Is this Ottawa's year.

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Every summer at some point after free agency I do apoll, asking the same question, is this the year the Ottawa Senators, Buffalo Sabres, or Detroit Red Wings breakthrough and make the playoffs.

Don't look now but as of today the Ottawa Senators are in a playoff spot, they have the #2 wildcard spot and they aren't that far behind Boston for 3rd in the division.

All they need to do is play probably about 3 games above 500 from here and that could be enough.

So I'm asking Will they do it?

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[Lahey]

No lol

 

[jetsforever]

Yes if Ullmark keeps playing really well

 

[JimmyApples]

Too early to tell

They’ve played really good hockey this season. Stutzle, Tkachuk and Batherson are having great seasons, Chabot is having a really nice bounce back season, Jensen has been a huge upgrade to the D, and Ullmark has come alive after struggling early in the season. Not even looking at the record, the team is playing noticeably really well.

They have a pretty tough schedule on the road coming up. If they’re still in a wildcard spot at the end of it, they probably have a good chance. However, seems just as likely the team goes in a slump or an injury causes the team to fall apart.

 

[NyQuil]

They have a pretty tough schedule on the road coming up. If they’re still in a wildcard spot at the end of it, they probably have a good chance. However, seems just as likely the team goes in a slump or an injury causes the team to fall apart.

This extended road trip (due to the WJC being in Ottawa) against some really tough competition will probably determine a lot.

 

[Sting]

Yes they're the Cup favorite.

 

[bobholly39]

They're on pace for 87 points in 82 games.

Last year you needed 91 points to qualify
Two years ago, 92 points
3 years ago, 100 points
Skip covid years
2019, 98 points
2018, 97 points
2017, 95 points

i'll stop there. My point is, last 2 years the bar was lower than usual, but normally it takes ~95-98 points to make playoffs in the east, and always above 91 points it seems.

I disagree that they only need ~3 games above 500 from here on out. They probably need quite a bit more. Odds are, at least 1-2 teams behind them get hot and end up at ~90+ points.

Can Ottawa do it? Yes, in theory, but they have a tendency of ending up on the outside looking in. So I'll say, they won't make it.

 

[swiftwin]

Maybe.

Ask me after game 82.

 

[centipede2233]

They get in, Toronto wins Atlantic and plays Ottawa in rd 1, loses in overtime in g7, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

They're on pace for 87 points in 82 games.

Last year you needed 91 points to qualify
Two years ago, 92 points
3 years ago, 100 points
Skip covid years
2019, 98 points
2018, 97 points
2017, 95 points

i'll stop there. My point is, last 2 years the bar was lower than usual, but normally it takes ~95-98 points to make playoffs in the east, and always above 91 points it seems.

I disagree that they only need ~3 games above 500 from here on out. They probably need quite a bit more. Odds are, at least 1-2 teams behind them get hot and end up at ~90+ points.

Can Ottawa do it? Yes, in theory, but they have a tendency of ending up on the outside looking in. So I'll say, they won't make it.

The east has been especially mediocre this year

 

[Fledgemyhedge]

First time in years I’ve said No. so they probably make it

 

[Golden_Jet]

A lot will depend on, the 9 game road trip starting tomorrow, longest in their history.

Somehow the NHL thought it was a good idea to throw three B2B’s in there on the road trip.

Road trip due to WJC tournament on Ottawa this year.

 

[nowhereman]

No. They are the 5th best team in their division and will not beat out the Rangers or anyone else who falls out of the Eastern top 3.

 

[tmg]

Yes. Detroit and Buffalo have had their years of coming tantalizingly close to making the playoffs but just missing - I think this year is Ottawa’s turn!

Oh wait, is that not what you were asking?

 

[Hisch13r]

They do seem like one of the 8 best teams but it'd also be funny if they kept up the tradition of Buffalo/Detroit/Ottawa narrowly missing the playoffs. Buffalo missed by a pt in 22-23. Detroit lost a tiebreaker last year. It's Ottawa's turn.

 

[Rorschach]

Too soon to say. At least ask after the trade deadline.

 

[SNES]

Until this team clinches, I will always plan for the bottom to fall out. This road trip will perhaps determine the season.
We’ll see…anything over 500 would be encouraging

 

[Coffee]

the Sens are not the bad guys,
I keep telling everyone this.

They are not to be taken seriously

 

[Nogatco Rd]

Don't look now but as of today the Ottawa Senators are in a playoff spot, they have the #2 wildcard spot and they aren't that far behind Boston for 3rd in the division.

Kinda misleading to just go by raw points when looking at the playoff race, IMO “points above games played” is the most concise and accurate way to compare teams and capture pace.

TOR +9
FLA +7
TBL +6
BOS +3
OTT +2
DRW -2

Merely passing Boston doesn’t give them the inside track on the A3 spot, as Tampa is outplaying them both with a few less GP

 

[gritdash60]

No

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I said yes before the season and going to stick to it.

 

[BradyTkachucky]

No

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Yes cause of Ullmark.

But the picture will be clearer after this 9 game road trip.

Ottawa's advanced stats have them top 10 in many categories this year and top half of nearly all important metrics.

They will need to make a key addition in the trade deadline, though to potentially make it over the hump.

 

[Fatass]

Of the notoriously bad four in that division Ottawa is the only one that is doing good. They sit in a playoff spot after 30 games. They will make the playoffs this year providing their GM doesn’t do something stupid.

 

[PainForShane]

Kinda misleading to just go by raw points when looking at the playoff race, IMO “points above games played” is the most concise and accurate way to compare teams and capture pace.

TOR +9
FLA +7
TBL +6
BOS +3
OTT +2
DRW -2

Merely passing Boston doesn’t give them the inside track on the A3 spot, as Tampa is outplaying them both with a few less GP

Actually points % is usually to compare while accounting for pace. If you prefer to use 'points above GP' that's fine but that's not as accepted, nor is it as good at capturing points pace imo.

Anyway nhl.com has a sortable points % column, Ottawa is currently 8th (2nd wild card), just ahead of NYR & PHI and just below BOS.

So to me, the question is whether Ullmark and that top line can outperform whatever the Rangers end up doing for the rest of the year. I legitimately don't understand what's going on with the Rangers and / or how they've been playing this year, so I don't have an informed opinion on whether this is likely.

My guess re: Ottawa in the playoffs? Coin flip. As others have said, I believe that road trip is season defining, let's see how they do