Is John Tavares a Hall of Fame Center?

[chaz4hockey]

Let's say he plays another 4 years and finishes with over 1200 points but doesn't win a cup. Would his career be all that different from Sundin or Alfredsson?

brind’amour scored almost 1,200 points, won a cup and is not in.

Either is butch goring who was another great 2-way player who won 4 cups including a playoff MVP.

JT is not either of those guys and shouldn’t get in.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Tavares has aged better as a scorer than all of them, that’s why his career adjusted numbers are better.

I'd like to understand adjusted numbers a little better. I view them pretty skeptically because there were two huge anomolies in a smaller league who had a huge effect on their team's scoring. As such a guy like Yzerman who put up 155 gets his numbers downgraded when they probably shouldn't be.

I think it's a much more accurate way of looking at things when you compare the finishes. Sometimes I'll also remove any top 4 player and their teammates from the equation (Orr, Gretz, Lemieux, Howe) to get a better sense of how good they were. As an example, Yzerman was a lot better than people remember. His numbers got overshadowed because he was on crap teams and lived with two goliaths. Take those two players away and he might be viewed as the best player of his generation. Take away Gretz/Lemieux and their teammates and he has Harts in 88 and 89. He'd be the highest scorer cumulatively for six seasons and his legacy would be a lot better than it is.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Barring injuries he’s a lock. He’s going to finish around top 20 in goals and top 20 in points. Every single person there is in the HOF.

 

[Coffee]

Eh. I don't think so.

Now? perhaps

 

[WillardJFredricks]

No. Excellent player, but he shouldn't be a hall-of-famer. However, the NHL is pretty lax with who gets in, so I think he will be. But he's more suited for the (non existent) very good player hall-of-fame.

 

[zenator]

Yes. Not one of the best Hall of Famers, but he should be in. So should Brind'amour and Keith Tkachuk.

All 3 of these guys are better than Bernie Federko, Pierre Turgeon, and Kevin Lowe.

 

[qcal1427]

I'd like to understand adjusted numbers a little better. I view them pretty skeptically because there were two huge anomolies in a smaller league who had a huge effect on their team's scoring. As such a guy like Yzerman who put up 155 gets his numbers downgraded when they probably shouldn't be.

There are a huge number of factors, big and small, that affect the overall amount of goals scored within a league season -- number of powerplays, talent of goalies, talent of shooters, evolutions in technology (curved sticks! bigger goalie pads!), evolutions in training, evolutions in tactics, literal number of games played, and so on. The game has changed in many ways throughout it's long history such some sustained stretches of seasons have had almost 80% more goals scored in them than others.

Adjusted points are a a way to approximate production relative to the scoring environment that a player played in. Everyone intuitively understands that a goal was harder to score in the dead-puck era than the late 80s. Adjusted goals are an attempt to quantify how much harder it was. For the actual calculation, I'll just post the HRef link as they do a very good job explaining it.

Adjusted Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

Explaination of hockey stats adjusted for the era the games were played in.

www.hockey-reference.com

As for the effect that the all-time greats like Gretzky and Lemieux had on leaguewide scoring environments -- in 84-85 there were 6,531 total goals scored in the regular season. Gretzky's league leading 72 goals were barely over 1% of the total amount scored that year. If you are even more generous and imagine that had Gretzky never existed none of the goals he had a point on would've been scored (a very flawed assumption IMO), that is still only a decrease of 3%. Scoring dropped 34% from 84-85 to 03-04. The disappearance of Rushmore-type players in their prime is only a small part of the much larger story of scoring changes.

Overall I think they're a very important tool when comparing the counting stats of players across eras.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

There are a huge number of factors, big and small, that affect the overall amount of goals scored within a league season -- number of powerplays, talent of goalies, talent of shooters, evolutions in technology (curved sticks! bigger goalie pads!), evolutions in training, evolutions in tactics, literal number of games played, and so on. The game has changed in many ways throughout it's long history such some sustained stretches of seasons have had almost 80% more goals scored in them than others.View attachment 1006486
Adjusted points are a a way to approximate production relative to the scoring environment that a player played in. Everyone intuitively understands that a goal was harder to score in the dead-puck era than the late 80s. Adjusted goals are an attempt to quantify how much harder it was. For the actual calculation, I'll just post the HRef link as they do a very good job explaining it.

Adjusted Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

Explaination of hockey stats adjusted for the era the games were played in.

www.hockey-reference.com

As for the effect that the all-time greats like Gretzky and Lemieux had on leaguewide scoring environments -- in 84-85 there were 6,531 total goals scored in the regular season. Gretzky's league leading 72 goals were barely over 1% of the total amount scored that year. If you are even more generous and imagine that had Gretzky never existed none of the goals he had a point on would've been scored (a very flawed assumption IMO), that is still only a decrease of 3%. Scoring dropped 34% from 84-85 to 03-04. The disappearance of Rushmore-type players in their prime is only a small part of the much larger story of scoring changes.

Overall I think they're a very important tool when comparing the counting stats of players across eras.

There’s a ripple effect with Gretzky/Lemieux though. They didn’t just put up huge numbers, their teammates did as well. I’d rather we eliminate their teams from the equation altogether. I mean you had guys like Rob Brown scoring 50. Bernie Nichols suddenly jumped to 150 points… Withiut those two, Yzerman’s 155 would’ve been historic. But with them in the league it seems like just any other season by a superstar.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Based on some of the people in the Hall absolutely.

He's going to retire with close to 1300 points, he might even break 1300 points.

 

[Mulletman]

brind’amour scored almost 1,200 points, won a cup and is not in.

Either is butch goring who was another great 2-way player who won 4 cups including a playoff MVP.

JT is not either of those guys and shouldn’t get in.

Bernie Nicholls is the highest scoring player not in the hall of fame out of all retired players with 1209 points. Tavares is going to surpass that before he retires. Are you suggesting that John Tavares should be the highest scoring player of all time to not make the Hall of fame?

 

[Zybalto]

Tavares is easily a HOFer. Close to top 5 in goals, nearly 35, as a slow skater in an league full of speed skaters is a testament to his talent, and all the career stats you listed made me realize he’s even better than I thought in career value.

Once again, players who had their peaks during low scoring eras will always be underrated.

Yea, Tavares is just one of the players out there who is getting overlooked. Letting in so many fringe candidates from the late 70s to early 90s with those 500 goal 1000 point benchmarks has muddied the water when it comes to dead puck era players that are clearly better than guys getting in. The trap systems, fully armored goalies, etc. have really shut out a lot of more deserving candidates.

Not saying he will hit his projected numbers but Tavares current projected numbers are 608 goals and 1369 points.


Only 6 players that debuted in the 2000-2009 decade will even score 500 goals. Ovi, Crosby, Stamkos, Malkin, Kane and Tavares....and only Ovi, Crosby and Stamkos are solidly 600 goal scorers. If Tavares hits that as well, his goal scoring alone will get him in for his era.

 

[qcal1427]

There’s a ripple effect with Gretzky/Lemieux though. They didn’t just put up huge numbers, their teammates did as well. I’d rather we eliminate their teams from the equation altogether. I mean you had guys like Rob Brown scoring 50. Bernie Nichols suddenly jumped to 150 points… Withiut those two, Yzerman’s 155 would’ve been historic. But with them in the league it seems like just any other season by a superstar.

If you remove every goal the Oilers scored in 84-85 (once again I would still say a flawed premise ...) league scoring that year would've only dropped 6%. It's quite a bit, but nowhere near what would be required for even the drop between the mid 80s and mid 90s let alone the peak dead-puck era or the early 2010s where a guy like Tavares did most of his damage.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

If you remove every goal the Oilers scored in 84-85 (once again I would still say a flawed premise ...) league scoring that year would've only dropped 6%. It's quite a bit, but nowhere near what would be required for even the drop between the mid 80s and mid 90s let alone the peak dead-puck era or the early 2010s where a guy like Tavares did most of his damage.

6 percent is a pretty significant drop.

How much does it drop if you're removing the Kings and Pens in 89? I'd be curious to know.

 

[qcal1427]

6 percent is a pretty significant drop.

How much does it drop if you're removing the Kings and Pens in 89? I'd be curious to know.

Let me clarify a bit on the math and the assumptions in this, I was pretty vague in the last one

Average goals/team/gp in 88-89: 3.74
Average goals/team/gp in 88-89 if LAK and PIT played but were shut out in every single game: 3.66

Average goals/team/gp in 2000-01: 2.75
Average goals/team/gp in 2014-15 (Tavares' only 1st team All-Star selection): 2.66

There are probably more statistically rigorous ways to answer the same question but 1) you'd get a very similar result and 2) it involves a better database than HRef and I don't want to spend the time doing it ...

Gretzky and Lemieux had really incredible impacts on league scoring, far more than any other players in history. Over the course of an entire league season though with so many teams, so many players, and so many games one player is a drop in the bucket -- even if they're the best player of all time. The full story of why overall scoring levels have changed is a much larger (and very interesting!) one that involves a ton of different factors, none of which really have anything to do with one or two specific players being in the league.

Of course adjusted points aren't perfect, but they're a very good reference point

 

[Legion34]

Marleau isnt a compiler since hes a career 50ish pt player. He comes nowhere close to fringe HHOF play besides the games played record.

He was not even a hall of very good level player. Super long career but disapointing for a #2 Overall

Tavares league wide scoring finishes from 2018-2019 to now are generally outside the top 20. He is a great player generally but isnt a top 20-25 player almost any year since 2019.

2019 - 16th in pts and 21st in ppg
2020 - 40th in pts and 28th in ppg
2021 - 26th in pts and 34th in ppg
2022 - 42nd in pts and 51st in ppg
2023 - 29th in pts and 38th in ppg
2024 - 73rd in pts and 85th in ppg
2025 - 31st in pts and 31st in ppg

Note above ppg is for >40 games limit filter per NHL.com

He is a guy who could make the hall of fame by sustaining strong play and compiling pts while not being as valuable as you would expect

Tavares was a top 2 finisher and has 2 hart finalists.

 

[Zybalto]

Bernie Nicholls is the highest scoring player not in the hall of fame out of all retired players with 1209 points. Tavares is going to surpass that before he retires. Are you suggesting that John Tavares should be the highest scoring player of all time to not make the Hall of fame?

Taking away the obvious lock active players making the HHOF, the list of players with the most points and not in is:

Tavares: 1369 (projected)
Nicholls: 1209
Damphousse: 1205
Marleau: 1197
Brind'Amour: 1194
Giroux: 1113
Tavares: 1110 (current)

...and Nicholls had a one season peak where he was a 70 goal, 150 point player. (and only made 4th in AS voting for his position)
I wonder if a guy named Gretzky had something to do with it?

Giroux is a more interesting active case IMO. He's fallen off this year but can certainly make a push for 1200.

If Tavares hits his projected numbers:

The most points not in the Hall. (by far)
The most goals not in the Hall. (by a solid margin)
The only 2x Hart nominee not in the Hall.
The only 1st team AS center not in the Hall.

Eventually, leaving him out starts to look pretty ridiculous. He still has to hit those numbers of course.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Let me clarify a bit on the math and the assumptions in this, I was pretty vague in the last one

Average goals/team/gp in 88-89: 3.74
Average goals/team/gp in 88-89 if LAK and PIT played but were shut out in every single game: 3.66

Average goals/team/gp in 2000-01: 2.75
Average goals/team/gp in 2014-15 (Tavares' only 1st team All-Star selection): 2.66

There are probably more statistically rigorous ways to answer the same question but 1) you'd get a very similar result and 2) it involves a better database than HRef and I don't want to spend the time doing it ...

Gretzky and Lemieux had really incredible impacts on league scoring, far more than any other players in history. Over the course of an entire league season though with so many teams, so many players, and so many games one player is a drop in the bucket -- even if they're the best player of all time. The full story of why overall scoring levels have changed is a much larger (and very interesting!) one that involves a ton of different factors, none of which really have anything to do with one or two specific players being in the league.

Of course adjusted points aren't perfect, but they're a very good reference point

Thanks for doing the legwork.

I'm still not a fan of those stats but appreciate all that you've said. I still think the best picture you get when comparing players though comes from looking at how they did vs contemporaries.

Different eras have different results and it stands to reason you'll have different totals. That's kind of why I mostly dismiss the totals altogether if it's that kind of comparison. But I will look at how they did in the regular season vs playoffs. Can they maintain the same level of production there. Above I used the other three and said point per game in the playoffs - for most the dropoff isn't really that big. It's a dropoff but they're still decent performers. For Tavares the drop seems a little steeper. And unlike Savard or Hawerchuk - who played with crap teams that were playoff canon fodder - Tavares has actually played on some good teams and gone nowhere. Hawerchuk drops a bit in the postseason - about 13 percent. Tavares drops 21 percent.

 

[qcal1427]

Tavares lost the Art Ross by 1 point. That's a pretty arbitrary distinction to judge someone's entire career.

Are we going to start splitting hairs like this about Cups too? Does it matter that McDavid doesn't have one, he was only a game away?

Like it or not actual trophy wins matter more than top 5 finishes, no matter how small the difference between the two is.

I'm a small Hall guy too but the toothpaste is out of the tube at this point. If guys like Andreychuk are in, the floodgates are open. Assuming Tavares stays healthy and plays another 4-5 years there really won't be any argument to keep him out considering how low the floor is for others.

I do agree with this but he's probably in the second group of guys from his era to get the call (as he should be)

 

[hamzarocks]

Tavares was a top 2 finisher and has 2 hart finalists.

Im talking about his leaf career.

His stint with the isles I think ends up being enough to ultimately push him over the line and be a second/third ballot hall of famer

With the leafs he has not been a hhof level player and has compiled high pt totals due to increased league scoring and a strong offensive cast driving his offense

 

[Zybalto]

Im talking about his leaf career.

His stint with the isles I think ends up being enough to ultimately push him over the line and be a second/third ballot hall of famer

With the leafs he has not been a hhof level player and has compiled high pt totals due to increased league scoring and a strong offensive cast driving his offense

Despite all my arguing for him, I think he might find it hard the first couple of votes just because his cohort class is going be super strong (depending on how long he sticks around).

Malkin, Kane, Crosby, Jagr, Ovi, Karlsson, Stamkos, Hedman, Kopitar, Doughty, etc.

Theres actually a good chance Marleau sneaks in to a class the next couple of years than Tavares his first couple of times, which is sad as guys like Mogilny, Tkachuk, Fleury, Gonchar, etc, are more deserving and should be in but have been snubbed for some reason.

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

He has a lot of career “nothing” points - yay, every game he’ll rack up a secondary assist or a meaningless goal. I don’t think it’ll be enough to get into the HHOF.

His playoff resume is absolute shit. Not saying he needs to win a Cup, but no deep runs, he’s won two playoff series in his life and then got obliterated in the second round both times. His playoff stats are underwhelming.

His international play is pretty lacklustre, too. He won a Gold medal in the 2014 Olympics with 0 points. He won Gold in the 2016 WCH with 1 goal and 4 points in 6 games. And he was not good enough for the 2025 4 Nations.

No strong 2-way game, no NHL awards, no super memorable moments, no playoff run, not even a 90-point season.

 

[hamzarocks]

Despite all my arguing for him, I think he might find it hard the first couple of votes just because his cohort class is going be super strong (depending on how long he sticks around).

Malkin, Kane, Crosby, Jagr, Ovi, Karlsson, Stamkos, Hedman, Kopitar, Doughty, etc.

Theres actually a good chance Marleau sneaks in to a class the next couple of years than Tavares his first couple of times, which is sad as guys like Mogilny, Tkachuk, Fleury, Gonchar, etc, are more deserving and should be in but have been snubbed for some reason.

Wow Jagr isnt in the HHOF?

Didn't realize that yet. Thought you could play professional hockey in a lower league in Europe and still be eligible for HHOF.

Marleau will likely get gifted a spot but he has 0% claim of being in based on accomplishments, production and talent.

Tavares, Backstrom, Giroux are 50/50 with them all having the skill/talent to be in, with the three likely getting a call when higher tier legends you mentioned are already inducted

 

[edog37]

In a word….no

 

[Zybalto]

Wow Jagr isnt in the HHOF?

Didn't realize that yet. Thought you could play professional hockey in a lower league in Europe and still be eligible for HHOF.

Marleau will likely get gifted a spot but he has 0% claim of being in based on accomplishments, production and talent.

Tavares, Backstrom, Giroux are 50/50 with them all having the skill/talent to be in, with the three likely getting a call when higher tier legends you mentioned are already inducted

Yea, Jagr isnt eligible until the guy finally retires lol. He says this is his last season though ending his 37 year career!

Tavares is a step above Giroux and Backstom. His goal scoring makes a huge difference. Despite a great peak, Giroux is going to struggle to get near 400 goals and will have far fewer points than Tavares and Backstrom has far worse production than both while living in the shadow of Ovi. His solid D doesnt nearly make up the ground.

All of this is subjective of course as the voters have surprised us in the past. If Tavares hits 600/1300, hes not a 50/50, thats for sure.

 

[chaz4hockey]

Bernie Nicholls is the highest scoring player not in the hall of fame out of all retired players with 1209 points. Tavares is going to surpass that before he retires. Are you suggesting that John Tavares should be the highest scoring player of all time to not make the Hall of fame?

YES

Brind'Amour has 2 Selkes (last 3 years of his career was when face-offs were tracked....he was almost 60% combined from the Dot), was a driving force in Canes getting to Finals in '02, winning a Cup in '06, getting to Conf. Finals in '09 whereas Tavares has achieved none of that.

Nice player, not HOF. I'd put both Brind'Amour and Goring in the HOF well before JT.