Post-Game Talk: Is it a cruel irony that PDO was created by an Oilers fan?

[mcdingdong]

Yeah I broke it down for you but feel free to disregard any of the information in the post. Or you could respond to it. 2024 NHL is all about parity. Capped league, league managing games, In the East hardly anything separating 10 teams in the East. About 6pts. The Curve in the East is basically that most of the clubs have the same record. Only truly bad club is Buffalo. EVERY other club in the east is at least in the curve. The skew is only Buffalo. You know what I'm saying, that little separates the clubs and degree of difficulty in NHL games has never been LESS differentiated.

Pickard hasn't really seen enough rubber lately for his save % to be immutable. Pickard was .909 just a season agf course you don't mention Pickards GAA being much better than Skinner or that essentially he's tied with Skinner in Save % and had better most of the season.

in terms of better Pickard has better mobility, better puck handling, better at reaction stops. He's quicker. Of course the one drawback is size. He blocks appreciably less net than Skinner. But in terms of fundamentals Pickard is better than Skinner. That isn't at all obtuse to say that. Its absurd not to recognize it.

Thought I clearly addressed your parity claim when I reminded you that the real dogs of the NHL, that make up > half of Pickard's games, do not qualify as "in the curve." And none that I am referring to even play in the East, so it is baffling why you continue to refer to the logjam in the Eastern conference. His opponent quality isn't remotely close to Skinner's, it's asinine to try and appeal to parity to claim otherwise.

Skinner was .905 last season, not an appreciable difference, again against much better comp. He also played 2.5x more games. Pickard would absolutely crumble under that workload, because as you yourself have stated, he has to work much harder for those same results.

Bolded: this is why he isn't a starter, and why small starters are exceedingly rare. Not complicated when you think about it. I will say he does handle the puck much better than Skinner, but he's not Mike Smith either.

For what it's worth, Pickard trails Skinner in basically all advanced stats, both in aggregate and on a per 60 basis, some of them pretty significantly. Not sure how you value those but thought I would throw that in the mix as well.

EDIT: as I didn't address the GAA comment specifically the first go around. Pickard's GAA:xGAA is actually worse than Skinners by 0.17. Though they are both bad in that stat relative to league leaders.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Thought I clearly addressed your parity claim when I reminded you that the real dogs of the NHL, that make up > half of Pickard's games, do not qualify as "in the curve." And none that I am referring to even play in the East, so it is baffling why you continue to refer to the logjam in the Eastern conference. His opponent quality isn't remotely close to Skinner's, it's asinine to try and appeal to parity to claim otherwise.

Skinner was .905 last season, not an appreciable difference, again against much better comp. He also played 2.5x more games. Pickard would absolutely crumble under that workload, because as you yourself have stated, he has to work much harder for those same results.

Bolded: this is why he isn't a starter, and why small starters are exceedingly rare. Not complicated when you think about it. I will say he does handle the puck much better than Skinner, but he's not Mike Smith either.

For what it's worth, Pickard trails Skinner in basically all advanced stats, both in aggregate and on a per 60 basis, some of them pretty significantly. Not sure how you value those but thought I would throw that in the mix as well.

Its simply inaccurate that half of Pickards games have been against dogs. He's played Chicago twice, yes. One against SJ. All the other clubs Pickard played are either good, or in the curve. You keep ignoring that very little is separating that bulk of teams. Theres very little differentiation in NHL other than that there are around 8-10 good teams, then the rest, and then around 4 teams that are pretty much out of it. The bulk are in the curve. We're 50 games into the schedule and vast majority of clubs could either make or miss playoffs. You think theres appreciable difference in level of difficulty of opponents? Most nights there isn't. It should be moot point anyway. Only a few clubs could even be considered as good as the Oilers skaters. Yet Skinner has a poor record against clubs currently in playoffs. His record against those clubs is worse than Pickards is.

I will grant point that Pickard probably can't start as many games. Its not a known, who knows, but I'll cede the point anyway.

In honesty I don't think either goalie is the answer either. We're agreed in that. Just the point is the Oil picked Pickard out of nowhere for free. he's an easily available player. Skinner should be considerably better than him. That its even close should be unsettling.

 

[mcdingdong]

Its simply inaccurate that half of Pickards games have been against dogs. He's played Chicago twice, yes. One against SJ. All the other clubs Pickard played are either good, or in the curve. You keep ignoring that very little is separating that bulk of teams. Theres very little differentiation in NHL other than that there are around 8-10 good teams, then the rest, and then around 4 teams that are pretty much out of it. The bulk are in the curve. We're 50 games into the schedule and vast majority of clubs could either make or miss playoffs. You think theres appreciable difference in level of difficulty of opponents? Most nights there isn't. It should be moot point anyway. Only a few clubs could even be considered as good as the Oilers skaters. Yet Skinner has a poor record against clubs currently in playoffs. His record against those clubs is worse than Pickards is.

I will grant point that Pickard probably can't start as many games. Its not a known, who knows, but I'll cede the point anyway.

In honesty I don't think either goalie is the answer either. We're agreed in that. Just the point is the Oil picked Pickard out of nowhere for free. he's an easily available player. Skinner should be considerably better than him. That its even close should be unsettling.

We definitely agree that neither seem to be the answer.

One last point for quality of opponent, for what it's worth:
Pickard xGAA: 2.26 (#1 in the entire league for goalies GP>/=10!!)
Skinner xGAA: 2.62 (#12, same filter)

That, to me, says 2 things:
1. The Oilers are very, very good.
2. Pickard plays against significantly poorer competition.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Well...just because a group of posters can scream louder (and more often) than everybody else doesnt mean they are right. No nuance at all...black and white perspective even when the team wins.

I have been on this board for over 20 years and IMO the signal to noise ratio on here has dropped significantly the last few years.
Just my opinion.

You keep bringing up this whole “nuance” thing.

Please explain. Doesn’t matter how much nuance you add to it, a .760 goaltending performance is bad.

You’ve also continually tried to blame Bouchard for skinner letting in a 60 foot unscreened shot.

 

[chaser17]

3 goals on 14 shots isn't ideal but I mean one goal was a backdoor 2 on 1 tap in and another was a breakaway rebound where nobody covered a guy in the slot. The point shot wasn't great but don't think he ever saw it.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

3 goals on 14 shots isn't ideal but I mean one goal was a backdoor 2 on 1 tap in and another was a breakaway rebound where nobody covered a guy in the slot. The point shot wasn't great but don't think he ever saw it.

Wasn’t great? It was terrible, if he can’t see a wrister from the point with no screen, maybe he’s worse than everyone thinks.

 

[chaser17]

Wasn’t great? It was terrible, if he can’t see a wrister from the point with no screen, maybe he’s worse than everyone thinks.

Thompson whiffed on Perrys goal, maybe we should trade for him so this fanbase can bitch and moan about every other goal he lets in too! There aren't any better goalies available so may as well support the guy we got rather than run him out of town like every other goalie.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Thompson whiffed on Perrys goal, maybe we should trade for him so this fanbase can bitch and moan about every other goal he lets in too! There aren't any better goalies available so may as well support the guy we got rather than run him out of town like every other goalie.

He also whiffed on Draisatl's goal too.

 

[Drivesaitl]

3 goals on 14 shots isn't ideal but I mean one goal was a backdoor 2 on 1 tap in and another was a breakaway rebound where nobody covered a guy in the slot. The point shot wasn't great but don't think he ever saw it.

The breakaway rebound was a partial breakaway with the player having difficulty corrallng the puck but who somehow got the puck through Skinner who was in poor position, not properly set, and who was then way out of position for the empty net that ensued.

In the case of the Winning goal the fault is Skinners for somehow not getting the first shot. It was a good play made by Dubois to spring the player. Those happen. The Oilers create those kind of open looks all the time. Other goalies make stops on them.

Skinner was beat 4X on first 10SOG and among the 3 HDSC the Caps had. In other words Skinner was beat more times than HDSC allowed, which is a sad joke.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Don't worry, the next goalie will definitely the be the one.

You're so close to getting to the real issue. So close.

Oh I've been there before. McD and Drai have given welcome reprieve from that sort of focus. Even in the case of Drai the org found this guy. a rare good pick. The only other marquee players we've selected were first picks.

 

[guymez]

You keep bringing up this whole “nuance” thing.

Please explain. Doesn’t matter how much nuance you add to it, a .760 goaltending performance is bad.

You’ve also continually tried to blame Bouchard for skinner letting in a 60 foot unscreened shot.

This is going around in cricles and Im having to repeat myself over and over again.
Go back and read my posts if you are really that interested.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

This is going around in cricles and Im having to repeat myself over and over again.
Go back and read my posts if you are really that interested.

I’ve read them, and you’ve been blaming Bouchard for a net side battle for skinner not being able to stop a low danger chance

And the only thing you’ve continually said is there’s nuance and it’s not black and white.

 

[guymez]

I’ve read them, and you’ve been blaming Bouchard for a net side battle for skinner not being able to stop a low danger chance

If you are asking these questions then you clealry didnt read them closly enough.
I have clearly stated my position.
Time to move on from this circular argument.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

If you are asking these questions then you clealry didnt read them closly enough.
I have clearly stated my position.
Time to move on.

I think your position was Bouchard was square dancing with the player instead of creating a lane, yet you fail to recognize there was a clear lane for the goalie to see the shot.

 

[guymez]

I think your position was Bouchard was square dancing with the player instead of creating a lane, yet you fail to recognize there was a clear lane for the goalie to see the shot.

I addressed that already.
I mentioned that Skinner didnt track the puck properly. He went high to track the puck and the Caps player shot (along the ice) at that second. Very bad decision by Skinner. I also talked about how Skinners puck tracking should be prioritized.
So I did talk about that but it doesnt excuse the passive play on Bouchards part.
He was essentially going around in circles with the Caps player in Skinners kitchen.
He didnt even try to move him. It was a soft/passive attempt on his part.
Speaking of square dancing...I am not interested in pulling a Bouchard and going around and around in cricles on this.
I just dont think its particularily productive.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

How does Arvidsson escape criticism for that abysmal turnover on GA#1?

 

[K1984]

How does Arvidsson escape criticism for that abysmal turnover on GA#1?

It's the buried headline.

Once again we had a lead and the flow of the game under our control, and once again we handed it back with a stupid, preventable turnover to put them right back into it. Had he just not done that the game was starting to feel like one where we get another before the end of the first and kind of salt it away. Then none of us are talking about the goaltending.

Instead he just had to do that, flip the game on its head, and let them right into it.

 

[guymez]

How does Arvidsson escape criticism for that abysmal turnover on GA#1?

He shouldnt be escaping criticism, I like Arvidsson but that was a really dumb play.

This teams biggest weakness when they have puck possession (aside from over passing) is that they make too many bad decisions approaching the other teams blueline.
That is not what championship teams do...championship teams make the simple/safe play...not the high risk low reward play.

They really need to stop this high risk low reward nonsense and manage the puck better.

 

[K1984]

He shouldnt be escaping criticism, I like Ardvidsson but that was a really dumb play.

This teams biggest weakness when they have puck possession (aside from over passing) is that they manage the puck terribly appraoching the other teams blueline.
That is not what championship teams do...they make the simple safe play...not the high risk low reward play.

With our newfound defensive acuity, it would be nice to become the team that people talk about in the sense of "don't let them go up 1-0, they don't give you anything to come back with."

I don't even feel like that status is far off, we just need to not do what Arvidsson and a slew of others tend to do on this team at the worst time. Was an issue in the playoffs last year too. Game 7 against the Nucks, Game 5 against the Stars, and Game 5 against the Panthers were all a similar version of the same thing. Own the game, then do something monumentally stupid to give them life, then they push on us and make it close.

Need to have a safe word or something on the bench that translates to "don't be f***ing dumb, just play north/south and be on the right side of the puck."

 

[guymez]

With our newfound defensive acuity, it would be nice to become the team that people talk about in the sense of "don't let them go up 1-0, they don't give you anything to come back with."

I don't even feel like that status is far off, we just need to not do what Arvidsson and a slew of others tend to do on this team at the worst time. Was an issue in the playoffs last year too. Game 7 against the Nucks, Game 5 against the Stars, and Game 5 against the Panthers were all a similar version of the same thing. Own the game, then do something monumentally stupid to give them life, then they push on us and make it close.

Need to have a safe word or something on the bench that translates to "don't be f***ing dumb, just play north/south and be on the right side of the puck."

Excellent post...you are spot on with this. Especially the highlighted portions.
The issue is that I see the team leaders...Draisaitl and McDavid...doing the same thing from time to time.
So I agree with you completely...those types of plays have to be totally eliminated.
It shouldnt even be an option at all and to be honest I am a little surprised its still happening under Knoblauch.
I actually LOL'ed at the safe word word idea. Its a great idea and I would love to hear a bench mic during that coversation.

I also agree that the team isnt that far off. I just rarely get the sense (certainly not often enough) with this team that they are going to shut down the game. I would like to expereince that more often especially in important games like the games you mentioned against Vancouver, Dallas and Florida.
I keep waiting for that stupid mistake/high risk play, I guess its a hard thing to deprogram.

 

[K1984]

Excellent post...you are spot on with this. Especially the highlighted portions.
The issue is that I see the team leaders...Draisaitl and McDavid...doing the same thing from time to time.
So I agree with you completely...those types of plays have to be totally eliminated.
It shouldnt even be an option at all and to be honest I am a little surprised its still happening under Knoblauch.
I actually LOL'ed at the safe word word idea. Its a great idea and I would love to hear a bench mic during that coversation.

I also agree that the team isnt that far off. I just rarely get the sense (certainly not often enough) with this team that they are going to shut down the game. I would like to expereince that more often especially in important games like the games you mentioned against Vancouver, Dallas and Florida.
I keep waiting for that stupid mistake/high risk play, I guess its a hard thing to deprogram.

This is the last aspect of our team game that needs to be addressed and rounded out. All teams still look at us with the thought of "if we just get one we might be able to lean on them and get back." Need to start taking steps to address the deficiencies in our game that are allowing that to happen.

 

[oXo Cube]

How does Arvidsson escape criticism for that abysmal turnover on GA#1?

In what universe has he escaped criticism for that? It sure isn't this one. The major frustration with the goaltending is that when our skaters do make the occasional mistake the goalies almost never come up with a save for them. Meanwhile the Oilers lose games strictly due to heroic goaltending efforts like twice a month.

Now the Oilers have invested almost no cap money into their goaltending so of course part of that is you get what you pay for but it should be no surprise people are clamoring for an upgrade.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Excellent post...you are spot on with this. Especially the highlighted portions.
The issue is that I see the team leaders...Draisaitl and McDavid...doing the same thing from time to time.
So I agree with you completely...those types of plays have to be totally eliminated.
It shouldnt even be an option at all and to be honest I am a little surprised its still happening under Knoblauch.
I actually LOL'ed at the safe word word idea. Its a great idea and I would love to hear a bench mic during that coversation.

I also agree that the team isnt that far off. I just rarely get the sense (certainly not often enough) with this team that they are going to shut down the game. I would like to expereince that more often especially in important games like the games you mentioned against Vancouver, Dallas and Florida.
I keep waiting for that stupid mistake/high risk play, I guess its a hard thing to deprogram.

Draisaitl and McDavid are bad culprits of not making the safe play especially when they’re playing together.

I feel like they’re both much better defensively when running their own lines, when playing together it seems like they just outscore their problems

 

[oXo Cube]

Draisaitl and McDavid are bad culprits of not making the safe play especially when they’re playing together.

I feel like they’re both much better defensively when running their own lines, when playing together it seems like they just outscore their problems

While this is true, I've never understood the problem. If you outscore the other team. and they do by a lot, I really don't care how you do it and neither should anyone else.

The real issue with stacking them together is we have no other possession drivers on the team so the rest of the lineup spends the whole game getting caved in.

 

[K1984]

Draisaitl and McDavid are bad culprits of not making the safe play especially when they’re playing together.

I feel like they’re both much better defensively when running their own lines, when playing together it seems like they just outscore their problems

This season McDavid has been a problem in his own end on his own line. He's stepped way backwards in this area.

There have been a few games where I've been begging for them to be put together to end the defensive gong show on line 1.