Is John Tavares a Hall of Fame Center?

[Ghetty Green]

Nah

 

[hirawl]

I think he'll get there pretty easily. The bar is constantly moving. As it should. Players need to be measured against their peers in the same timeframe. Not against an imaginary bar set by that guy in the sixties or this guy in the eighties or something.

When it's all said and done Tavares has most likely done enough to get in.

 

[CatOTails]

Nah, somewhere with Mogilniy in tier of very good.

 

[Voight]

Not the best HHOF inductee but was a star in his day. Better choice than Tavares, not by much.

 

[Voight]

He will make it but onky due to standard set by the league previously.

HHOF is easy enough to make and Tavares has been productive for majority of his career.

I will say he benefits from compiling more so than elite play.

Panarin has a thread up and people are still not sure if he gets in.

Panarin has the better peak, prime and playoffs than Tavares (despite being a poor playoff player himself).

Besides maybe 2019 Tavares has never been a better player than Panarin since 2016 when Panarin entered the NHL.

Centers seem to benefit and get passes for the hall of fame while wingers are held to tough standards

Lol what? A compiler is someone who hangs on just to reach big numbers like 500 goals or 1000 points. Someone like Marleau for example is a compiler. Never had a season where he was a top forward but just hung around long enough to up their career totals.

Tavares is still at a PPG level. He isn's a compiler nor is be "benefitting" from that.

 

[hamzarocks]

Lol what? A compiler is someone who hangs on just to reach big numbers like 500 goals or 1000 points. Someone like Marleau for example is a compiler. Never had a season where he was a top forward but just hung around long enough to up their career totals.

Tavares is still at a PPG level. He isn's a compiler nor is be "benefitting" from that.

Marleau isnt a compiler since hes a career 50ish pt player. He comes nowhere close to fringe HHOF play besides the games played record.

He was not even a hall of very good level player. Super long career but disapointing for a #2 Overall

Tavares league wide scoring finishes from 2018-2019 to now are generally outside the top 20. He is a great player generally but isnt a top 20-25 player almost any year since 2019.

2019 - 16th in pts and 21st in ppg
2020 - 40th in pts and 28th in ppg
2021 - 26th in pts and 34th in ppg
2022 - 42nd in pts and 51st in ppg
2023 - 29th in pts and 38th in ppg
2024 - 73rd in pts and 85th in ppg
2025 - 31st in pts and 31st in ppg

Note above ppg is for >40 games limit filter per NHL.com

He is a guy who could make the hall of fame by sustaining strong play and compiling pts while not being as valuable as you would expect

 

[Voight]

Marleau isnt a compiler since hes a career 50ish pt player. He comes nowhere close to fringe HHOF play besides the games played record.

He was not even a hall of very good level player. Super long career but disapointing for a #2 Overall

Tavares league wide scoring finishes from 2018-2019 to now are generally outside the top 20. He is a great player generally but isnt a top 20-25 player almost any year since 2019.

He is a guy who could make the hall of fame by sustaining strong play and compiling pts while not being as valuable as you would expect

Marleau is essentially the definition of a compiler.

Tavares sint a compiler. If hes still kick around in 5 years averaging 40 points a season, then I will agree. However hes done enough during his prime to where he won't needs to stick around just to increase his career totals. Hes going to score 500 goals and 1200 points without stooping to that level.

 

[hamzarocks]

Marleau is essentially the definition of a compiler.

Tavares sint a compiler. If hes still kick around in 5 years averaging 40 points a season, then I will agree. However hes done enough during his prime to where he won't needs to stick around just to increase his career totals. Hes going to score 500 goals and 1200 points without stooping to that level.

I guess we disagree on what a compiler is for the HHOF

Marleau from 1998 to 2004 had 327 pts in 558 good for 48 pts per 82. This was all DPE but he sucked hard even compared to other low producing stars who could get 65-70 pts still in the same era.

Then his only "great" stretch of his career was 2006 to 2014. He had 604 pts in 689 games good for 71 pts per 82. This was with peak Joe Thornton added and very high scoring league for 2 seasons in 2006 and 2007. This prime period stretch would likely not be enough to be a hall of famer even if instead of 669 games it was for 1300 games (see people now being skeptical of Backstrom and Giroux making it who were much better players than Marleau ever was)

Then he hung around for the games plaued record. His actual production and per game production worsened and his career totals dont look anywhere close to a hall of famers. From 2016 to 2021 he has 209 in 450 good for 38 pts per 82.

Over his career marleau had 689 games out of~1800 where he produced at hall of very good level at 71 pt per 82 pace with most of this being lower scoring league.

Around 40% of his career was not good enough for the HHOF but could atleast/entertain the thought

The remaining 60% he was just a 2nd OA name who could not produce

 

[maddskkilz]

Compiler is understood as a a player that hit certain significant statistical milestones through career length without ever being considered one of the best at their position.

Marleau is the epitome of a compiler. Never a consistent PPG threat or dominant player but by virtue of playing 20+ seasons at a 40-70 point pace on average he reached 1k points and 500 goals.

 

[ScaredStreit]

If he wins a cup he'll have a better chance-but I still don't think it's a guarantee-but as of now he's in the hall of very good in my opinion. Forwards do having an easier time making the hall than other positions though.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

I guess we disagree on what a compiler is for the HHOF

Marleau from 1998 to 2004 had 327 pts in 558 good for 48 pts per 82. This was all DPE but he sucked hard even compared to other low producing stars who could get 65-70 pts still in the same era.

Then his only "great" stretch of his career was 2006 to 2014. He had 604 pts in 689 games good for 71 pts per 82. This was with peak Joe Thornton added and very high scoring league for 2 seasons in 2006 and 2007. This prime period stretch would likely not be enough to be a hall of famer even if instead of 669 games it was for 1300 games (see people now being skeptical of Backstrom and Giroux making it who were much better players than Marleau ever was)

Then he hung around for the games plaued record. His actual production and per game production worsened and his career totals dont look anywhere close to a hall of famers. From 2016 to 2021 he has 209 in 450 good for 38 pts per 82.

Over his career marleau had 689 games out of~1800 where he produced at hall of very good level at 71 pt per 82 pace with most of this being lower scoring league.

Around 40% of his career was not good enough for the HHOF but could atleast/entertain the thought

The remaining 60% he was just a 2nd OA name who could not produce

thats the literal definition of a compiler.

play forever at an average level and accumulate the milestones to be considered great without ever actually playing at that level.

 

[AfroThunder396]

He would not be the worst player in the hall and I think he's better than Turgeon. If it were up to me I would say no, but with the way the hall is trending I think he eventually gets in during a weak year.

 

[hamzarocks]

thats the literal definition of a compiler.

play forever at an average level and accumulate the milestones to be considered great without ever actually playing at that level.

To be a hall of famer even as a compiler you need stretches where you were a top end player.

Tavares has those from 2012 to 2018 but Marleau didn't really have any truly elite seasons or periods where he was a top 10/15 player to give credit for his back half of career where he compiled points to make him a hall of famer.

Marleau was never a great player in his career. Tavares was for most of his isles stint.

Shanahan is a hall of famer who compiled at the end of his career, Sundin you could maybe argue as well. Tavares in a similar mold, of an elite player who kept putting up good pt totals to get his his career numbers to look imoressive all time but he was hardly a top 30 player in the league season by season from 2019 to now

Marleau compiling ~1200 pts in ~1800 games just shows he was a high end 2nd liner for most of his career and not a guy who should even be in consideration for the hall of fame.

He is a worse player than a guy like David Krejci all time and Krejci wont make the hall of fame despite being very productive for a 2C and great in the playoffs even if he did not have a very lengthy career

 

[bossram]

Winning the Art and Hart in the same season is basically a 1 way ticket to the Hall. So my logic would lead you to believe that hardware is what is needed to get in.

They were pretty underwhelming Art Ross years (particularly for Daniel) and as another poster mentioned, JT missed out on an Art Ross by 1 point.

Given what his totals will be at the end of his career, if guys like the Sedins and Alfie are in, there is no legitimate argument to keep out Tavares.

 

[kp61c]

a borderline case. if there was a kiddie table i would let him in for sure. as for now, sorry, bud, adults only.

 

[Regal]

They were pretty underwhelming Art Ross years (particularly for Daniel) and as another poster mentioned, JT missed out on an Art Ross by 1 point.

Given what his totals will be at the end of his career, if guys like the Sedins and Alfie are in, there is no legitimate argument to keep out Tavares.

Henrik’s year wasn’t an underwhelming Art Ross, it was mid-pack. It wasn’t as good of an overall season, but was right in line with Ovechkin and Malkin’s wins from the previous two years in terms of production, and he beat out a fully healthy, prime Crosby (and a much better one than Tavares beat). Out of the 19 wins since 05-06, he’s tied for 10th in adjusted points. Benn’s Art Ross was arguably the weakest all time. The gap between him and Henrik in terms of adjusted points is larger than the gap between Henrik and Kucherov last year. Tavares’ 2nd place finish would have maybe been a 5th place finish in 09-10

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Once he helps the Leafs win a cup he’ll get in

 

[bossram]

Henrik’s year was not an underwhelming Art Ross by any measure. It wasn’t as good of an overall season, but was right in line with Ovechkin and Malkin’s wins from the previous two years in terms of production. Benn’s Art Ross was arguably the weakest all time. Tavares’ year would have maybe been a 5th place finish in 09-10

Henrik largely only won because Ovechkin missed 10 games. Daniel's was a fairly weak one relative most Art Ross seasons.

That's not saying they don't deserve to be in. I'm saying by the criteria already established by the Hall, they rightfully got in and so will/should Tavares.

 

[Wretched Oil]

Nope, even if he retires a leaf he's just not good enough

 

[Regal]

Henrik largely only won because Ovechkin missed 10 games. Daniel's was a fairly weak one relative most Art Ross seasons.

That's not saying they don't deserve to be in. I'm saying by the criteria already established by the Hall, they rightfully got in and so will/should Tavares.

Ovechkin’s season would have been one of the best Art Rosses since the lockout if he hadn’t missed those games (and kept scoring at his pace). Daniel’s wasn’t very strong but was still well above Benn’s, and thus Tavares’ “almost Art Ross”. I think Tavares gets in, but I don’t think their peaks are comparable because of how bad the top end of ‘15 was for forwards. Tavares doesn’t come close to the Art Ross in any other year, including Daniel’s. Adjusted totals put Daniel at 113 and Tavares at 96. And if we compare to the top 10, Daniel had a 35% lead on the 10th place scorer in his season, while Tavares had an 18% lead on the 10th place scorer. Tavares wasn’t unlucky he just missed the Art Ross by 1 point. He was lucky that he finished 2nd because the competition was that bad.

 

[bossram]

Ovechkin’s season would have been one of the best Art Rosses since the lockout if he hadn’t missed those games (and kept scoring at his pace). Daniel’s wasn’t very strong but was still well above Benn’s, and thus Tavares’ “almost Art Ross”. I think Tavares gets in, but I don’t think their peaks are comparable because of how bad the top end of ‘15 was for forwards. Tavares doesn’t come close to the Art Ross in any other year, including Daniel’s. Adjusted totals put Daniel at 113 and Tavares at 96. And if we compare to the top 10, Daniel had a 35% lead on the 10th place scorer in his season, while Tavares had an 18% lead on the 10th place scorer. Tavares wasn’t unlucky he just missed the Art Ross by 1 point. He was lucky that he finished 2nd because the competition was that bad.

Again, as everyone who can properly assess this situation has been saying, Tavares will get in because the HHOF voting committee have pretty well established that any player with over 500 goals or 1000 points will eventually get in. Tavares will end his career well over those totals. Therefore, he will get in.

Debating the minutiae of how to value a single major trophy win is missing the forest for the trees.

 

[sxvnert]

The standard now is so watered down that hitting 1000 points basically gets you in.

 

[authentic]

Considering hes currently at 492 goals and 1110 points (in a not yet finished 36 goal, 70 point season) thats a pretty conservative estimate on his end totals IMO. Barring injury, hes getting 600/1300.

Tavares is easily a HOFer. Close to top 5 in goals, nearly 35, as a slow skater in an league full of speed skaters is a testament to his talent, and all the career stats you listed made me realize he’s even better than I thought in career value.

Once again, players who had their peaks during low scoring eras will always be underrated.

 

[authentic]

The standard now is so watered down that hitting 1000 points basically gets you in.

In this era? Well, top 5 in points and top 3 in goals since his career began, with two Hart nominations on top, that’s a first ballot HOFer.

 

[authentic]

I always look at top ten. If a player is exclusively top five (as Tavares is) then I point it out as I did for him. Two top fives is good.

Okay. But how many have only two top 3 finishes and no other top tens?

I'm sorry, but that's more trivia that an argument for the HOF.

Hawerchuk finishes 2nd to Gretzky. Savard loses out an Art Ross to Lemieux and Gretz. At no point in time was Tavares as good as Savard was. Also, I'm not sure if I credited Hawerchuk properly. He actually has four top ten Hart noms. Two are top five with him coming second in one of those to Grez.

I'm not a big fan of era adjusted numbers. Monsters like Lemieux and Gretz along with their teammates kind of skew things. I am a big fan of looking at finishes. And as I pointed out, Tavares has five top tens. That's probably his best argument.

Okay, but again... look at them vs contemporaries. The others do better. They do better in Hart voting and point placements. Tavares has good goal finishes.

As I said, I think Tavares gets in. But he's more Turgeon than Savard/Hawerchuk/Sittler. And what really hurts him is that he's by far the worst of all those players in the postseason. Not only have his teams not advanced, he's really underperformed.

So sure, I think he gets in. But he has to wait a while.

Tavares has aged better as a scorer than all of them, that’s why his career adjusted numbers are better.