Is Tampa cooked?

If a team with the Art Ross winner, two other too 20 scorers, a Selke nominee and a Vezina nominee can’t put up a fight in the first round of the playoffs, then something is definitely wrong. I’d say the head coach’s position looks the most suspect.
They need some sort of a shake up.
 
I disagree as many of the core players won't repeat what they did this year IMO.

Or maybe they do the Boston thing and over perform for one more year but how many players keep their production up at 26,27,28, ect...?

So it seems the issue is you think 26-31 is old.

Have a look at the NHL's stat leaders.

There was a bit about ten-twenty years ago where a large portion of the leaders were under the age of 25, that is no longer the case. 26-31 is prime.
 
So it seems the issue is you think 26-31 is old.

Have a look at the NHL's stat leaders.

There was a bit about ten-twenty years ago where a large portion of the leaders were under the age of 25, that is no longer the case. 26-31 is prime.
Like i said it's a historical reality as players age in their later 20s there is a decline in production generally and too many of TB players and their top 2 defenders are aging.
 
Like i said it's a historical reality as players age in their later 20s there is a decline in production generally

I'm familiar with what those charts looked ten years ago, but right now the age distribution of NHL scoring leaders suggests it's later than it used to be. It was also never a steep decline from 26-31.

It's funny how teams led by 20-24 year olds haven't been winning many cups in recent years. But we still talk like the 2010 Blackhawks is the normal case.

You'd wonder how the Panthers and Knights just won the cup if they are as over the hill as you claim.
 
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I'm familiar with what those charts looked ten years ago, but right now the age distribution of NHL scoring leaders suggests it's later than it used to be. It was also never a steep decline from 26-31.

It's funny how teams led by 20-24 year olds haven't been winning many cups in recent years. But we still talk like the 2010 Blackhawks is the normal case.

You'd wonder how the Panthers and Knights just won the cup if they are as over the hill as you claim.
Florida is in a slightly different and earlier situation than TB is in right now.

TB has a lousy pipeline and draft capital ahs been expended already for the last 2 seasons.

Sure trading the rights to Howard will help them a bit but the team is older with lots of miles on it and these things tend to catch up to teams, why would TB escape this reality?
 
If a team with the Art Ross winner, two other too 20 scorers, a Selke nominee and a Vezina nominee can’t put up a fight in the first round of the playoffs, then something is definitely wrong. I’d say the head coach’s position looks the most suspect.
They need some sort of a shake up.
Bring back Torts to squeeze more juice from the aging core?
 
Tampa losing in the first round next year to a different opponent would 100% say there cooked.

They still seem legit. It was just an unfortunate combination of injuries to key depth players that made the Florida series a quick exit.
 
Florida is in a slightly different and earlier situation than TB is in right now.

TB has a lousy pipeline and draft capital ahs been expended already for the last 2 seasons.

Sure trading the rights to Howard will help them a bit but the team is older with lots of miles on it and these things tend to catch up to teams, why would TB escape this reality?

Florida is not even earlier, their core forwards are the same age as Tampa's. Yes Hedman is a lot older but Florida doesn't have and never had a Hedman to compare to.

Tampa is in one of the most enviable positions in the league at F and G going forward. If they're healthier going into the next playoffs they would be adding Bjorkstrand, who was injured this time. And if Bob can win cups in his late 30s than Vasi can win cups at 30.

They really need one big upgrade and that is to find a better partner for Hedman, who isn't capable of carrying a top pairing by himself in the playoffs anymore. McDonagh is still miles better than most top 4 shutdown D around the league so that is less of a near term issue. Yeah he's old but he's still miles better than like Brandon Carlo or idk... Mikkola - Kulikov. They need to make some D changes but looking at the D groups for other playoff clubs like Toronto, Florida, etc.. it's not necessarily going to cost them the very best assets, just the right moves. Though if it is as simple as moving Conor Geekie and Isaac Howard for a good cost-effective top 4 RD, then they are in position to do that.*

I'm not sure Tampa will be able to put the winning formula together again, but if they don't it won't be because they are too old or lack the championship core pieces.

* Tampa got Geekie and Moser for Sergachev, it strikes me that reversing that sort of trade, this time for an RD with lower upside, but steadier and with a more modest contract, would be one way to do it.
 
I disagree as many of the core players won't repeat what they did this year IMO.

Or maybe they do the Boston thing and over perform for one more year but how many players keep their production up at 26,27,28, ect...?

It's a % thing and aging always wins out.

To me the biggest problem is on the back end, who replaces Hedman if he is out or even McDonagh as last season was the first time in a while that he didn't miss any games.

It's a cumulative problem waiting to happen just watch.
Every player keeps their production up at 26,27,28... Those are prime years. Peak performance is 27-29 years old in the NHL.
 
Florida is not even earlier, their core forwards are the same age as Tampa's. Yes Hedman is a lot older but Florida doesn't have and never had a Hedman to compare to.
Not really as Florida has Lundell and none of their core forwards are even 30 yet.

Florida does have similar issues that TB has with draft capital and prospects but they are younger on the back end as well and better situated for the near term but their time will come as well.


Tampa is in one of the most enviable positions in the league at F and G going forward. If they're healthier going into the next playoffs they would be adding Bjorkstrand, who was injured this time. And if Bob can win cups in his late 30s than Vasi can win cups at 30.
Not really with their lack of upcoming players and that back end, who can step in for Hedman if he continues to slow down or misses time?


They really need one big upgrade and that is to find a better partner for Hedman, who isn't capable of carrying a top pairing by himself in the playoffs anymore. McDonagh is still miles better than most top 4 shutdown D around the league so that is less of a near term issue. Yeah he's old but he's still miles better than like Brandon Carlo or idk... Mikkola - Kulikov. They need to make some D changes but looking at the D groups for other playoff clubs like Toronto, Florida, etc.. it's not necessarily going to cost them the very best assets, just the right moves. Though if it is as simple as moving Conor Geekie and Isaac Howard for a good cost-effective top 4 RD, then they are in position to do that.
That's the problem though the lack of assets and I'm not a fan of Geekie don't know if he will develope into what some hoped..

I'm not sure Tampa will be able to put the winning formula together again, but if they don't it won't be because they are too old or lack the championship core pieces.
Like I said it's the whole picture, lack of depth and assets along with an aging core their window has closed.
 
Every player keeps their production up at 26,27,28... Those are prime years. Peak performance is 27-29 years old in the NHL.
Not historically it isn't and scoring has gone up using adjusted stats for last couple of years is better than raw stats.

How many TB core players will reach the same level next year as this year?

Maybe 1 or 2 but 4 to 5 will probably decline.
 
Many Tampa Bay Lightning fan's reasons for first round playoff losses in 2023, 2024, and 2025:

  • Blame injuries-Check
  • Blame the play of the third and fourth lines-Check
  • Blame the play of the third defense pairing-Check
  • Blame the officiating-Check
  • Blame the Coaching Staff-Check
  • Blame the GM-Check
  • Refuse to acknowledge the better team beat them-Check
  • Blame the lack of play of an aging core who are paid well to produce in the regular AND postseason-NEVER

Until Lightning fans realize the will need to deal at least one of their high-priced fan favorites to improve, they will remain fans of a team that looks at what happened to the Penguins when they failed to improve their depth by not dealing aging fan favorites who still had value and laugh when Lightning management goes "We can top that, hold my PBR".
 
Honestly reading the injuries they might have a few more seasons they could go on a run on.

Bjorkstrand: (too complicated to write)
Cirelli: MCL Sprain Game 1
Glendening: AC Joint separation
Gourde: Broke a finger Game 1
Hagel: Concussion
Hedman: Broke foot Game 4
Kucherov: Suffered an injury in Feb he was managing
Paul: Tear in left wrist

Alot of mileage on this group, and it doesn't get any easier going forward.

That's why I'm looking at their contending window on a year to year basis.

They have been through the ringer, and i think it's going to catch up to Florida this year too.
 
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Not really as Florida has Lundell and none of their core forwards are even 30 yet.

It doesn't matter if Lundell is 23 or 28, he's not expected to massively improve or decline at either age. For the purposes of our discussion about whether the team is cooked in the next few years, it is the same situation as Hagel, Cirelli, Point, etc...

Florida does have similar issues that TB has with draft capital and prospects but they are younger on the back end as well and better situated for the near term but their time will come as well.

Who are their young studs coming up on D?

They don't have any either. They don't even have halfway decent young D. Cernak, Lilleberg, Moser, Perbix, they're all younger than anyone on Florida's D.

Not really with their lack of upcoming players and that back end, who can step in for Hedman if he continues to slow down or misses time?

Who steps in for Forsling if he gets dinged?

Are you actually looking at Florida's D group and telling me they are in a better position there?

There's one reason I might bet on Florida and that is to bet on Bill Zito's ability to find the best free players on the scrap heap.
 
The problem is the lack of assets in the system and most of the guys at their ages are going to be unable to repeat their performances, aging is a real thing.

Their window is closing and they are no longer a serious SC contender it happens.
So they're not really old, still have plenty of guys in their prime, and are still capable of being a contender. Yes, aging is a real thing, but these are professional athletes who are still (mostly anyway) at their peak. Tampa may not have a bunch of assets right now, but they don't have to address major holes yet either. Their window is nearing it's end, but they are still string contenders for another 2-3 years if Brisebois makes good moves to fill in the supporting cast.
 
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Alot of mileage on this group, and it doesn't get any easier going forward.

That's why I'm looking at their contending window on a year to year basis.

They have been through the ringer, and i think it's going to catch up to Florida this year too.

Bjorkstrand, Cirelli, Hagel, a lot of prime age players getting injured the last game of the season or first game of the playoffs. That looks more like bad luck than mileage to me. Though of course they do have guys with a lot more mileage as well, it's just that they also happen to be loaded with prime age players who were injured at the wrong time.
 
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The thing about championship windows, is that they have a tendency to open before you think they will, and especially close before you think they will. It's only hindsight that lets you go, oh yeah, obviously.

In late June of 2014, is anyone predicting the Kings wouldn't win another playoff series for at least the next 11 years? Looking back, the 2014 Kings may have gone on the craziest, most unlikely to be possible run to the Cup that any team has, is, or will ever go on, so it kind of makes sense that they haven't done anything in the playoffs since then. However, nobody would've said the Kings window closed on June 13th, 2014, even though it effectively did.
 
The thing about championship windows, is that they have a tendency to open before you think they will, and especially close before you think they will. It's only hindsight that lets you go, oh yeah, obviously.

In late June of 2014, is anyone predicting the Kings wouldn't win another playoff series for at least the next 11 years? Looking back, the 2014 Kings may have gone on the craziest, most unlikely to be possible run to the Cup that any team has, is, or will ever go on, so it kind of makes sense that they haven't done anything in the playoffs since then. However, nobody would've said the Kings window closed on June 13th, 2014, even though it effectively did.

The lesson from that story should be that it's harder to tell when windows are closed than people think, or perhaps it is that windows are generally more open than people think. The Kings were the sixth seed in the West that year, not some juggernaut. And I think there were more improbable cup wins than that, I don't think that was the craziest year.
 
It doesn't matter if Lundell is 23 or 28, he's not expected to massively improve or decline at either age. For the purposes of our discussion about whether the team is cooked in the next few years, it is the same situation as Hagel, Cirelli, Point, etc...
Florida's core is objectively younger that's my point.
Who are their young studs coming up on D?

They don't have any either. They don't even have halfway decent young D. Cernak, Lilleberg, Moser, Perbix, they're all younger than anyone on Florida's
Again Objectively younger with Jones and company and they have the same draft capital.pipeline problem as TB
Who steps in for Forsling if he gets dinged?

Are you actually looking at Florida's D group and telling me they are in a better position there?
Yes they are agewise.


There's one reason I might bet on Florida and that is to bet on Bill Zito's ability to find the best free players on the scrap heap.
Okay.
 
So they're not really old, still have plenty of guys in their prime, and are still capable of being a contender. Yes, aging is a real thing, but these are professional athletes who are still (mostly anyway) at their peak. Tampa may not have a bunch of assets right now, but they don't have to address major holes yet either. Their window is nearing it's end, but they are still string contenders for another 2-3 years if Brisebois makes good moves to fill in the supporting cast.
So they really aren't that old?

Checks that they are 5 the oldest team in the NHL and their core is old.

The point of the lack of draft capital and prospects is that they won't be able to address any holes that will appear.
 
So they really aren't that old?

Checks that they are 5 the oldest team in the NHL and their core is old.

The point of the lack of draft capital and prospects is that they won't be able to address any holes that will appear.
They have two members of their core over the age of 31. They have quite a.few still younger than 30 or just at 30. Most of their key guys are still very much in thelr primes, so no, they aren't old. They have used many of thelr assets to acquire key pieces, and yes, they no longer have a great pipeline. Eventually, that will be a factor, but year after year, Brisebois still makes moves, either in the offseason or at the tdl, to usually improve the team. They still have most of the pieces required to be a strong contender, and most are not considered "really old" or "aging". So, as I said, provided Brisebois addresses the depth changes that need to be made this summer, Tampa is still well positioned to contend for another couple of years.
 
They have two members of their core over the age of 31. They have quite a.few still younger than 30 or just at 30. Most of their key guys are still very much in thelr primes, so no, they aren't old. They have used many of thelr assets to acquire key pieces, and yes, they no longer have a great pipeline. Eventually, that will be a factor, but year after year, Brisebois still makes moves, either in the offseason or at the tdl, to usually improve the team. They still have most of the pieces required to be a strong contender, and most are not considered "really old" or "aging". So, as I said, provided Brisebois addresses the depth changes that need to be made this summer, Tampa is still well positioned to contend for another couple of years.
You are skipping the Dmen but let's watch TB decline in the next 2 years as it won't be surprising.
 
You are skipping the Dmen but let's watch TB decline in the next 2 years as it won't be surprising.
No, I'm not skipping the dmen, as Hedman and McD are their only key pieces that any rational observer would consider "old" or "aging". Tampa should also be able to at least partially address that area over the course of this summer and next, and via trade if needed. The point remains, that they aren't some old core full of mid 30's guys, as with the exception of Hedman and now with McD back, Tampa has kept their roster relatively young by not signing certain vets to.pricier contracts once they ha e hit or approaching their mid 30's. They are still well positioned for at least two more years of being a real contender, provided they avoid serious injuries and make the smaller moves needed to address some of the bottom 6 and defensive depth.
 
No, I'm not skipping the dmen, as Hedman and McD are their only key pieces that any rational observer would consider "old" or "aging". Tampa should also be able to at least partially address that area over the course of this summer and next, and via trade if needed. The point remains, that they aren't some old core full of mid 30's guys, as with the exception of Hedman and now with McD back, Tampa has kept their roster relatively young by not signing certain vets to.pricier contracts once they ha e hit or approaching their mid 30's. They are still well positioned for at least two more years of being a real contender, provided they avoid serious injuries and make the smaller moves needed to address some of the bottom 6 and defensive depth.
And Vassy returns to form. Either his struggles are a sign of his game falling off or the team’s overall performance declining, but either way he needs to be better.
 

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