Is Mark Jankowski the most unlucky player in the last few seasons?

[belair]

He's averaged one shot for every two games over the first 30 as an NHL forward. I'd argue he's one of the luckiest considering he still has a job.

 

[Dessloch]

Is this the same player that put in this sweet move on a feed by Jaromir Jagr as a rookie? He was being touted as a great talent back then!



He was pretty good on tennis as well:

 

[treple13]

I mean, you can, but his PDO is far enough from 100 that you pretty much have to accept that this is mostly being driven by luck, random variance, or other factors outside of his control.

His PDO is 870. That means his combined shooting percentage and save percentage is 13% below league average.

There is not one skater in the NHL whose impact on the type of chances they allow vs. the type of chances they generate is large enough that they can reduce or increase their combine shooting percentage and save percentage by even 6.5%. (Or even close, really, but let's use 6.5% as a baseline.) Because Jankowski's individual impact on his PDO does not even approach half of the distance from average, we have to conclude that more than half of the distance from average is being driven mostly by factors out of his control.

Janko has been really bad, and also really unlucky. The biggest factor in him being bad, is how bad he's been, being unlucky is also a big part, but less so than him being bad.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Janko has been really bad, and also really unlucky. The biggest factor in him being bad, is how bad he's been, being unlucky is also a big part, but less so than him being bad.

But being bad refers to a lot more than specifically how he is impacting the quality of the chances (shots) that he creates, his individual ability to finish his own chances (shots), and the quality of the chances (shots) that he allows. Those are the only 3 factors that could specifically impact his PDO.

Again, there is no skater in the NHL who can individually impact the quality of these things to such a degree that they are pushing their own PDO to even half the distance below 100 that Jankowski’s PDO currently is.

 

[treple13]

But being bad refers to a lot more than specifically how he is impacting the quality of the chances (shots) that he creates, his individual ability to finish his own chances (shots), and the quality of the chances (shots) that he allows. Those are the only 3 factors that could specifically impact his PDO.

Again, there is no skater in the NHL who can individually impact the quality of these things to such a degree that they are pushing their own PDO to even half the distance below 100 that Jankowski’s PDO currently is.

I'm not saying that statistically. It's merely an observation. I don't disagree that his luck has been ridiculously bad. He hasn't been on the ice for a Flames goal this year is just insane. The 4th line has scored, but only when he misses a game or the lines switch somehow. I agree that even the worst player in the NHL is likely too good for that to happen to them, and Janko is not the worst player in the NHL.

I'm not an advanced stats guy. I'm just stating Janko does not look good this year despite his advanced stats which do look good and unlucky is only part of the story, even if it is a big part.

 

[JPeeper]

He's pretty f***ing terrible, but he should have a couple goals by now. Dude is missing open nets, 2-1's leading to fumbles from everyone involved.

He's been horrible sure, but he HAS been unlucky as well. He was trash most of last year also outside of all the shorthanded goals.

 

[Rogue Leader]

Pfff, that's rough. Such things happen every season to one or two players. If he is in the NHL he has got skills, let's hope he bounces back.

 

[Bose88]

Advanced stats are just trash. The end.

 

[sr edler]

Mark Jankowski

• 0G, 0A, 0P in 27 games
• 2.3 expected goals (0 actual)
• 55.8 xGF% (0% actual)
• 7.2% xGF relative (-48% actual)
• 8 on-ice expected goals (0 actual)
• 87 PDO

You forgot to add the most important numbers

 

[HighLifeMan]

I mean... 17 goals last season.

Yeah, I am not sure what that guy is talking about. Jankowski has an absolute rocket of a shot - but unfortunately needs time and space to utilize it as his release takes time. The problem this season (and quite frankly why he has always struggled at even strength) is that he does not consistently compete hard enough to find and create those open areas for himself.

His offensive game is much more suited for the wing where he can have a bit more flexibility offensively - but his "toolset" and relatively strong face off skills make him an attractive option to play center for a head coach.

 

[Kreegz2]

Nah that title goes to Robby Fabbri for blowing out two ACLs in a row and derailing what was shaping up to be a very promising career.

 

[blankall]

I honestly don't see Jankowski on the team for much longer. He doesn't really fit with the current up-tempo pace the Flames are building in their bottom six, which will likely consist of physical players, like Bennett and Lucic, tenacious players like, Ryan and Czarnik, and fast offensive players, like Dube and Mangiapane. I think, unfortunately, Jankowski has played himself out of a job on the Flames. He reminds me a lot of Joe Colborne at this point.

 

[InfinityIggy]

To me the most telling stat is actually that he has only managed to put 15 shots on net all season.

Watching him though, he is just bad. I don't know what happened to the guy but it's not a matter of luck that he has been probably our worst player this season.

 

[Mac Attack]

This is really funny. Val Nichushkin has passed the torch.

 

[CraigsList]

Hard to score when you shoot so little.

 

[Snakepit]

Basically, he's Joe Colbourne

 

[hotcabbagesoup]

You forgot to add the most important numbers

I just put Jankowski through the Squeeze Theorem looking for the limit as x-->infinity.

The answer I got was zero. His play really does make sense now.

Who needs advanced statistics eh? Multivariable calculuscorsi is the future.

 

[Fixxer]

This is really funny. Val Nichushkin has passed the torch.

I watched Nichushkin when the Avs faced MTL and he passed the eye test!

 

[pabst blue ribbon]

The "not on ice for a single goal for" streak just ended

 

[Volica]

He just got a secondary assist on a great Toby Rieder play.
This is why people laugh at pure analytics nerds.

Fans who watch the guy nightly:
"Yeah, dude's trashola. Super low impact player who normally gets outworked and outplayed 5v5. Skates well, and shoots well, but doesn't do either consistently. Super slow processor speed too. He doesn't shoot much either, essentially a shot every couple games. Replacement level in every sense... Dunno. Worst player on a team that has been underperforming until recently."

Guy looking at analytics:
"FOOLS, he's unlucky!!!"

 

[blankall]

Lol. Jankowski finally gets a point after this thread was started. Lucic scored two after the Lucic no goal thread. The Flames have won 5 in a row after the Flames such thread.

Any other thread to start? Heard Rittich hasn't had a shutout in a while. Heard the Flames haven't won a cup in a while. Heard the oilers haven't been sold to the KHL in a while.

 

[crackdown44]

He just got a secondary assist on a great Toby Rieder play.
This is why people laugh at pure analytics nerds.

Fans who watch the guy nightly:
"Yeah, dude's trashola. Super low impact player who normally gets outworked and outplayed 5v5. Skates well, and shoots well, but doesn't do either consistently. Super slow processor speed too. He doesn't shoot much either, essentially a shot every couple games. Replacement level in every sense... Dunno. Worst player on a team that has been underperforming until recently."

Guy looking at analytics:
"FOOLS, he's unlucky!!!"

He can be bad and unlucky

 

[kruezer]

I don't get the hate for Janko, all he needs to do is break even at even strength on the 4th line and be an excellent penalty killer to provide value on his contract. Maybe one day he can break even at a 3rd line level, but if he never does who cares. He plays by far the least per game at even strength of any player on Calgary that's played over 10 games so of course he doesn't get a tonne of points or get on the ice for a tonne of goals. He plays a full minute less at even strength than Tobias Reider for gods sake. He's still been an excellent PKer this year and reduces the time Calgary needs to play Ryan & Backlund on the PK so they can focus on ES and PP.

That said, he's not been great this year at even strength, but he managed to get on the ice for 41 goals at even strength last year and only 35 against, playing 3rd/4th line split of minutes. So he's only about 30 games removed from being a breakeven ES player that was great on the PK and never plays on the PP. Hardly worth flushing the guy for that. I'd flush Bennett before him, at least Janko has a natural role to play and only costs 1.675 per year. Basically your paying 800k above the minimum for an excellent PKer that's homegrown and still has a little potential upward mobility in the lineup, seems fine to me. Don't need any advanced stats to justify his value.

 

[sr edler]

He can be bad and unlucky

Quantify/describe being unlucky within a sports context. Did he (Jankowski) shoot a lot of nice pucks this season that someone tripped over and blocked by pure mistake, or what exactly happened?

Hitting posts isn't being unlucky, by the way, because posts are stationary and doesn't move on chance.

 

[TheUnusedCrayon]

I mean, you're allowed to interpret it that way. Based on xGF stats the chances he generates are quite a bit more dangerous than the ones he allows, but you are perfectly entitled to say the opposite.

These are the chances he "generates" (is on the ice for). Not very dangerous, you're right.

These are the chances he gives up. Almost nothing dangerous - that slot is a no-go zone when he's out there.

Out of curiosity where do you find statistics like these?