If London, ONT got a Stadium?

[WingsFan95]

I get that talk of London, Ontario getting an NHL team is typically rare in large part due to there being no NHL size stadium in place. However imagine if there was, the market would make more sense than half the existing league.

London, Ontario itself is home to over 500,000 in the metro area however it is sufficiently away from any active NHL market and would be able to pull in Kitchener being an hour away with nearly the same population size for well over a million in general. Adding in Hamilton within an hour and a half drive and all other small cities would push the total number of potential fans to over 2 million.

Now that's just raw numbers. The city has been home to the London Knights of the OHL since 1965 playing at a 9,000 seat stadium since 2002. That stadium has consistently sold well at higher than league average prices. It is this fanbase that should hold a lot of weight in determining the potential of an NHL market.

When the Canadian Dollar was at par to the USD, (something that would undoubtedly have to be in place along with a 16,000+ seat stadium) a few studies were done to determine how many teams Canada would reasonably support on top of the 6 teams at the time. After Hamilton, Winnipeg and Quebec City, London was the clear 4th choice. Having said that it would absolutely be ahead of Quebec City by most metrics except having previously had an NHL team and of course if Hamilton doesn't have a team it's clearly to the advantage of London.

Hamilton's biggest issue in acquiring a team was the geographic proximity of existing markets Toronto and Buffalo. London would not be in that geographic dispute, at least not by earlier precedents. It's current NHL allegiance is tilted towards the Detroit Red Wings, nearly 200kms away and of course in a foreign country. Toronto is basically the same distance while Buffalo is slightly moreso. Hamilton lies well within 100kms let alone miles of Toronto and as such would indeed encroach on their market, which is why Markham went belly up.

Now, it obviously doesn't have to be through expansion. The Coyotes, Panthers and Senators (with arena issues) provide very reasonable relocation opportunities.

So the only question remains, if London got or had plans for a 16,000+ seat arena, would they be the go to or even close?

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[Bixby Snyder]

Seriously, why would the NHL want a team in London ONT?

 

[Dirty Old Man]

dreaming.....dreaming is free....

 

[Barclay Donaldson]

So the only question remains, if London got or had plans for a 16,000+ seat arena, would they be the go to or even close?

There's other markets that already have arenas, had people think the NHL ought to go there, and didn't get a NHL team, see Kansas City, Hamilton, Quebec City, Portland, Milwaukee, etc. That isn't how the NHL works.

 

[JETZZZ]

This is how I see it working:
-London finds a rich potential owner willing to put a team there
-Potential owner spends $500,000,000 building a brand new-state-of-the-art arena
-Potential owner waits a few years/several decades for an eastern conference team that needs to relocate, meanwhile investing tens of millions of dollars or so to keep arena modern enough for the NHL to consider
-Potential owner has to outbid all other potential ownership groups who want said team (probably around a billion dollars) + pay Toronto/Buffalo a fee for putting a team so close to them (probably another billion dollars)
-Potential owner despite investing in new arena/offering at lest $2 billion, still loses bid for relocated franchise to Atlanta, Houston, or Quebec City

 

[Killer Orcas]

Seriously, why would the NHL want a team in London ONT?

Will they get a team no but if they did have one it would most likely be more profitable then most USA based teams especially if dollar was anywhere near par.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Short answer: probably not even close. Support for major junior teams and support for an NHL team are different things; the existence of it for the former doesn't imply sufficient existence for the latter.

 

[WingsFan95]

Wow eh? Negative nellies much? The London area also has a lot of guaranteed incomes like pensioners and quite a bit of wealth in general.

There's other markets that already have arenas, had people think the NHL ought to go there, and didn't get a NHL team, see Kansas City, Hamilton, Quebec City, Portland, Milwaukee, etc. That isn't how the NHL works.

Hamilton and Quebec have issues long discussed on these boards. Their potential income would seemingly be less than London while encroaching on a big market.

Kansas City and Portland do not have anywhere near what could be defined as a strong hockey market. That leaves Milwuakee which is quite saturated with 3 professional sports teams and an established culture.

So basically none of those alternates are better than London if as I said in the OP, London had a stadium.

This is how I see it working:
-London finds a rich potential owner willing to put a team there
-Potential owner spends $500,000,000 building a brand new-state-of-the-art arena
-Potential owner waits a few years/several decades for an eastern conference team that needs to relocate, meanwhile investing tens of millions of dollars or so to keep arena modern enough for the NHL to consider
-Potential owner has to outbid all other potential ownership groups who want said team (probably around a billion dollars) + pay Toronto/Buffalo a fee for putting a team so close to them (probably another billion dollars)
-Potential owner despite investing in new arena/offering at lest $2 billion, still loses bid for relocated franchise to Atlanta, Houston, or Quebec City

I already stated there's no reason they would be paying Buffalo or Toronto considering the geographic location of London.

The proposed Markham Arena a few years ago was at a cost of $325 million with a 20,000 seating capacity. The City of London's 2019 budget outlines 2.3 billion is generated through property tax revenue. You could feasibly propose a 300 million facility with an owner financing 200 million and the city the rest. Markham's Arena proposal had the financing group support half of the 325 million and was voted down 11-2. The biggest problem was the competition with Toronto however. Such competition which would simply not exist in London.

Right now, concert tickets for the London arena depending on the act are pretty much on par with the downtown Toronto arena. And overall downtown London would be classified as ripe for a core entertainment venue.

So again, if the dollar is on par and a stadium is there, London, Ontario would be a great relocation spot especially if more than 1 team is looking to move.

 

[Barclay Donaldson]

Wow eh? Negative nellies much? The London area also has a lot of guaranteed incomes like pensioners and quite a bit of wealth in general.

Negative nellies no. Realistic minded people yes.

Hamilton and Quebec have issues long discussed on these boards. Their potential income would seemingly be less than London while encroaching on a big market.

Kansas City and Portland do not have anywhere near what could be defined as a strong hockey market. That leaves Milwuakee which is quite saturated with 3 professional sports teams and an established culture.

So basically none of those alternates are better than London if as I said in the OP, London had a stadium.

London supports one of the most successful major junior teams in history with tickets a fraction of the price of a NHL ticket. Just because a city does this and has a bit of money doesn’t make it special.

NHL won’t go there because it adds no new hockey fans, which is what they’re all about since it strengthens the league. Already hockey fans there, no point in putting a NHL team there. Especially smack dab in between two of the teams with the biggest fan bases in the league.

On the list of the NHL’s Wish List, a team in London is on page 61 behind “Get Don Cherry a normal suit” and “Get Sean Avery out of retirement.”

Both were pointed out by many people to be good markets, like you have done with London. Except there’s not many people pointing out London, for obvious reasons. Just you. And both actually have arenas. They didn’t get teams.

KC was guaranteed a team. One Mario Lemieux signature away. A state of the art arena built just for them. They didn’t get a team. Portland also has incredible support for a major junior team. And Portland has much more corporate support to draw from and a much bigger population base. And an arena. They’d beat out London. Milwaukee has only 2 competitors in the Brewers and Bucks, and a well supported minor league in a state that has a high participation rate in hockey and is a very popular sport.

They’re not going to get a team even if they get a stadium. The owners have money. If they wanted to upgrade their arena to meet NHL standards and bring in a NHL team, they would’ve done it already. It’s not gonna happen.

 

[93LEAFS]

Having lived in London for 5 years, they don't have the economic base to support an NHL team.

One, I don't see any way they could finance an arena. They don't have the tax base to do it, and I can't see a private owner seeing the interest. It's not a city that will be a major go to on the concert market, where they can rely on selling those out and use the NHL team as a filler. The gap between Knights tickets and NHL tickets is massive. I was paying about 20 bucks a game for Tickets at the gate in the lower bowl between 2007-2012. That buys me one and a half beers at the ACC.

Finally, what does London do to increase ratings and how much can they sell their local rights for? I don't see them being a major draw and will be nothing but filler in regards to the National TV (they provide more games, but don't really add much value to the overall ratings).

London, Ontario is a great junior hockey town, but it isn't a major league city.

At the end of the day, the only way Southern Ontario gets a second team is if they figure out how to make Toronto 2 work.

 

[93LEAFS]

Wow eh? Negative nellies much? The London area also has a lot of guaranteed incomes like pensioners and quite a bit of wealth in general.



Hamilton and Quebec have issues long discussed on these boards. Their potential income would seemingly be less than London while encroaching on a big market.

Kansas City and Portland do not have anywhere near what could be defined as a strong hockey market. That leaves Milwuakee which is quite saturated with 3 professional sports teams and an established culture.

So basically none of those alternates are better than London if as I said in the OP, London had a stadium.



I already stated there's no reason they would be paying Buffalo or Toronto considering the geographic location of London.

The proposed Markham Arena a few years ago was at a cost of $325 million with a 20,000 seating capacity. The City of London's 2019 budget outlines 2.3 billion is generated through property tax revenue. You could feasibly propose a 300 million facility with an owner financing 200 million and the city the rest. Markham's Arena proposal had the financing group support half of the 325 million and was voted down 11-2. The biggest problem was the competition with Toronto however. Such competition which would simply not exist in London.

Right now, concert tickets for the London arena depending on the act are pretty much on par with the downtown Toronto arena. And overall downtown London would be classified as ripe for a core entertainment venue.

So again, if the dollar is on par and a stadium is there, London, Ontario would be a great relocation spot especially if more than 1 team is looking to move.

London can sell concert tickets to Students in town, and do well. They are unlikely to have the type of businesses that will sell out corporate boxes for 41 games a year. They'd also have significant issues just getting the amount of season ticket holders to pay the 4 to 5 grand a year to be healthy. The 80,000 students between Western and Fanshawe are unlikely to buy anything more than a one-off event. There entertainment dollars are still going to go primarily to Barney's and Ceeps.

London doesn't have the surrounding community. You can't rely on Kitchener people continually driving an hour each way and expect them to be season ticket holders. London would be by far the smallest market to have an NHL team, when you factor in the metropolitan area. If you think Quebec City has issues with pre-existing franchises, London is closer to Toronto and Detroit than MTL is to QC. Toronto is also highly unlikely to cut you in favorably for a regional TV, which means you will probably have the smallest broadcast region in the league.

 

[Barclay Donaldson]

London can sell concert tickets to Students in town, and do well. They are unlikely to have the type of businesses that will sell out corporate boxes for 41 games a year. They'd also have significant issues just getting the amount of season ticket holders to pay the 4 to 5 grand a year to be healthy. The 80,000 students between Western and Fanshawe are unlikely to buy anything more than a one-off event. There entertainment dollars are still going to go primarily to Barney's and Ceeps.

London doesn't have the surrounding community. You can't rely on Kitchener people continually driving an hour each way and expect them to be season ticket holders. London would be by far the smallest market to have an NHL team, when you factor in the metropolitan area. If you think Quebec City has issues with pre-existing franchises, London is closer to Toronto and Detroit than MTL is to QC. Toronto is also highly unlikely to cut you in favorably for a regional TV, which means you will probably have the smallest broadcast region in the league.

Metro London is also more comparable in size and business presence to Halifax than it is to Quebec City and Hamilton. All these previously mentioned American markets have quadrupole the population, more money, and better TV deals and corporate box support, which is where the real money is. Too many people like the OP who don’t realize the difference between a great major junior market and a NHL one.

 

[Dead Coyote]

London can sell concert tickets to Students in town, and do well. They are unlikely to have the type of businesses that will sell out corporate boxes for 41 games a year. They'd also have significant issues just getting the amount of season ticket holders to pay the 4 to 5 grand a year to be healthy. The 80,000 students between Western and Fanshawe are unlikely to buy anything more than a one-off event. There entertainment dollars are still going to go primarily to Barney's and Ceeps.

London doesn't have the surrounding community. You can't rely on Kitchener people continually driving an hour each way and expect them to be season ticket holders. London would be by far the smallest market to have an NHL team, when you factor in the metropolitan area. If you think Quebec City has issues with pre-existing franchises, London is closer to Toronto and Detroit than MTL is to QC. Toronto is also highly unlikely to cut you in favorably for a regional TV, which means you will probably have the smallest broadcast region in the league.

Uh, the Knights already sell enough STH for 3-5K to be supported. The wait list for STH in London is easily over 1000 right now. A lot of those people would probably purchase tickets for an NHL team at a reasonable price, given how expensive TOR is.

Corporate boxes are generally fairly sold out here, although they change a fair bit. The colleges have some, but so do the nurses, hospitals, teachers and businesses like Convergys/Stream, Harveys, etc.

I'm not sure if you're aware but the Ceeps/Barney's aren't exactly super popular entertainment here at the moment.

I don't really know if it's possible that TOR ever lets a new franchise in so close, but I don't think DET cares that much. Most people here are MTL or TOR fans, not DET, though there are a fair few. The "advantage" of a team in London would be that newcomers probably have more of a reason to get behind a new team than a storied one, and that fans from Guelph, Windsor, NIA, Kitchener, Sarnia etc would probably be more willing to go to LON than TOR for NHL hockey.

I don't think it's likely but maybe Melnyk will sell OTT to someone and they get relocated. Or Edmonton will cave. Fantasy, but plausible.

 

[SlickHands]

Having been to London on a few occasions, it's absolutely never going to be the type of market the NHL would consider, unless something drastically changes. Would they have more fans in the seats than a few teams out there right now? Maybe. But Winnipeg was already the NHL's great concession to your smaller Canadian market, and they aren't London small. And London, as you mentioned, has the disadvantage of being in 2-3 hour driving distance of 3 NHL teams, with no major corporate players HQ'ed there, and no added perks (not a hot market, not an attractive destination by any definition), it's just never going to happen. There are more deserving markets in Canada, and I don't see the league even looking north of the border any time soon.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

You asked:

So the only question remains, if London got or had plans for a 16,000+ seat arena, would they be the go to or even close?

And after a few people pretty clearly indicated no, you respond with:

Wow eh? Negative nellies much? The London area also has a lot of guaranteed incomes like pensioners and quite a bit of wealth in general.

If you're going to ask a question, be ready for the answers you get. If you don't like them, then don't ask the question in the first place and definitely don't blame everyone else for not giving the answers you were hoping for.

London, Ontario is a great place that supports hockey. It just has a limit to what it can support, and an OHL team is about it. An NHL team will struggle there; yeah, you might get 19K fans in the seats but you're not getting people putting up money for corporate boxes, club boxes, etc. - and corporations in the GTA aren't putting down big-time money for luxury boxes for an arena an hour and a half plus away. And, I doubt you're getting people putting up $250-300 or more every night to sit down low in the prime seats.

 

[93LEAFS]

Uh, the Knights already sell enough STH for 3-5K to be supported. The wait list for STH in London is easily over 1000 right now. A lot of those people would probably purchase tickets for an NHL team at a reasonable price, given how expensive TOR is.

Corporate boxes are generally fairly sold out here, although they change a fair bit. The colleges have some, but so do the nurses, hospitals, teachers and businesses like Convergys/Stream, Harveys, etc.

I'm not sure if you're aware but the Ceeps/Barney's aren't exactly super popular entertainment here at the moment.

I don't really know if it's possible that TOR ever lets a new franchise in so close, but I don't think DET cares that much. Most people here are MTL or TOR fans, not DET, though there are a fair few. The "advantage" of a team in London would be that newcomers probably have more of a reason to get behind a new team than a storied one, and that fans from Guelph, Windsor, NIA, Kitchener, Sarnia etc would probably be more willing to go to LON than TOR for NHL hockey.

I don't think it's likely but maybe Melnyk will sell OTT to someone and they get relocated. Or Edmonton will cave. Fantasy, but plausible.

The price of Knights tickets isn't comparable to an NHL franchise. NHL franchises while also more expensive also have more home games (7 a year) London would need to sell at a fairly expensive price because they have basically a non-existent television market. At best you will get from Kitchener then West to Windsor. No way Toronto gives you shared TV rights in the region, which is why Ottawa has an extremely small TV presence in Ontario (Leafs refused to split the region). I can't see Windsor choosing London over Detroit for games. Guelph will clearly still be a Toronto television region, and likely Kitchener too (its basically between the two). That leaves you with essentially Sarnia and Chatham-Kent to rely upon.

Ceeps was dead except Tuesday's, but Barney's patio was always the spot in spring/summer. I just don't see how London can realistically support NHL level prices. The difference between lower bowl seats for the Knights and lower bowl in an NHL arena is about 4 to 5 Knights games. That's a massive increase. How many Knights fans can realistically spend that. I don't see how you can rely heavily on the Businesses mentioned to pay what the average NHL team charges for a corporate box.

London is a great junior market, but can't justify anything more than an AHL team (and I'm sure they'd rather the Knights). London has nowhere near the supporting surrounding area.

 

[93LEAFS]

Having been to London on a few occasions, it's absolutely never going to be the type of market the NHL would consider, unless something drastically changes. Would they have more fans in the seats than a few teams out there right now? Maybe. But Winnipeg was already the NHL's great concession to your smaller Canadian market, and they aren't London small. And London, as you mentioned, has the disadvantage of being in 2-3 hour driving distance of 3 NHL teams, with no major corporate players HQ'ed there, and no added perks (not a hot market, not an attractive destination by any definition), it's just never going to happen. There are more deserving markets in Canada, and I don't see the league even looking north of the border any time soon.

Winnipeg also got access to a larger television footprint. As they got to share Northern Western- Ontario (Thunder Bay/ Kenora) with the Leafs, Sask with Flames and Oilers, and get all of Manitoba. The only clear markets London would get is Windsor and Sarnia. TV rights in Kitchener/Waterloo/Cambridge would be disputed, and probably go to the Leafs (as it's between the two cities) and Leafs have an established fan base there.

 

[WingsFan95]

I'm definetly looking at this from the bottom 10 NHL teams perspective where the canadian dollar is 90 cents or above. A London team could charge half the ticket price of the Leafs and that alone generating interest.

I don't see how Kitchener would be blacked out for London games. They'd show both like in the GTA with the Sens. TSN has 5 feeds for a reason and that's ever dwindling cable.

Maybe I'm looking forward a bit much but VPNs allow people to watch any team they want. Blackouts are going to be history for most people soon enough.

Now lack of corporate interest has been brought up numerous times. Here's a link to growing London based businesses:
London, Ont.'s Fastest-Growing Companies: 2017 PROFIT 500

Why Tech Companies are Moving to London Ontario - Perspective

If the number is 600 million. Then no. But when I see financials for the Panthers or Hurricanes let alone "others" I'm not seeing London having a problem supporting a team.

If you're going to ask a question, be ready for the answers you get. If you don't like them, then don't ask the question in the first place and definitely don't blame everyone else for not giving the answers you were hoping for.

London, Ontario is a great place that supports hockey. It just has a limit to what it can support, and an OHL team is about it. An NHL team will struggle there; yeah, you might get 19K fans in the seats but you're not getting people putting up money for corporate boxes, club boxes, etc. - and corporations in the GTA aren't putting down big-time money for luxury boxes for an arena an hour and a half plus away. And, I doubt you're getting people putting up $250-300 or more every night to sit down low in the prime seats.

In a discussion I believe one is allowed to make a quip or two. I don't expect the average hockey fan to know the ins and outs of London, Ont. That's all.

If we're comparing MLSE revenue to a London franchise that's simply not the end all be all. There's only so many seats at the ACC/Scotiabank. And 1-2hrs of driving for people like myself is nothing when price differential is justified. A lot of people were willing to drive more than 2 hours for Wins and Penguins playoffs when Leafs weren't making it and when they do many people are priced out. A lot more people drove up to Ottawa for Conference Final game couple years back than Leafs fans might care to acknowledge for example.

 

[93LEAFS]

I'm definetly looking at this from the bottom 10 NHL teams perspective where the canadian dollar is 90 cents or above. A London team could charge half the ticket price of the Leafs and that alone generating interest.

I don't see how Kitchener would be blacked out for London games. They'd show both like in the GTA with the Sens. TSN has 5 feeds for a reason and that's ever dwindling cable.

Maybe I'm looking forward a bit much but VPNs allow people to watch any team they want. Blackouts are going to be history for most people soon enough.

Now lack of corporate interest has been brought up numerous times. Here's a link to growing London based businesses:
London, Ont.'s Fastest-Growing Companies: 2017 PROFIT 500



In a discussion I believe one is allowed to make a quip or two. I don't expect the average hockey fan to know the ins and outs of London, Ont. That's all.

If we're comparing MLSE revenue to a London franchise that's simply not the end all be all. There's only so many seats at the ACC/Scotiabank. And 1-2hrs of driving for people like myself is nothing when price differential is justified. A lot of people were willing to drive more than 2 hours for Wins and Penguins playoffs when Leafs weren't making it and when they do many people are priced out. A lot more people drove up to Ottawa for Conference Final game couple years back than Leafs fans might care to acknowledge for example.

Ottawa is blacked out in the GTA, and only can air local games as for west as Belleville. Leafs will block you out of the GTA, and you have almost no local television area to speak of. Kitchener would likely stay part of the existing territory it is a part of. London makes no sense for an NHL team because it is a tiny market, with a tiny television footprint.

The price difference between the Knights and an NHL franchise is astronomical. The last time the Knights tickets have been publically listed, the most expensive seats in the arena were $31 per game (this was 12-13, Knights don't have them publically anywhere else).

London has nowhere near the corporate support of any market that currently is in the NHL. Yes, you can get people to drive one or two hours when there is a price break. But, you likely aren't getting people to do that very often. The area simply doesn't have the population to sell a viable amount of season seats or corporate boxes, at NHL prices.

You asked if London would be even close. They wouldn't. They aren't even the most desirable CHL market, which would be Portland.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

it's all about the potential owner.

unless you name someone willing to drop the coin to make it a reality in the first place.

 

[Barclay Donaldson]

I'm definetly looking at this from the bottom 10 NHL teams perspective where the canadian dollar is 90 cents or above. A London team could charge half the ticket price of the Leafs and that alone generating interest.

I don't see how Kitchener would be blacked out for London games. They'd show both like in the GTA with the Sens. TSN has 5 feeds for a reason and that's ever dwindling cable.

Maybe I'm looking forward a bit much but VPNs allow people to watch any team they want. Blackouts are going to be history for most people soon enough.

Now lack of corporate interest has been brought up numerous times. Here's a link to growing London based businesses:
London, Ont.'s Fastest-Growing Companies: 2017 PROFIT 500

Why Tech Companies are Moving to London Ontario - Perspective

If the number is 600 million. Then no. But when I see financials for the Panthers or Hurricanes let alone "others" I'm not seeing London having a problem supporting a team.



In a discussion I believe one is allowed to make a quip or two. I don't expect the average hockey fan to know the ins and outs of London, Ont. That's all.

If we're comparing MLSE revenue to a London franchise that's simply not the end all be all. There's only so many seats at the ACC/Scotiabank. And 1-2hrs of driving for people like myself is nothing when price differential is justified. A lot of people were willing to drive more than 2 hours for Wins and Penguins playoffs when Leafs weren't making it and when they do many people are priced out. A lot more people drove up to Ottawa for Conference Final game couple years back than Leafs fans might care to acknowledge for example.

Metro area is too small. They’re not going to draw from any other big metro areas. Their total population draw isn’t much bigger than Halifax. And it’s starting to get big businesses. So is Oklahoma City, and they still have a bigger base. It’s all about the huge companies that buy the corporate boxes.

The minimum value of all NHL teams is now $650 million. See recent expansion fees and the sale of the Canes to Dundon. Daly, and to a lesser extent Bettman, aren’t allowing sales for anything less.

You’re not going to get thousands of people flocking to London NHL games from the GTA. That was one of the claims Ottawa had and they are a few hours from Montreal and Toronto. That’s been proved to be faulty logic. Throw that out.

The price differential won’t be much. Knights tickets are a fraction of a NHL teams. If there is that difference like you said, then they’re burning money. Especially with no TV market, corporate base (or “growing corporate base”), or other NHL revenue streams.

 

[alko]

a few studies were done to determine how many teams Canada would reasonably support on top of the 6 teams at the time.

Any link?

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

532k is not a big enough Metro pop to sustain an NHL team.

Buffalo, considered the smallest market in the league, has a Metro pop of 1.1 million. Double that of London

AHL market Providence has a Metro pop of 1.6 million. 3x the size of London

 

[Jets4Life]

London would probably be in the top 10 markets to receive an NHL team...barely, if they had a 17,000 NHL-ready arena. However, there are too many markets that the NHL would consider ahead of London, including:

1)Houston
2)Second team in the GTA
3)Quebec
4)Kansas City
5)Hamilton
6)Portland
7)Atlanta
8)Austin, Texas

Never say never, but the chance of London acquiring an NHL team is very remote, unless the NHL were to grant two new teams to Southern Ontario, which is highly unlikely.

 

[cheswick]

Am I the only one confused by the use of the word stadium instead of arena?