Is Connor Mcdavid a "tier above" Sidney Crosby as a player?

[solidmotion]

All Time Leaders in Leading in Month, PTS (Reg. Seasons 1917-2024)

All Time Leaders in Leading in Month*, PTS** (Reg. Seasons 1917-2024) * - Months with min. 5 team games. ** - tiebreakers: 1. Player with most goals. 2. Player with fewer games played. Most Times "#1 in PTS", Month (Reg. Seasons 1917-2024) https://tinyurl.com/28m4rdga Most Times...

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some interesting stats in this thread that show mcdavid moving closer to howe/esposito/lemieux and far surpassing crosby

 

[Fourier]

A baseball game is the sum of a number of individual performances. A player's offensive impact can be pretty well quantified so blaming one guy for his team not winning wouldn't make sense.

Hockey has a lot more entanglement, and one player can impact the performance of another.

I'm not someone who puts a bunch of stock in championships for an individual player. I don't necessarily knock McDavid for not winning a cup so far, but I do think his point totals are more impressive than his actual positive impact towards his team winning.

As someone who watches every game the guy plays and who has followed the Oilers since 1972, the bolded is exactly the opposite of what I have seen. The only other Oiler that I think exceeds McDavid in terms of his impact on the team is Gretzky. And as much as I never thought I would say this, the gap between the two in that regard has closed considerably over the last few years. In particular in the playoffs. McDavid, in the playoffs over the last three years has played incredibly well in all aspects of the game. Frankly, what he did last year is as close to anything I saw as a STH out of Gretzky during the 80's as I could have ever imagined.

 

[norrisnick]

...the only two Penguins to score 50 points that season and only two more got to 40.

None of McDavid's teammates outplayed him. Shame, really. He'd be a born winner if they did...

And 5 Oilers total scored 22+ points this playoffs. Only Crosby and Malkin scored over 15 points in 09

Sounds like the guys on the ice with Connor had their play elevated. Weird, was led to believe he couldn't do that...

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

And 5 Oilers total scored 22+ points this playoffs. Only Crosby and Malkin scored over 15 points in 09

Offense is significantly higher one would think, but no denying McDavid drives Edmonton with his speed and generational talent. He will finish a top 5 player in history. Crosby simply is a tier below. A historical tier, but not the same tier.

 

[wetcoast]

Crazy how you are against star/trophy counting but using “adjusted for era” to make Crosbys production look similar to McDavids is quite hilarious.

Like I said, Crosby fans love “adjusted” stats. They aren’t real stats, they aren’t even 100% accurate, but they tell them what they so desperately need to tell them.

Sure like I said upthread scoring hasn't gone up so each seasons counting stats should count the same right?

I'll trade you my 10000 yen for 10000 greenbacks buddy.

I have acknowledged that adjusted stats aren't 100% correct it's a ballpark take off 5% if you are being reasonable or throw them out all together if you are being unreasonable which is exactly your MO.

The adjusted states measures the rate of scoring between different eras but no douby a select few will go down strawman road once again right?

 

[Golden_Jet]

The Oilers the last 3 years had a better team than the 09 Penguins,

Is that why we’re comparing 3 rounds of Crosby in 09 to 4 rounds of McDavid in this thread.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I'm not someone who puts a bunch of stock in championships for an individual player.

lol ok

 

[wetcoast]

All Time Leaders in Leading in Month, PTS (Reg. Seasons 1917-2024)

All Time Leaders in Leading in Month*, PTS** (Reg. Seasons 1917-2024) * - Months with min. 5 team games. ** - tiebreakers: 1. Player with most goals. 2. Player with fewer games played. Most Times "#1 in PTS", Month (Reg. Seasons 1917-2024) https://tinyurl.com/28m4rdga Most Times...

forums.hfboards.com

some interesting stats in this thread that show mcdavid moving closer to howe/esposito/lemieux and far surpassing crosby

Sure but there is a second chart "most times top 5 in a month " and crosby has 115 while McDavid has 57.

Of course that's 19 years to 9 but even with the injuries it shows Crosby's outstanding elite longevity right?

My bad read the chart wrong but still Crosby is impressive given the time missed with injuries.

Thanks to everyone who charitably pointed out my gaff.

 

[solidmotion]

Sure but there is a second chart "most times top 5 in a month " and crosby has 115 while McDavid has 57.

Of course that's 19 years to 9 but even with the injuries it shows Crosby's outstanding elite longevity right?

either you're misreading that chart or i am. i think you're looking at total months. what i see (scroll to the right) is that mcdavid has 32 top-5 months and crosby has 26.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Sure but there is a second chart "most times top 5 in a month " and crosby has 115 while McDavid has 57.

Of course that's 19 years to 9 but even with the injuries it shows Crosby's outstanding elite longevity right?

Better re-read the chart, McDavid ahead,
Your reading how many months player has played, not how many times lead, oof, and like you said, in half the time for McDavid.

Now what do think of the chart?

 

[GreatGonzo]

Sure like I said upthread scoring hasn't gone up so each seasons counting stats should count the same right?

I'll trade you my 10000 yen for 10000 greenbacks buddy.

I have acknowledged that adjusted stats aren't 100% correct it's a ballpark take off 5% if you are being reasonable or throw them out all together if you are being unreasonable which is exactly your MO.

The adjusted states measures the rate of scoring between different eras but no douby a select few will go down strawman road once again right?

It’s the fact that you love going with faulty stats instead of actual raw totals and achievements. that’s why your little statement was funny.

Stat/trophy counting is not the way to do it…oh, but let’s use stats that don’t exist….

And 5 Oilers total scored 22+ points this playoffs. Only Crosby and Malkin scored over 15 points in 09

top 5 finals scorers for the Pens
1. Malkin: 7-2-6-8
2. Talbot: 7-4-2-6
3. Letang: 7-1-3-4
4. Kennedy: 7-2-1-3
5. Staal: 7-2-1-3

Top 5 finals scorers for the Oilers
1. McDavid: 7-3-8-11
2. Foegele: 7-2-3-5
3. Bouchard: 7-0-5-5
4. Hyman: 7-2-2-4
5. Janmark: 7-2-2-4

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

An obvious truth needs no elaboration.

Apparently not. Whats so obvious to some in here is completely lost on others lol

 

[Video Nasty]

Sure but there is a second chart "most times top 5 in a month " and crosby has 115 while McDavid has 57.

Of course that's 19 years to 9 but even with the injuries it shows Crosby's outstanding elite longevity right?

No, the chart is telling us what we all should know. McDavid has achieved the same or more than Crosby in less than half a career of data between the two. Should McDavid play his 18-20 seasons, it’s going to get ugly and real fast.

 

[Bluesguru]

I’m not a supporter of LeBron over Jordan at all. That being said, this off the cuff comment has little basis in reality.

He has averaged 71 regular season games per year for 21 years. That has a lockout shortened 66 games in 2011-2012 and COVID stoppage at 71 games in 2019-2020. He will become the all-time leader in minutes played before the end of the first half of the upcoming season and will likely have the second most games played by the end of the season. He is already the all-time leader in playoff games. Combine his regular season and playoffs, and he has averaged 85 games a year for over two decades straight.

“Like half seasons” is an extreme exaggeration. “Like three quarter” seasons isn’t even true.

I’m one of the biggest Jordan fans out there, but he didn’t have the stamina LeBron has. Hence why he retired twice by the age of 35, due to physical and mental fatigue.

My comparison of Jordan and Lebron is simple.

It's Jordan hands down the first 10 years of Jordan's career.
And it's hands down Lebron the last 10 years of his career.

Basically, about the age 31 and beyond, it's Lebron.

On a side note, IMO Lebron developed into a much better player since he left Miami.

 

[Video Nasty]

My comparison of Jordan and Lebron is simple.

It's Jordan hands down the first 10 years of Jordan's career.
And it's hands down Lebron the last 10 years of his career.

Basically, about the age 31 and beyond, it's Lebron.

On a side note, IMO Lebron developed into a much better player since he left Miami.

LeBron peaked as an all-around player in Miami. Storybook moments like coming back from 3-1 and The Block are not to be confused with his peak as a player, nor the league-wide offensive explosion around 2016 that has juiced all the numbers.

 

[Svencouver]

Niedermayer and Orr are not comparable players

Lemieux and Toews are not comparable players.

Crosby and Lemieux are not comparable players (dominance wise). Crosby closes the gap due to his longevity + better intangibles.

Ironically, both Niedermayer’s and Toews’ legacy is heavily influenced by the number of times they won. Why wouldn’t the same apply to Crosby?

I think the whole "if championships matter then Horry > Jordan right?" arguments are a super lazy strawman. Everyone understands that winning in a team sport is difficult, mercurial, and relies a lot on luck and circumstance. But I think its equally absurd to imply that there's nothing that a player like Crosby could do to elevate his teams chances of winning beyond scoring, or that actually winning Championships is just some trivial matter of non-importance that is entirely out of the hands of the players; players that play the sport to win. These comparisons only come into play when two players are very, very close in ability and we have to consider what sorts of intangibles they offer, when anyone who has multi-sport knowledge or especially experience playing sports themselves know just how much things like culture, mentality, group psychology, training, and leadership can be the difference between similarly abled competitors when it comes to actually winning the ultimate prize.

Crosby is obviously much closer to McDavid in offensive talent than Toews is to Crosby. I think any good faith actor in this discussion will accept that McDavid is at the very least objectively more accomplished than Crosby in offensive metrics and awards. Crosby's injuries made sure of that, but I do agree that its not unlikely that McDavid would have outscored him if they were able to play in the same era with complete health regardless. But I don't think that the gap is so great that it can't be bridged by whatever we consider responsible for Crosby's Penguins being so much more successful than McDavids Oilers. At the very least to the point they're in the same tier of player.

 

[Fourier]

Sure like I said upthread scoring hasn't gone up so each seasons counting stats should count the same right?

I'll trade you my 10000 yen for 10000 greenbacks buddy.

I have acknowledged that adjusted stats aren't 100% correct it's a ballpark take off 5% if you are being reasonable or throw them out all together if you are being unreasonable which is exactly your MO.

The adjusted states measures the rate of scoring between different eras but no douby a select few will go down strawman road once again right?

Of course scoring is higher. That is a provable fact. However, what is also true is that there are big issues with all of the "adjusted for era" models. These are particularly problematic when being applied to outliers like some of the generational players. This is especially true in the playoffs where because of smaller sample sizes individual teams and even individual players can significantly skew year by year comparisons.

For example, here is an example of how one can distort year by year adjustments by looking to simplistically at rates from given years:

One thing that is seldom mentioned in this thread in using the higher scoring rates argument is the significant in reduction of pp opportunities over the last 5 years vs say the first 5 in Crosby's career. In the 9 year period from 2005-2006 through 2013-2014 the Penquins PPOpp/gm ranged from a low of 3.39 to a high of 6.04 with a median of 3.98. In the 9 years McDavid has been an Oiler the Oilers PPOpp/gm has ranged from a low of 2.56 to a high of 3.35 and a median of 2.89. The difference between the medians is 1.09 pp/gm. Over an 82 game period that is 89 pp opportunities per year. When looking at very basic "adjustments" how much noise does this throw into the math?

In the most extreme case take McDavid's 2022-23 year as compared with Pittsburgh in 2005-06. The Oilers had 3.35 PPOpp/game vs the 6.04 PPOpp/gm. If the Oiler had 6.04 pp's per game they would have had 221 more pp's. At a 32.4% success rate that would be another 72 goals. Since McDavid is in on roughly 80% of the Oilers that is roughly 58 more points on top of his 153 he put up. That takes him over the 200 point threshold using this "adjustment". Of course scoring per game was 3% higher in 2022-23 than it was in 2005-06 so maybe we can reduce the McDavid number by about 6 goals taking him back to about 205 points.

Do you have any issues with this argument? While I am sure you do, if not, you should because there are lots of problems making claims like these. In reality it is extremely difficult to actually quantify how differences in something like pp rates might impact a particular individual since there are so many variables at play. But simple models that instead compare total scoring rates alone from year to year, which is pretty much what we are seeing in this thread, may not produce such obvious anomalies, that does not in itself mean that they are more accurate in capturing the impact of era changes. In fact, for a guy like McDavid who is so deadly on the pp, things like rates of pp opportunities may in fact have a very significant individual impact that is almost completely dampened when the simpler adjustment is used. For him more pp's may dwarf the significance of higher overall G/gm numbers. Where as for a guy who never sees pp time, the impact of increase pp opportunities would be potentially negative.

 

[Johnny Rifle]

As I posted in the Pens forum, McDavid has unreal speed, Crosby has unreal hands. While speed will fade over time, hand-eye coordination takes a bit longer. I think Crosby will be a more effective player at 37 than McDavid will at 37.

if we compare peak McDavid with peak Crosby, it’s so close. Obviously post-season success favors Crosby, and it’s hard to rack up assist numbers playing with some second-tier wingers for his entire career, so the stats favor McDavid but not as much as the pure numbers would suggest. Injuries also favor McDavid as Crosby has so many “what if” seasons after his first Cup.

Whoever you give the edge to is irrelevant, there is just not enough evidence to list McDavid a “tier” above Crosby at this stage in their careers.

 

[Fourier]

I think the whole "if championships matter then Horry > Jordan right?" arguments are a super lazy strawman. Everyone understands that winning in a team sport is difficult, mercurial, and relies a lot on luck and circumstance. But I think its equally absurd to imply that there's nothing that a player like Crosby could do to elevate his teams chances of winning beyond scoring, or that actually winning Championships is just some trivial matter of non-importance that is entirely out of the hands of the players; players that play the sport to win. These comparisons only come into play when two players are very, very close in ability and we have to consider what sorts of intangibles they offer, when anyone who has multi-sport knowledge or especially experience playing sports themselves know just how much things like culture, mentality, group psychology, training, and leadership can be the difference between similarly abled competitors when it comes to actually winning the ultimate prize.

Crosby is obviously much closer to McDavid in offensive talent than Toews is to Crosby. I think any good faith actor in this discussion will accept that McDavid is at the very least objectively more accomplished than Crosby in offensive metrics and awards. Crosby's injuries made sure of that, but I do agree that its not unlikely that McDavid would have outscored him if they were able to play in the same era with complete health regardless. But I don't think that the gap is so great that it can't be bridged by whatever we consider responsible for Crosby's Penguins being so much more successful than McDavids Oilers. At the very least to the point they're in the same tier of player.

The problem here is that because Pittsburgh won and the Oilers did not many here simply assume that Crosby was more capable of adding those intangibles than McDavid. Yet there is almost no evidence given to support this beyond simply asserting it to be the case. Why is Crosby a better leader? What does he bring to the team in terms of culture that McDavid does not bring to the Oilers?? We hear things like... he makes his teammates better, or its his 200 foot game and yet the statistical evidence does not support a more significant impact in these aspects of the game for Crosby at the same career stage over McDavid. So we are left with things like "leadership" and "culture" with no evidence to support Crosby's own superiority other than Pittsburgh won and the Oilers did not.

 

[Fourier]

As I posted in the Pens forum, McDavid has unreal speed, Crosby has unreal hands. While speed will fade over time, hand-eye coordination takes a bit longer. I think Crosby will be a more effective player at 37 than McDavid will at 37.

if we compare peak McDavid with peak Crosby, it’s so close. Obviously post-season success favors Crosby, and it’s hard to rack up assist numbers playing with some second-tier wingers for his entire career, so the stats favor McDavid but not as much as the pure numbers would suggest. Injuries also favor McDavid as Crosby has so many “what if” seasons after his first Cup.

Whoever you give the edge to is irrelevant, there is just not enough evidence to list McDavid a “tier” above Crosby at this stage in their careers.

Lets look at Crosby's and McDavid's most common all situation teammates for the periods between the 3rd and 5th years:

Crosby 2007-2008 to 2009-2010

Top 4:

Malkin 1936 minutes (59.11%)
Gonchar 1455 minutes (44.4%)
Letang 1386 minutes (42.3%)
Guerin 1182 minutes. (36.1%)

The next 6 forwards
Dupuis 883 minutes(27.0%)
Kunitz 777 minutes (23.7)
Sykora 612 minutes (18.7%)
Satan 479 minutes (14.6%)
Fedotenko 476 minutes (14.5%)
Malone 431 minutes (13.25)

Out of 3275 minutes in total

McDavid 2017-18 to 20

Top 4:

Draisaitl 2823 minutes (58.2%)
Nurse 2044 minutes (42.1%)
Klefbom 1833 minutes (37.7%)
Larsson 1316 (27.1%)

Next 6 forwards:
Nugent-Hopkins 1274 minutes (26.3%)
Kassian 1190 minutes (24.5%)
Lucic 740 minutes (15.2%)
Chiasson 673 minutes (13.9%)
Maroon 572 minutes (11.8%)
Rattie 450 minutes (9.3%)

Out of 4853 minutes

 

[Johnny Rifle]

Lets look at Crosby's and McDavid's most common all situation teammates for the periods between the 3rd and 5th years:

<Outstanding stats>

Those are interesting numbers, is it possible to pull out the power play time?

I suspect Malkin and Crosby played a massive amount of time together on the power play, skewing those numbers. Same might be said for McDavid and Draisaitl, though they are paired up occasionally even-strength.

Either way, Jake Guentzel is probably light years better than anyone the Oilers have other than Draisaitl, so I can’t exactly say Crosby never had a decent winger his entire career.

 

[GreatGonzo]

As I posted in the Pens forum, McDavid has unreal speed, Crosby has unreal hands. While speed will fade over time, hand-eye coordination takes a bit longer. I think Crosby will be a more effective player at 37 than McDavid will at 37.

if we compare peak McDavid with peak Crosby, it’s so close. Obviously post-season success favors Crosby, and it’s hard to rack up assist numbers playing with some second-tier wingers for his entire career, so the stats favor McDavid but not as much as the pure numbers would suggest. Injuries also favor McDavid as Crosby has so many “what if” seasons after his first Cup.

Whoever you give the edge to is irrelevant, there is just not enough evidence to list McDavid a “tier” above Crosby at this stage in their careers.

I don’t understand this. Crosby didn’t really have a peak….so saying it’s close is heavily involving pace and adjusted scoring.

I’ll never understand this argument. I’ve seen Crosby get a ton of credit for making his teammates better and I’ve seen those same posters say that McDavid doesn’t. But now, it’s “well Crosby could have scored MORE if he had better linemates” and “well McDavid only scores more because his linemates are better.” Crazy how the excuses for Crosby continue to change.

 

[Fourier]

Those are interesting numbers, is it possible to pull out the power play time?

I suspect Malkin and Crosby played a massive amount of time together on the power play, skewing those numbers. Same might be said for McDavid and Draisaitl, though they are paired up occasionally even-strength.

Either way, Jake Guentzel is probably light years better than anyone the Oilers have other than Draisaitl, so I can’t exactly say Crosby never had a decent winger his entire career.

In the end I intentionally include pp numbers in part because of the significant advantage in pp opportunities that Pittsburgh had over the Oilers for the periods I posted about, but mostly because they matter.

Here are the top 4 and next 6 forwards for each player 5 vs 5. I'll fill in the numbers later.

Crosby 2007-2008 to 2009-2010

Orpik
Letang
Malikn
Dupuis

Next 6
Guerin
Kunitz
Fedetenko
Satan
Talbot
Malone


For McDavid 2017-18 to 2019-20

Draisaitl
Nurse
Larsson
Klefbom

Next 6
Kassian
Nugent-Hopkins
Maroon
Lucic
Rattie
Chiasson

 

[Johnny Rifle]

i’d recheck your numbers. I don’t think Malkin played with Crosby hardly at all 5v5 unless after a power play or in end-of-game situations. Your list also includes defensemen, which while useful information (Letang could drive offense while Nurse is a bit more stay-at-home), doesn’t prove or disprove my point that Crosby hasn’t had great linemates.

 

[norrisnick]

I think the whole "if championships matter then Horry > Jordan right?" arguments are a super lazy strawman. Everyone understands that winning in a team sport is difficult, mercurial, and relies a lot on luck and circumstance. But I think its equally absurd to imply that there's nothing that a player like Crosby could do to elevate his teams chances of winning beyond scoring, or that actually winning Championships is just some trivial matter of non-importance that is entirely out of the hands of the players; players that play the sport to win. These comparisons only come into play when two players are very, very close in ability and we have to consider what sorts of intangibles they offer, when anyone who has multi-sport knowledge or especially experience playing sports themselves know just how much things like culture, mentality, group psychology, training, and leadership can be the difference between similarly abled competitors when it comes to actually winning the ultimate prize.

Crosby is obviously much closer to McDavid in offensive talent than Toews is to Crosby. I think any good faith actor in this discussion will accept that McDavid is at the very least objectively more accomplished than Crosby in offensive metrics and awards. Crosby's injuries made sure of that, but I do agree that its not unlikely that McDavid would have outscored him if they were able to play in the same era with complete health regardless. But I don't think that the gap is so great that it can't be bridged by whatever we consider responsible for Crosby's Penguins being so much more successful than McDavids Oilers. At the very least to the point they're in the same tier of player.

And if that "whatever we consider responsible" has nothing to do with either player why would that bridge any gap?