Is mcdavid too good not to win a cup?

[Avs2022]

If they don’t win by next year he should bounce as a UFA.

Straight to Colorado.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Your last sentence shows you’re either troll bating or are 14 years old and I have no desire to speak to either of those people.

EDM doesn’t need their leading scorer…. Okayyyy guy.

Yet you responded.

 

[Coffey]

Straight to Colorado.

 

[Sergei Bure]

Nobody is too good not to win a cup, you need the right pieces and great coaching. There was a lot of great players that retired without winning the Stanley Cup, like Bure, LaFontaine, Lindros, Roenick... because they were never in the perfect team situation, either it was the system, old age of teammates, injuries, running into a juggernaut of a opponent etc... Even Gretzky couldn't win with the Kings, and he was at his peak still when he went to LA...

 

[daver]

Correlation does not imply causation. You’re implying that McDavid’s lower PPG is somehow the reason Oilers look better than ever,Edmonton’s depth scoring and goaltending finally showing up in the first two rounds have nothing to do with McDavid’s lower ppg. and I don’t understand the reasoning behind that.

What it really means is that McDavid is playing worse than usual while his teammates are pulling their weight. Crosby had this benefit for all three of his cup wins, McDavid so far had this for one round.

Why couldn't it mean that McDavid, and the Oilers, are playing a better all around game; one where they don't need be so aggressive offensively which tends to lead to shooutouts and mixed results? In other words, a well established winning brand of hockey. They separated McDavid and Draisaitl and they had their two best games of the playoffs with McDavid contributing one point.

Your argument is that the Oilers are pacing towards their best playoff showing despite McDavid not playing as well as before. This sounds suspiciously like the argument against Crosby in 2016; that the Pens won despite Crosby not playing close to his usual level.

 

[daver]

McDavid's PPG in the Oilers 8 wins so far is 1.38 and they are positioned as good as they ever have after the 2nd round in his career.

Get ready for some circluar logic.

Lol come on. He's at 1.545 and his career playoff ppg is at 1.595

He's 0.05 behind his average. Stop the presses!!

Here is the original post.

 

[Schennanigans]

No such thing.

 

[daver]

Let’s look at their finals stats, since the only reason McDavid doesn’t have a cup is because he lost in the finals last year.

Paraphrasing Grate n Colorful’s post:

Finals stats

Crosby
20pts 25gp +3
Scoreless in 12 of 25
5v5
405:15toi 16:12toi/g
12 pts (1.78 p/60)
14gf (2.07 gf/60) 12ga (1.78 ga/60) +0.29/60
AllStrenght
15tk 24gv

McDavid
11pts 7gp +5
Scoreless in 3 of 7
5v5
110:36toi 15:48toi/g
6 pts (3.25 p/60)
7gf (3.80 gf/60) 2ga (1.08 ga/60) +2.72/60
AllStrenght
10tk 8gv

What “IT” factor does Crosby add when McDavid had been better defensively and offensively in the finals?. Only 2 goals allowed in 110 minutes of 5v5 play for McDavid in the finals. 1.08ga/60 is clearly superior to Crosby’s 1.78ga/60. Lines with McDavid have produced almost at a double clip in the finals at 5v5 than lines with Crosby in the finals, while allowing close to 2/3 the goals on average. What did Crosby bring to the plate apart from offense more so than McDavid that helped his team win?. 2 goal against all series is elite defense, and he also accumulated points without Draisaitl.

McDavid's 2024 SCF was similar to Crosby's 2008 SCF. A very good effort but not good enough to win. Maybe they both win if their superstar teammate wasn't playing injured and could have contributed more but that is doubtful moreso for Crosby as the 2008 Wings were really the only true juggernaught of the Cap era.

Also, maybe the Oilers win if McDavid has more than one point through the first 8 periods of the SCF which left the Oilers in a hole that 99 times out of hundred, you can't get out of. And I am sure his on-ice GA was infleunced by the fact the Cats were in the driver's seat and were protecting their lead in games and in the series.

Crosby's SCF in 2017 was his best showing. His 2016 playoffs and SCF has been beaten to death, and his point total in 2009 wasn't reflective of his contribution to the Pens win; also beaten to death.

 

[daver]

Crosby is obviously the best playoff preformer of his generation, but I can’t help but feel like his team’s goaltending and depth scoring was incredibly consistent during his cup wins. Maybe that has been the reason between their difference in silverware.

You can feel like that but it doesn't make it true.

The 2009 Pens won with a notable lack of depth scoring and average goaltending. I challenge you to find a Cup winner in NHL history that had such a droppoff in production after the top two players, ones that were not feeding off of each other like Draisaitl/McDavid. MAF was not any better statistically than Skinner in 2009, and was notably well below average in the Caps series, one that was more of an offensive shooutout than normal for the Pens.

And guess what happened when the Pens played more of a run and gun style like the Oilers against Washington? Crosby had arugably the best individual playoff series of the Cap era with 8 goals and 13 points.

The irony is that, IMO, McDavid's best playoff series was last years WCF but his series PPG is only the 5th or 6th best in the past 6 seasons.

 

[RevengeOfTheDrai]

and his point total in 2009 wasn't reflective of his contribution to the Pens win;

In a sense that his contribution in the previous three rounds gets overlooked?. Yes. He was the Conn Smythe favorite before the finals. His actual finals performance may have been better than his point totals, but it left far more to be desired. Historically, no points for 1C in games 5,6,7 with his team still winning is unheard of.

MAF was not any better statistically than Skinner in 2009, and was notably well below average in the Caps series

The consistency matters here. MAF may lose a game conceding 6, which brings his stats way down, but then will deliver multiple good preformances that brings his stats back up. Game five of the 09 SCF is an example, where the Pens conceded five, but then they won all four games in the series with MAF holding the wings to 2 goals or under. Assuming the same SV%, I’ll take the goalie who has an absolute horrible game, then plays decently for three in a row over someone who is consistently below par.

And guess what happened when the Pens played more of a run and gun style like the Oilers against Washington? Crosby had arugably the best indivudual playoff series of the Cap era with 8 goals and 13 points.

And the Pens won the series. Maybe they should have utilized that approach to cover up MAF’s bad preformance(s) after 2009 and pre 2016. We don’t know if that play-style had that drastic of an effect on their defense in the series, since they were up against Prime Ovechkin and the Caps, who were an offensive juggernaut. It was going to seven either way.

 

[daver]

In a sense that his contribution in the previous three rounds gets overlooked?. Yes. He was the Conn Smythe favorite before the finals. His actual finals performance may have been better than his point totals, but it left far more to be desired.

What more needs to be desired? His team won.

Would he have been worthy of critique if the Pens lost that series? Yes.

Do the Pens even get to the SCF if they replace Crosby with any other player given his performance through 3 rounds was the best since Wayne/Mario? No.

Is McDavid worthy of critique for his SCF performance? Yes.

Do the Oilers even get to the WCF last year if not for Bouchard and Draisaitl and the Canucks going with a 3rd string goalie? No.

 

[daver]

The consistency matters here. MAF may lose a game conceding 6, which brings his stats way down, but then will deliver multiple good preformances that brings his stats back up. Game five of the 09 SCF is an example, where the Pens conceded five, but then they won all four games in the series with MAF holding the wings to 2 goals or under. Assuming the same SV%, I’ll take the goalie who has an absolute horrible game, then plays decently for three in a row over someone who is consistently below par.

So now it's down to individual games where MAF rose to the occasion where Skinner has not.

So how about Game 7 of the SCF? Is that on Skinner or McDavid?

 

[daver]

And the Pens won the series. Maybe they should have utilized that approach to cover up MAF’s bad preformance(s) after 2009 and pre 2016. We don’t know if that play-style had that drastic of an effect on their defense in the series, since they were up against Prime Ovechkin and the Caps, who were an offensive juggernaut. It was going to seven either way.

It only went 7 due to MAF being outgoalied. The Pens were the better team which was ultimately shown in Game 7.

 

[RevengeOfTheDrai]

So how about Game 7 of the SCF? Is that on Skinner or McDavid?

Skinner let in a muffin game winner, but that was on McDavid or rather the whole team in general. Notice how both 97 and 87 game 7 preformances are identical, one just came away with a cup and no criticism. Number 1C going pointless for games 5,6,7 and still winning is pretty unheard of.

It only went 7 due to MAF being outgoalied. The Pens were the better team which was ultimately shown in Game 7.

I’m not trying to take away anything from Crosby, but those caps were 19th in goals against and weren’t known for their defense. He had the best series of his career that could be compared to McDavid’s Dallas series when factoring in quality of defense. It’s a common theme, both went off when they were required to step up, and needed outside help in some series such as Vancouver and Detroit. Also, I’d say MAF and Varlomov were about equally as bad.

 

[daver]

Skinner let in a muffin game winner, but that was on McDavid or rather the whole team in general. Notice how both 97 and 87 game 7 preformances are identical, one just came away with a cup and no criticism. Number 1C going pointless for games 5,6,7 and still winning is pretty unheard of.

I have already said their respective losing SCF performances were similar. What wasn't similar was Crosby's performance leading up to the SCF in 2009 vs. McDavid's in 2024.

It is questionable that McDavid takes the 2009 Pens to the SCF so an in-depth look at those SCF performances is moot.

 

[daver]

I’m not trying to take away anything from Crosby, but those caps were 19th in goals against and weren’t known for their defense. He had the best series of his career that could be compared to McDavid’s Dallas series when factoring in quality of defense. It’s a common theme, both went off when they were required to step up, and needed outside help in some series such as Vancouver and Detroit. Also, I’d say MAF and Varlomov were about equally as bad.

I already agreed that the Caps series was more like majority of the Oilers' playoff series that saw gaudy point totals. That's the whole point that you seem to be missing.

It's not all about "McDavid put up more points than Crosby so he is better, it's just that the rest of the team sucked". Crosby stepped up when needed in most of his series vs. going all out offense that descibes most of the Oilers series. McDavid's WCF last year was more like Crosby's series, and he notably did it on a line separate from Draisaitl. Crosby did that throughout his whole playoff career; he was separated from Malkin and produced at an era best playoff PPG.

In 2009, Crosby scored the first goal of the game 6 times, an NHL record, before the SCF. He was positioning his team to not have to play catch up.

 

[daver]

Also, I’d say MAF and Varlomov were about equally as bad.

So it got to Game 7 because Varly was about equally as bad?

I'll give you a chance to delete this part after looking at their respective Sv%s for Games 1 to 6.

2009 NHL Eastern Conference Semi-Finals: PIT vs. WSH | Hockey-Reference.com

You seem to be an honest poster but this is a bad narrative.

After the 2nd round in 2009, out of the 10 goalies with 7 or more starts, MAF was 9th in sv% and 8th in GAA.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Why couldn't it mean that McDavid, and the Oilers, are playing a better all around game; one where they don't need be so aggressive offensively which tends to lead to shooutouts and mixed results? In other words, a well established winning brand of hockey. They separated McDavid and Draisaitl and they had their two best games of the playoffs with McDavid contributing one point.

Your argument is that the Oilers are pacing towards their best playoff showing despite McDavid not playing as well as before. This sounds suspiciously like the argument against Crosby in 2016; that the Pens won despite Crosby not playing close to his usual level.

McDavid is playing no matter or worse defensively than he ever has.

You just have an agenda that no one is buying.

McDavid is also a whopping 0.05 before his career PPG, which is still WAY higher than Crosbys.

You have no leg to stand on here.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Daver out here still fighting the losing battle I respect it

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Here is the original post.

"PPG in the Oilers 8 wins" is pure and simple heavy cherry picking, and entirely pointless.

 

[daver]

"PPG in the Oilers 8 wins" is pure and simple heavy cherry picking, and entirely pointless.

So much is made about him not winning because his team is as good as any of the Pens teams. How is the strength of one's team supposed to ne measured if not by their wins?

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

So much is made about him not winning because his team is as good as any of the Pens teams. How is the strength of one's team supposed to ne measured if not by their wins?

This is so reductive, it's mindboggling.

If McDavid gets more points when they lose, it might be because he elevates his play when he knows his teammates are underperforming (first game vs LA) and inversely, might play more conservative when his teammates play well. It's a TEAM sport. Notwithstanding the fact that 8 wins in two rounds is a very small sample, it means nothing.

 

[daver]

This is so reductive, it's mindboggling.

If McDavid gets more points when they lose, it might be because he elevates his play when he knows his teammates are underperforming (first game vs LA) and inversely, might play more conservative when his teammates play well. It's a TEAM sport. Notwithstanding the fact that 8 wins in two rounds is a very small sample, it means nothing.

Why isn't he also included in his team underperforming in Game 1 against LA? Some of the blame on a couple of the LA goals could certainly be attributed to him. Even that aside, he was pointless through 2 periods.

But the bigger points is, perhaps comparing the PPGs of Crosby vs. McDavid isn't the best inidicator of playoff performances if Crosby's teams were better positioned earlier in games and Crosby played more conservatively.