Is importance of draft picks and prospects in general overrated?

[Regal]

Looking at it as individual draft picks or prospects is the wrong approach. “Oh it’s just a 3rd rounder, what are the odds he hits?”. But the value is in the potential because if you get enough of them then you will start to hit. And young players with low cap hits and control have a ton of value. Teams get into trouble when they start paying too much to keep players that are good but aren’t difference makers. If you have a deep pool because you keep drafting a lot then it’s much easier to let players go when they price themselves out and you can replace them from within. It also gives you the potential of finding a difference maker in the rough which you likely won’t through trading the picks for established players.

That’s not to say you shouldn’t trade picks, but I think it’s problematic when you’re at a point that you’re constantly trading picks just to fill holes, because I think you’re already behind the eight ball at that point and unless your core is one of the best in the league you’re not likely to dramatically improve. If you’re keeping lots of picks and restocking the cupboards regularly you can also try to make a big splash for a difference maker if someone becomes available.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

I'm a draft nerd and love the process with the draft & following prospects, but you're seeing how overvalued part of it is, especially once you're good. Yes, you need to draft well in order to bring in ELCs to help contribute on the cheap when you're going for it, but most of your picks outside of the 1st round, and especially after the 2nd round, will not work out, so if you wait on them too long, they will lose value if they don't become NHL contributors and/or stall out in junior/NCAA/European Pro/minor pro.

For example, the Carolina Hurricanes have (more recently) been lauded by Twitter scouts and the online draft nerds who value pure skill and tend to overrate European Pro route points producers, who Carolina tends to target more than league average. From 2019-present, very few of Carolina's picks have worked out and become NHLers, as it has just been Kochetkov and Jarvis so far. Carolina's situation with their A affiliation has made things worse, but until the Guentzel trade, they weren't aggressive enough with trading picks and prospects to trade some potential future wins for current wins and a better chance at the Cup. The Kotkaniemi petty offer sheet was idiotic and a waste; you're seeing how dumb it was right now with Kotkaniemi doing f*** all in the playoffs.

 

[Voight]

The JT Miller trade is a good example of people overrating picks. At the time, some questioned the Canucks moving a 1st for him and now hes one of the better players in the league. Also no longer a Bozo.

 

[gritdash60]

Couldn't tell you, Wings have not gotten a single top3 pick while being an ass team for a decade.