Is our defence now dare I say it good?

[zeke]

I'm not criticizing distance from the net data.

I'm criticizing a model where that's 85% of the input data while completely ignoring shooter quality as if it doesn't exist.

Pretty big difference and I've made that crystal clear.

Knowing how close a team shoots from the net has only a limited amount of meaningfulness, since we know different teams and coaches strategize differently in terms of quality vs quantity of shots directed at the net.

Even if you used just shots x shot distance and nothing else you would have a pretty useful metric tbh.

But these models clearly use much more than that.

 

[zeke]

Like Kratos said to his son "Don't be sorry, be better!"

You can keep posting them that doesn't mean there aren't limitations to them and without context they are meaningless.

Ok refuse to read it and then complain when others use something you refuse to even read up on, if you like.

No sweat off my balls.

 

[Zybalto]

Quick thing,

Just going off of xGA and save% last year, it appeared Vancouver was headed for Goals Against disaster this year. I think it was the only nearly positive prediction I made before the season and the reason I had the Canucks out of the playoffs this year.

In looking at all the numbers from when Keefe got hired, here were Vancouver's numbers since then:

Expected goals against: Worst in the NHL
Goals against: 26th worst in the league
Team save%: 12th (Driven by Markstrom)

Seems pretty apparent that letting the guy go that has your goaltending above average and replacing him with one of the worst starters after you gave up that many goals is gonna be a disaster. Average backup Demko isnt Markstrom just because he played well in 4 playoff games.

After Canucks first 6 games:

Expected Goals against: Last in the NHL
Goals Against: Last in the NHL

Ya think.

Leafs since then have been much better defensively with much worse goaltending but I hope Andersen keeps bouncing back and we get 2018 Andersen. That Leafs team will be insane.

 

[ULF_55]

Montreal is a lot better than people think IMO even if I hate to admit it

If by people you mean many here then yes. But they could be a top 5 team and they'd still get trashed here.

I don't think Montreal is a top 5 team, maybe a top 10, maybe better than average?

I think Leafs lucked out with the Scotia North Division.

 

[Zybalto]

Just a reminder as to what the team qualities were last year.

TOR #13 pts%, #8 rpts%, #12 rgpts%, #11 xgf% 5v5, #8 xgf% All, #21 sv%
MTL #24 pts%, #26 rpts%, #26 rgpts%, #3 xgf% 5v5, #11 xgf% All, #25 sv%
CGY #19 pts%, #20 rpts%, #21 rgpts%, #15 xgf% 5v5, #16 xgf% All, #13 sv%
EDM #12 pts%, #13 rpts%, #8 rgpts%, #21xgf% 5v5, #22 xgf% All, #14 sv%
VAN #17 pts%, #17 rpts%, #20 rgpts%, #22 xgf% 5v5, #24 xgf% All, #11 sv%
WPG #20 pts%, #16 rpts%, #15 rgpts%, #31 xgf% 5v5, #28 xgf% All, #5 sv%
OTT #30 pts%, #30 rpts%, #30 rgpts%, #20 xgf% 5v5, #23xgf% All, #19 sv%

All in all I don't really get why people like the flames so much.

I like their goaltending this year and think a couple guys will bounce back.

 

[zeke]

Quick thing,

Just going off of xGA and save% last year, it appeared Vancouver was headed for Goals Against disaster this year. I think it was the only nearly positive prediction I made before the season and the reason I had the Canucks out of the playoffs this year.

In looking at all the numbers from when Keefe got hired, here were Vancouver's numbers since then:

Expected goals against: Worst in the NHL
Goals against: 26th worst in the league
Team save%: 12th (Driven by Markstrom)

Seems pretty apparent that letting the guy go that has your goaltending above average and replacing him with one of the worst starters after you gave up that many goals is gonna be a disaster. Average backup Demko isnt Markstrom just because he played well in 4 playoff games.

After Canucks first 6 games:

Expected Goals against: Last in the NHL
Goals Against: Last in the NHL

Ya think.

Leafs since then have been much better defensively with much worse goaltending but I hope Andersen keeps bouncing back and we get 2018 Andersen. That Leafs team will be insane.

Habs apparent improvement this year not a shock either given that they were a very good xgf team already, too.

 

[zeke]

I like their goaltending this year and think a couple guys will bounce back.

But you can see there that their goalies weren't bad last year either.

 

[Zybalto]

Just a reminder as to what the team qualities were last year.

TOR #13 pts%, #8 rpts%, #12 rgpts%, #11 xgf% 5v5, #8 xgf% All, #21 sv%
MTL #24 pts%, #26 rpts%, #26 rgpts%, #3 xgf% 5v5, #11 xgf% All, #25 sv%
CGY #19 pts%, #20 rpts%, #21 rgpts%, #15 xgf% 5v5, #16 xgf% All, #13 sv%
EDM #12 pts%, #13 rpts%, #8 rgpts%, #21xgf% 5v5, #22 xgf% All, #14 sv%
VAN #17 pts%, #17 rpts%, #20 rgpts%, #22 xgf% 5v5, #24 xgf% All, #11 sv%
WPG #20 pts%, #16 rpts%, #15 rgpts%, #31 xgf% 5v5, #28 xgf% All, #5 sv%
OTT #30 pts%, #30 rpts%, #30 rgpts%, #20 xgf% 5v5, #23xgf% All, #19 sv%

All in all I don't really get why people like the flames so much.

Montreal looks really good if they can sustain good goalkeeping this year. They had the same issues we did last year without the scoring.

 

[PromisedLand]

So do we group them vs. all the games every team has played in the year? How do we define high event? Have you compared the Leafs events vs all others to gauge high, medium and low?

We can't just use the results, as you said, those are random and we disagree on the baseline reasons which led to them.

So where do we go from here?

Ideally categorize them. It is not a secret how Trotz and Torts' teams play and now Julien has also adopted that strategy - as an example. Then isolate the games for back to backs; roster strength etc... as you can see the more accurate you try to get the more observations you are going to have to drop. Also, looking at a big sample especially in hockey also depends on the roster make up in a given season, coach in the given season not only for your own team but also others.

where do we go from here?
First, be absolutely transparent of the limitation of the data/model

Second, once limitation is stated how to better address it

Third, in the playoff series where tendencies are well known going into game 3 at the latest; should the data be treated diffrently than the regular season?

Fourth, and this is most important do not "force" data down people's throat without acknowledging its limitation; sitting on the high horse calling everyone else dumb; meanwhile; having no background in any mathematical/statistical field.

 

[Gallagbi]

If by people you mean many here then yes. But they could be a top 5 team and they'd still get trashed here.

I don't think Montreal is a top 5 team, maybe a top 10, maybe better than average?

I think Leafs lucked out with the Scotia North Division.

I don't mean here, but I do agree our division is a lot weaker than we've faced on the past

 

[zeke]

Montreal looks really good if they can sustain good goalkeeping this year. They had the same issues we did last year without the scoring.

Their special teams were crap last year too.

 

[Zybalto]

But you can see there that their goalies weren't bad last year either.

I just think Markstrom has another good year or two in him and will flourish when hes not getting pounded with open slot chances night after night.

 

[IPS]

Brodie is probably the most solid defenceman ive seen on the leafs in years. Bogosian, Muzz and Holl also are looking very good.

I wasn't even a big fan of the Brodie signing but he's super steady. He does get pushed around a bit out there but he's incredibly good with his stick and is always positionally sound.

 

[zeke]

I just think Markstrom has another good year or two in him and will flourish when hes not getting pounded with open slot chances night after night.

Goalies are tough to tell but remember that last year was literally the first time in his career that markstrom was anything more than an average to below average starter.

 

[ULF_55]

Just a reminder as to what the team qualities were last year.

TOR #13 pts%, #8 rpts%, #12 rgpts%, #11 xgf% 5v5, #8 xgf% All, #21 sv%
MTL #24 pts%, #26 rpts%, #26 rgpts%, #3 xgf% 5v5, #11 xgf% All, #25 sv%
CGY #19 pts%, #20 rpts%, #21 rgpts%, #15 xgf% 5v5, #16 xgf% All, #13 sv%
EDM #12 pts%, #13 rpts%, #8 rgpts%, #21xgf% 5v5, #22 xgf% All, #14 sv%
VAN #17 pts%, #17 rpts%, #20 rgpts%, #22 xgf% 5v5, #24 xgf% All, #11 sv%
WPG #20 pts%, #16 rpts%, #15 rgpts%, #31 xgf% 5v5, #28 xgf% All, #5 sv%
OTT #30 pts%, #30 rpts%, #30 rgpts%, #20 xgf% 5v5, #23xgf% All, #19 sv%

All in all I don't really get why people like the flames so much.

I have no idea about the Flames, no one does it is another year, and in the NHL you can win the Cup one year and miss the playoffs the next.

And in years with multiple changes over the off-season the previous year's stats lose value.

And in years when you don't even have a real season then how do you compare stats against 30 teams from one year to stats against 6 teams the next?

I'm treating this year as entertainment, but not really the NHL.

 

[PromisedLand]

Ok refuse to read it and then complain when others use something you refuse to even read up on, if you like.

No sweat off my balls.

do one thing. the link you posted

step 1:
go to the link

step 2:
contrl + F (together on your computer)

Step 3:
type the following words "Limitation"

Step 4:
find that word

Step 5
keep posting that link

Step 6
People will keep ignoring it

Step 7
you will keep claiming that they are better without even attempting to explain it in simple language or admit you have no mathematical or statistical background to explain it in simple language

Step 8
People will again keep ignoring it

Step 9
you will feel good about yourself because you think you showed everyone

Step 10
people who deny the BS will feel good about themselves because they know you didn't show them anything

Final step
everyone is happy


Cheers!

 

[HellasLEAF]

He's also playing toughest matchups with new playing partner. And I'm not sure what that statistic but he has actually looked very good to me. He has been skating really well and has been physical and sharp. Not perfect, room to improve but I would say personally I am surprised at that criticism as he has been imo a positive part of the start of the season this year.

 

[zeke]

do one thing. the link you posted

step 1:
go to the link

step 2:
contrl + F (together on your computer)

Step 3:
type the following words "Limitation"

Step 4:
find that word

Step 5
keep posting that link

Step 6
People will keep ignoring it

Step 7
you will keep claiming that they are better without even attempting to explain it in simple language or admit you have no mathematical or statistical background to explain it in simple language

Step 8
People will again keep ignoring it

Step 9
you will feel good about yourself because you think you showed everyone

Step 10
people who deny the BS will feel good about themselves because they know you didn't show them anything

Final step
everyone is happy


Cheers!

I'm good.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I think they've been good enough defensively, but can get a lot better if Rielly rebounds and if someone can replace Bogosian. Also guys like Engvall/Anderson/Boyd playing in the bottom 6 would be extremely helpful

 

[Zybalto]

Goalies are tough to tell but remember that last year was literally the first time in his career that markstrom was anything more than an average to below average starter.

Hey, first time in his prime he's not playing for the Canucks too.

So far, 3 games played:

2-0-1
.935 save %.

Who knows though. So early and these guys really are voodoo......

 

[Gallagbi]

Ideally categorize them. It is not a secret how Trotz and Torts' teams play and now Julien has also adopted that strategy - as an example. Then isolate the games for back to backs; roster strength etc... as you can see the more accurate you try to get the more observations you are going to have to drop. Also, looking at a big sample especially in hockey also depends on the roster make up in a given season, coach in the given season not only for your own team but also others.

where do we go from here?
First, be absolutely transparent of the limitation of the data/model

Second, once limitation is stated how to better address it

Third, in the playoff series where tendencies are well known going into game 3 at the latest; should the data be treated diffrently than the regular season?

Fourth, and this is most important do not "force" data down people's throat without acknowledging its limitation; sitting on the high horse calling everyone else dumb; meanwhile; having no background in any mathematical/statistical field.

Gotcha, so are you doing that when you posts your opinion? Are you adding the necessary caveats?

 

[PromisedLand]

Gotcha, so are you doing that when you posts your opinion? Are you adding the necessary caveats?

your claim it seems is that use what we have because there are no alternatives

my claim is that using for the sake of using because the lack of alternative is not ideal if the thing that is being used is not meaningful.

 

[Gallagbi]

your claim it seems is that use what we have because there are no alternatives

my claim is that using for the sake of using because the lack of alternative is not ideal if the thing that is being used is not meaningful.

My claim is to use the routes available and understand each limitation as best you can.

That means use your eyes and understand where it's coming from. Use the numbers, as many as you can, to get as comprehensive picture as you can.

Your argument, from what's posted here is that the limitations make the stats unusable, which also makes your opinion useless (because of its own unstated limitation), but you continue to post your opinion while harping on the others who use it along with data. Seems like a double standard to me.

For the most part the methodologies are stated and we should all be able to gauge the limitations of the "advanced stats". If were randomly dismissing because something isn't complete, there's really no point in posting anything

 

[Burnie97]

Montreal looks really good if they can sustain good goalkeeping this year. They had the same issues we did last year without the scoring.

They're clearly improved...after 20 games then we will really know forsure.

I think some guys on the Leafs are underperforming still... a few of the depth guys and Matty although he's been actually pretty good... the goals aren't coming yet and I think that will change soon.

Petry with 7 points... as if that'll hold up all season... same with toffoli 4 goals... no way. Some of their guys so far have been way better than normal and I don't think its sustainable.

I'll be more convinced if they can beat Calgary and the Leafs in the season series.

I thought Vancouver was better and had them ranked higher but with their goalie gone from last year and seeing their underlying numbers... it isn't looking too good right now.

Looking more like

Leafs
Calgary
Habs

Winnipeg
Edmonton

Vancouver

Ottawa


But still a long way to go

I got off track... this is a defence thread my bad

 

[Menzinger]

I never understood the huge negativity around Holl, even last year. Either way, Im glad people are finally starting to like him.

We finally don't have massive anchors on the defense. No Zaitsevs or Cecis playing way too much with zero impact at either end of the ice.

I think part of it f how he joined the team- he was a late boomer and was disliked by Babcock, which has some folks taking a "he has to prove it" mentality still with him. Plus his playing style isn't really "sexy" ie doesn't really lead to many highlight reel plays (not that he needs to).

But he's been comfortably a top 4 level impact guy since he's become a steady roster player. Looks even better this season