i've long said that public analytics miss the mark because they don't adequately account for usage/teammates. dom has been a big culprit of that, but he wrote a really good
piece today on that topic.
he did charts for all the teams, and the cbj one is really informative. remember – this is
only a measure of usage/teammates, not individual impact/ability.
some superstar-level players are
far into the bottom left quadrant. but when you have multiple star forwards who can crush those minutes, it makes life easier for the supporting guys, pushing them to the right side of this chart (i.e. draisaitl/mcdavid pushing hyman/rnh/kane way over to the right).
with that in mind, some things on the CBJ chart that jump out to me:
first, about the top line:
- gaudreau appears to be having the same type of impact on jenner that a lot of other stars have on the passengers on their line
- jenner isn't a lifting force on his teammates the way folks tend to think – he's in the same area as guys like bryan rust, alexis lafreniere and ondrej palat
- this team sorely needs a second star forward to have a gaudreau-like impact on another line, because the rest of the lineup is not having a fun time based on this chart
second, the top left quadrant, where fun goes to die:
- ideally, this is where you want to hide fringe NHL guys who aren't going to produce offense anyway (hence olivier and bean)
- fantilli, johnson and jiricek are all in this quadrant, presumably because pascal is so afraid of them getting pantsed defensively, but now their usage isn't aligned to their talents (skill/scoring) – a sign of cowardly coaching imo
- proper usage would put those young guys in the top right quadrant – sheltered defensively but with good offensive matchups/usage. plenty of other teams understand that – hence guys lke leo carlsson, matthew poitras, lukas reichel and shane pinto being in that quadrant
finally, some observations based on the above to re-frame
player card impacts:
- kent johnson (-2 off, +1 def)'s impact pretty closely mirrors his usage.
- jiricek's performance (-6 off, +4 def) also follows his usage, but more extreme in both directions. dom's model has him with the best defensive impact on the team (+4), which is likely influenced by his usage.
- gudbranson also has a positive defensive impact (+1) despite playing harder minutes, which is good! but he's at a -6 offensively (same as jiricek) despite favorable offensive circumstances. feels like they would have both done better with swapped usage lol
- all of the other CBJ defensemen are getting crushed defensively, which tracks with their usage. werenski is the only one making up for it offensively (+15!)
- yegor chinakhov is a positive offensive (+1) and defensive (+2!) player despite being in the low left quadrant. sneakily on a star track imo