Is John Tavares a Hall of Fame Center?

[Lafleurs Guy]

Despite all my arguing for him, I think he might find it hard the first couple of votes just because his cohort class is going be super strong (depending on how long he sticks around).

Malkin, Kane, Crosby, Jagr, Ovi, Karlsson, Stamkos, Hedman, Kopitar, Doughty, etc.

Theres actually a good chance Marleau sneaks in to a class the next couple of years than Tavares his first couple of times, which is sad as guys like Mogilny, Tkachuk, Fleury, Gonchar, etc, are more deserving and should be in but have been snubbed for some reason.

I don’t think the class he’s up against will matter. Unless he had some great playoff performances- at least one - then he’s going to be waiting.

 

[hamzarocks]

Yea, Jagr isnt eligible until the guy finally retires lol. He says this is his last season though ending his 37 year career!

Tavares is a step above Giroux and Backstom. His goal scoring makes a huge difference. Despite a great peak, Giroux is going to struggle to get near 400 goals and will have far fewer points than Tavares and Backstrom has far worse production than both while living in the shadow of Ovi. His solid D doesnt nearly make up the ground.

All of this is subjective of course as the voters have surprised us in the past. If Tavares hits 600/1300, hes not a 50/50, thats for sure.

Backstrom paces 77 per 82 for his career
Giroux 73 per 82 for his career
Tavares 77 for his career

Tavares has 3 years still before he catches Giroux in age so his career production likely declines.

Giroux has as many/more top end seasons than Tavares. His 2012, 2014, and 2018 seasons he was top 4 in hart. He also played for the Flyers for his extemded prime which hurt his totals as the flyers were not a great offensive team compared to 2019-2022 leafs (period Giroux was still a Flyer)

Backstrom is very underrated. He was an incredible passer and helped OV maintain his prime in the 2010s. His injury unfrutnately got hurt by injuries from 2022 onwards.

Playoffs wise Tavares is also the worse performer of the three. I see them as a lot closer with goal scoring not being a moving factor between comparable players. They were at their peaks top 5 players (Tavares 2014 and 2015, Giroux 2012, 2014, and Backstrom 2010)

 

[Zybalto]

I don’t think the class he’s up against will matter. Unless he had some great playoff performances- at least one - then he’s going to be waiting.

Hey, thats the reason Hawerchuk wasnt a first ballot either. No major awards and never had that great playoff performance.

Backstrom paces 77 per 82 for his career
Giroux 73 per 82 for his career
Tavares 77 for his career

Tavares has 3 years still before he catches Giroux in age so his career production likely declines.

Giroux has as many/more top end seasons than Tavares. His 2012, 2014, and 2018 seasons he was top 4 in hart. He also played for the Flyers for his extemded prime which hurt his totals as the flyers were not a great offensive team compared to 2019-2022 leafs (period Giroux was still a Flyer)

Backstrom is very underrated. He was an incredible passer and helped OV maintain his prime in the 2010s. His injury unfrutnately got hurt by injuries from 2022 onwards.

Playoffs wise Tavares is also the worse performer of the three. I see them as a lot closer with goal scoring not being a moving factor between comparable players. They were at their peaks top 5 players (Tavares 2014 and 2015, Giroux 2012, 2014, and Backstrom 2010)

I think playing with Ovi actually hurts Backstrom in the sense its always in the back of peoples minds that Ovi may have "carried" him to an extent. Ovi doesnt seem to have that much trouble scoring goals without him. Nevermind if Ovi scores without Backstrom, does Backstrom pace that without Ovi? How does prime Tavares look with better linemates and not turning Moulson/Okposo/Parenteau into stars?

Giroux certainly has that great peak as well but when Tavares reaches Girouxs age with projected 550+ goals and 1250+ points (Giroux at 365, 1113 ATM), he's just the stronger candidate period. I do like Giroux and am hoping he hits 400/1200 despite slowing down this year and can make a strong case for him to make the hall but its just way easier with Tavares.

Like I said before, Tavares end totals in a mostly weak scoring era are going to look insane to keep him out. Add in international success, amazing junior career and that "special" factor of being the first "exceptional" player and he's got intangibles to get him across the line. He's also very well respected by the players/league so theres no worry there.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

No. Hes a good but not a great player.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Maybe with a cup / or an extended playoff run . Culmulatively he might get to the numbers necessary for a long look but he’s not there yet . Lacks hardware so needs something imo …

 

[authentic]

Wow Jagr isnt in the HHOF?

Didn't realize that yet. Thought you could play professional hockey in a lower league in Europe and still be eligible for HHOF.

Marleau will likely get gifted a spot but he has 0% claim of being in based on accomplishments, production and talent.

Tavares, Backstrom, Giroux are 50/50 with them all having the skill/talent to be in, with the three likely getting a call when higher tier legends you mentioned are already inducted

Tavares is not a 50/50, he’s going to the HOF guaranteed.

 

[authentic]

Maybe with a cup / or an extended playoff run . Culmulatively he might get to the numbers necessary for a long look but he’s not there yet . Lacks hardware so needs something imo …

His numbers are already better than several stars from the 80s who are HOFers. Been posted in this thread already but he’s ahead of Savard, Stastny and Hawerchuk in career adjusted points and has more Hart nominations than the three of them combined. Also about to finish top 10 in goals at 34, his goal scoring finishes are far better than them throughout their careers as well.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

His numbers are already better than several stars from the 80s who are HOFers. Been posted in this thread already but he’s ahead of Savard, Stastny and Hawerchuk in career adjusted points and has more Hart nominations than the three of them combined. Also about to finish top 10 in goals at 34, his goal scoring finishes are far better than them throughout their careers as well.

I think he needs to win something to cinch it ( like either individually or as a team ) but anything is possible . Saying this as a big Toronto fan

 

[authentic]

I think he needs to win something to cinch it ( like either individually or as a team ) but anything is possible . Saying this as a big Toronto fan

What did those players win individually though? Not trying to be argumentative just looking at it objectively. There are worse players than those I mentioned in the HOF and Tavares has surpassed them in every way.

 

[Zybalto]

What did those players win individually though? Not trying to be argumentative just looking at it objectively. There are worse players than those I mentioned in the HOF and Tavares has surpassed them in every way.

Even the basic numbers work out well for him.

With 3-4 players going in each year and figure Tavares is going to play 4 more seasons (for a 20 year career). Is he one of the top 60-80 players for those 20 years? Even if you think he's only the 47th best player or whatever, he's a lock. 3rd for goals and 5th for points over his 16 years right now.....lets see if we can expand on that.

Went over to quant and took a look at all players stats the last 25 years.

So far this century, Tavares ranks:

8th for goals scored
11th for points scored

...and thats without playing for 9 seasons. He can catch up to 10th for points by the end of the year (3 points off Giroux ATM). That would be a fun stat. Top 10 for both goals and points this century. Is he not one of the top 75-100 players of the century so far? Even going on the low end (75) would be interesting to see some naysayers struggle as they try to find 75 players they would take over him from their work so far this century.

Realistically, he's at least in the 25-50 range. Which is a solid HHOF lock. He could wait a couple years due to cohorts or trying to make up for a couple dead puck guys but they arnt going to leave him twisting in the wind with staggering production totals.

 

[hamzarocks]

Tavares is not a 50/50, he’s going to the HOF guaranteed.

I dont see how a player who has been top 15/20 once league wide for last 7 years is a deadlock for the HOF

If you look from 2019-now Tavares isnt a top 30 player.

Tavares has not been in discussion for the best players league wide in 8 years now.

He isnt a surefire guy who dominated the league. He is a compiler who is adding to his career points but isnt amongst the top 30 players league wide similar to a Giroux or Backstrom

Hey, thats the reason Hawerchuk wasnt a first ballot either. No major awards and never had that great playoff performance.


I think playing with Ovi actually hurts Backstrom in the sense its always in the back of peoples minds that Ovi may have "carried" him to an extent. Ovi doesnt seem to have that much trouble scoring goals without him. Nevermind if Ovi scores without Backstrom, does Backstrom pace that without Ovi? How does prime Tavares look with better linemates and not turning Moulson/Okposo/Parenteau into stars?

Giroux certainly has that great peak as well but when Tavares reaches Girouxs age with projected 550+ goals and 1250+ points (Giroux at 365, 1113 ATM), he's just the stronger candidate period. I do like Giroux and am hoping he hits 400/1200 despite slowing down this year and can make a strong case for him to make the hall but its just way easier with Tavares.

Like I said before, Tavares end totals in a mostly weak scoring era are going to look insane to keep him out. Add in international success, amazing junior career and that "special" factor of being the first "exceptional" player and he's got intangibles to get him across the line. He's also very well respected by the players/league so theres no worry there.

Tavares counting stats just support he continues to compile pts for his career totals while being a non top 30 player in the league.

Tavares has zero playoff accolades, wasn't part of 2010, 2014 (injured in training camp) Olympics or even at the 4 nations tourny. I think he played the 2016 WCH which is the only best on best tourney he participated in. I dont think hell be on the 2026 Olympics team either.

Tavares intangibles hurt him, he's known to be a poor leader and captain both for the leafs and isles.

Tavares started out of the gate in his D+1 vs Giroux who was I think D+3 which will explain Giroux ending with ~1200 pts and Tavares with ~1350 pts. The flyers were slower to bring Giroux in due to having Richards and Carter vs Tavares who got put in right away due to isles having no one to let him play an additional season in the CHL.

I will admit Tavares at 19 was ahead by Giroux by a fair bit with Giroux closing gaps a lot to make their careers be pretty even at this pt.

Tavares was equal to Giroux in 2023, equal in 2024 and is better in 2025. They have been very comparable players for their careers on a season by season basis.

Tavares linemate argument also folds when his production got worse relative to league wide as scoring increased in 2019+ era when he played on high offensive leafs team.

A sure fire hall of famer is a Malkin, Kane, Crosby, OV from the 05 era (pre mcdavid era) stars

A 50/50 hall of famer as of now should be Tavares, Backstrom, Giroux as they were tier back of the above

You also have guys like Bergeron, Toews, Kopitar who will be viewed as better players than the 3 names above due to playoff success and defensive/intangible factors. Stamkos also falls somewhere in those 2 lower groups.

Tavares making the hall of fame isn't a terrible decision based on modern standards. He's better than Lowe, andreychuk, and a bunch of other guys.

But he is worse than Gilmour and Sundin for me and neither of them were tier 1 hall of famers either. The HOF should be more selective in my opinion. Less players should be getting in and less frequent inductions should be happening to increase validty and quality of HOF

 

[qcal1427]

I dont see how a player who has been top 15/20 once league wide for last 7 years is a deadlock for the HOF

If you look from 2019-now Tavares isnt a top 30 player.

Tavares has not been in discussion for the best players league wide in 8 years now.

He isnt a surefire guy who dominated the league. He is a compiler who is adding to his career points but isnt amongst the top 30 players league wide similar to a Giroux or Backstrom

Tavares counting stats just support he continues to compile pts for his career totals while being a non top 30 player in the league.

Tavares has zero playoff accolades, wasn't part of 2010, 2014 (injured in training camp) Olympics or even at the 4 nations tourny. I think he played the 2016 WCH which is the only best on best tourney he participated in. I dont think hell be on the 2026 Olympics team either.

Tavares intangibles hurt him, he's known to be a poor leader and captain both for the leafs and isles.

Tavares started out of the gate in his D+1 vs Giroux who was I think D+3 which will explain Giroux ending with ~1200 pts and Tavares with ~1350 pts. The flyers were slower to bring Giroux in due to having Richards and Carter vs Tavares who got put in right away due to isles having no one to let him play an additional season in the CHL.

I will admit Tavares at 19 was ahead by Giroux by a fair bit with Giroux closing gaps a lot to make their careers be pretty even at this pt.

Tavares was equal to Giroux in 2023, equal in 2024 and is better in 2025. They have been very comparable players for their careers on a season by season basis.

Tavares linemate argument also folds when his production got worse relative to league wide as scoring increased in 2019+ era when he played on high offensive leafs team.

A sure fire hall of famer is a Malkin, Kane, Crosby, OV from the 05 era (pre mcdavid era) stars

A 50/50 hall of famer as of now should be Tavares, Backstrom, Giroux as they were tier back of the above

You also have guys like Bergeron, Toews, Kopitar who will be viewed as better players than the 3 names above due to playoff success and defensive/intangible factors. Stamkos also falls somewhere in those 2 lower groups.

Tavares making the hall of fame isn't a terrible decision based on modern standards. He's better than Lowe, andreychuk, and a bunch of other guys.

But he is worse than Gilmour and Sundin for me and neither of them were tier 1 hall of famers either. The HOF should be more selective in my opinion. Less players should be getting in and less frequent inductions should be happening to increase validty and quality of HOF

Off the top of my head (definitely forgetting guys, probably obvious ones) here are my tiers for this generation's forwards based more off of how the Hall has been run than how I would want it to be run:

Inner Circle: Crosby, Ovi
1st Ballot Guarantee: Malkin, Kane, Bergeron
Lock: Kopitar, Toews (as much as it irks me), Stamkos
More likely than not: Tavares, Marchand
Less likely than not: Backstrom, Giroux, Getzlaf, Benn, Perry, E. Staal, Pavelski

 

[Golden_Jet]

Off the top of my head (definitely forgetting guys, probably obvious ones) here are my tiers for this generation's forwards based more off of how the Hall has been run than how I would want it to be run:

Inner Circle: Crosby, Ovi
1st Ballot Guarantee: Malkin, Kane, Bergeron
Lock: Kopitar, Toews (as much as it irks me), Stamkos
More likely than not: Tavares, Marchand
Less likely than not: Backstrom, Giroux, Getzlaf, Benn, Perry, E. Staal, Pavelski

I’d say currently JT and Giroux are at the same level, of chances of getting in,

 

[hamzarocks]

Off the top of my head (definitely forgetting guys, probably obvious ones) here are my tiers for this generation's forwards based more off of how the Hall has been run than how I would want it to be run:

Inner Circle: Crosby, Ovi
1st Ballot Guarantee: Malkin, Kane, Bergeron
Lock: Kopitar, Toews (as much as it irks me), Stamkos
More likely than not: Tavares, Marchand
Less likely than not: Backstrom, Giroux, Getzlaf, Benn, Perry, E. Staal, Pavelski

If you bump Giroux and Backstrom to your more likely tier and drop bergeron to lock I'd agree (his reputation being very strong gets him there b/c career wise him and Getzlaf were similar but having 7 Selke's will get him to the hall despite his offense and playoffs being not at the level of Stamkos & Kopitar)

Stamkos I also do find very weird. Peak Stamkos was elite but after his leg injury he was more of a finisher and became a Tavares/Giroux/Backstrom tier player. He benefits from his amazing 10-13 period b/c after that Im not sure he was better than those 3 as a player

 

[Zybalto]

I’d say currently JT and Giroux are at the same level, of chances of getting in,

Both have peaks as multi-year top 5 guys.
Both have international cred but suffer from lack of tourneys.
Giroux a great playoff performer earlier (and it can be argued Tavares was great for the Isles too) but both have been bad for a long time now (Giroux only 5 goals, 20 points his last 38 playoff games) and no cup for both.
Tavares better junior career and legacy. (One of the greatest of all time and they had to change rules for him)

Tavares: 1x first team AS
Giroux: 1x second team AS

I think both should be getting in considering the era they played in but Tavares goal scoring puts him in a tier above. Adjusting for era, he is going to end up a top 20 goal scorer in history.

The horse has already left the barn on criteria and when a player has that many goals and points, hes going in. Throw in the 2 BoB golds and junior career and thats it.

Like I said before, you think Tavares isnt making it in with these totals vs other guys not in the HOF: (Being kind enough to both that they dont get injured or fall off a cliff)

Goals:
Tavares: 608 (projected)
Marleau: 566
Tkachuk: 538
Verbeek: 532
Bondra: 503
Tavares: 492 (current)
Giroux: 412 (projected)
Giroux: 365 (current)

Points:
Tavares: 1369 (projected)
Giroux: 1255 (projected)
Nicholls: 1209
Damphousse: 1205
Marleau: 1197
Brind'Amour: 1194
Giroux: 1113 (current)
Tavares: 1110 (current)

He has to hit those numbers of course but there is no way in hell the voters leave Tavares out considering both his era and just how many other players without playoff success are in the hall with far worse numbers. He hits those and hes a 100% lock. Those goal scoring/points numbers are crazy.

Giroux has a tougher time but still has a strong case.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Both have peaks as multi-year top 5 guys.
Both have international cred but suffer from lack of tourneys.
Giroux a great playoff performer earlier (and it can be argued Tavares was great for the Isles too) but both have been bad for a long time now (Giroux only 5 goals, 20 points his last 38 playoff games) and no cup for both.
Tavares better junior career and legacy. (One of the greatest of all time and they had to change rules for him)

Tavares: 1x first team AS
Giroux: 1x second team AS

I think both should be getting in considering the era they played in but Tavares goal scoring puts him in a tier above. Adjusting for era, he is going to end up a top 20 goal scorer in history.

The horse has already left the barn on criteria and when a player has that many goals and points, hes going in. Throw in the 2 BoB golds and junior career and thats it.

Like I said before, you think Tavares isnt making it in with these totals vs other guys not in the HOF: (Being kind enough to both that they dont get injured or fall off a cliff)

Goals:
Tavares: 608 (projected)
Marleau: 566
Tkachuk: 538
Verbeek: 532
Bondra: 503
Tavares: 492 (current)
Giroux: 412 (projected)
Giroux: 365 (current)

Points:
Tavares: 1369 (projected)
Giroux: 1255 (projected)
Nicholls: 1209
Damphousse: 1205
Marleau: 1197
Brind'Amour: 1194
Giroux: 1113 (current)
Tavares: 1110 (current)

He has to hit those numbers of course but there is no way in hell the voters leave Tavares out considering both his era and just how many other players without playoff success are in the hall with far worse numbers. He hits those and hes a 100% lock. Those goal scoring/points numbers are crazy.

Giroux has a tougher time but still has a strong case.

I never said, he wasn’t getting in, I said him and Giroux have similar cases.
I think it’s a 50/50 if they get in, it won’t be right away, he will wait a bit if gets in, is what I’ve always said.
From what I’ve seen in here, a lot agree, even some leaf fans.

 

[Zybalto]

I never said, he wasn’t getting in, I said him and Giroux have similar cases.
I think it’s a 50/50 if they get in, it won’t be right away, he will wait a bit if gets in, is what I’ve always said.
From what I’ve seen in here, a lot agree, even some leaf fans.

Leaf fan or not, it doesnt matter.

If he hits those numbers hes 100% getting in. So I can only guess you dont think he will get those numbers?

 

[Golden_Jet]

Leaf fan or not, it doesnt matter.

If he hits those numbers hes 100% getting in. So I can only guess you dont think he will get those numbers?

I’m not responding again, it’s in black and white what I said more than once, in this thread, it’s 50/50 imo, not sure why that’s so hard to read lol.

 

[Zybalto]

Off the top of my head (definitely forgetting guys, probably obvious ones) here are my tiers for this generation's forwards based more off of how the Hall has been run than how I would want it to be run:

Inner Circle: Crosby, Ovi
1st Ballot Guarantee: Malkin, Kane, Bergeron
Lock: Kopitar, Toews (as much as it irks me), Stamkos
More likely than not: Tavares, Marchand
Less likely than not: Backstrom, Giroux, Getzlaf, Benn, Perry, E. Staal, Pavelski

With at least 60 players going in over a 20 year period, more of those guys are going in than you think. I know we are going to pull a couple of guys from the past but can you pick just 50 guys drafted this century you think are going to make it in? This is where guys like Getzlaf and Giroux start to look far more promising and Marleau gets in for being Mr. "Ironman".

 

[Zybalto]

I’m not responding again, it’s in black and white what I said more than once, in this thread, it’s 50/50 imo, not sure why that’s so hard to read lol.

50/50. Same as Giroux. Got it.

Sorry to trigger ya.

 

[MS]

The standard now is so watered down that hitting 1000 points basically gets you in.

1000 points have always basically gotten you in unless you were a massive compiler. The standards haven't changed, and if anything are tougher now than for guys from the 1950s-1980s.

____________

Tavares is approaching 1200 career points, is a 2x Hart finalist, and 5x top-10 in goals (3x top-5). There is no player with a comparable resume not in the HHOF. He's a dead lock. If you are arguing otherwise, you are wrong.

 

[Golden_Jet]

1000 points have always basically gotten you in unless you were a massive compiler.

That’s not true,

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Among eligible players, there isn’t a single player with 500 goals and 1100 assists that isn’t in the HOF.

 

[Oilslick941611]

I personally dont think so, but my criteria for the HHOF arent the same as the selection committee, but with that being said, There are many players not in HHOF that should get in before him.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

I personally dont think so, but my criteria for the HHOF arent the same as the selection committee, but with that being said, There are many players not in HHOF that should get in before him.

Given with 8 more goals, he’ll hit a point where no eligible player is excluded (and he may have 4-6 seasons left), please list these players. Keeping in mind your personal criteria has no bearing on entry.