Is John Tavares a Hall of Fame Center?
- Thread starter BlueBull
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Silky Johnson
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I think that may be the worst way to look at it. One draft class may have 8 another may have 1. You should aggregate 5 or 7 draft classes (+/- 2 or 3 years) to get a better idea.
Giant Panda
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As with every answer... what's his legacy? What has he done for Hockey history to deserve to be immortalized? He doesn't have a golden goal moment, he doesn't have a decade of dominance, he hasn't revolutionized his position, he hasn't left a team to a holistic outcome, he didn't set any records.
'The decision' might be the closest he has to an immortalized moment but I don't think that should count.
To me, it's an easy no.
'The decision' might be the closest he has to an immortalized moment but I don't think that should count.
To me, it's an easy no.
Many people in this thread seem to think it is super hard to make the Hall of Fame. It isn't that hard at all.
I think Tavares definitely gets in.
His peak (multiple Hart Trophy nominations) is much higher than a player such as Pierre Turgeon (who just got inducted this year).
I think Tavares definitely gets in.
His peak (multiple Hart Trophy nominations) is much higher than a player such as Pierre Turgeon (who just got inducted this year).
Pre-NHL, he was the first 15 year old drafted into the OHL.
The Hype around him leading up to the 2009 draft was the most we'd seen since Crosby.
However, that doesn't really matter.
90% of the players in the Hockey Hall of Fame don't meet any of your criteria, yet they were still inducted.
Giant Panda
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The bad choices of the past shouldn't justify the bad decisions of the future.
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Rants Mulliniks
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Rants Mulliniks
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Giant Panda
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No, definitely not. It doesn't even eliminate a single nominee from the most recent draft class.
ICanMotteBelieveIt
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Rants Mulliniks
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Was reading through the Panarin for the HHOF thread and thought about this old thread.
With Tavares quietly passing 1100 points recently and coming up on 500 goals, adjusted goals/points lists are crazy for Tavares now. He's suffering as much as anyone from playing in a deadish puck era much of his career. Being only 34 and still having elite production has him projected to reach some pretty crazy end numbers. 600+ goals and 1300+ points are looking probable now.
As of right now, he ranks tied for 31 on the era-adjusted goals list and 40th on the era-adjusted points list.
The only players currently above him on both who are not in the HHOF are:
Ovi
Jagr
Crosby
Stamkos
Marleau
Malkin
Tavares will likely pass Malkin for goals early next year too. Marleau is probably the ultimate compiler and might only get voted in down the road as the "ironman" of hockey. Tavares also has a 2x Hart finalist peak that Marleau lacks.
Looks more and more like an absolute lock for the HHOF.
Daily faceoff did a good analysis a few months ago (and Tavares has been really rolling since then too)
Is John Tavares a Hall of Famer?
His comparables are guys like Sittler/Hawerchuk/Savard and even then, he looks strong compared to them.
Going to be an interesting next few years to see if he can maintain this level of high end consistency. Some strong playoff results would solidify him a little more (and would certainly also help a guy like Panarin) but theres a strong argument to be made he could retire today and still make it in.
With Tavares quietly passing 1100 points recently and coming up on 500 goals, adjusted goals/points lists are crazy for Tavares now. He's suffering as much as anyone from playing in a deadish puck era much of his career. Being only 34 and still having elite production has him projected to reach some pretty crazy end numbers. 600+ goals and 1300+ points are looking probable now.
As of right now, he ranks tied for 31 on the era-adjusted goals list and 40th on the era-adjusted points list.
The only players currently above him on both who are not in the HHOF are:
Ovi
Jagr
Crosby
Stamkos
Marleau
Malkin
Tavares will likely pass Malkin for goals early next year too. Marleau is probably the ultimate compiler and might only get voted in down the road as the "ironman" of hockey. Tavares also has a 2x Hart finalist peak that Marleau lacks.
Looks more and more like an absolute lock for the HHOF.
Daily faceoff did a good analysis a few months ago (and Tavares has been really rolling since then too)
Is John Tavares a Hall of Famer?
His comparables are guys like Sittler/Hawerchuk/Savard and even then, he looks strong compared to them.
Going to be an interesting next few years to see if he can maintain this level of high end consistency. Some strong playoff results would solidify him a little more (and would certainly also help a guy like Panarin) but theres a strong argument to be made he could retire today and still make it in.
Giant Panda
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I don't agree that lots of points plus long career = hall of fame.
The question should be, would the NHL be that different without him?
From a team perspective, he hasn't moved the needle significantly. No deep playoff runs, no team trophies, no international success that he was a major driver of.
From an individual perspective... He hasn't innovated the game. No periods of dominance, the game isn't different because of him.
From a game perspective... He hasn't had many game shaking stories. The free agency story is pretty much his defining legacy, that's not a big enough impact on hockey's history.
For me, it's an easy no.
I think this is a fair perspective, but ultimately the HOF has much lower standards than that with the Andreychuks and Housleys of the world
Lafleurs Guy
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Tavares isn't in that group.
Sittler 5 x Top 10 Hart voting, 5 x top ten points, 3 x top ten goals - Point per game in playoffs
Savard 3 x Top 10 Hart voting, 5 x top ten points, 3 x top ten goals - Over point per game in playoffs
Hawerchuk 3 x Top 10 Hart voting (finished 2nd to Gretz once), 4 x top 10 points, 3 x top 10 goals, point per game in playoffs
Savard and Hawerchuk had some truly elite seasons and Sittler was a consistent top ten Hart candidate. All did better in points relative to peers. And all were at least close to regular season performance in the postseason.
Pierre Turgeon is considered a weaker inductee. Let's see how he compares.
Turgeon 1 x Top 5 in Hart, 2 x top 10 in points, 1 x top 10 in goals, 72/82 in playoffs
Tavares 2 x Top 5 in Hart, 2 x top 10 in points, 5 x top 10 in goals, 61/82 in playoffs
Tavares is a lot closer to Turgeon than the others. His regular seasons are comparable but he has better goals relative to competition. His playoffs are a fair bit worse than his regular seasons as there's quite a dropoff there.
Tavares is a marginal candidate at this point. With 5 x top ten in goals, I'd probably put him in but I don't think he's a lock.
1specter
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Few things jump out at me about what you've said or about Tavares in general.
1 - The list of players you've shown, it doesn't mean there are those guys ahead of him in line for HOF. Kane for example. Tavares currently has 2 more goals than Kane, so his name wouldn't have shown up here, but he's clearly a HOF pick before Tavares, so not sure what is relevant about this list.
2 - Tavares "will likely" pass Malkin in goals early next year? I suppose it's possible, but Malkin in 21 goals ahead of Tavares, so not sure Tavares is going to score that much early in the season, not only that much, but that much more than Malkin as Malkin is still playing too.
3 - Tavares is a strange example for me....I'm just thinking about this year as an example, the stats are there, especially the goals, but it's a headscratcher. Most of the games I've watched, he seems to be invisible a lot of the time...very slow too....I think, maybe he gets in good positions and knocks home a lot of goals on the PP.....but his PP numbers aren't overwhelming.....it's strange, I guess he's just opportunistic, or he's better than I give him credit for.
Golden_Jet
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Dino is 20th all time in goals, and over 600, and 1200 points, and waited 11 years to get in.
Hockey Outsider
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Turgeon is a pretty good comparable for Tavares. Quoting myself from another thread:
There are some similarities between Tavares and Pierre Turgeon. Stylistically, it's only a marginal comparison (Turgeon was a much better skater; Tavares is stockier and a bit less adverse to contact). But there are some interesting connections - both were first overall picks, both played a portion of their career on the Islanders, both were top ten in scoring twice, both slightly preferred to shoot over pass (especially as centres), both were better producers at ES than on the powerplay, and both have been accused of lacking intensity.
I wouldn't describe either player as a compiler (in the sense that neither player hung around padding their career totals - like Dave Andreychuk). But, in both cases, their career totals exaggerate how good they were. (Believe it or not, from 2012 to 2023, Tavares was 4th in the NHL in scoring, behind only Kane, Crosy and Ovechkin). Both players had a lot of years as the 11th to 30th best scorer in the NHL. Both seemed content having (essentially) zero defensive responsibilities, playing with zero physicality, racking up points in the regular season, and in their 30's, letting another star centre take the heat (Modano/Sakic and Matthews).
Both players were briefly among the best in the NHL (but it was also due to circumstances). Turgeon has that huge 132 point season (a great year - but it was fortunate that his best season occurred during the most freakishly high scoring season in league history). Tavares nearly nabbed the Art Ross in 2015 (and was a Hart finalist) - but, as has been discussed elsewhere, this was one of the most dismal seasons in NHL history.
Neither player accomplished much in the postseason. Turgeon, I think, was a better playoff performer than he's generally given credit for. But it doesn't look great that his team only made it out of the first round six times (in 15 attempts) - and in four of those six years, he was no higher than 4th on the team in scoring. Tavares' playoff track record has been truly dismal. He had one excellent series (2015 against Florida). But overall, his production has been much lower in the spring. It doesn't reflect well on him that his old team started making deep playoff runs after he left, and the Leafs supposed "Cup parade" never materialized.
I think Turgeon was a slightly better player (he was more skilled, and some badly timed injuries robbed him of several top ten scoring finishes). But ultimately Tavares may end up having a better career. I'm not offended by either player being in the Hall (they're not Gillies/Andreychuk level inductions), but at the same time, doesn't feel like there's a ton of substance behind all those regular season points.
1specter
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That's great. He also played 19 seasons / until age 39. John is currently 34 and 16 seasons in, he will likely break 1200+ pts in the next year or two himself and will also be close to 600 goals by then. John's still playing at a high level and his career is far from over, barring a serious injury.
Golden_Jet
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Ya so he likely has to wait as well if he gets in.
He’s one of those borderline guys.
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