SeanMoneyHands
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- Apr 18, 2019
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Makar has found another gear this year. He could be in the running for the Art Ross, Hart and Norris if he keeps this pace.
Is Cale Makar a generational talent?
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- Oct 13, 2018
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There's a lot of info here, a lot of it I'll probably have to think about and double check numbers for, but two things that jump out right away:
A real concern I have with the "COL depth is bad so Makar's stats go down" argument, is that his relative stats has also continued to decrease, if the caste around him got worse, his CorsiRel and FenwickRel would go up, but it hasn't. Additionally, the team's CF and FF stats have stayed consistent throughout those years.
21-22 Avs: 52.87/51.91
22-23 Avs: 52.19/51.38
23-24 Avs: 52.68/52.12
Another, is that Makar's legendary 21-22 season may be skewing his stats a lot. In the 21-22 season, Makar was absolutely the gas that powered the Avs. Makar's xGF without MacKinnon drops by 5 points if you take away his, for lack of a better word, "outlier" elite season, so clearly something changed.
Ultimately, I think we just don't know the answer yet, and we need a larger sample size. The good news, is if Makar continues to look "bad" on paper while that doesn't pass the eye test, some advanced stats guy will probably figure it out soon. JFresh and DomLuszczyszyn have already tweeted about it, so stats people are aware.
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Rabid Ranger
2 is better than one
Yeah, he's piling up the minuses, PP points, and secondary assists.
Just wait until
Attached the 3 year span for each and let me know if you agree that giving Bouchard/Hughes the two big boys is fair compared to Fox/Makar only having their one.
The main thing that popped out to me was the correlation between O zone faceoff % decreasing and captain obvious, everything else decreases as well. Can probably also add in team FO% and see how that contributes. Something that shouldnt be held against said Dman, but is a huge contributor to their advanced stats starting with the puck in the o zone or hemmed in their own D zone.
Quinn is the only one of the four who saw a dramatic increase in O Zone Faceoff % without either of his big guns out there with him in 23-24 and shocker, Norris.
Fox/Panarin had a whopping 85% together!
My quick thought there and we can analyze that a bit deeper, but seems over the years that COL/NYR are giving Makar/Fox more D time against the big boys from the other team. Quinn is getting strategic O Zone starts and Bouchard they dont know what the f to do if Connor/Leon arent out there. High danger plummets with other stats are still solid surprisingly.
Like I said the eye test just isnt there and Makar and Fox having more time on the ice in their D zone and against the other teams best would explain a decrease in advanced stats. Then Hughes is the opposite and of course his stats look better. I dont think this is a way to explain actual defense best.
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Ceremony
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Scoring at a blistering 1.38 PPG currently
Lidstrom - .74 PPG during his 10 year stretch with 7 Norris's
Orr - 1.55 PPF during his 8 year stretch with 8 straight Norris's
Lidstrom - .74 PPG during his 10 year stretch with 7 Norris's
Orr - 1.55 PPF during his 8 year stretch with 8 straight Norris's
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Yup we dont count breaks in between seasons anymore and can cherry pick dates that make the stats look the best.
Bender
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How's the actual defensive side been? I have him on my fantasy team and his +/- is killing me in that category.
1989
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Not to brag, but at one point in the late 1900s I had the most gold star stickers per kindergarten sticker board between April - October.
But congrats to Makar too I guess.
This thread got merged with the cherry-picked stat range thread involving Makar so now my generational post makes no sense
But congrats to Makar too I guess.
This thread got merged with the cherry-picked stat range thread involving Makar so now my generational post makes no sense
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I have no idea but that’s no surprise given how bad the goaltending was at the start of the season.
- Oct 13, 2018
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Statistically he's been really bad without MacKinnon at both ends of the ice but he's looked good.
So far, we're not sure why.
I posted proof above that Fox is the same without Panarin and while Hughes is not as bad without Miller and/or Pettersson, he went from getting smoked defensively in 21-22 and 22-23 to very sheltered O zone starts (up over 10% compared to Makar -13% and Fox -8%) in 23-24 while Makar/Fox both have increased their D zone starts without their superstar counterparts facing the opposing teams best players.
That to me is their team trusting them to play actual defense instead of hiding them against the others teams best.
Still a bad take and only looking at offensive numbers. Its actually more impressive now that Makar ended up only 2 points behind Hughes playing 5 less games with the amount of D zone starts Makar was given.
Everything outside of points looks bad right now due to Georgiev. With average goaltending, the very injured Avs could be 8-2 right now. If they can stay .500 until healthy, thats a win at this point.
eviohh26
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Im no analytics expert, but this seems like common sense when you dive deeper.
Player A: 56.43% O Zone starts with 3rd-4th line forwards. 63-67% O zone starts with line 1-2 forwards. 52.1% team FO win %.
Player B: 46.49% O Zone starts with 2nd-4th line forwards. 85.82% O Zone starts with line 1 forwards. 52.3% team FO win %.
Player C: 42.01% O Zone starts with 2nd-4th line forwards. 69.43% O Zone starts with line 1 forwards. 47.9% team FO win %.
Player A, I did two lines because they dont have a true #1 forward, but two very high end forwards who often are on separate lines.
My point in all of this is showing how advanced analytics can be deceptive when evaluating a defenseman. He is punished stats wise for being put out there against the opposing teams best forwards and then also rewarded/punished for his teams FO %, which is obviously out of his control. Of course Corsi, Fenwick and high danger % will be lower when you start in your own zone more, your team cant win faceoffs, and you dont have you best forwards with you, but your team trusts you to play actual defense vs Karlsson style putting up points willy nilly while letting in just as many or more.
A lot of it is coaching, but player B and C have an increased amount of D zone starts over the past 3 years where player A is the opposite. I give credit to the coaching staff for putting his player in the best place to succeed, but one person will call that strategic and another will call it sheltered.
We could dive deeper and look at icings and maybe these elite defensemen are responsible for their D zone faceoffs, which hem them in their own zone, but I doubt any of them are high there. My thought is coaches purposely put them out there against the other teams best.
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Ya, I should have said that it appears he's bad without MacKinnon, not knowing why was in reference to why the two things don't match up.
As for the sheltering, HockeyReference has Hughes' total starts at 62%oZS at ES last season, and Makar at 63.3%oZS. In fact, there's no year where Hughes had more ES oZS%. Hughes Career average is 59.3% oZS, while Makar's is 62.2% oZS. Last year, the 5v5 numbers were even more skewed in Hughes' favour, by 3%. This is for all starts at ES. In fact, if you look at 5v5 play, Makar's never had a season below 60% 5v5oZS, all between 60.3-64.7. Hughes has only had 3 above 60%, and they were between 52% and 61.9%.
Also, considering both of the Canucks elite Cs play on different lines, it skews the numbers. It's probably not as accurate for Hughes as it is for Makar. We need a "Starts with Miller or Pettersson" stat, which we don't have.
According to PuckIQ (I don't have a better way to track Qualcomp anymore), Makar did play against slightly harder competition but he also did much worse against that harder competition relative to his teammates than Hughes did.
Makar may have spent 3% more of his time against harder competition, but relative to his teammates he did very poorly against them, while Hughes absolutely lapped him.
Here's 22-23, where, relative to teams, Hughes still did much better against harder competition, relative to team:
This year for fun, it probably doesn't mean much at this time, but Hughes being +24.6% relative to team while 36.5% of his ice time has been against elite competition is wild, while Makar is actually being sheltered and being dominated regardless of who he's up against:
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The whole argument started with/without MacKinnon. Why are we all of a sudden looking at Makar vs Hughes solely? Where is Fox in this equation? Or Bouchard? Or is this simply a Makar bashing fascination begging for an opportunity to compare Hughes vs Makar? What happened to Natural Stat Trick? Didnt like those numbers so searched for others than fit your narrative? I dont care about total starts. I want to know total starts with/without their respective top players. Total starts is completely ignoring d zone starts without your top line. Same with quality of competition overall. Might be a minor difference if you get McDavid in your own zone or not and with your 4th line or not.
I was enjoying this and felt like we were actually analytically analyzing all the top dmen coming up with ways to explain numbers, but now it turned into what every obsessive Canuck fan turns it into. Damn
- Oct 13, 2018
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Sorry I let you down.
I looked at Makar and Hughes solely because to me, and basically everyone else, they are #1 and #2 at this point, which is pretty much always backed up by the stats. I also decided to go outside instead of spending an hour+ on a post 3x as long.
I used PuckIQ for QualComp because you brought up Makar's stats potentially being because he's trusted against harder competition, I showed that he only faces elite competition roughly 3% more of the time than Hughes but his relative stats were much worse than that. I understand that we were talking about stats with main fwd contributors on the ice but I don't know that it's possible to get stats that show how MacKinnon on ice will affect quality of competition, so I offered what I was able to come up with, but I don't really know where else to go from here.
I also didn't change websites because I didn't like the stats on NST, Hockey Reference has a search tool and is extremely fast, and their stats are close enough, HockeyRef is actually a bit more forgiving to Makar than NST.
For the record, here's the last few years of Fox and Bouchard, with a quick glance it seems like Bouchard is definitely the most sheltered of the four, Fox the least, and Hughes and Makar in the middle.
That much points and so bad +- can only mean one thing. He must be a rover!
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