Is the window closing?

[EbonyRaptor]

After winning the Cup for 4 years in a row, my team (Hawks) and your team (Kings) were bounced out of the playoffs in the 1st round. Is the window closing for our teams?

The Hawks salary cap struggles are well documented and we've had the annual purge of key players. While the d-corps is probably better with the additions of Campbell and Kempny, the forward lines are thin and a cause for legitimate concern. And key players are getting older and either have started to decline or will within the next couple seasons.

The Kings have been hit with the Voynov and Richards problems, d-men getting old and moving on or getting injured, Gaborik not the same player he once was and too much cap space tied up in Brown.

While those are other issues can be debated, what seems pretty clear is that neither team is as strong as they were a couple years ago. Has their ship sailed?

Click to read more...

 

[Herby]

Yes.

The system isn't designed for teams to have decade long runs. Even with the steal contracts of Keith and Carter both teams ended up in cap trouble.

The Kings have drafted very poorly and the Hawks chose to get rid of younger players rather than veterans and that hurt too.

 

[TruKingFan]

All teams go through this cycle with the difference being how high (win championships) or how low (lottery pick) they go or how long they stay on which side of the cycle. Both teams may be seen as trending down but both teams can still reload pretty quickly. We shall see.

 

[Omni Owl]

Who knows what the future holds. I'm sure Penguins fans were thinking the same thing up until recently...

 

[Fishhead]

Yea. I don't think either team would be considered a strong contender, but at the same time if either Chicago or the Kings won it, no one would be surprised.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I think so.

What Herby said--you actively get punished for having a winning, veteran team. Unless you're both genius AND fortunate (and ballsy) enough to ship off winning, veteran assets for future assets that ALSO win the cup in their stead. And I'm not talking about trading like a Mitchell for a 2nd, I'm talking about trading a Kopitar for a McDavid. It's nigh impossible and stupid to imagine, frankly, because how can you be the GM who trades a two (or three, like Toews) time cup winning franchise center for futures because the cap hit will be prohibitive? Yes, I know the easy answer--which is what both teams are doing--is to attempt to surround those core pieces with cheap labor, but cap space is finite and other teams WILL have it better at some point.

I DO think some teams are better set up for long term success than the others and the Kings and Hawks have shown how you can do that to an extent, but at some point, the rest of the league catches up via youth and salary cap room.

 

[acor]

No. I don't believe either Kings or Hawks are done. Reason- their core players are still here, and still in their prime... Actually, players likre Doughty, Quick, Kopi, Kane, Toews, Keith etc. still have some prime years ahead of them... With good supporting cast, those teams are still contenders...I'd like to remind, that after first cup in 2010, Blackhawks faced some cap problems, wich resulted in departure of many players and two "down years" (barely made playoffs in 2011, got bounced by "good-but-not-great" Yotes team in R1 in 2012). In 2013 they were back on track... Obviously, we will see what 2016/17 brings, but so far, its too early to write either Kings otr Hawks off...
Pittsbourgh Penguins also were supposed to be "done" as recently, as in Decemnber'15... Hell, PIT fans openly speculated about trading Crosby or Malkin, or even (sic!), trading them both and starting over...

 

[Trolfoli]

Kings are done. Still have a decent core, but there's no winning without a defense, and the skill level of the Kings top 6 wingers is brutal.

Maybe Lombardi still makes a trade to fix some issues, maybe all of Kempe/Amadio/Ladue break out in the next couple of years.... It'll take a miracle to get the Kings back in it at this point.

 

[Vamos Rafa]

I refuse to believe it. I refuse to believe it!

 

[Keith Sweaty]

Circle of life

 

[KingsFan7824]

It has to. Even if a GM makes every right move, and doesn't pay the wrong guy at the wrong time, and gets rid of every big money player a year too early instead of too late, and gets McDavid for Kopitar, etc, etc, the mix is always different. Winning 1 Cup is tough. Winning multiple ones in a short amount of time is that much more so. You have to have the right mix, at the right time, at the same time, and that doesn't come around too often.

Even in the pre-cap days, but with free agency, how many teams won 2 out of 3 Cups? Not many. The Kings did it from 12-14, the Hawks from 13-15. Now, what gives the Hawks the edge is 2009 and 2010, when they won so quickly, with Kane and Toes in their early 20's, and still on their ELC's. The Hawks have had 2 cap purges, and had more success after the first one. We don't know how rare that is, because the cap hasn't been around that long, but that sounds like it should be a rare thing.

As soon as you have to start paying more and more guys, that's when your chances decrease. It's not the responsibility of Kopitar, Kane, or Toews to take less so that the franchise can win more though.

 

[The Tikkanen]

The supposed heart and soul, the warriors, the good in the locker room guys sank the Kings ship with their on and off the ice performances. I think the Kings are hoping for the best this season by bringing in marginal free agents, 2 players the Oilers didn't even want anymore and hoping Vegas selects Brown. Having 6 million dollars into a 3rd line winger who scores 10 soft goals a year will kill any NHL team. If that happens the Kings could be players again next July 1st and fix the glaring hole at #1LW. The core is still there, you just have 2 players clogging the drain in Brown and Greene that need to be dispatched. Until that time the Kings are in limbo.

 

[DOSKI]

Over the next five years the Kings have as good a chance for Cups as any of the top ten teams in the league. Maybe even a bit better.

Currently, they have a very professional management group. Excellent coaches. Probably the most refined and copied development system. They've got a solid on-ice system in place with the whole franchise learning and playing it from top to bottom. And they're likely starting 3-5 elite players this year.

More importantly, the majority of the roster has been using the Kings system very successfully for the past few years. 90% of successful hockey is getting individual players to gel and play instinctively within a system at a high pace. Team speed, unit speed, that's what counts, that's where winning "speed" comes from. Five player units making quick instinctive decisions in sync while under pressure. Team speed comes from solid unit play. It's not really about "what's the sum of the average foot speed of your individual players?". It's more about, "how fast does each five man unit make good decisions while passing or shooting the puck?"

When the Kings get in sync and start rolling; well, there are only a few teams that can really handle or respond to them. It's better when that wave starts rolling in late winter and peaking in the spring. The rest of it, the 10%, if you will, depends upon competitive desire, injuries, timing, and a bit of puck luck. And one or two favorable calls in the playoffs.

So yeah, window's open with a fresh breeze blowing. GKG!!

 

[YP44]

Yes.

The system isn't designed for teams to have decade long runs. Even with the steal contracts of Keith and Carter both teams ended up in cap trouble.

The Kings have drafted very poorly and the Hawks chose to get rid of younger players rather than veterans and that hurt too.

What bad picks have the kings made since winning the cup? The kings have drafted well IMO, but have not had very many picks, and very few first rounders. I forget what the percent is but 2nd round picks playing over 200 NHL games is pretty rare. Since their first cup LA has drafted, Pearson, Zykov, Lintunemi, McKeown, Kempe, Cernak, and Calgue in the first two rounds. Considering there's only two 1s rounders in there (one at 30th other 29th) in there that's not bad.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

What bad picks have the kings made since winning the cup? The kings have drafted well IMO, but have not had very many picks, and very few first rounders. I forget what the percent is but 2nd round picks playing over 200 NHL games is pretty rare. Since their first cup LA has drafted, Pearson, Zykov, Lintunemi, McKeown, Kempe, Cernak, and Calgue in the first two rounds. Considering there's only two 1s rounders in there (one at 30th other 29th) in there that's not bad.

The reality of the NHL draft is there are only a small group of players each year who would be considered "can't miss" and those players are selected in the top-10 - well before successful teams like the Kings and Hawks draft. So calling a draft pick that was taken in the 20-30 range "bad" should probably be called "bad luck" instead of insinuating "bad judgement" because where the Kings and Hawks have drafted lately is pretty much a crap shoot, especially if the player is selected close to the experts slotting of that player - in other words it wasn't a "reach" pick.

The result is not being able to restock the cupboard with "can't miss" prospects so alternative strategies need to be employed to keep the team competitive, mainly signing free agents and hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. The Hawks got lucky with Panarin but it's not a sustainable strategy in my opinion.

Successful teams can't rely on the draft to maintain their success. The system is working as designed. It means successful teams decline which is the way it looks like the Kings and Hawks are starting to do.

My optimistic hope is that the Hawks have maybe 1 or 2 more years to legitimately compete for the Cup before key members of the core group decline to the point where they are no longer elite players. But that assumes that there are enough quality depth players to supplement the cope group and I'm not sure there are, at least not heading into the coming season.

 

[theMajor]

maybe but its part of the process. both teams still have their cores still intact

 

[DOSKI]

.... So calling a draft pick that was taken in the 20-30 range "bad" should probably be called "bad luck" instead of insinuating "bad judgement" because where the Kings and Hawks have drafted lately is pretty much a crap shoot, especially if the player is selected close to the experts slotting of that player - in other words it wasn't a "reach" pick....

Nice post. Another vote for realism!

Could also be called "Champion's Blues" or "Franchise Success" picks. Only have this privilege with a successful franchise. Good problem to have.

 

[Seventyx7]

Nah. The Pens window was closed, the Sharks window was DEFINITELY closed before last year. Yet they meet in the finals. Smart retooling around a core as strong as JQ/DD/AK should continue to keep the Kings in contention. The key is SMART retooling. Letting Lucic go, and signing a bunch of low-risk one year deals was a good start.

 

[BigBrown]

Not sure about the Hawks prospect situation but they definitely have done a better job planning for the future by moving guys out for picks multiple times (often out of necessity obviously). Also free agent prospects are lining up to play for the Hawks. They'll be fine.

Not as confident about our Kings though. They've been hemorrhaging draft picks and prospects for a couple of years now and very few still around show much upside beyond bottom 6 forward or bottom pair d-man.

 

[YP44]

Nah. The Pens window was closed, the Sharks window was DEFINITELY closed before last year. Yet they meet in the finals. Smart retooling around a core as strong as JQ/DD/AK should continue to keep the Kings in contention. The key is SMART retooling. Letting Lucic go, and signing a bunch of low-risk one year deals was a good start.

agree with the bolded.

With Lucic I think it was smart to offer the contracts the kings did and do not do the 7 year $6M that edmonton gave

 

[LAKings88]

I am grateful for two cups.

I think LA, if they get into the playoffs, can still compete.

To maintain success tho, a GM has to be ruthless. Youth has to be identified and cultivated through the draft and farm system and integrated. Trading for UFAs should only be done when you are serious contenders. In a cap world, a team is most dangerous when a young core has gelled and is on the rise. I honestly think Pittsburgh was carried by Murray, not to mention two of the best players in the world are on that team.

I don't think LA is a bad team, I just think the gap between struggling franchises and those at the top is leveling out. It will be much more difficult to grab those few playoff spots.

 

[mattgkg]

kings had a bad last month and backed into the playoffs. it just wasn't in the cards. the sharks got the bounces and super fortunate to score on their first shot multiple times.

the over dramatics are awesome. kings will be fine. I'm excited to see more of a fast game from them this year. can't wait to see who gets cut from the roster to light a fire under their ***** and get rid of any lingering complacency.

 

[kingsboy11]

The penguins winning the cup this year gives me hope. It's an unspectacular roster than managed to play their best hockey when it mattered the most. This year the Kings played their absolute worst hockey at the worst possible time. The sky is not falling despite what some people may think. But the window isn't going to be open forever

 

[Keith Sweaty]

kings had a bad last month and backed into the playoffs. it just wasn't in the cards. the sharks got the bounces and super fortunate to score on their first shot multiple times.

the over dramatics are awesome. kings will be fine. I'm excited to see more of a fast game from them this year. can't wait to see who gets cut from the roster to light a fire under their ***** and get rid of any lingering complacency.

I'm all about trashing rivals but let's not be delusional.

 

[jimmy1100]

I'm all about trashing rivals but let's not be delusional.

Agreed - that series was not close at all. The Kings were far more lucky to not get swept than the Sharks were with luck on first shots.

To OP - No, I don't believe either team's window is closing. Does either's future look as rosy as it did two years ago? Of course not. But both teams still have their cores intact. Pittsburgh just showed that you can win a cup with a bunch of lesser known, lesser experienced players filling out the roster. It's all about hitting that stride at the right time and keeping it going.

The key is the core. Cup winning teams have a solid core and what is supplementing that core gets hot at the right time and goes on a run. As long as Hawks/Kings keep the core together, the window is wide open. It's just more difficult to get that solid supplement when you have less cap space and lower draft picks to work with.