Is Rob Blake the Problem?

[KINGS17]

Here's the problem...Blake has gutted the roster and received back lottery tickets in exchange. There is now literally no above average talent on the team in the 21-29 year range. So even if every one of those lottery tickets turns out to be a winner the Kings won't be competitive for another 5 years. And that is the best case outcome. Pitchforks and torches will be parading along Figueroa Blvd long before then...

I am fine with being a contender again in 5-7 years. At least they have turned the ship around and put it on a better course. Who cares if Blake gutted the roster. The roster has been next to DFL for two seasons, and hasn't had a significant amount of above average talent in the age range you mention for quite some time.

 

[KINGS17]

This is the weirdest take I've ever seen.

Kings are getting very good players and youth in drafts and possibly in this upcoming draft. What you seem to have forgotten is that the Kings when they had solid pieces they stopped rebuilding and traded for a Richards and a Carter.

The way it works is once you have a good foundation, you can afford to trade some picks to get into contention.


Having all these good prospects as well are possible assets in a future trade as well for established NHLers.


What are you even talking about? If the Kings draft well this year and next, they will be sitting very pretty with a bunch of assets.

Kings are not far at all from being competitive in my opinion. And let's say I'm wrong to play devil's advocate in terms of the time line, that doesn't change the fact that Blake has had very good drafts when it's all said and done.


He's moved Clifford, Forbort, toffoli, and Martinez in one off-season.


That shows that there's a plan being enacted.


Be patient. It looks very good right now.

I watched the entire build by Lombardi as many of you did. I am perfectly willing to watch young players go through growing pains if the effort is there, and there is a plan in place. That basic blueprint led to the three most dominant Kings teams we have ever witnessed.

I am willing to let Blake have a go at it.

 

[HeadInjury]

It won't take 5-7 years if done correctly. Some of these young guys will end up being traded, like POS was for Williams, Schenn and Simmonds were for Richards, JJ was for Carter, etc.

Blake trading Forbort tells me he gets it. And I don't hate Forbort, but he isn't part of the solution, so it was time to go.

 

[kovacro]

Here's the problem...Blake has gutted the roster and received back lottery tickets in exchange. There is now literally no above average talent on the team in the 21-29 year range. So even if every one of those lottery tickets turns out to be a winner the Kings won't be competitive for another 5 years. And that is the best case outcome. Pitchforks and torches will be parading along Figueroa Blvd long before then...

Surely not pitchforks and torches.

How do you know Blake is not going to package some of those lottery tickets for young NHL talent to help expedite the rebuild.

 

[tomd]

Surely not pitchforks and torches.

How do you know Blake is not going to package some of those lottery tickets for young NHL talent to help expedite the rebuild.

Late 2nd rounders (which is what the Kings have acquired) rarely bring back young NHL talent. As we've just seen, they are mostly used at the TDL for playoff teams looking to bolster their rosters.

Also, the success rate to pick an NHL player in the 2nd round with picks in the 50-61 range have been about 15% for the 10 years ended 2016 (averaging about 2 players per draft). For picks in the 3rd round or later, the success rate is obviously much lower. Blake has acquired 7 picks over the next two drafts all of which will be 50 or later. So to expect that the Kings will get more than one (or two at the most) NHL caliber players from those picks is being far too optimistic. And the worst part is that now the Kings have no more players on their NHL to trade for future assets.

 

[BringTheReign]

I gotta say, the only thing more inconsistent than the Kings losing this season is the tenor of conversation surrounding Blake on these boards. He did essentially exactly what 95% of us were hoping he would do all season and now everyone is complaining about it.

 

[BigKing]

Late 2nd rounders (which is what the Kings have acquired) rarely bring back young NHL talent. As we've just seen, they are mostly used at the TDL for playoff teams looking to bolster their rosters.

Also, the success rate to pick an NHL player in the 2nd round with picks in the 50-61 range have been about 15% for the 10 years ended 2016 (averaging about 2 players per draft). For picks in the 3rd round or later, the success rate is obviously much lower. Blake has acquired 7 picks over the next two drafts all of which will be 50 or later. So to expect that the Kings will get more than one (or two at the most) NHL caliber players from those picks is being far too optimistic. And the worst part is that now the Kings have no more players on their NHL to trade for future assets.

There is no way that all of the 2nd round picks are used to solely draft prospects: there will be packages.

You have issue with moving proven NHL players and, I get it, you have to have NHL players since even a #1 rated prospect pool guarantees nothing. I'm constantly preaching that the odds are much higher for these kids to not hit their ceilings so I fully understand it. The problem with you not wanting to go this route is that the veterans they had weren't going to pull it off regardless. They don't have all of this cap space if they kept Pearson and Muzzin. How are they adding enough to this roster to make them a contender?

They were in no mans land, basically. Now they have total financial flexibility and promising prospects on top of all of the draft capital. While they don't have any more players on the roster to trade for future assets (which is false), they do have said draft capital and prospects that can be turned in to actual NHL players. They are actually better equipped now to try and be good than they were before trading Muzzin.

Blake just has to navigate Phase II correctly. Icing a shit team on purpose and selling NHL players is easy. This next part of the rebuild is where real savvy needs to be witnessed.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

How do you "gut" a roster that was already second to last

 

[Lt Dan]

How do you "gut" a roster that was already second to last

get rid of anything of value that you won't use going forward

The next step is the 6 million dollar man phase.
This team is barely alive.
We can rebuild it
We have the draft picks
We have the development

We can be better than we were before.
Better
Stronger
Faster

 

[KINGS17]

There is no way that all of the 2nd round picks are used to solely draft prospects: there will be packages.

You have issue with moving proven NHL players and, I get it, you have to have NHL players since even a #1 rated prospect pool guarantees nothing. I'm constantly preaching that the odds are much higher for these kids to not hit their ceilings so I fully understand it. The problem with you not wanting to go this route is that the veterans they had weren't going to pull it off regardless. They don't have all of this cap space if they kept Pearson and Muzzin. How are they adding enough to this roster to make them a contender?

They were in no mans land, basically. Now they have total financial flexibility and promising prospects on top of all of the draft capital. While they don't have any more players on the roster to trade for future assets (which is false), they do have said draft capital and prospects that can be turned in to actual NHL players. They are actually better equipped now to try and be good than they were before trading Muzzin.

Blake just has to navigate Phase II correctly. Icing a shit team on purpose and selling NHL players is easy. This next part of the rebuild is where real savvy needs to be witnessed.

It's also fine to have an expected failure rate with 2nd round picks. That's why you acquire as many of them as possible to strengthen the odds of hitting on one or two of them. I think Blake now has six 2nd round picks over the next two drafts. If he turns those into two solid NHL players, I am fine with it.

I don't think any of us wanted him to hang onto Toffoli and Martinez until they retired from the Kings. What purpose would that have served?

 

[KINGS17]

get rid of anything of value that you won't use going forward

The next step is the 6 million dollar man phase.
This team is barely alive.
We can rebuild it
We have the draft picks
We have the development

We can be better than we were before.
Better
Stronger
Faster

I mean if you're going to spend that kind of money, I would go the extra mile and cost to get that one last bionic part Steve Austin was missing. Then again, it was a family show.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Late 2nd rounders (which is what the Kings have acquired) rarely bring back young NHL talent. As we've just seen, they are mostly used at the TDL for playoff teams looking to bolster their rosters.

Also, the success rate to pick an NHL player in the 2nd round with picks in the 50-61 range have been about 15% for the 10 years ended 2016 (averaging about 2 players per draft). For picks in the 3rd round or later, the success rate is obviously much lower. Blake has acquired 7 picks over the next two drafts all of which will be 50 or later. So to expect that the Kings will get more than one (or two at the most) NHL caliber players from those picks is being far too optimistic. And the worst part is that now the Kings have no more players on their NHL to trade for future assets.

1. the Kings are one of the best teams at placing UDFA and rounds 3+ in the NHL, arguably the best. So expecting them to hit just a couple more is not a big deal. Without top picks, they used their resources to get NHLers; now that they have a ton of picks, you expect them to start missing?

Was curious who finds players later in the draft and beyond (i.e. after the second round)

This table is based on current NHLers, the team represents the original drafting team or signing team of undrafted free agents, detailed lists follow further down:

Team	Undrafted	Rounds 3 to 7+	Total
Anaheim	0	7	7
Arizona	1	4	5
Boston	5	8	13
Buffalo	4	9	13
Calgary	4	10	14
Carolina	1	5	6
Chicago	8	7	15
Colorado	2	3	5
Columbus	5	13	18
Dallas	5	7	12
Detroit	3	8	11
Edmonton	7	7	14
Florida	0	9	9
Los Angeles	7	12	19
Minnesota	1	6	7
Montreal	1	4	5
Nashville	0	9	9
New Jersey	2	7	9
NY Islanders	2	8	10
NY Rangers	4	8	12
Ottawa	0	11	11
Philadelphia	5	6	11
Pittsburgh	5	12	17
St. Louis	1	8	9
San Jose	9	10	19
Tampa Bay	2	8	10
Toronto	5	14	19
Vancouver	3	3	6
Vegas	1	0	1
Washington	2	6	8
Winnipeg	1	7	8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Who found the undrafted free agents around the league on current NHL rosters?

Original signing team:

Anaheim-(0)
Arizona-(1) Ilya Lyubushkin
Boston-(5) Torey Krug, Karson Kuhlman, Colby Cave, Noel Acciari, Frank Vatrano
Buffalo-(4) Lawrence Pilut, Evan Rodriques, Chad Ruhwedel, Tim Schaller
Calgary-(4) David Rittich, Marc Giordano, Alexander Yelesin, Garnet Hathaway
Carolina-(1) Derek Ryan
Chicago-(8) David Kampf, Matthew Highmore, Antti Raanta, Trevor Van Riemsdyk, Artemi Panarin, Dominik Kahun, Jan Rutta, Michal Kempny
Colorado-(2) Pavel Francouz, Andrew Agozzino
Columbus-(5) Matiss Kivlinieks, Dean Kukan, Eric Robinson, Nic Holden, Jonathan Marchessault
Dallas-(5) Justin Dowling, Joel Kiviranta, Brendan Dillon, Jordie Benn, Antoine Rouessel
Detroit-(3) Danny Dekeyser, Luke Glendening, Tomas Nosek
Edmonton-(7) Gaetan Haas, Joakim Nygard, Patrick Russell, Jordan Oesterle, Brad Hunt, Taylor Fedun, Drake Caggiula
Florida-(0)
Los Angeles-(7) Kurtis MacDermid, Sean Walker, Alex Iafallo, Blake Lizotte, Scott Sabourin, Martin Jones, Oscar Fantenberg
Minnesota-(1) Christian Folin
Montreal-(1) Charlie Lindgren
Nashville-(0)
New Jersey-(2) Andy Greene, Kevin Rooney
NYIslanders-(2) Ross Johnston, Michael Haley
NYRangers-(4) Alex Georgiev, Cam Talbot, Mats Zuccarello, Neal Pionk
Ottawa-(0)
Philadelphia-(5) Philippe Myers, Michael Raffl, P.E. Bellemare, Sergei Bobrosky, Cole Bardeau
Pittsburgh-(5) Juuso Riikola, Zach Aston-Reese, Carter Rowney, Conor Sheary, Mark Letestu
St.Louis-(1) Carter Hutton
San Jose-(9) Aaron Dell, Radim Simek, Barclay Goodrow, Melker Karlsson, Joel Kellman, Antti Suomela, Alexander True, Ryan Carpenter, Matt Irwin
Tampa Bay-(2) Yanni Gourde, Tyler Johnson
Toronto-(5) Ilya Mikheyev, Trevor Moore, Par Lindholm, Nikita Zaitsev, Tyler Bozak
Vancouver-(3) Troy Stecher, Chris Tanev, Zack MacEwen
Vegas-(1) Zach Whitecloud
Washington-(2) Jay Beagle, Nate Schmidt
Winnipeg-(1) Brandon Tanev

96 current undrafted NHLers by my count or the equivalent of 4 teams (just over 12% of the league). Some pretty good players on the list.

This is a comparison of current NHLers drafted after the second round, listed by the team who drafted them:

Anaheim-(7) Josh Manson 6th, Sami Vatanen 4th, Chris Wagner 5th, Tim Heed 5th, [Frederik Andersen 3rd], Ondrej Kase 7th, Troy Terry 5th
Arizona-(4) Keith Yandle 4th, Michael Stone 3rd, Louis Domingue 5th, Adin Hill 3rd
Boston-(8) Nate Thompson 6th, Vladimir Sobotka 4th, Brad Marchand 3rd, Matt Grzelcyk 3rd, Matt Benning 6th, Anton Blidh 6th, Danton Heinen 4th, Anders Bjork 5th
Buffalo-(9) Ryan Miller 5th, Andrej Sekera 3rd, Nathan Gerbe 5th, Alex Biega 5th, Paul Byron 6th, Brayden McNabb 3rd, Marcus Foligno 4th, Linus Ulmark 6th, Victor Olofsson 7th
Calgary-(10) Craig Anderson 3rd, Curtis McElhinney 6th, T.J. Brodie 4th, Michael Ferland 5th, Adam Fox 3rd, Laurent Brossoit 6th, Johnny Gaudreau 4th, Brett Kulak 4th, John Gilmour 7th, Andrew Mangiapane 6th
Carolina-(5) Frederik Andersen 7th, Jaccob Slavin 4th, Brett Pesce 3rd, Lucas Wallmark 4th, Warren Foegele 3rd
Chicago-(7) [Craig Anderson 3rd], Niklas Hjarmalsson 4th, Joakim Nordstrom 3rd, Andrew Shaw 5th, Vinny Hinostroza 6th, John Hayden 3rd, Tyler Motte 4th
Colorado-(3) Brad Richardson 5th, Tyson Barrie 3rd, Will Butcher 5th
Columbus-(13) Kris Russell 3rd, Matt Calvert 5th, Cam Atkinson 6th, David Savard 4th, Dalton Prout 6th, Mike Reilly 4th, Joonas Korpisalo 3rd, Josh Anderson 4th, Oliver Bjorkstrand 3rd, Elvis Merzlikins 3rd, Vladislav Gavrikov 6th, Markus Nutivaara 7th, Emil Bemstrom 4th
Dallas-(7) Mike Smith 5th, Colton Sceviour 4th, Jamie Benn 5th, Reilly Smith 3rd, John Klingberg 5th, Esa Lindell 3rd, Nich Paul 4th
Detroit-(8) Valteri Filppula 3rd, Darren Helm 5th, Gustav Nyquist 4th, Nick Jensen 5th, Petr Mzazek 5th, Andreas Atnanasiou 4th, Matthias Janmark-Nylen 3rd, Christopher Ehn 4th
Edmonton-(7) Tobias Rieder 4th, Erik Gustafsson 4th, Jujhar Khaira 3rd, William Lagesson 4th, Caleb Jones 4th, Ethan Bear 5th, John Marino 6th
Florida-(9) Evgeny Dadonov 3rd, Joonas Donskoi 4th, Zach Hymen 5th, Vincent Trochek 3rd, Josh Brown 6th, Mackenzie Weegar 7th, Dennis Malgin 4th, Samuel Montembeault 3rd, Riley Stillman 4th
Los Angeles-(12) Jonathan Quick 3rd, Alec Martinez 4th, Nicolas Deslauriers 3rd, Jordan Weal 3rd, Nick Shore 3rd, Colin Miller 5th, Dominik Kubalik 7th, Nikolay Prokhorkin 4th, Mike Amadio 3rd, Jacob Middleton 7th, Austin Wagner 4th, Matt Roy 7th
Minnesota-(6) Cal Clutterbuck 3rd, Darcy Kuemper 6th, Erik Haula 7th, Tyler Graovac 7th, Nick Seeler 5th, Carson Soucy 5th
Montreal-(4) Jaroslav Halak 9th, Yannick Weber 3rd, Brendan Gallagher 5th, Victor Mete 4th
Nashville-(9) Patrik Hornqvist 7th, Craig Smith 4th, Mattias Ekholm 4th, Gabriel Bourque 5th, Anthony Bitetto 6th, Jimmy Vesey 3rd, Brendan Leipsic 3rd, Juuse Saros 4th, Viktor Arvidsson 4th
New Jersey-(7) Derek Engellund 6th, Adam Henrique 3rd, Blake Coleman 3rd, Alex Kerfoot 5th, Miles Wood 4th, Joey Anderson 3rd, Jesper Bratt 6th
NY Islanders-(8) Frans Nielsen 3rd, Matt Martin 5th, Jared Spurgeon 6th, Anders Nilsson 3rd, Casey Cizikas 4th, Anders Lee 6th, Adam Pelech 3rd, Devon Toews 4th
NY Rangers-(8) Henrik Lundqvist 7th, Carl Hagelin 6th, Dale Weise 4th, Jesper Fast 6th, Pavel Buchnevich 3rd, Anthony Duclair 3rd, Ryan Graves 4th, Igor Shesterkin 4th
Ottawa-(11) Brian Elliott 9th, Zack Smith 3rd, Derek Grant 4th, Mark Borowiecki 5th, Mike Hoffman 5th, Mark Stone 6th, Jean Gabriel Pageau 4th, Ryan Dzingel 7th, Chris Driedger 3rd, Marcus Hogberg 3rd, Drake Batherson 4th
Philadelphia-(6) Patrick Maroon 6th, Zac Rinaldo 6th, Nick Cousins 3rd, Shane Gostisbehere 3rd, Oskar Lindblom 5th, Connor Bunnaman 4th
Pittsburgh-(10) Kris Letang 3rd, Robert Bortuzzo 3rd, Jake Muzzin 5th, Bryan Rust 3rd, Tom Kuhnhackl 4th, Josh Archibald 6th, Oskar Sundqvist 3rd, Matt Murray 3rd, Jake Guentzel 3rd, Sam Lafferty 4th, Dominik Simon 5th Anthony Angello 5th
St. Louis-(8) Roman Polak 6th, Ryan Reaves 5th, Ben Bishop 3rd, Jordan Binnington 3rd, Mackenzie MacEachern 3rd, Colton Parayko 3rd, Sammy Blais 6th, Niko Mikkola 5th
Sharks-(10) Joe Pavelski 7th, Thomas Greiss 3rd, Alex Stalock 4th, Nick Bonino 6th, Justin Braun 7th, Jason Demers 7th, Sean Kuraly 5th, Dylan DeMelo 6th, Joakim Ryan 7th, Kevin Labanc 6th,
Tampa Bay-(8) Alex Killorn 3rd, Mark Barberio 6th, Radko Gudas 3rd, Ondrej Palat 7th, Cedric Paquette 4th, Nikita Gusev 7th, Brayden Point 3rd, Anthony Cirelli 3rd
Toronto-(14) Anton Stralman 7th, James Reimer 4th, Korbinian Holzer 4th, Leo Komarov 6th, Carl Gunnarson 7th, Greg Pateryn 5th, Greg McKegg 3rd, Josh Leivo 3rd, Dominic Tontinato 5th, Andreas Johnsson 7th, Connor Brown 6th, Carter Verhaeghe 3rd, Pierre Engvall 7th, Dmtryo Timashov 5th
Vancouver-(3) Alex Edler 3rd, Ben Hutton 5th, Adam Gaudette 5th
Vegas-(0)
Washington-(6) Mathieu Perreault 6th, Braden Holtby 4th, Cody Eakin 3rd, Philipp Grubauer 4th, Chandler Stephenson 3rd, Conner Carrick 5th
Winnipeg-(7) Ben Chiarot 4th, Adam Lowry 3rd, Connor Hellebuyck 5th, Tucker Poolman 5th, Andrew Copp 4th, Sami Niku 7th, Mason Appleton 6th

234 players current NHLers drafted after the second round or an average of about 8 per team

2. The Kings have 30 total picks in the next two drafts, 11 in the first two rounds. Those are assets up the wazoo to play with. Bonus: They'll actually be trending towards one of the younger teams in the NHL, AND have the most cap space available in the NHL.

3. You're still on your usual rant proferring problems but shooting down anyone with a solution. What would YOU do, since everyone else is always wrong?

Edit: re: #1 it's an interesting by the numbers thread: Who found the talent on Opening NHL Rosters 2019-20?

 

[Chili]

1. the Kings are one of the best teams at placing UDFA and rounds 3+ in the NHL, arguably the best. So expecting them to hit just a couple more is not a big deal. Without top picks, they used their resources to get NHLers; now that they have a ton of picks, you expect them to start missing?



2. The Kings have 30 total picks in the next two drafts, 11 in the first two rounds. Those are assets up the wazoo to play with. Bonus: They'll actually be trending towards one of the younger teams in the NHL, AND have the most cap space available in the NHL.

3. You're still on your usual rant proferring problems but shooting down anyone with a solution. What would YOU do, since everyone else is always wrong?

Edit: re: #1 it's an interesting by the numbers thread: Who found the talent on Opening NHL Rosters 2019-20?

Just so it's clear, the table quoted(undrafted free agents and current NHLers drafted after the second round) is the quantity of players. I added all the names so folks can decide on the quality of those players for themselves.

In post 1 from the linked thread I did include the goals and points from last season, total and broken down by dmen and forwards for players on the opening rosters last fall.

Just my opinion now, the Kings build their teams through the draft as much or more then any other team in the NHL .

 

[Lt Dan]

All of these picks is also a chance to move up and choose some (hopefully ) really elite guys

 

[tomd]

1. the Kings are one of the best teams at placing UDFA and rounds 3+ in the NHL, arguably the best. So expecting them to hit just a couple more is not a big deal. Without top picks, they used their resources to get NHLers; now that they have a ton of picks, you expect them to start missing?



2. The Kings have 30 total picks in the next two drafts, 11 in the first two rounds. Those are assets up the wazoo to play with. Bonus: They'll actually be trending towards one of the younger teams in the NHL, AND have the most cap space available in the NHL.

3. You're still on your usual rant proferring problems but shooting down anyone with a solution. What would YOU do, since everyone else is always wrong?

Edit: re: #1 it's an interesting by the numbers thread: Who found the talent on Opening NHL Rosters 2019-20?

Just an initial point of clarification...my count is that the Kings have 21 picks in the next two drafts, seven (possibly eight) of which are in the first two rounds (source: Capfriendly). Where do you get 30 and 11?

Let me put a more realistic spin on things for you. Yes, the Kings have acquired seven extra picks. All of them, however, are 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders. The 2nd rounders are almost certainly going to be picks in the 50-61 range.

So let's look at history to see how those picks might turn out...from 2001-15 the Kings made 40 total selections in the 2nd round (between 50-61), 3rd round and 4th round. I stopped at 2015 because the players in later drafts are still too young to judge. Of those, six or 15% had careers of any note including:
05 Quick - top goalie
07 Simmonds - top 6F
07 Martinez - top 4D
07 King - 4th liner
09 Deslauriers 4th liner
15 Wagner - 4th liner

I've excluded fringe players like Amadio, Shore, and Weal since they would contribute nothing to a rebuild.

So in 15 years, the Kings got three top players in the rounds that Blake added extra picks. Who is being more realistic here...me for advising caution that these draft picks will turn into more than 1 NHL caliber player or you who is expecting the rebuild to be built on long shot picks in the late 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds?

I'll bet you could look at ANY team over the last 15 years and find the same "hit" rates.

 

[KINGS17]

The Kings can't miss on any of their 1st round picks. Over the last draft and the next two the Kings have the following:

From the 2019 draft:

2019	1	5	Alex Turcotte	United States	C
2019	1	22	Tobias Bjornfot	Sweden	D
2019	2	33	Arthur Kaliyev	United States	RW
2019	2	50	Samuel Fagemo	Sweden	LW

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In the 2020 draft the Kings have:

Their own 1st (Probably at least top 5)

Their own 2nd, and two additional 2nd round picks.


Early indications are they have already gone 4-for-4 on hitting NHL players in the 2019 draft. Still a lot of development work to do with these kids, and the Kings can still screw it up, but right now they all seem to be in the correct place on the development curve.

If they end up going 5-for-8, or more likely 6-for-8 overall in the 2019 and 2020 drafts, it's a good start as it is 25% of an NHL roster.

 

[Lt Dan]

Just an initial point of clarification...my count is that the Kings have 21 picks in the next two drafts, seven (possibly eight) of which are in the first two rounds (source: Capfriendly). Where do you get 30 and 11?

Let me put a more realistic spin on things for you. Yes, the Kings have acquired seven extra picks. All of them, however, are 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders. The 2nd rounders are almost certainly going to be picks in the 50-61 range.

So let's look at history to see how those picks might turn out...from 2001-15 the Kings made 40 total selections in the 2nd round (between 50-61), 3rd round and 4th round. I stopped at 2015 because the players in later drafts are still too young to judge. Of those, six or 15% had careers of any note including:
05 Quick - top goalie
07 Simmonds - top 6F
07 Martinez - top 4D
07 King - 4th liner
09 Deslauriers 4th liner
15 Wagner - 4th liner

I've excluded fringe players like Amadio, Shore, and Weal since they would contribute nothing to a rebuild.

So in 15 years, the Kings got three top players in the rounds that Blake added extra picks. Who is being more realistic here...me for advising caution that these draft picks will turn into more than 1 NHL caliber player or you who is expecting the rebuild to be built on long shot picks in the late 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds?

I'll bet you could look at ANY team over the last 15 years and find the same "hit" rates.

these picks are also a chance to move up in the draft vato.
The Kings could very easily run in to a contract limit problem with all of these picks. It's pretty sfe to assume that moving on up is part of the plan

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

these picks are also a chance to move up in the draft vato.
The Kings could very easily run in to a contract limit problem with all of these picks. It's pretty sfe to assume that moving on up is part of the plan

Not only that, but if they run into a spot where they aren't excited over a player, they can move that pick for a 2021 pick, etc, (speaking at the draft) etc.

Having that many picks, is a good thing, yes you have to it on them, but it gives you so many options.

 

[BigKing]

Just an initial point of clarification...my count is that the Kings have 21 picks in the next two drafts, seven (possibly eight) of which are in the first two rounds (source: Capfriendly). Where do you get 30 and 11?

Let me put a more realistic spin on things for you. Yes, the Kings have acquired seven extra picks. All of them, however, are 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders. The 2nd rounders are almost certainly going to be picks in the 50-61 range.

So let's look at history to see how those picks might turn out...from 2001-15 the Kings made 40 total selections in the 2nd round (between 50-61), 3rd round and 4th round. I stopped at 2015 because the players in later drafts are still too young to judge. Of those, six or 15% had careers of any note including:
05 Quick - top goalie
07 Simmonds - top 6F
07 Martinez - top 4D
07 King - 4th liner
09 Deslauriers 4th liner
15 Wagner - 4th liner

I've excluded fringe players like Amadio, Shore, and Weal since they would contribute nothing to a rebuild.

So in 15 years, the Kings got three top players in the rounds that Blake added extra picks. Who is being more realistic here...me for advising caution that these draft picks will turn into more than 1 NHL caliber player or you who is expecting the rebuild to be built on long shot picks in the late 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds?

I'll bet you could look at ANY team over the last 15 years and find the same "hit" rates.

Dwight King - 2012 WCF MVP. You also forgot Kyle Clifford. Cernak is a 2nd round Top 4.

While not a world beater, Lombardi flipped a 2nd for Brad Richardson who is still an "NHL player".

Dean got Williams for a flawed, young skilled winger and a 2nd round pick.

Bottom line: Only the severely optimistic (God love 'em) think that every 2nd rounder is going to make it. The real thing here is that these picks are assets even before being used: maybe more so. The combo of cap plus a surplus of picks puts Blake in a position to strike on getting NHL players. While Blake isn't as fortunate to be sitting on a Kopitar/Brown/Quick trio, he is getting into a position of future asset wealth and cap space that allows him to make moves to better the NHL roster. If they are fortunate enough to land Laf, then this could all be accelerated further.

*edit*

When doing your 2nd round hit rate, you should use 2007 to start since that accounts for the current scouting staff and not the DT years of "just take the top rated CSB guy". While Clague isn't a lock, he has played NHL games this season and is still projecting as an NHL player. I know that is beyond 2015 but just saying. JAD from 2017 has also seen NHL action. No guarantees but that is already better than some other 2nd round picks.

 

[KINGS17]

these picks are also a chance to move up in the draft vato.
The Kings could very easily run in to a contract limit problem with all of these picks. It's pretty sfe to assume that moving on up is part of the plan

...to a deluxe apartment in the sky!!

 

[tomd]

Dwight King - 2012 WCF MVP. You also forgot Kyle Clifford. Cernak is a 2nd round Top 4.

While not a world beater, Lombardi flipped a 2nd for Brad Richardson who is still an "NHL player".

Dean got Williams for a flawed, young skilled winger and a 2nd round pick.

Bottom line: Only the severely optimistic (God love 'em) think that every 2nd rounder is going to make it. The real thing here is that these picks are assets even before being used: maybe more so. The combo of cap plus a surplus of picks puts Blake in a position to strike on getting NHL players. While Blake isn't as fortunate to be sitting on a Kopitar/Brown/Quick trio, he is getting into a position of future asset wealth and cap space that allows him to make moves to better the NHL roster. If they are fortunate enough to land Laf, then this could all be accelerated further.

*edit*

When doing your 2nd round hit rate, you should use 2007 to start since that accounts for the current scouting staff and not the DT years of "just take the top rated CSB guy". While Clague isn't a lock, he has played NHL games this season and is still projecting as an NHL player. I know that is beyond 2015 but just saying. JAD from 2017 has also seen NHL action. No guarantees but that is already better than some other 2nd round picks.

Clifford was taken 35th while Cernak was taken 43rd. I started at 50 given that is where those 2nd rounders are likely to fall.

And yes, rosters can be upgraded using picks but I've seen nor heard nothing from Blake indicating that he actually wants to start improving the roster now beyond bringing up players from the AHL. That is my biggest problem with Blake...he has given himself no accountability and very few fans seem to be demanding any. But I guarantee that Staples, AEG, sponsors, and season seat holders will be demanding a concrete plan with deliverable dates soon.

As far as the more recent drafts, guys like Clague, JAD, Anderson, and even Kupari are still adjusting to the AHL and I think one needs to be cautious in accessing their futures. Each of them has talent but also flaws which could be fatal at the NHL level. Even Vilardi is a question as to where he'll actually slot in at the NHL level. Bjornfot is the only guy who I'm confident will slot in as a solid 2nd pairing D. On a slightly separate note, Grundstrom has been a disappointment this year.

Lastly, your point about what Lombardi inherited is crucial and the fact that he stepped into Doughty. Blake has nothing comparable to begin a rebuild with. And the cap space is more or less meaningless if no high profile free agents want to come to LA.

 

[Choralone]

Just an initial point of clarification...my count is that the Kings have 21 picks in the next two drafts, seven (possibly eight) of which are in the first two rounds (source: Capfriendly). Where do you get 30 and 11?

Let me put a more realistic spin on things for you. Yes, the Kings have acquired seven extra picks. All of them, however, are 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders. The 2nd rounders are almost certainly going to be picks in the 50-61 range.

So let's look at history to see how those picks might turn out...from 2001-15 the Kings made 40 total selections in the 2nd round (between 50-61), 3rd round and 4th round. I stopped at 2015 because the players in later drafts are still too young to judge. Of those, six or 15% had careers of any note including:
05 Quick - top goalie
07 Simmonds - top 6F
07 Martinez - top 4D
07 King - 4th liner
09 Deslauriers 4th liner
15 Wagner - 4th liner

Dwight King was a 3rd liner if I'm going to nitpick. He even did fill-in work on the top 6.

 

[Lt Dan]

Dwight King was a 3rd liner if I'm going to nitpick. He even did fill-in work on the top 6.

And he is the Kings all time leading scorer in the conference finals

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Just an initial point of clarification...my count is that the Kings have 21 picks in the next two drafts, seven (possibly eight) of which are in the first two rounds (source: Capfriendly). Where do you get 30 and 11?

Let me put a more realistic spin on things for you. Yes, the Kings have acquired seven extra picks. All of them, however, are 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders. The 2nd rounders are almost certainly going to be picks in the 50-61 range.

So let's look at history to see how those picks might turn out...from 2001-15 the Kings made 40 total selections in the 2nd round (between 50-61), 3rd round and 4th round. I stopped at 2015 because the players in later drafts are still too young to judge. Of those, six or 15% had careers of any note including:
05 Quick - top goalie
07 Simmonds - top 6F
07 Martinez - top 4D
07 King - 4th liner
09 Deslauriers 4th liner
15 Wagner - 4th liner

I've excluded fringe players like Amadio, Shore, and Weal since they would contribute nothing to a rebuild.

So in 15 years, the Kings got three top players in the rounds that Blake added extra picks. Who is being more realistic here...me for advising caution that these draft picks will turn into more than 1 NHL caliber player or you who is expecting the rebuild to be built on long shot picks in the late 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds?

I'll bet you could look at ANY team over the last 15 years and find the same "hit" rates.

Let me simplify this for you since three questions was too many and you didn't answer any of them, and ignored the guy linked who actually did the homework showing you wrong--

#3 was "What would you do, since everyone else is always wrong?"

 

[BigKing]

Clifford was taken 35th while Cernak was taken 43rd. I started at 50 given that is where those 2nd rounders are likely to fall.

And yes, rosters can be upgraded using picks but I've seen nor heard nothing from Blake indicating that he actually wants to start improving the roster now beyond bringing up players from the AHL. That is my biggest problem with Blake...he has given himself no accountability and very few fans seem to be demanding any. But I guarantee that Staples, AEG, sponsors, and season seat holders will be demanding a concrete plan with deliverable dates soon.

As far as the more recent drafts, guys like Clague, JAD, Anderson, and even Kupari are still adjusting to the AHL and I think one needs to be cautious in accessing their futures. Each of them has talent but also flaws which could be fatal at the NHL level. Even Vilardi is a question as to where he'll actually slot in at the NHL level. Bjornfot is the only guy who I'm confident will slot in as a solid 2nd pairing D. On a slightly separate note, Grundstrom has been a disappointment this year.

Lastly, your point about what Lombardi inherited is crucial and the fact that he stepped into Doughty. Blake has nothing comparable to begin a rebuild with. And the cap space is more or less meaningless if no high profile free agents want to come to LA.

Got it with the starting at pick #50.

I am very cautious when assessing the future of these players as I'm not one of the guys just penciling everyone in. I do think that Grundstrom is someone that would have to completely blow the doors off to stay up this year as Blake and Co. have zero issue with letting everyone that can marinate in Ontario do so. But he is another guy taken in the 2nd round, while we are here.

Dean "stepped in to" Doughty by tanking. Blake might "step in to" Lafreniere or some other stud by tanking. By selling, he was also able to get the pick that became Bjornfot, the guy you are high on. It takes luck and a tank/sucking does not guarantee anything; however, it has also provided the following:

- Crosby/Malkin
- Kane/Toews
- Doughty. Toss in Schenn since he got Richards.
- Ovie/Backstrom

How many Cups is that over the last ten seasons? All of them except for Boston and St. Louis?

How many big name free agents did Dean sign? What he was able to do with that space was trade for contracts.

I agree that there is no accountability and that is a big issue I have with unbridled Blake optimism since he's basically been given a mulligan for all of his wrong decisions when he first took over and is basically being judged solely on the tank which, I mean, setting out to lose hockey games isn't difficult. As far as the tank goes, however, he is doing it by the book so that is a good thing. Again, the real test comes with building a real roster moving forward. This season was all about another very high draft pick but I think they expect to see improvement next year and Blake will start dealing as they have a better handle on where all of the prospects are at.