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Player Discussion Ilya Samsonov [#35] discussion

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You can tell everything about where he’s at by body language alone. He was wild in there to start, over compensating, small in the net. It is worrying he can look so different so quickly, but I think Keefe has made up his mind. Fingers crossed.
 
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Hope Samsonov finds success somewhere but I think we seriously need to address our goaltending and go after Saros in the summer. 1st, Robertson + whatever it takes. Then run Saros - Woll/Hildeby next season.
 
Goaltending is a big big problem going into the playoffs. Samsonov and Woll are bad, very bad.
 
Samsonov vs either Boston or Florida goaltending.

1713368791165.png


VS.

1713368995329.png


Florida Goalies ranked #3 and #5 BEST in Goals Saved above expected and Boston sit #4 and #6 over while Leafs starting goalie is ranked #87 and -8.1 GSAx.

GSAx measures the total number of goals a goalie saves above what is expected.

Leafs going into either series with one hand tied behind their back at the most influential position,
 
Mess said:
Samsonov vs either Boston or Florida goaltending.

View attachment 853749

VS.

View attachment 853754

Florida Goalies ranked #3 and #5 BEST in Goals Saved above expected and Boston sit #4 and #6 over while Leafs starting goalie is ranked #87 and -8.1 GSAx.

GSAx measures the total number of goals a goalie saves above what is expected.

Leafs going into either series with one hand tied behind their back at the most influential position,
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It is going to be a sweep. Our goaltending frightening bad.
 
Sammy enters the playoffs with a 3.13 GAA (38th overall) and .890 sv% (45th overall)

1713375689361.png


Last year during the playoffs those current numbers essentially parallel his stats of 3.13 GAA and .898 sv%.

1713375973075.png


That suggest Leafs are going have to go into the series thinking they will need > 3 goals for to offset the 3 GAA expected from their own goalie.
 
Mess said:
That suggest Leafs are going have to go into the series thinking they will need > 3 goals for to offset the 3 GAA expected from their own goalie.
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This year vs. Swayman. 1,2,1 goals.
 
HamiltonNHL said:
This year vs. Swayman. 1,2,1 goals.
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I wouldn't be surprised if Boston through away yesterday's game so they could face Sammy and Toronto as opposed to Vasilevskiy and TB..

They have a massage advantage in net in the head to head comparison.

1713377157594.png


Boston only average's 2.5 GAA per game regardless of goalie in net and those game results above further support that.

The wild card in the series is Auston Matthews for Toronto, but if Boston holds him in check then it will be a heavy lift for Toronto with current goaltending to come out on top. IMO
 
Mess said:
The wild card in the series is Auston Matthews for Toronto
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His shooting is less available in the post season with people putting their bodies on the line blocking shots.
We will need some scrambles in front of Swayman to have a chance.
 
I still don't fully trust him, but he showed up and held the team in the biggest game of the season. Couple big saves in there as well. Stephen if you are reading this it looks like Sammy start again worked out. I still think Woll can step in and do the job we will need him if we go deep or if things go South.
 
Still can't believe that one scramble in the 3rd period where Sammy was spun around and Matthews corralled the puck under a pad wasn't blown dead until 2 business days had passed. Not sure what the refs were doing
 
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HellasLEAF said:
I still don't fully trust him, but he showed up and held the team in the biggest game of the season. Couple big saves in there as well. Stephen if you are reading this it looks like Sammy start again worked out. I still think Woll can step in and do the job we will need him if we go deep or if things go South.
Click to expand...

Woll is a good goalie for the future but he hasn't been great since coming back from that injury and I wouldn't play him unless Samsonov is injured.

Sometimes it is better to have clarity and certainty in net than having two good goalies. Boston kind of f***ed with Ullmark and Swayman. When Swayman loses Game 3, they're going to be stuck with 2 goalies who have lost their last playoff game and not know which one is better to go with.
 
I have major confidence issues with Samsonov, but yesterday was quite similar to a few of his performances in the Tampa series last season - if he can draw belief from it, and continue in that mold, the Leafs have a chance.

They don't need him to be better than Boston's goalies, they just need to make sure he makes the saves he's supposed to make, and not give up the backbreakers.
 
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Little shocked weve went with Samsonov and not Woll. I though Woll was excellent last playoffs and this past season Wolls high danger and medium danger stats are among the leagues best. While Samsonovs are among the worst.

Also another year of wasted development for him. One silver lining to losing would be him getting experience under his belt.
 
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Antropovsky said:
Little shocked weve went with Samsonov and not Woll. I though Woll was excellent last playoffs and this past season Wolls high danger and medium danger stats are among the leagues best. While Samsonovs are among the worst.

Also another year of wasted development for him. One silver lining to losing would be him getting experience under his belt.
Click to expand...

Well the high ankle sprain didn't really help. He has hardly played since then and hasn't looked great.
 
Antropovsky said:
Little shocked weve went with Samsonov and not Woll. I though Woll was excellent last playoffs and this past season Wolls high danger and medium danger stats are among the leagues best. While Samsonovs are among the worst.

Also another year of wasted development for him. One silver lining to losing would be him getting experience under his belt.
Click to expand...
Getting experience and wasted development are opposing things.

Which sad silver lining are you wanting to highlight here?
 
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