Post-Game Talk: Is it a cruel irony that PDO was created by an Oilers fan?

[Missing smitty]

Sure, but I mean, need a save right.


How do you mean? Their offense wasn't great tonight, they didn't push hard enough for better opportunities. Stu was flat out not good enough, but neither was the finishing.

Or Thompson did his job very well and Skinner couldn't match the guy making way less money than him...

 

[FlameChampion]

He honestly shouldn’t be a third liner. He is a 4th liner that looked good in the playoffs.
He should be on the 4th line with Philp and Perry/Kapenen

Yeah Janmark is really a fourth liner. Henrique and Brown should be third liners based on their past but they really aren’t this year. I really thought Henrique would be more productive than he has been. Hes smart but I think he needs to play with more dynamic/smart players to get more out of him. With Brown obviously he just can’t get back on track after his injury. None of the three can really elevate each other. It’s pretty much a fourth liner at this point.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

No one is claiming that PDO is entirely attributable to luck, only that its extreme outliers are so improbable to sustain and repeat that you can attribute such a team's extreme success or failure, at least in big part, to luck.

Sure, the Canucks played well last year, but the production of many of their players was highly improbable compared to other players on other teams with similar ice time and that generated a similar amount of chances. This year that has corrected itself and the Canucks are mediocre despite having largely the same roster.

This year nobody expected the Caps to be this high up the standings and it's the same thing. Let them, like the Canucks, regress to middle-of-the-pack PDO and they will fall through the standings despite having similar underlying numbers.

Some people (like Canucks fans) might attribute this to gambler's fallacy, but that is not correct. No one is saying that because you were lucky one year or extended stretch of games, you will be unlucky the next. Only that you will regress toward the mean, which you will.

But the crux of the biscuit isn't just that it contains an extended run of fortuitous results; it is obviously that it is extremely frustrating to lose to such a team, especially since the fans of said team will typically rub it in and claim it's, in fact, not luck which comes across as a toxic cocktail of smirk and delusion.

A team having a high shooting a save percentage and regressing doesn't in any way suggest that their success last year was due to luck. And regression being likely doesn't either since, when players or goalies have career or near career best seasons, it's likely that they won't sustain that. Any measure of luck has to be a hell of a lot more sophisticated than summing save and shooting percentage given all of the variables that will affect those things. I would be curious to see a proper analysis of this. My guess is that luck would account for a rather small fraction of the variance in PDO across teams.

 

[Fishy McScales]

A team having a high shooting a save percentage and regressing doesn't in any way suggest that their success last year was due to luck. And regression being likely doesn't either since, when players or goalies have career or near career best seasons, it's likely that they won't sustain that. Any measure of luck has to be a hell of a lot more sophisticated than summing save and shooting percentage given all of the variables that will affect those things. I would be curious to see a proper analysis of this. My guess is that luck would account for a rather small fraction of the variance in PDO across teams.

Again, I am talking about extreme outliers.

 

[TB12]

Playing behind one of the best teams in the league. Other than Colorado whose stats were sewered by Georgiev, how many top 10 teams have goaltending that is this shit?

No one. And yet it's never Moustache's fault on here. This team NEEDS to get a guy to tandem with him. We've seen this movie too many times already. The guy is up and down (like a toilet seat) and when he hits the skids for 2-3 games, which he will, that's enough to lose a series. They absolutely need someone that can go between the pipes during his inevitable cold stretches.

Tying Connor's legacy to a guy this bad and inconsistent is borderline criminal.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

Again, I am talking about extreme outliers.

I think all you would have to do is look at PDO for teams across an entire season and see at what point the variance between teams stabilizes. That's hard to tell from graphs. PDO varies a lot more over smaller sample sizes and that's going to be mostly due to differences in luck. But luck evens out over sufficiently large samples and I think 82 games is too large of a sample for luck to be a factor worth discussing.

Even for outliers, the Jets are 2nd in PDO this year and were 3rd last year. Not surprising since they have Hellebuyck at his best the past couple years.

If any real analysts do use PDO as a proxy for luck, they must use it for small samples only and I think forum analysts just inappropriately use it to compare luck across entire seasons.

 

[Fishy McScales]

I think all you would have to do is look at PDO for teams across an entire season and see at what point the variance stabilizes. That's hard to tell from graphs. PDO varies a lot more over smaller sample sizes and that's going to be mostly due to differences in luck. But luck evens out over sufficiently large samples and I think 82 games is too large a sample for luck to be a large factor.

But, even for the outliers, the Jets are 2nd in PDO this year and were 3rd last year. Not surprising since they have Hellebuyck at his best the past couple years.

The Jets are not an extreme outlier.

 

[BlackDogg]

I said that the Oilers needed to tie it before Washington got 12 shots, as Skinner would be due again, and sure as shit.

 

[TB12]

Yeah, giving up 3 goals on 14 shots.

Great goaltending, especially when one is a 60 foot slow moving shot on the ice.

The Skinner fanclub is strong. Defending him after last night is laughable.

 

[CupofOil]

I'm not a big Skinner hater but that game yesterday made me dislike him haha. I haven't got bothered by any losses this season more than last night, should have won that game going away.

The Caps basically went 3 for 3 on scoring chances. That shit just can't happen and it's happened too much with Stu this season.

 

[McDNicks17]

Speaking of PDO and the Caps, remember when Dylan Strome was breaking out and maybe he really was almost as good as McDavid? haha

4 points at 5v5 in his last 29 games. If only the Caps kept scoring on 1 in every 4 shots while he was on the ice.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Or Thompson did his job very well and Skinner couldn't match the guy making way less money than him...

Thompson was good and clearly out played Skinner, but the team needed to DO more to score and didn't is my point. Like Logan Thompson wasn't so good they shouldn't have been able to get 3 past him, and didn't work hard enough to do that. Didn't go to the net hard enough, passing it around too much, missed shots, etc.


Logan Thompson was far better than Stuart Skinner, and he deserves credit for the win, but Oilers could have done more to score and didn't.

 

[bobbythebrain]

The second one is an egregious example of shit goal-tending. You have to be f***ing kidding me.

Please explain. It was a full on screen by a giant right in the blue paint.

The 3rd goal is the one to save.

The first 2 were both legit

 

[WhyYouHaveToBeMad]

when was the last time skinner gave up less than 3 goals? HIs shutout vs LA? You can't expect the team to score 4 goals every game

 

[MoontoScott]

The Skinner fanclub is strong. Defending him after last night is laughable.

Am I the only guy who gets tired of Louie saying "Skinner had a great game" no matter how well or how poorly he plays? I guess its become sort of an inside joke at TSN.

 

[TB12]

Am I the only guy who gets tired of Louie saying "Skinner had a great game" no matter how well or how poorly he plays? I guess its become sort of an inside joke at TSN.

Agreed. It's wild. Feels like he's gaslighting us. Rishaug does the same on his podcast, always defending Skinner. Never seen a more average player be so free of criticism from the msm in this city.

If his name was Skinnerovsky he would be having hit pieces written about him daily.

 

[oXo Cube]

Agreed. It's wild. Feels like he's gaslighting us. Rishaug does the same on his podcast, always defending Skinner. Never seen a more average player be so free of criticism from the msm in this city.

If his name was Skinnerovsky he would be having hit pieces written about him daily.

The entirety of the local Oilers media is guilty of this.

The team has no plans to bring in a new goalie so the press were given their marching orders.

EDIT: Of course, if the team changes it's mind on this, they will all immediately flip flop and agree that Skinner isn't and never was good enough.

 

[foshizzle]

No one. And yet it's never Moustache's fault on here. This team NEEDS to get a guy to tandem with him. We've seen this movie too many times already. The guy is up and down (like a toilet seat) and when he hits the skids for 2-3 games, which he will, that's enough to lose a series. They absolutely need someone that can go between the pipes during his inevitable cold stretches.

Tying Connor's legacy to a guy this bad and inconsistent is borderline criminal.

Very well said

 

[TB12]

The entirety of the local Oilers media is guilty of this.

The team has no plans to bring in a new goalie so the press were given their marching orders.

You are probably right. And that is very depressing. I have no idea how management can tie this team's Cup chances on a goalie this f***ing inconsistent. It's maddening.

 

[foshizzle]

Agreed. It's wild. Feels like he's gaslighting us. Rishaug does the same on his podcast, always defending Skinner. Never seen a more average player be so free of criticism from the msm in this city.

If his name was Skinnerovsky he would be having hit pieces written about him daily.

They did this to Koskinen

 

[Old Boys Club]

Agreed. It's wild. Feels like he's gaslighting us. Rishaug does the same on his podcast, always defending Skinner. Never seen a more average player be so free of criticism from the msm in this city.

If his name was Skinnerovsky he would be having hit pieces written about him daily.

Spector would be trying to body bag him at every turn and would personally buy his plane tickets out of here if he were Skinnerovsky.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

when was the last time skinner gave up less than 3 goals? HIs shutout vs LA? You can't expect the team to score 4 goals every game

Right now the team has to score 4 goals a game to win when skinner is in net. Note often than not

 

[Dirty Mind]

I’m terrfied (again) of going into the playoffs with our starter. I won’t talk crap about him but he’s simply not an NHL-level goalie, sort of like the same way Dallas Eakins isn’t an NHL-level coach. Like Eakins, Skinner could thrive in a lower league but not the NHL.

An .894 SV% might have cut it in 1984 - but even in 1984 it’s possible the Oilers could have lost with an .833 SV% like Skinner had in the Canucks series. I firmly believe the Oilers win the last two Cups with a .900 SV% which shouldn’t be a humongous ask.

Right now the team has to score 4 goals a game to win when skinner is in net. Note often than not

Not only that but play near-perfect team defense like killing 30+ straight penalties and limiting the opposition to 12 shots. That is NOT sustainable and frankly I’m still amazed they were able to kill off so many penalties. That kind of run is extremely rare and can’t be counted on a consistent basis.

 

[BlackDogg]

Those nachos may have stopped Phil Kessel but not the capitals necessarily. Calculated risk.

The Oilers are expected to have a nacho phone hearing later today.

 

[CupofOil]

Management doing more than the bare minimum isn't something they're known to do. Actual monkeys could do a better job than Bowman and his flock of useless cronies.

Just some advice, but maybe you should take a break from hockey for a while. The Oilers lost two 1 goal games after like a 19-3 stretch or whatever it was, it ain't that bad.