Is USA hockey's window smaller than we think ?

[Mattb124]

The U.S. has 10x the population of Canada and U.S. youth hockey participation is growing while it is shrinking in Canada.

 

[Peiskos]

The U.S. has 10x the population of Canada and U.S. youth hockey participation is growing while it is shrinking in Canada.

Irrelevant when all you need os 20 some elite guys to ice a team, Canada is always going to have that.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Glob

No doubt about that. But, a big part of it being their national sport is because their homeland is the Great White North. All can go skate outside, and play hockey all day long. What a country!!

Global warming is eating into that.

 

[kevsh]

I said this in another thread but first, U.S. is doing fine. Lots of talent, lots of young talent, and at all positions.

The tipping point though is Canada still turns out generational talents like McDavid and Crosby while the U.S. has yet to. But when they finally do, watch out.

 

[Mathieukferland]

This is a real looking in the mirror moment for the US program.

In terms of development, no. They’ve got the maximum out of their player pool and have the best team they have ever had at the moment. That being said, perhaps there needs to be questions at coaching or mentality level if the best American team ever assembled could not get it over the line in the clutch against the the weakest best on best Team Canada I’ve seen in my lifetime

Perhaps it goes to the mentality of the NTDP; I was at a lot of the select camps and regional camps when I was younger. Having lived and played in both countries, I find the USA (at least the messaging from the NTDP people) was that development and pushing players to uncomfortable positions was much more important to them than their win loss record. That is a stark contrast from junior in Canada, where it is a business and winning is prioritised at all costs. That would be my anecdotal theory, but I’m not sure. The USA has to take advantage of this group whilst they’re in their prime though

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Irrelevant when all you need os 20 some elite guys to ice a team, Canada is always going to have that.

The 300M is irrelevant because other than the old school 3M, no other states have
anything resembling a hockey culture and even with The State of Hockey, The Hub of Hockey and Hockey Town, they lose the majority of their athletes to football, baseball, and basketball.

Had a back and forth with another poster about if just the 3M's had a more intense. deeper culture would they be an every tournament threat? Those three states alone
had 11 of the 19 players who actually played, just shy of 60%.

 

[Mattb124]

Irrelevant when all you need is 20 some elite guys to ice a team, Canada is always going to have that.

You are right, the country that was outscored 4-3 by the U.S. in the 4 Nations should have 0 cause for concern.

 

[SanDogBrewin]

The window is wide open with more young players waiting to come through.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Don't see some big advantage for Canada with 01-05 born players, so no I don't really view the 2025 NHL 4 Nations Faceoff (where the separation appeared to be minuscule) as USA's only and final opportunity to win a somewhat best on best event. It'll likely remain close for the foreseeable future.. and if you're talking like 2034 Olympics, then well I have no idea as that's so far out the realm of active players right now.

 

[koyvoo]

Series is tied 1-1 imo.

One game had a lot more weight. Just like regular season wins compared playoff wins. The best get results when the stakes are highest.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

USA window is fine to win, they are on par with Canada now other than goaltending but that doesnt mean our goaltending will get stomped Bin was great. this could have gone either way though

 

[Riggins]

With best on best every 2 years, Canada and the US will probably win 80% of these tournaments for the foreseeable future. It's a matter of time before the US wins one.

 

[NVious]

Not at all.

In the last 10 years USA has 4 wins at WJC and Canada has 4.

If anything I think this 4NF and the likely rematch next year is going to take the USA to the next level. Based on population alone, it wouldn't surprise me if USA eventually surpasses Canada, but there is no going back to where Canada is clearly better.

World Juniors have been showing that for some time.

 

[93LEAFS]

Hockey will always be king in Canada. The best athletes focus on hockey. Of course they play soccer and baseball and lacrosse and golf. They are athletes who can be good at lots of sports. But the very best focus on hockey. It’s why Canada always has the super elite players. The US super elite athletes focus on other sports first.

I don't think this is exactly accurate. Hockey unlike other sports isn't something you can pick up once people realize you are significantly more athletic than your peers and dominate like Football or basketball. Most people who make the NHL pick it up at 6 years old or so, and are probably on ice at a younger age than that. So, yes, maybe the very athletic kids already in hockey stick with it, but less and less are picking up hockey at a young age simply due to the costs associated with the sport. So much of hockey is about being fluid on your skates, and if you don't have reps doing that a ton at a young age you will be way behind. Whereas the motions in Football, and Basketball are quite natural to pick up later, since most athletic people know how to run and jump.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Not at all.

In the last 10 years USA has 4 wins at WJC and Canada has 4.

If anything I think this 4NF and the likely rematch next year is going to take the USA to the next level. Based on population alone, it wouldn't surprise me if USA eventually surpasses Canada, but there is no going back to where Canada is clearly better.

World Juniors have been showing that for some time.

World Juniors are a meaningless yardstick. I remember the same arguments a long time ago when Canada was having a skid at the U20, not winning gold for 7 years, after 1997. That didn't change anything in regards to Canada's future wins at the Olympics and world cup. In those 7 years, Russia won it 3 times. They didn't become a powerhouse despite the outlook.

 

[NVious]

World Juniors are a meaningless yardstick. I remember the same arguments a long time ago when Canada was having a skid at the U20, not winning gold for 7 years, after 1997. That didn't change anything in regards to Canada's future wins at the Olympics and world cup. In those 7 years, Russia won it 3 times. They didn't become a powerhouse despite the outlook.

Disagree and other teams not taking the next step doesn't have anything to do with the soon to be 400 million person USA where Hockey just made a massive breakthrough.

This was the first year where Canada's roster wasn't even clearly better, that's going to be hard to remedy going forward considering that Canada is way smaller and Hockey is only going to grow in the states while Canada is already extremely expensive.

 

[End on a Hinote]

Both American and Canadian programs almost seem like they work like the stock market.

You had that powerhouse US junior team '04, followed by 5 straight for Canada, then USA wins again.

I remember a cover story from THN in 2005 saying that the US was supposed to become a massive powerhouse after the '96 WC and them asking what happened?

Then you have them nearly beating Canada in OT in 2010, causing many to believe it was only a matter of time the USA overthrown Canada as the #1 nation. That was 15 years ago.

Then you have Canada winning 2 straight WJHC's in 2022 & 2023, only for the US to do the same the next 2 years and with Canada finishing without a medal on both occasions.

It's not a straight upwards/downwards arrow for either nations. It's going to be one step forward, two steps back.

 

[ORRFForever]

Canada has prime McDavid now, Bedard, Celebrini, McKenna in 2026 and Dupont in 2027.

Who does the US have coming up ?

I LOVE this thread but I would have worded it differently. I would have asked, "Is Canada about to jump ahead of everyone else?"

And the answer appears to be... Yes!

We've averaged 15 first round picks since 2000. We will have close to 20 in 2025 and very high numbers in 2026.

Just like the U.S. had 5 amazing drafts from 2015 - 2019 and those players dominated the 4 Nations Cup, Canada's NEXT Generation is coming and no country will have an answer any time soon.

 

[Master P]

Yeah, I guess if I was canadian I'd be trying to take as many shots at the US before the olympics.

Tick Tock Tick Tock...

 

[WarriorofTime]

World Juniors are a meaningless yardstick. I remember the same arguments a long time ago when Canada was having a skid at the U20, not winning gold for 7 years, after 1997. That didn't change anything in regards to Canada's future wins at the Olympics and world cup.

This is just flat wrong. That core of players from those years performed poorly in the 06 Olympics.

 

[GKJ]

Unless the US becomes a country that stops producing hockey players, the window will always be open, unless you get people that just have poor roster construction, or more countries produce top tier talent

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

World Juniors are a meaningless yardstick. I remember the same arguments a long time ago when Canada was having a skid at the U20, not winning gold for 7 years, after 1997. That didn't change anything in regards to Canada's future wins at the Olympics and world cup. In those 7 years, Russia won it 3 times. They didn't become a powerhouse despite the outlook.

Yeah world Juniors isn't a great way to project best on best success, all of our top guys at that age are playing NHL instead of that tourney

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

This is just flat wrong. That core of players from those years performed poorly in the 06 Olympics.

And won in 2011, and went on a major U20 run after 2004. It's not wrong, it shows that there ups and downs, but you decide to ignore that.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Yeah world Juniors isn't a great way to project best on best success, all of our top guys at that age are playing NHL instead of that tourney

Only a handful of guys never play in a world juniors, typically late bloomers. Some guys play up of course but they’re still there at some point. The reason it’s not a perfect gauge is that it’s so age group restrictive. You can have five great players one birth year that become big time senior national team contributors and zero another. Or one guy can be a mainstay on a senior team for like 15 years. As a barometer based on zoomed out aggregate results it’s fairly solid to tell you where countries are at.

 

[ORRFForever]

Next year is definitely this generation of Americans time, they will all be smack in the middle of their prime and 2030 you may start to see some decline. That said the Americans are producing enough talent at this point that they are never going to be bad again imo they will always be competing for Golds.

This!

If the U.S. is going to win / dominate a Best On Best, 2025 - 2028 is when the window is at its widest. Thankfully we won 2025.

Hughes was invincible in that four nations tourney...

Yes - that was a pleasant surprise. I was shocked how poor he played - I think we all were.