Post-Game Talk: Is it a cruel irony that PDO was created by an Oilers fan?

[FiveFourteenSixOne]

Bouchard had the player...lol
What exactly was Bouchard doing? I dont even think he knows.


I hear you.
Its making these PGT threads almost unreadable.

Maybe its a sign that the Oilers lack a competent starting goaltender? If every f***ing post-game thread, win or lose has reason to pile on Skinner perhaps the team has a problem between the pipes?

 

[FiveFourteenSixOne]

And what blows my mind is the analytics and data points show this too. Skinner defenders literally have have nothing to point to as evidence. Nothing

Oh that blows my mind too.

Based on the eye-test, how does Skinner "look"? -- f***ing terrible.

Based on traditional stats, how does Skinner do? -- f***ing bad

Based on advanced stats, how does Skinner rank? -- Holy f*** me sake, Houston we have a problem.

 

[oXo Cube]

Good thing Skinner has been north of .900 for the last 3 months like “everyone is saying.”

Doesn't this kinda make the point, though? When the Oilers get league average goaltending or better they win games at a rate so far ahead of the rest of the league it's almost funny.

It makes Skinner's wildly inconsistent play very frustrating.

 

[Canovin]

The Oilers can win the cup with Stuart. Just not as the starter. Go get a real starter like Gibson

 

[russ99]

The Oilers are riding it out with Skinner because if they didn’t to them it would seem like admitting that they made a mistake drafting him.

He is not a starter an NHL franchise serious about winning a Cup(s) rides with. Pride/ego is why they don’t actively search for other options and it’s already cost them twice.

No, they're riding it out with Skinner because he's an inexpensive average starter who goes on hot streaks and they don't have cap space (now and when Connor and Bouchard sign) to spend on a above average goalie in FA or trade.

Good teams do this, find players who can fill a gap, but not at an exceptional level, when assets and cap space won't let you do different.

Also Rodrigue is following the same path, so he'll be backup next year and could take over if he shows more than Skinner, also at a favorable cap cost.

If you want a top 5 goalie, you're going to have to tear up the roster.

 

[russ99]

BTW: PDO is a canard, trying to quantify puck luck is decidedly anti-scientific, and it's used as a crutch when players and teams are underperforming. You want a better shot percentage? Take higher percentage shots, not play the same way and expecting things to just regress to the mean.

 

[Canovin]

No, they're riding it out with Skinner because he's an inexpensive average starter who goes on hot streaks and they don't have cap space (now and when Connor and Bouchard sign) to spend on a above average goalie in FA or trade.

Good teams do this, find players who can fill a gap, but not at an exceptional level, when assets and cap space won't let you do different.

Also Rodrigue is following the same path, so he'll be backup next year and could take over if he shows more than Skinner, also at a favorable cap cost.

If you want a top 5 goalie, you're going to have to tear up the roster.

The salary cap is looking like it's going to be 97M. That's 9M increase from 88M. The Oilers only need 3.5M for McDavid and maybe another 4.5M for Bouchard. Jeff Skinner and James Neal dead cap is coming off the books. We have the cap space for someone like Gibson. Anaheim most likely retaining on Gibson as well.

And if we really have to, Kane has a M-NTC we can ship him out next year

 

[K1984]

Skinner is .899 on the season and his longest run of .900 games in a row this season has been 6games. On this team he should be getting that vast majority of games. Many of the shots he see's are not even scoring attempts. Teams dump everything at him hoping for a rebound.

I guess you accept mediocrity. I don't.

Oilers defend better than any team I've been seeing in the league. Allow hardly any HDSC. Still Skinner with mediocre stats.

When the numbers don't align with what you want them to be, start twisting.

 

[McDNicks17]

BTW: PDO is a canard, trying to quantify puck luck is decidedly anti-scientific, and it's used as a crutch when players and teams are underperforming. You want a better shot percentage? Take higher percentage shots, not play the same way and expecting things to just regress to the mean.

It's not really meant to quantify puck luck. That's just one of the simpler ways that it gets explained.

 

[oXo Cube]

BTW: PDO is a canard, trying to quantify puck luck is decidedly anti-scientific, and it's used as a crutch when players and teams are underperforming. You want a better shot percentage? Take higher percentage shots, not play the same way and expecting things to just regress to the mean.

-Quote from Canucks fan in December 2023

 

[K1984]

Doesn't this kinda make the point, though? When the Oilers get league average goaltending or better they win games at a rate so far ahead of the rest of the league it's almost funny.

It makes Skinner's wildly inconsistent play very frustrating.

Until he actually goes on a run of bad play, he's been pretty consistent since October. Relative to pretty much any other goalie, he has not been inconsistent since November 1.

What I've learned is that any statistic or result Skinner produces that is at all positive is just met with "ya well that's what he SHOULD be doing because this is basically the greatest team of all time defensively." Some seem to truly feel that if we just plugged and played a random goalie here we would basically be undefeated.

Skinner is a mediocre, middle of the road goalie and he's getting mediocre, middle of the road goalie results on a team as strong as the Oilers.

 

[oobga]

Up and down toilet lid Skinner is a proverbial bomb that can go off any time and does several times a season. 2 versions of him one that plays composed if the Oilers are playing perfect hockey in front of him and limiting everything. On the nights or even periods that the Oilers are not sharp opponents rattle off 3 or more goals in first period if the team doesn't come out sharp. As I've stated often most teams have goalies that let in maybe 1 or 2 goals if the team is playing lousy. They keep their club in the games. Even tonight Kuemper saves his team from two uninspired periods where they had nothing going, only allows 1 goal despite the Panthers having the run of play, and Kings play one period and win 2-1. When do we ever get that?

Trouble with all this is that goaltending as suspect as ours eventually tires out a club. Even this season after a long postseason you can see several players sucking air already. Guys like Hyman, Nuge several others all having fall off seasons and this made worse because the team has to work incredibly hard not to allow anything as our #1 is so suspect in net. Other clubs can lay down for games and still get some results. They can rest for a week and let goalies mop up everything. This team never gets that kind of break.

I do fault our players a bit for it, cause you would like your guys to just keep battling through anything, but for sure, this team has shown how much in the dumps they get when they start to think no matter how hard they play their goalie is just gonna give the game away anyways.

Even if I do give some blame to players though, there is no getting around how near impossible it is to win a cup with even below average goaltending. We just had a non-goalie on a losing team win the Conn Smythe. An absolutely insane event that we may not see again for decades. Skinner I think also had the lowest sav% for a starter in a finals in over 2 decades, so also pretty rare event.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Maybe its a sign that the Oilers lack a competent starting goaltender? If every f***ing post-game thread, win or lose has reason to pile on Skinner perhaps the team has a problem between the pipes?

Goalie gets beat by 4 out of the first 10 sogs in a hockey game. Couldn't possibly be a problem. I don't care if the team you are facing is 1972 circa Red Army theres no way a competent goalie should be getting beat this bad, and especially when a couple weren't even HDSC.

But yeah. Obviously the focus should be on goaltending and almost everybody seeing that. I see about two posters still defending Skinner. Everybody else thumbsdown on him at this point.

 

[Drivesaitl]

When the numbers don't align with what you want them to be, start twisting.

The number is .899 save % and a not good GAA on a team that takes few penalties and is one of the best defensive clubs in the league that tends to dominate puck possession. A goalie between the pipes here should be able to reach better stat lines and results.

Skinner is somehow managing to be 18-15L playing for one of the best clubs in the league. He has Calgary Flames type Win % while playing behind McD and Drai. Inexplicable in itself. Could you imagine how exposed this same Skinner would be playing on an average club? How abysmal would his win % be then?

 

[Drivesaitl]

I do fault our players a bit for it, cause you would like your guys to just keep battling through anything, but for sure, this team has shown how much in the dumps they get when they start to think no matter how hard they play their goalie is just gonna give the game away anyways.

Even if I do give some blame to players though, there is no getting around how near impossible it is to win a cup with even below average goaltending. We just had a non-goalie on a losing team win the Conn Smythe. An absolutely insane event that we may not see again for decades. Skinner I think also had the lowest sav% for a starter in a finals in over 2 decades, so also pretty rare event.

The Oilers battle and are more consistent than any team in the league. You could go through any other club, even Washington and they've had stinker games. The Oilers get sunk at times if they even have a stinker period. So many instances this year and last where Skinner has given up 3 or more goals just in one period. Other contending teams that rarely see that unless they completely no show a game. Which teams have done a fair bit this season. Lots of instances of good teams sleepwalking through games and so evident. We tend to get zero of that here. Almost every night our goalies are seeing a credible effort from the Oilers.

 

[frag2]

Basically anybody here is saying that if we had even an average #1 then our record would be stellar. To wit when the Oilers have even got .900 save % out of goalies this season they are winning almost all those games.

Holding consistency? This is pretty much illusion as well. When the Oilers spend weeks to months hardly allowing scoring chances Skinner is adequate. As it is even shots from the point, really any of them that get through are dangerous with Skinner in net. Just one of the so many things that he's crap at.

Skinner is not a mid level starter. You'd have to be dim to think that. Its an "absurd" take.

Pretty much the message the past 2.5 seasons...we just need league average goaltending and we'd be tops in the league. But because every shot is a HDSC it seems, we're not quite there yet...

 

[Drivesaitl]

Something interesting to consider that Skinner is 49th in league now in EV save %. Competent contender clubs for the most part are seeing save % well above that at least from their #1. Skinner is in a camp with goalies that play on very bad clubs and that give up tons of chances. Theres no way a goalie on this club should have this ordinary a save % EV.

 

[mcdingdong]

These are NHL clubs in a cap league that strives to have parity either through reverse draft or game management. Theres no automatic wins in the league anymore. You have to show up. Pickard has faced Minny twice, jersey, Had to come in against Winnipeg to mop up and has played Montreal who are in a playoff spot. In anycase Pickard is cleaing up in these games. Among his starts when the Oilers have actually scored a goal (not get shutout) Pickard is 11-2. he's hardly blown any result all season. He also played Columbus to 3 goals. The same club that set Stuart Skinner on fire pumping in 6 goals.

To wit Skinner has lost as many games to non playoff clubs than Pickard has.

Sure Skinner is getting tougher starts. he's not exactly doing great with that. He's lost to Van, Pitts, CBJ, CGY. he got blown out of the rink by Pitt and CBJ.

More than a dozen of the W's that Skinner does have are against teams that are out of a playoff spot. 13 to be exact. 13 of Skinners wins (he only has 18 total) are against clubs currently out of playoffs.

Not everything is as you make it. Skinner has a losing record against playoff clubs. Skinner is around 5W 7L 3OT against playoff clubs this season.

Finally, its misleading to categorize games as easy or hard and for example only 5pts separates 8 teams that are fighting for two WC spots in the east. The teams are hardly differentiated, they are basically the same level of difficulty. In the east particularly parity has arrived in spades. its basically Washington, and then everybody else.

And yet he has a worse sv% than Skinner. Look, nowhere in my post did I say Skinner is the guy I want to have in the net for playoffs. But saying Pickard is better is absolutely obtuse. He hasn't been able to hang onto a job in the NHL consistently since like 2017. 5 teams prior to the Oilers had a look at him when he was more in his prime, and in his later stops he couldn't even hang as a backup. I am all for upgrading the position and have stated so several times. But throwing up an .897 when half of your games played are NSH (who we absolutely own even when they aren't a complete mess like this season), CHI (the biggest doormat in the league), etc. is lol bad. These aren't "same level of difficulty" lmao.

Nobody in here is happy with our goaltending situation. I've defended Skinner in the past because I thought with some more runway he could increase his consistency. Clearly that hasn't happened and we are in a tight SC window. We need an upgrade at the position, full stop - it's certainly not running with Pickard though.

 

[Drivesaitl]

And yet he has a worse sv% than Skinner. Look, nowhere in my post did I say Skinner is the guy I want to have in the net for playoffs. But saying Pickard is better is absolutely obtuse. He hasn't been able to hang onto a job in the NHL consistently since like 2017. 5 teams prior to the Oilers had a look at him when he was more in his prime, and in his later stops he couldn't even hang as a backup. I am all for upgrading the position and have stated so several times. But throwing up an .897 when half of your games played are NSH (who we absolutely own even when they aren't a complete mess like this season), CHI (the biggest doormat in the league), etc. is lol bad. These aren't "same level of difficulty" lmao.

Nobody in here is happy with our goaltending situation. I've defended Skinner in the past because I thought with some more runway he could increase his consistency. Clearly that hasn't happened and we are in a tight SC window. We need an upgrade at the position, full stop - it's certainly not running with Pickard though.

2024 NHL is all about parity. Capped league, league managing games, In the East hardly anything separating 10 teams in the East. About 6pts. The Curve in the East is basically that most of the clubs have the same record. Only truly bad club is Buffalo. EVERY other club in the east is at least in the curve. The skew is only Buffalo. You know what I'm saying, that little separates the clubs and degree of difficulty in NHL games has never been LESS differentiated. In the West theres basically two doormats. SJ and Chicago. Every other team is still in contention and not a whole lot separating a lot of clubs. Hell Nashville after a horrid start may actually contend for a WC spot still. Only 10pts off it as we speak.

Pickard hasn't really seen enough rubber lately for his save % to be immutable. Pickard was .909 just a season agf course you don't mention Pickards GAA being much better than Skinner or that essentially he's tied with Skinner in Save % and had better most of the season.

in terms of better Pickard has better mobility, better puck handling, better at reaction stops. He's quicker, beter skater. Of course the one drawback is size. He blocks appreciably less net than Skinner. But in terms of fundamentals Pickard is better than Skinner. That isn't at all obtuse to say that. Its absurd not to recognize it.

NHL is generally a poorly run and managed league. Its common for players to be disregarded and not get their chance. Decent goalies often don't get that plum spot that Skinner got. On most NHL clubs Skinner wouldn't even be getting this spot.

 

[guymez]

Maybe its a sign that the Oilers lack a competent starting goaltender? If every f***ing post-game thread, win or lose has reason to pile on Skinner perhaps the team has a problem between the pipes?

Well...just because a group of posters can scream louder (and more often) than everybody else doesnt mean they are right. No nuance at all...black and white perspective even when the team wins.

I have been on this board for over 20 years and IMO the signal to noise ratio on here has dropped significantly the last few years.
Just my opinion.