Is it still possible to draft someone like Datsyuk or Kaprizov in late rounds? | HFBoards - NHL Message Board and Forum for National Hockey League
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Is it still possible to draft someone like Datsyuk or Kaprizov in late rounds?

Kshahdoo

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Mar 23, 2008
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Kaprizov was about as good as Demidov in pre-draft years, but was picked in the 5th round, while Demidov was picked 5OA, and it looks like Montreal was really lucky to get him that late.

There are so much more scouting tools nowadays that it's really hard to overlook a kid with exceptional hockey talent. But hard doesn't mean impossible. Or does?
 
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Kshahdoo said:
Kaprizov was about as good as Demidov in pre-draft years, but was picked in the 5th round, while Demidov was picked 5OA, and it looks like Montreal was really lucky to get him that late.

There are so much more scouting tools nowadays that it's really hard to overlook a kid with exceptional hockey talent. But hard doesn't mean impossible. Or does?
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Was he really though?

That being said scouting is getting better but some players just really develop exponentially after being drafted and once in a while they do that on a Datsyuk or Kaprizov type of level but obviously exceptions prove the rule.
 
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Kaprizov being from the east may have meant fewer viewings but he was the first overall pick in the KHL draft. 2015 was a deep draft, Kap was a smaller player. Still, one would think there are Russian players that could be undervalued or underscouted just because of the problems. Wouldn't we all like to see the next Datsyuk.
 
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Saga of the Elk said:
Kaprizov being from the east may have meant fewer viewings but he was the first overall pick in the KHL draft. 2015 was a deep draft, Kap was a smaller player. Still, one would think there are Russian players that could be undervalued or underscouted just because of the problems. Wouldn't we all like to see the next Datsyuk.
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Look at 2020 draft. They are mostly 23 year old, good age to show some skill. Only one player out of all picked in 5-7 rounds has already played more than 100 NHL games, and it's Nils freaking Aman. Second best scorer of the draft has 12 points in 56 games.

If we take 2021 draft, then players picked in 5-7 rounds played 72 games. Combined.
 
2016- Hagel & Bratt were 6th rounders, neither Russian

So yes, it will happen, even without national bias. Size bias imo is still strong enough that it is inevitable (especially for kids who can have a few inches of growth post-draft, a la Hutson)

Even a big, tough, western Canadian boy like Mark Stone slipped due to injury. So yes, it will happen.
 
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There’s a portion of the league that is now a lot more attentive to Russian players than they were way back when. Carolina and Washington are 2 examples. They don’t care if the player is Russian or not, they draft the player they think is best. There are a couple of examples in this 2025 draft class of Russians still not getting a ton of attention.

Daniil Prokhorov and Alexander Zharovsky would be both mid 1st caliber talents all things being equal, but likely get selected in the late 1st early second because there’s a good portion of teams skiddish about drafting russians or don’t have enough eyes on russian players to make the distinction
 
The Devilish Buffoon said:
2016- Hagel & Bratt were 6th rounders, neither Russian

So yes, it will happen, even without national bias. Size bias imo is still strong enough that it is inevitable (especially for kids who can have a few inches of growth post-draft, a la Hutson)

Even a big, tough, western Canadian boy like Mark Stone slipped due to injury. So yes, it will happen.
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It's not about national bias, though, it's just I remember Russian players better... So 2016... But isn't it a little bit too long ago? I mean nowadays, not in 2016.
 
With how much teams focus on scouting now, it has become harder, but as others have mentioned some players have different development curves. And in some rare cases, players can hit growth spurts after being drafted which can change what they bring to the table.

However, I would guess its more likely to see this happen more with D-men than forwards. Specifically due to the late development curve.
 
According to Red Wings lore, Detroit believed they were the only team to see Datsyuk play prior to picking him.

Back then if you didn’t see a player play live, you didn’t see them. And I believe watching Datsyuk play back then was a logistical nightmare that required multiple flights.

That situation would be way less likely today with how widespread video scouting is. I believe a tool like Instat would let you watch most of the MHL players shifts in the comfort of your home if you wanted, for example.
 
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I think status/off ice might be the primary reasons over talent/missed viewings going forward.

Like a player who has talent but is just going through the motion and reportedly thinking about quitting or has reported that they will never leave home. You don't want to flush a high pick to a player who already has huge chance of not making it for reasons other than talent. The other scenario might be injuries where a player is high calibre, but a catastrophic injury of some sort means they may never play the game again (but against the odds like a Regehr situation...).
 
Frk It said:
According to Red Wings lore, Detroit believed they were the only team to see Datsyuk play prior to picking him.

Back then if you didn’t see a player play live, you didn’t see them. And I believe watching Datsyuk play back then was a logistical nightmare that required multiple flights.

That situation would be way less likely today with how widespread video scouting is. I believe a tool like Instat would let you watch most of the MHL players shifts in the comfort of your home if you wanted, for example.
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It's kinda funny that part of the reason Jamie Benn didn't get many views in his draft year was that it was a pain to see his BCHL team. Scouts thought it was a better use of time to catch a WHL game instead and see multiple prospects.

And then Benn is also an interesting example in that he apparently was out of shape and baseball was a viable alternative. Easy to take for granted that many of the teenaged draftees aren't in peak physical shape.
 
It’s less likely a clear top end prospect falls through the cracks these days, but players still develop at completely different rates. We’ll always have stars from the late rounds and undrafted by the nature of that fact.
 
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It will occasionally happen as it always has because development isn't linear.

Your two examples are 17 years apart. 17 years from now is 2042.

Will there be a late round star at some point between now and 2042? Almost certainly.
 
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