rankings by whoever runs the sport are completely worthless. USA has the best baseball players right now and everyone knows that.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

I asked already could Canada with more people beat Texas in football or baseball?
Canada plays those sports.

Why are you excluding basketball?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I missed you, PB. Where you been?

I assumed you were one of Elon's DOGE team and you've been busy.

Been around. I've been looking into the waste, fraud, and abuse on HFBoards.

 

[koyvoo]

Is this thread a joke?

The biggest fallacy in this entire back and forth is that if the result was the opposite, the attitudes and narratives wouldn’t be the opposite.

I made one prediction befor the final. I posted here that the result is a toss up, but the fans of whoever loses will downplay the importance of the loss and the fans of the winners would act like it’s the most significant win in international hockey history. And that’s specific to fans on this particular website.

 

[Czechboy]

Is this thread a joke?

Canada thinks because they won game two of a two game series after losing game one and getting outscored and outshot over the two games that the USA is on the decline? Have some humility.

Canada had 3 players older than 33 on their roster, and USA had none.

Here were the 7 USA players over 30 (theoretically their age would make them not in play for 2030 Olympics):

Chris Kreider (13th forward)
Brock Nelson (12th forward)
JT Miller (3C)
Connor Hellebuyck (Goaltender 1)
Vincent Trocheck (11th forward)
Jaccob Slavin (LHD2)
Jake Guentzel (Forward 5 or 6)

Truthfully, 3 of those 7 likely don't even make it back next year when form shifts around, and are total non-loss replaceable players. Guentzel had a good tournament, but I'm sorry there's no way you're convincing me he's some irreplaceable player when players like Thompson, Keller, Caufield were left at home. We have plenty of middle 6 winger options. Miller is good, but another totally replaceable guy when someone like Thompson was left off. Slavin is a good player for sure, but keep in mind Quinn Hughes missed this tournament (arguably the best defenseman in the league right now), Sanderson was the 7D (a top 20 defenseman in the league), and players like Luke Hughes and Lane Hutson aren't even likely to get into the team by the Olympics next year. USA certainly isn't lacking for LH defensemen. And as good as Hellebuyck is, he hasn't exactly delivered in big spots for the USA (or the Jets). USAH does not struggle for goaltenders. I don't want to say we're the best with goaltenders (Russia), but I don't think we're lacking with Swayman, Oettinger, Wolf, Knight, Augustine all coming through the pipeline.

The two best forwards, Eichel and Matthews, will be 33 and 32 at the 2030 Olympics. Someone like Jack Hughes will be 28. The Tkachuk brothers will be 32 and 30. Quinn Hughes will be 30. McAvoy will be 32. Fox will be 31/32. Werenski will be 33. All those players should theoretically still be towards the end of their prime. Elite NHL'ers don't really drop off at 30, 31, 32, 33. I mean, yeah, that's probably the last big tournament for those players at a high level (except potentially Jack Hughes), but you could say the same for MacKinnon, McDavid, Makar, Marner, so I don't see how that's some novel concept that players age out and are replaced by younger players.

If you're questioning if USA has future NHL stars coming after them, I don't see why not. I know Canada likes to think they rule hockey because they control the institutions and get the most 1OA's and first round picks, but that doesn't equal the best NHL players. Lane Hutson was drafted 62OA, and looks like the best player from the 2022 draft. That's the type of player that looks like one of the future star defensemen of the league.

If you want to measure if the USA has future stars of the league, look at it like this. Here are Calder Finishes the last 5 years:

2023-24 (#2 and #3 American)
2022-23 ( #1)
2021-22 (#2)
2020-21 (#2 and #3)
2019-20 (#2)

And the reality is that with Hutson and Wolf the USA is guaranteed at least one top 3 finish this year. Maybe the victory.

If you want to look at other measures like percentage of NHL'ers, Canada is the country that is seeing their share decline over time. Within 10 years, there's every chance USA will equal Canada for share of NHL'ers. USA has won the last two World Junior Championships. That was for the first time ever that they repeated. Their two best NTDP age groups (2001 birth year and 2004 birth year) are 23/24 and 19/20 years of age right now.

I don't possibly know how people could suggest USA had a small window of success and it won't continue. If anything, Canada is the country on the decline in hockey prowess and the USA is the ascending country.

I don't necessarily disagree with any of this.. but similar arguments were made in 1996 and the US has zero gold medals at the senior level since 1996. The only thing I differ on is that I'd argue US doesn't have much international senior success at all. They've had great success of drafting, developing and winning U18's and U20's. They haven't had that much at winning events with men playing. 4 Skoda Bronzes, 2 Best on Best Olympic Silvers and now a silver at whatever you consider this tourney.

If I had to guess, Canada has about 10 golds in the same window? And almost all of the best on bests. US has to win more than one to call themselves the champs IMO. Win the 4 nations, then 2026 Olympics and then maybe we talk about it. Now it'd have to be 2026 Olympics and then the 2028 World Cup. If that seems unfair then look at Canada with 2010, 2014, 2016 and now this 4 nations win.

And for your other point which I agreed with... the second the US won that round robin, HF got flooded with this is our time type stuff. I wouldn't had changed my tune at all if the US had won that OT.

Need some wins at a senior level. There are none in the 2000's. Behind Finns, Russians, Czechs, Slovaks, Swedes and Canadians in senior tournament wins in the last quarter century. The entire nation is behind Sidney Crosby.

 

[ORRFForever]

Been around. I've been looking into the waste, fraud, and abuse on HFBoards.

LMAO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Good for you. You can never cut too deep.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Why are you excluding basketball?

Because all you need are 8 players in hoop as opposed to 20+ for the other two and hockey.

 

[WarriorofTime]

The huge wealth gap in the states will really hinder their top talents (or potentially top talents from rising to the top). The poor neighborhood kid can't compete against the rich well trained kids anymore, and theres no middle class at all. As Japan focus more on sports and not just academics, you'll see them dominate baseball.

73 % of MLB players are Americans. The best pitchers don't participate in the WBC because they need to preserve their innings, making it more so a fun exhibition than a true best on best or anything.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Because all you need are 8 players in hoop as opposed to 20+ for the other two and hockey.

So what? How is that relevant when you have milllions of people to pull from.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

The biggest fallacy in this entire back and forth is that if the result was the opposite, the attitudes and narratives wouldn’t be the opposite.

I made one prediction befor the final. I posted here that the result is a toss up, but the hand of whoever loses will downplay the importance of the loss and the fans of the winners would act like it’s the most significant win in international hockey history. And that’s specific to fans on this particular website.

I'm not swayed by such small samples. A flip of a coin hockey game doesn't make me draw such broad sweeping conclusions about topics that are very far-reaching in scope.

I was reading some of the threads about Canada after last Saturday's game, and it seemed too far for me.

I personally don't see how anything has changed much in the last few weeks. The two teams played a two game series and split it. That's about what you'd expect, no?

 

[koyvoo]

I am 70 years old. I never believed the US would surpass Canada. 1996 essentially was an outlier due to the Orr boom in New England and an outlier crop of talented and rugged Michigan kids.

Michigan or New England

D - Hatcher (x2), Chambers, Leetch, Weinrich & Schneider

F - Modano, Lafontaine, Weight, Guerin, Amonte, Tkachuk, Young, Leclair

We’ll, then you should remember that the Americans did make massive strides from the 80s into the 90s, where before the mid 90s, despite what happened in lake placid in 1980, no one took the Americans as serious contenders. In the 1991 final, it felt like a letdown, and only the political climate in the Soviet Union kept the final from being the traditional Canada vs Russia.

By 1996, the competition level was completely different, and Canada, to their overall detriment, built a team for Nagano 1998 specifically to beat the Americans. Since then, other than few anomalies, Canada and USA have clearly been the top two in hockey.

 

[ORRFForever]

This thread has gone to Hell so I am off to Church - see ALL of you there!

 

[GirardSpinorama]

73 % of MLB players are Americans. The best pitchers don't participate in the WBC because they need to preserve their innings, making it more so a fun exhibition than a true best on best or anything.

Literally only americans think its just a fun exhibition.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

So what?

So what? You need three to five times times the players to compete against the smaller population who's best athletes play those sports while yours don't, thats why. Lot easier to come up with 8 elite players sp than 20-40.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I don't necessarily disagree with any of this.. but similar arguments were made in 1996 and the US has zero gold medals at the senior level since 1996. The only thing I differ on is that I'd argue US doesn't have much international senior success at all. They've had great success of drafting, developing and winning U18's and U20's. They haven't had that much at winning events with men playing. 4 Skoda Bronzes, 2 Best on Best Olympic Silvers and now a silver at whatever you consider this tourney.

If I had to guess, Canada has about 10 golds in the same window? And almost all of the best on bests. US has to win more than one to call themselves the champs IMO. Win the 4 nations, then 2026 Olympics and then maybe we talk about it. Now it'd have to be 2026 Olympics and then the 2028 World Cup. If that seems unfair then look at Canada with 2010, 2014, 2016 and now this 4 nations win.

And for your other point which I agreed with... the second the US won that round robin, HF got flooded with this is our time type stuff. I wouldn't had changed my tune at all if the US had won that OT.

Need some wins at a senior level. There are none in the 2000's. Behind Finns, Russians, Czechs, Slovaks, Swedes and Canadians in senior tournament wins in the last quarter century. The entire nation is behind Sidney Crosby.

But I'm not saying USA is better than Canada. I think the countries are a coin flip right now (that's how you get a two game series where each wins one, separated by one goal, and a few shots).

I'm not going to argue you're wrong about the facts. USA hasn't won any Best on Best. But it's a little deceiving because we didn't get Best on Best in 2018 or 2022. The 2016 Best on Best wasn't really best on best (Bettman's modified version) and this 2025 tournament was also a modified version without one of the big 5 (and country's weren't allowed to pick non-NHL'ers and teams/players were opting out to preserve their NHL season). Did they even give out medals for this tournament? I truthfully don't even know asking you this question.

So it's a little deceiving to say USA hasn't won Best on Bests. They weren't as good in the 90's or 00's, and we've essentially had 1-3 (depending on your definition) best to bests in the last 15 years. I know you like to bring up the Mens Worlds, and I'm not saying it's wrong. It's true, but I don't see how that actually goes to which nation is better when we never see nations field their best rosters. I wish they did, but it's a flawed, at best, measure of which are the best hockey nations.