Impacts of a rising cap on the upcoming Trade Deadline and Free Agency

[LordStanlersCup]

Explaining the current situation the best I can

Order of events

The NHL introduced the salary cap in 2005 as part of a new CBA (collective bargaining agreement) following the 2004-2005 lockout. The system ensured a 50-50 revenue split between players and owners. Players are guaranteed approximately 50% of HRR (Hockey Related Revenue). Since the exact HRR for a season is unknown at the start of the year, players' salaries may initially exceed 50% of HRR if actual revenue ends up lower than expected. To ensure the 50/50 split, a percentage of players’ salaries is withheld in an escrow account during the season. This percentage is determined before the season starts, based on revenue projections and this percentage has changed historically to being as high as 20%, but currently it is 6% of a players’ salary. This ensures there’s a pool of money available to balance the revenue split once final HRR is calculated. In the event that HRR exceeds projections, excess funds will be added to the players’ escrow accounts to keep the revenue split at 50-50.

The salary cap is calculated first by taking the HRR from the previous season and making adjustments to it, anticipating future changes for the upcoming season that would affect the HRR. Then calculate the player’s share of HRR, typically 50% of adjusted HRR. Then divide the total player share of the adjusted HRR by the number of teams in the league and this will create the midpoint of the cap. The salary cap ceiling will then be a percentage above and the floor below the midpoint and it was agreed upon in prior CBA’s that it would be 15%. An example would be:

If adjusted HRR is $6.3 billion, 6,300,000,000/2= 3,150,000,000 (players share), 3,150,000,000/32= $98,437,500 (per team midpoint), $98,437,500 * 1.15= $113,203,125 (cap ceiling), $98,437,500 * 0.85= $83,671,875 (cap floor).

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic halted games and slashed revenues, leading to the first major disruption of the cap-setting mechanism. Empty arenas and canceled games reduced league revenues dramatically. To keep the league functioning during this time it was negotiated between the NHL and NHLPA that owners would take most of the burden of the lost income to keep the league active during this time. Players effectively received a “loan” as their compensation exceeded the 50-50 revenue split. This led to a $1.1 billion escrow debt, representing the excess payments to players over their rightful share of league revenues. Players also forfeited 20% of their salaries during the 2019-2020 season to compromise and balance the league’s financial equation some. The NHL and NHLPA agreed to gradually repay this debt through reduced salary cap growth and capped escrow percentages (20% then 18%-14% then 6%) in subsequent seasons. Per the collective bargaining agreement, the NHL and NHLPA agreed to keep the cap flat at $81.5 million until hockey-related revenue surpassed $3.3 billion for the previous season. The salary cap won't rise more than $1 million until HRR reaches $4.8 billion unless the NHL and NHLPA mutually agree to inflate it in excess of $1 million. Once HRR reaches $4.8 billion, the cap could increase by $2 million per season and transition to a formula-based calculation for establishing the cap for the 2023-24 season and beyond. As an example, the 2023-24 salary cap would be calculated using HRR results from 2021-22 and 2022-23. Growth is capped at 5% per year or tied to the two-year trailing average HRR growth rate, whichever is smaller. The repayment strategy prioritized preserving players’ incomes while ensuring the league’s financial stability. They met this benchmark, and the cap increased $1 million from $81.5 million to $82.5 million for the 22-23 season. The debt then continued to be paid off as league revenues increased and the cap rose again from $82.5 million to $83.5 million for the 23-24 season. Then by the summer before the 24-25 season the debt had been completely paid off, which resulted in the cap increasing by $4.5 million or slightly greater than 5% of the cap due to an agreement between the NHL and NHLPA. This made the upper limit of the cap $88 million for the 24-25 season.

Currently the cap for a season is based on actual revenues from two years prior due to the negotiations made during COVID. Since the escrow debt created during the pandemic is repaid, the two-year lag formula will not reflect this recovery. For the 2024-2025 season, the salary cap does not even reflect the adjusted HRR of approximately $5.8 billion from 2022-2023 because even this was greater than the 5% annual growth limit that was implemented from the COVID CBA. The 2023-2024 revenues exceeded $6.3 billion and 24-25 revenues are projected to be $6.5 to $6.6 billion. If the up-to-date annual revenues factor were in force today, the upper limit of the cap for the 24-25 season would be approximately $116.8 million.

With revenues rebounding, the NHL and NHLPA must decide whether to maintain restrictive measures or allow cap growth to reflect actual revenues. There will be beginnings of CBA negotiations in January.

Two Scenarios:

Dramatic increase

If they decide to keep capping growth at roughly 5% each year until the end of the CBA, the cap would see roughly this projection:

25-26: $92.40 million

-------(end of CBA)---------

26-27: ???? ($110 million?)

The 26-27 amount would most likely not adopt the two-year lag formula and would have to more closely reflect current actual revenues. However, escrow percentages would likely be negotiated in the new CBA to stay at or around 6% which would lower the cap a bit. If the HRR was projected to increase to $6.9 billion for the 26-27 season up from its projection of $6.5 billion in 24-25, then the upper limit of the cap would be $124.0 million, but accounting for the comprise for lower escrow percentages it could be in the range of $110 million which is coincidentally also the number that Friedman reported the cap could possibly jump to at this point.

27-28: ???? ($113.5 million?) If the HRR was projected to increase to $7.1 billion for the 27-28 season, then the upper limit of the cap would be $127.5 million and that would be a $3.5 million increase from $124.0 million of the prior season before accounting for the compromise of lower escrow percentages. $110 million + $3.5 million = $113.5 million.



Gradual increase

If they decide to implement a gradual increase between next year and the following that would result in 26-27 reflecting current HRR:

25-26: $99,000,000 ($110,000,000-$88,000,000= $22,000,000/2(years)= $11,000,000, $88,000,000 (current cap)+$11,000,000 = $99,000,000)

Friedman reported there were talks to increase the cap to $95-$97 million using this same logic but if the cap were to increase to $110 million the following season then $99 million would result in a more evenly distributed increase.

-------(end of CBA)---------

26-27: ???? ($110 million?)

Same reason as above.

27-28: ???? ($113.5 million?)

Same reason as above.



Impacts of a rising cap on the upcoming Trade Deadline and Free Agency

A rapid cap increase will greatly benefit upcoming free agents while depressing the salaries of those locked into older, long-term contracts. This would favor teams with long-term player contracts under older cap figures.

With the cap increasing at such a high rate most players’ salary will no longer be talked about in terms of dollars but instead in terms of percentage of the cap. A player making $10 million in a league where the upper limit is $88 million would be 11.4% of the cap while a player making $10 million in a league where the upper limit is $97 million would only be 10.3% of the cap. I know that difference does not sound like a lot but 11.4% of a $97 million cap would be $11,058,000, so more than a million-dollar difference. Additionally, this would only be the difference for this first year. The cap is projected to grow significantly again next year with continual growth following that. There could be a world where with continual growth the cap is at $131.5 million in 32-33 making the $10 million contract signed in 25-26 only 7.6% of the cap by the end of an 8-year deal. That 7.6% in an $88 million upper limit would be about $6.7 million, so a $3.3 million difference between when it was signed and the last year of the contract.

Another thing to consider is that in a hypothetical where the cap rises to $97 million, many contending teams will then have the extra cap space to resign players that they previously would not have been able to. This would greatly decrease the high-end talent that would enter Free Agency and cause players that would have normally hit FA to just be resigned by their current teams. Here is a look at the upcoming TDL and FA players that could become available:

Possible players available at the TDL (very broad list, not all of these players will be available, also did not include some depth players for brevity)
Possible TDL Forwards:

Name	Handedness	AAV x Term	Age(at TDL)
Laine	R	8.70 x 2 years	26 yrs old
Couture	L	8.00 x 3 years	35 yrs old
Kadri	L	7.00 x 5 years	34 yrs old
Lee	L	7.00 x 2 years	34 yrs old
Giroux	R	6.50 x 1 year	37 yrs old
Gallagher	R	6.50 x 3 years	32 yrs old
Killorn	L	6.25 x 3 years	35 yrs old
Malkin	L	6.10 x 2 years	38 yrs old
Nelson	L	6.00 x 1 year	33 yrs old
Palat	L	6.00 x 3 years	33 yrs old
Hall	L	6.00 x 1 year	33 yrs old
Schmaltz	R	5.85 x 2 years	29 yrs old
Zegras	L	5.75 x 2 years	23 yrs old
Copp	L	5.63 x 3 years	30 yrs old
Kuzmenko	R	5.50 x 1 year	29 yrs old
Schwartz	L	5.50 x 2 years	32 yrs old
Anderson	R	5.50 x 3 years	30 yrs old
Burakovsky	L	5.50 x 3 years	30 yrs old
Teravainen	L	5.40 x 3 years	30 yrs old
Bjorkstrand	R	5.40 x 2 years	29 yrs old
Coyle	R	5.25 x 2 years	33 yrs old
Rust	R	5.13 x 4 years	32 yrs old
Gourde	L	5.16 x 1 year	33 yrs old
Compher	R	5.10 x 4 years	29 yrs old
Granlund	L	5.00 x 1 year	33 yrs old
Palmieri	R	5.00 x 1 year	34 yrs old
Pageau	R	5.00 x 2 years	32 yrs old
Wennberg	L	5.00 x 2 years	30 yrs old
R. Strome	R	5.00 x 3 years	31 yrs old
Zucker	L	5.00 x 1 year	33 yrs old
Farabee	L	5.00 x 4 years	25 yrs old
Rakell	R	5.00 x 4 years	31 yrs old
Coleman	L	4.90 x 3 years	33 yrs old
Tarasenko	L	4.75 x 2 years	33 yrs old
Zacha	L	4.75 x 3 years	27 yrs old
Bunting	L	4.50 x 2 years	29 yrs old
Saad	L	4.50 x 2 years	32 yrs old
Crouse	L	4.30 x 3 years	27 yrs old
Dickinson	L	4.25 x 2 years	29 yrs old
Kane	L	4.00 x 1 year	36 yrs old
Fabbri	L	4.00 x 1 year	29 yrs old
Perron	R	4.00 x 2 years	36 yrs old
Vatrano	L	3.65 x 2 years	30 yrs old
Goodrow	L	3.64 x 3 years	32 yrs old
B. Tanev	L	3.50 x 1 year	33 yrs old
Mantha	L	3.50 x 1 year	30 yrs old
Kerfoot	L	3.50 x 1 year	30 yrs old
Tolvanen	L	3.48 x 2 years	25 yrs old
Nyquist	L	3.185 x 1 year	35 yrs old
Laughton	L	3.00 x 2 years	30 yrs old
Greenway	L	3.00 x 1 year	28 yrs old
M. Joesph	L	2.95 x 2 years	29 yrs old
Cates	L	2.625 x 1 year	26 yrs old
Hathaway	L	2.38 x 1 year	33 yrs old
Frederic	L	2.30 x 1 year	27 yrs old
Frost	L	2.10 x 1 year	25 yrs old
Bjugstad	R	2.10 x 1 year	32 yrs old
Acciari	R	2.00 x 2 years	33 yrs old
Lafferty	R	2.00 x 2 years	33 yrs old
Lomberg	L	2.00 x 2 years	30 yrs old
M. Geekie	R	2.00 x 1 year	26 yrs old
Donato	L	2.00 x 1 year	28 yrs old
Evans	R	1.70 x 1 year	28 yrs old
Krebs	L	1.45 x 2 years	24 yrs old
Maroon	L	1.30 x 1 year	36 yrs old
Beauvillier	L	1.25 x 1 year	27 yrs old
Reichel	L	1.20 x 2 years	22 yrs old
Olivier	R	1.10 x 1 year	28 yrs old
D. O'Connor	L	925k x 1 year	26 yrs old
N. Robertson	L	875k x 1 year	23 yrs old
Berggren	L	825k x 1 year	24 yrs old
Kaliyev	L	825k x 1 year	23 yrs old
Turcotte	L	775k x 3 years	24 yrs old
Carcone	L	775k x 1 year	28 yrs old

Possible TDL Defenseman:

Name	Handedness	AAV x Term	Age(at TDL)
Trouba	R	8.00 x 2 years	31 yrs old
Provorov	L	6.75 x 1 year	28 yrs old
Parayko	R	6.50 x 6 years	31 yrs old
Fowler	L	6.50 x 2 years	33 yrs old
Pulock	R	6.15 x 6 years	30 yrs old
Letang	R	6.10 x 4 years	37 yrs old
Pelech	L	5.75 x 5 years	30 yrs old
Ristolainen	R	5.10 x 3 years	30 yrs old
Matheson	L	4.88 x 2 years	31 yrs old
Oleksiak	L	4.60 x 2 years	32 yrs old
Andersson	R	4.55 x 2 years	28 yrs old
Murphy	R	4.40 x 2 years	31 yrs old
Carlo	R	4.10 x 3 years	28 yrs old
Pettersson	L	4.025 x 1 year	28 yrs old
Leddy	L	4.00 x 2 years	33 yrs old
Gudbranson	R	4.00 x 2 years	33 yrs old
Byram	L	3.85 x 1 year	23 yrs old
Savard	R	3.50 x 1 year	34 yrs old
Walman	L	3.40 x 2 years	29 yrs old
Clifton	R	3.33 x 2 years	29 yrs old
Ferraro	L	3.25 x 2 years	26 yrs old
Ceci	R	3.25 x 1 year	31 yrs old
Dumoulin	L	3.15 x 1 year	33 yrs old
Jokiharju	L	3.10 x 1 year	25 yrs old
Liljegren	R	3.00 x 2 years	25 yrs old
Maatta	L	3.00 x 1 year	30 yrs old
Peeke	R	2.75 x 2 years	26 yrs old
Borgen	R	2.70 x 1 year	28 yrs old
Romanov	R	2.50 x 1 year	25 yrs old
Fabbro	R	2.50 x 1 year	26 yrs old
Lauzon	L	2.00 x 2 years	27 yrs old
Valimaki	L	2.00 x 2 years	26 yrs old
Gustafsson	L	2.00 x 2 years	32 yrs old
Kesselring	R	1.40 x 2 years	25 yrs old
Reilly	L	1.25 x 1 year	31 yrs old
Bahl	L	1.05 x 1 year	24 yrs old
Casey	R	950k x 3 years	21 yrs old
Jiricek	R	918.3k x 2 years	21 yrs old

An important thing to note is that to fully take advantage of the rising cap it will be crucial to sign players to long term deals either at the TDL or in this offseason because the cap will only be going up. Even if players bargain to be paid in percentages of the cap based on the projections for the future year it will still be well worth it as the cap will continue to rise and competition to sign whatever little remaining players that hit FA will be fierce.

The ideal players to be trading for at the TDL are players under the age of 30 and have 2 years or less on their contract so that they could be extended to long contracts either at the TDL or in the offseason. So, if we sort by players that are 30 or younger and have 2 years or less on their deal you would end up with this:

Name	Handedness	AAV x Term	Age(at TDL)
Provorov	L	6.75 x 1 year	28 yrs old
Andersson	R	4.55 x 2 years	28 yrs old
Pettersson	L	4.025 x 1 year	28 yrs old
Byram	L	3.85 x 1 year	23 yrs old
Walman	L	3.40 x 2 years	29 yrs old
Clifton	R	3.33 x 2 years	29 yrs old
Ferraro	L	3.25 x 2 years	26 yrs old
Jokiharju	L	3.10 x 1 year	25 yrs old
Liljegren	R	3.00 x 2 years	25 yrs old
Maatta	L	3.00 x 1 year	30 yrs old
Peeke	R	2.75 x 2 years	26 yrs old
Borgen	R	2.70 x 1 year	28 yrs old
Romanov	R	2.50 x 1 year	25 yrs old
Fabbro	R	2.50 x 1 year	26 yrs old
Lauzon	L	2.00 x 2 years	27 yrs old
Valimaki	L	2.00 x 2 years	26 yrs old
Kesselring	R	1.40 x 2 years	25 yrs old
Bahl	L	1.05 x 1 year	24 yrs old
Casey	R	950k x 3 years	21 yrs old
Jiricek	R	918.3k x 2 years	21 yrs old
Laine	R	8.70 x 2 years	26 yrs old
Schmaltz	R	5.85 x 2 years	29 yrs old
Zegras	L	5.75 x 2 years	23 yrs old
Kuzmenko	R	5.50 x 1 year	29 yrs old
Bjorkstrand	R	5.40 x 2 years	29 yrs old
Wennberg	L	5.00 x 2 years	30 yrs old
Bunting	L	4.50 x 2 years	29 yrs old
Dickinson	L	4.25 x 2 years	29 yrs old
Fabbri	L	4.00 x 1 year	29 yrs old
Vatrano	L	3.65 x 2 years	30 yrs old
Mantha	L	3.50 x 1 year	30 yrs old
Kerfoot	L	3.50 x 1 year	30 yrs old
Tolvanen	L	3.48 x 2 years	25 yrs old
Laughton	L	3.00 x 2 years	30 yrs old
Greenway	L	3.00 x 1 year	28 yrs old
M. Joesph	L	2.95 x 2 years	29 yrs old
Cates	L	2.625 x 1 year	26 yrs old
Frederic	L	2.30 x 1 year	27 yrs old
Frost	L	2.10 x 1 year	25 yrs old
Lomberg	L	2.00 x 2 years	30 yrs old
M. Geekie	R	2.00 x 1 year	26 yrs old
Donato	L	2.00 x 1 year	28 yrs old
Evans	R	1.70 x 1 year	28 yrs old
Krebs	L	1.45 x 2 years	24 yrs old
Beauvillier	L	1.25 x 1 year	27 yrs old
Reichel	L	1.20 x 2 years	22 yrs old
Olivier	R	1.10 x 1 year	28 yrs old
D. O'Connor	L	925k x 1 year	26 yrs old
N. Robertson	L	875k x 1 year	23 yrs old
Berggren	L	825k x 1 year	24 yrs old
Kaliyev	L	825k x 1 year	23 yrs old
Carcone	L	775k x 1 year	28 yrs old

A look ahead at the 2025 Free Agency group shows that it is a pretty underwhelming class. This will only be compounded by the fact that most competitive teams will have the cap to resign their players. The market will be oversaturated with less sought-after players that will have to be overpaid to fill out rosters. This could lead to the TDL prior to FA seeing players go for astronomical prices as teams try to secure their future players before they reach FA.

Unrestricted Free Agents (that were not listed as possible traded players):

Name	Handedness	Previous AAV	Age (by July 1st)
Tavares	L	11.00	34 yrs old
Marner	R	10.90	28 yrs old
Benn	L	9.50	35 yrs old
Rantanen	L	9.25	28 yrs old
Orlov	L	7.75	33 yrs old
Ekblad	R	7.50	29 yrs old
Boeser	R	6.65	28 yrs old
Petry	R	6.25	37 yrs old
Marchand	L	6.13	37 yrs old
Ehlers	L	6.00	29 yrs old
Pionk	R	5.88	29 yrs old
Gavrikov	L	5.88	29 yrs old
Mangiapane	L	5.80	29 yrs old
Smith	L	5.00	34 yrs old
Chychrun	L	4.60	27 yrs old
Lindgren	L	4.50	27 yrs old
Dvorak	L	4.45	29 yrs old
Bennett	L	4.43	29 yrs old
Iafallo	L	4.00	31 yrs old
Armia	R	3.40	32 yrs old
Faksa	L	3.25	31 yrs old
Cole	L	3.00	36 yrs old
Duchene	L	3.00	34 yrs old
Skinner	L	3.00	33 yrs old
Roslovic	R	2.80	28 yrs old
Jeannot	L	2.67	28 yrs old
Drouin	L	2.50	30 yrs old
Eller	L	2.45	36 yrs old
Appleton	R	2.17	29 yrs old
Johansson	L	2.00	34 yrs old
Namestinkov	L	2.00	32 yrs old
Tatar	L	1.80	34 yrs old
Suter	L	1.60	29 yrs old
Kolesar	R	1.40	28 yrs old
Dowd	R	1.30	35 yrs old
N. Schmidt	L	800k	33 yrs old
Pearson	L	775k	32 yrs old
Kovacevic	R	767k	27 yrs old

Who I would target F at the TDL:

Laine

Gourde

Bunting

Granlund

Vatrano

Tolvanen

B. Tanev

Frederic

M. Geekie

D. O’Connor



Who I would target D at the TDL:

Pettersson

Casey

Kesselring

Oleksiak

Pelech

Bahl

Walman

Valimaki



Most Valuable Tradeable assets:

1 2026 1st rd pick

2 2025 2nd rd picks

1 2026 2nd rd pick

Isaac Howard

Ethan Gauthier

Niko Huuhtanen

Dylan Duke



Tampa’s biggest needs:

Luckily most of Tampa’s needs are in depth roles which are easier to replace than top of the lineup players. Additionally, all of Tampa’s top players have been putting up great stats and this would indicate that with some small changes this team could be a serious contender. Tampa will have quite a bit of cap space to work with at this TDL if they keep accruing cap which could lead to them making some big acquisitions.

In my opinion, the bottom pair on defense needs the most help. I love the physicality Lilleberg brings but he is too often out of position and the cause of goals against. Perbix and Raddysh could be serviceable if they played with a competent partner, but neither would be ideal to have in the lineup going into the playoffs.

Next as a priority would be bottom 6 forwards as having Glendening, Girgensons and Atkinson in the lineup is less than ideal. I think Chaffee and Eyssimont are serviceable and Paul and Geekie are elite third line players. The bottom 6 acquired players would ideally be good enough to replace Girgensons or Glendening on the PK, or possibly both. Bottom 6 players could be acquired through the TDL, but they could also come through Syracuse as Duke and Huuhtanen look promising. I think Duke would give our PK the added tenacity it needs. Goncalves is also an intriguing prospect, but I am less certain on his readiness and would like to see him string together some good games. He is playing a more simplified game in the NHL compared to what he was in the AHL which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but he is at his best when he is playing with confidence.

The third priority is unfortunately going to be a lot tougher to fill. Tampa needs a right-shot forward with a booming one timer to fill the hole of Stamkos on the Powerplay. Looking through the players that could be made available at the TDL and FA the only name that stands out is Laine. Laine may or may not be available but if he is, he would fill quite a few boxes being only 26 by the TDL and having only 2 years left on his contract. If Laine is unavailable the only other option would be to hope Huuhtanen is ready for that role at the NHL level. He has the shot so if he can find ways to get open, he should excel.

Here is a roster I created that would be sustainable for the foreseeable future if the cap jumped to $97 million next season:

It is possible that if prices increase dramatically at the TDL to account for the lack of Free agents in the offseason that these payments would not be enough, but this would more or less be the idea. Gourde and Pettersson would be extended at the TDL, and Laine would be extended in the offseason.

Click to read more...

 

[LordStanlersCup]

Now add Kreider to this list I guess

 

[Felonious Python]

ok. cool.

 

[JTBF81]

No thanks on Laine. Weak defensively and overpaid. If they could get DOC and Pettersson from the Pens, that would be great. I'd gp after Kuzmenko or Palmieri if they want a 2nd line F. Gourde could also work for the bottom 6, but only so much space available.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

I actually strained my fingers scrolling through all that. Thanks.

 

[LordStanlersCup]

I actually strained my fingers scrolling through all that. Thanks.

I was going to put a TLDR but this took so long to make I needed someone to suffer with me

 

[DistantThunderRep]

I was going to put a TLDR but this took so long to make I needed someone to suffer with me

I am going to read it fully as my bed time story.

 

[LordStanlersCup]

No thanks on Laine. Weak defensively and overpaid. If they could get DOC and Pettersson from the Pens, that would be great. I'd gp after Kuzmenko or Palmieri if they want a 2nd line F. Gourde could also work for the bottom 6, but only so much space available.

Yes he is currently overpaid and MTL got him practically for free or could even be argued that they were paid to take him. So all of the value in the trade to MTL would be for the 50% retention making him only a $4.35 million cap hit. Yes he is poor defensively but we could put him in sheltered minutes and his shot on the powerplay could single handedly win us games. Kuzmenko and Palmieri are more net front specialists and we kind of already have the niche filled with Guentzel, Hagel and Paul. I wouldn't be opposed to Palmieri in a depth role.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

Considering you must have taken a long time to write all that, I appreciate it. Good post, dude.

This can probably be used as the official TDL thread.

 

[JTBF81]

Yes he is currently overpaid and MTL got him practically for free or could even be argued that they were paid to take him. So all of the value in the trade to MTL would be for the 50% retention making him only a $4.35 million cap hit. Yes he is poor defensively but we could put him in sheltered minutes and his shot on the powerplay could single handedly win us games. Kuzmenko and Palmieri are more net front specialists and we kind of already have the niche filled with Guentzel, Hagel and Paul. I wouldn't be opposed to Palmieri in a depth role.

Palmieri is no good in a depth role, so that would be a waste of a move. Also, just because MTL got Laine for little to nothing doesn't mean they will do the same in moving him. Tampa would have to pay assets both for the significant retention and for the player. He's not the kind they usually target anyway, and another piwerplay merchant who is mediocre defensively didn't work the last two years.

I think they're happy with Paul on the 2nd line when he's healthy, so adding depth to the.middle/bottom 6, at 3LD and at backup G is what I'd do. Something like:
Hagel-Point-Kuch
Guentzel-Cirelli-Paul
DOC-Gourde-Geekie
Ace-Glendening-Chaffee
(With Goncalves rotating in as well)

Hedman-Moser
McD-Cernak
Pettersson-Raddysh/Perbix
This gives the team more depth and 3 solid defensive pairings. Guentzel and Hagel will likely switch plenty, and if needed, Paul can ve back at 3C and Gourde at 4C or 3RW.

 

[LordStanlersCup]

Palmieri is no good in a depth role, so that would be a waste of a move. Also, just because MTL got Laine for little to nothing doesn't mean they will do the same in moving him. Tampa would have to pay assets both for the significant retention and for the player. He's not the kind they usually target anyway, and another piwerplay merchant who is mediocre defensively didn't work the last two years.

I think they're happy with Paul on the 2nd line when he's healthy, so adding depth to the.middle/bottom 6, at 3LD and at backup G is what I'd do. Something like:
Hagel-Point-Kuch
Guentzel-Cirelli-Paul
DOC-Gourde-Geekie
Ace-Glendening-Chaffee
(With Goncalves rotating in as well)

Hedman-Moser
McD-Cernak
Pettersson-Raddysh/Perbix
This gives the team more depth and 3 solid defensive pairings. Guentzel and Hagel will likely switch plenty, and if needed, Paul can ve back at 3C and Gourde at 4C or 3RW.

I mean I don't even know if Laine would be available I am just speculating but if Laine's play doesn't improve in MTL I don't know why his acquisition cost would go up, teams would only be paying for the retention and $4mil of retention would be about a 2nd rd pick so now factoring in that his contract has 2 years left would mean 2 2nds. This team obviously needs a right-shot for the left side on the powerplay and there is really no other options available.
That lineup looks fine but it really needs a right-shot for the PP, would need to incorporate Huuhtanen somehow into that roster.

 

[Hoek]

Tried to get ChatGPT to help summarize, lol.

This forum post provides an in-depth explanation of the NHL salary cap system, focusing on its evolution, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and potential future changes as the league’s financial situation improves.

Key Points:​

1. Two Scenarios for Future Cap Growth:
   • Dramatic Increase: If the cap is gradually increased, projections suggest the cap could reach approximately $113.5 million by the 2027-2028 season.
   • Gradual Increase: If the cap is raised more quickly, it could reach $99 million by the 2025-2026 season and $110 million by 2026-2027.
2. Impact on Trade Deadline and Free Agency:
   • A higher salary cap will benefit upcoming free agents, as contracts will be measured as a smaller percentage of the cap, meaning more players will be signed for similar dollar amounts.
   • Teams with long-term contracts under old cap figures will benefit, while contending teams may have more room to retain players, reducing high-end talent in free agency.
   • The rising cap presents opportunities for teams to sign players to long-term contracts, particularly those under 30 years old with 2 years or less remaining on their deals.
3. Upcoming Trade Deadline (TDL) and Free Agent Considerations:
   • The post lists possible trade deadline and free agency candidates, with a focus on players under 30 with short-term contracts who could be extended.

Tampa's Biggest Needs:​

1. Bottom-Pair Defenseman:
   Tampa’s defense depth is a concern, especially on the bottom pairing. Players like Lilleberg, while physical, are often out of position, leading to goals against. Perbix and Raddysh are seen as serviceable, but neither is ideal for a playoff run without a better partner. Therefore, strengthening the bottom pair on defense is a priority.
2. Bottom-Six Forwards:
   The bottom six lacks ideal contributors, with players like Glendening, Girgensons, and Atkinson not being ideal for Tampa’s needs, particularly on the penalty kill. Tampa has Chaffee and Eyssimont as serviceable options, and Paul and Geekie are considered elite third-line players. Tampa also has promising young prospects like Duke and Huuhtanen, who could help improve the bottom six and bring more tenacity, especially to the penalty kill.
3. Right-Shot Forward for Power Play:
   With Stamkos potentially sidelined or not playing his usual role on the power play, Tampa needs a right-shot forward with a strong one-timer to replace him. Laine is a key target for this need, as he has a powerful shot and could fill this role effectively. However, if Laine is unavailable, Huuhtanen could be an internal option, given his shot if he’s ready for the NHL role.

Targeted Players at the Trade Deadline (TDL):​

• Forwards: Tampa is eyeing several players to bolster their forward depth, particularly for the bottom six. Potential targets include:
  • Patrik Laine (Columbus Blue Jackets) – if available, would address the need for a power-play one-timer specialist.
  • Yanni Gourde (Seattle Kraken) – for added grit and leadership.
  • Michael Bunting (Toronto Maple Leafs) – provides scoring and physicality.
  • Mikael Granlund (Pittsburgh Penguins) – versatile forward with a solid two-way game.
  • Frank Vatrano (Anaheim Ducks) – brings speed and offensive production.
  • Eeli Tolvanen (Seattle Kraken) – adds scoring potential.
  • Brandon Tanev (Seattle Kraken) – a physical presence for the bottom six.
  • Trent Frederic (Boston Bruins) – offers toughness and PK ability.
  • Morgan Geekie (Boston Bruins) – an option for adding depth.
  • Drew O’Connor (Pittsburgh Penguins) – another versatile depth forward.
• Defensemen: Tampa needs a bottom-pair defenseman, and potential targets include:
  • Marcus Pettersson (Pittsburgh Penguins) – a solid defensive option.
  • Casey (Pittsburgh Penguins) – another defensive piece for depth.
  • Kesselring (Edmonton Oilers) – a potential bottom-pairing option.
  • Jamie Oleksiak (Seattle Kraken) – a physical presence for the third pair.
  • Adam Pelech (New York Islanders) – steady defensive depth.
  • Nathan Bahl (New Jersey Devils) – a possible target for depth.
  • Jake Walman (Detroit Red Wings) – adds physicality and defensive stability.
  • Juuso Valimaki (Arizona Coyotes) – an affordable defensive depth option.

Tradeable Assets:​

Tampa has valuable assets for a potential trade:

• 2026 1st-round pick
• 2025 2nd-round picks (2 total)
• 2026 2nd-round pick
• Prospects: Isaac Howard, Ethan Gauthier, Niko Huuhtanen, and Dylan Duke.

 

[LordStanlersCup]

Tried to get ChatGPT to help summarize, lol.

it added some things in there but close enough lol

 

[Major4Boarding]

I agree on 1 that we need another Dman. However I’m leaning on another 3-4 guy to push Cernak, Lille, Perbix, and Raddysh down (or out, regarding the last 3)

I disagree on 2 - Glendening is ideal imo, Atkinson and Girgensons not-so-much, and agree on 3 - but no to Laine

It’s all kind of wishful hope though, and I think the bottom six help comes organically. Just a bit longer though for the next level jump

As equally important as another 3-4 dman is a back up netminder too

 

[LordStanlersCup]

I agree on 1 that we need another Dman. However I’m leaning on another 3-4 guy to push Cernak, Lille, Perbix, and Raddysh down (or out, regarding the last 3)

I disagree on 2 - Glendening is ideal imo, Atkinson and Girgensons not-so-much, and agree on 3 - but no to Laine

It’s all kind of wishful hope though, and I think the bottom six help comes organically. Just a bit longer though for the next level jump

As equally important as another 3-4 dman is a back up netminder too

Pettersson could play top 4 but I don't think he has ever played on the right. If we get a top 4 RD we would be stacked on the right side but if McDonagh retires after his contract is up then we would be looking for another top 4 LD pretty soon. Cernak makes some mistakes but I think he is useable in a top 4 role.

Glendening is better than the other two but it just feels like he isn't impactful enough 5v5. Great faceoff guy and is willing to block shots but is just too slow and in the playoffs its the fast forecheckers that make the difference in the bottom 6.

I know Laine isn't ideal but that's literally the only option unless Huuhtanen is ready. They tried Pointer on the left side with Guentzel in the bumper this game and it worked so I would be interested to see if they go back to that.

Yeah I didn't talk about goalies at all in this because it was getting kind of long but I would be interested to see what Halverson can do. If they can find a decent backup option making near league min for a 3rd rd pick they should do it.

 

[Rschmitz]

Sprained my neck reading this, but I appreciate your effort.

A Yanni Gourde type on the third line would be excellent, but I wouldn’t touch the defense unless it’s just a deal too good to pass up.

Geekie is our top 6 guy of the future, I don’t see us making a deal for a project when we already have one.

The TV broadcast did a nice job last night discussing our PP problem and not having a Stamkos replacement ie an elite right handed shot. At the end of the day, you just gotta change up how it’s set up.

 

[Lightning1995]

Before prioritizing a RH shot to fix the PP, gotta give it more time IMO. Still so much talent out there I’m hoping they can figure it out. If a RH can be added organically to plug into a top 6 role, pushing Paul to 3C I’d like that. Pushes everyone down, maybe a 4th line with Ace Gladening Goncalves would work? Easier said than done though.

Agree a LHD 3rd pairing is probably needed.

Thanks for all the info, good stuff

 

[LordStanlersCup]

Sprained my neck reading this, but I appreciate your effort.

A Yanni Gourde type on the third line would be excellent, but I wouldn’t touch the defense unless it’s just a deal too good to pass up.

Geekie is our top 6 guy of the future, I don’t see us making a deal for a project when we already have one.

The TV broadcast did a nice job last night discussing our PP problem and not having a Stamkos replacement ie an elite right handed shot. At the end of the day, you just gotta change up how it’s set up.

I could agree that maybe we don't need another RD but Lilleberg can't be in the lineup come playoffs. Also his 80th career game will be coming up soon so he will no longer be waiver inelligible, that will probably be a deciding point.

When they tried Pointer on the left side with Guentzel in the bumper last game it worked so that will hopefully be the easy fix.

 

[Rschmitz]

I could agree that maybe we don't need another RD but Lilleberg can't be in the lineup come playoffs. Also his 80th career game will be coming up soon so he will no longer be waiver elligible, that will probably be a deciding point.

When they tried Pointer on the left side with Guentzel in the bumper last game it worked so that will hopefully be the easy fix.

It did, lets see if they stick with it.

 

[LordStanlersCup]

Another player that could make sense for Tampa that I didn't think would be available when I made the list is Kakko. He has been on one of the best statistical lines in the league with Chytil and Cuylle and would be a great young 2 way player on a good contract. He is the only one Rangers fans seem upset that he is available.

 

[These Are The Days]

Another player that could make sense for Tampa that I didn't think would be available when I made the list is Kakko. He has been on one of the best statistical lines in the league with Chytil and Cuylle and would be a great young 2 way player on a good contract. He is the only one Rangers fans seem upset that he is available.

If Kakko weren’t a 2nd overall no one would care about that guy. That's not a slight against you either. It's just that a player can live off his draft status for like 10 years before anyone stops thinking "but omg the pOTENTiALz!"

If we're fishing for Rangers give me Kreider. Park that big bitch in front of the net and raise hell

 

[Felonious Python]

 

[Rschmitz]

If Kakko weren’t a 2nd overall no one would care about that guy. That's not a slight against you either. It's just that a player can live off his draft status for like 10 years before anyone stops thinking "but omg the pOTENTiALz!"

If we're fishing for Rangers give me Kreider. Park that big bitch in front of the net and raise hell

Rags would need to retain 50% for us to consider, so out of our price range.

Would be great on the PP but 5v5 I’m not sure where you stick him

 

[LordStanlersCup]

If Kakko weren’t a 2nd overall no one would care about that guy. That's not a slight against you either. It's just that a player can live off his draft status for like 10 years before anyone stops thinking "but omg the pOTENTiALz!"

If we're fishing for Rangers give me Kreider. Park that big bitch in front of the net and raise hell

He has one of the highest on-ice goals % in the league and would be good for 40 points on a good contract. He will probably never live up to the 2nd OA hype but if the asking price is reasonable he would be a good addition.

 

[Rschmitz]

He has one of the highest on-ice goals % in the league and would be good for 40 points on a good contract. He will probably never live up to the 2nd OA hype but if the asking price is reasonable he would be a good addition.

I think Kakko would be perfect on our second line, but at what cost? A 2nd and mid tier prospect I'd do it. Worst case scenario he's going to provide quality depth on our third line.