If a true Cinderalla team won the cup - would they become a cup favorite the next year, or still a bubble playoff team?

[bobholly39]

I thought this would be an interesting discussion.

First - I was thinking about it, has a cinderalla team ever won a cup? It seems majority of cinderalla runs end in finals loss at most (Habs 21, Panthers 96, Flyers 2010, Buffalo in 99, Washington in 98, etc). Maybe prior to that there are examples, but in recent decades I can't think of a single team.

Which leads me to the poll question. In general - whenever a team wins the Stanley Cup - they enter the following season as a strong Stanley Cup favorite. Often #1 favorite, but at least top ~3-5 usually. So when any of Florida, Colorada, Vegas or Tampa Bay won in recent years - the following season they each entered as a cup favorite (top 1 in some cases, but top ~3-5 minimum).

Flipside is - in general, when a playoff bubble team barely qualfies for playoffs, you expect them to be in a similar position the next season - on the bubble, fighting for a playoff spot, with a ~50/50 odds of making it. So for this year specifically, this probably includes Ottawa, Montreal, Wild and maybe Blues.

So what if one of those teams shocked the world and won the Stanley Cup this season - does it automatically make them a stanley cup favorite going into next year (a top ~5 favorite), or do they remain a bubble playoff team barely expected to qualify for playoffs?

 

[centipede2233]

The last Cinderella team was stlouis. They won the cup in 2018/19 season. They finished 1st in their division the next year but got ousted by the Canucks in rd 1 (after the playin).

I’d see this play out for most Cinderella teams. Win a cup, finish as a contender the next season only to lose in the first rd.

 

[Coffee]

I don’t think so

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

Not sure how a 'Cup winner becomes a Cinderella team by finishing as a bubble team?

A true Cinderella team is similar to the Leafs. Good enough to make the playoffs...where then continously get exposed as frauds and pretenders.

 

[Toby91ca]

The actual answer isn’t there, which is “it depends”. A very strong team that wins the cup isn’t necessarily the favourite for the following season either

 

[acor]

The last Cinderella team was stlouis. They won the cup in 2018/19 season. They finished 1st in their division the next year but got ousted by the Canucks in rd 1 (after the playin).

I’d see this play out for most Cinderella teams. Win a cup, finish as a contender the next season only to lose in the first rd.

They weren't really a cinderella.

If someone before this season said Blues will win, it wouldn't be most surprising answer (yes, I know they missed playoffs season before, but they were one of most estabilished teams in the West, that actually got stronger).

Flyers'10 also weren't any cinderella, it was same team that was in ECF 2 years before (and probably would went further in playoffs year before, had they not run into eventual champion in R1)+ Pronger.

These teams just had crappy regular season, though Blues got hot in second half.

ONLY cinderella, out of the blue champion I remember was Carolina'06. And they made playoffs just once in a decade following their SCF run.

 

[JKG33]

I'm not sure what shocks me more.. that this is even a question or the lopsided wrong result. You're telling me a team that goes through a 4 round grind and comes out on top isn't automatically a cup favourite the next year? What else do they have to do to become a favourite? Unless they have an offseason like say Columbus did where they lost Bob, Panarin, and Duchene (not saying they were a contender, just that was the worst loss of players in an offseason I could think of) I'm not sure how else this cinderella team could not be a contender.

Hell, I'd even go as far as saying a SCFinalist should be a contender the next year as well. The only real borderline case I can think of recently is Edmonton last year where they had a monumentally easy road to the SCF and followed it up with a shit offseason.

 

[bobholly39]

Not sure how a 'Cup winner becomes a Cinderella team by finishing as a bubble team?

A true Cinderella team is similar to the Leafs. Good enough to make the playoffs...where then continously get exposed as frauds and pretenders.

I feel as though you're reading the question wrong?

Leafs aren't a cinderella team. They're division winners, and expected to do well (and yes I know, very bad playoff record). A Cinderella team would be the Habs in these 2025 playoffs. Wildcard, nobody expected them to qualify yet they made the playoffs as wildcard 2.

Do you think Habs have a shot at even beating Washington? Most in the hockey world think they have no shot - a true underdog. And after they're eliminated in round 1, do you consider them a strong cup contender for next year? Logic again says no. They're a bubble playoff team, who might qualify might not, but will be battling all year.

Ok - same scenario - but now Habs beat Washington, and go all the way and win the cup.

Are the Habs now a cup favorite (~top 5) for next year? Or are they a team you expect to battling for playoffs, and very possibly miss? The answer can't be both - because you can't be a top 5 cup favorite if you're not expected to make playoffs.

The actual answer isn’t there, which is “it depends”. A very strong team that wins the cup isn’t necessarily the favourite for the following season either

Yes - obviously it depends, circumstances are different for each team. And that's why I said a ~top 5 favorite next year, as opposed to #1 favorite. I can't think of many scenarios (or any?) where a cup winning team in recent years wasn't minimum a top 5 favorite for next year.

I'm not sure what shocks me more.. that this is even a question or the lopsided wrong result. You're telling me a team that goes through a 4 round grind and comes out on top isn't automatically a cup favourite the next year? What else do they have to do to become a favourite? Unless they have an offseason like say Columbus did where they lost Bob, Panarin, and Duchene (not saying they were a contender, just that was the worst loss of players in an offseason I could think of) I'm not sure how else this cinderella team could not be a contender.

Hell, I'd even go as far as saying a SCFinalist should be a contender the next year as well. The only real borderline case I can think of recently is Edmonton last year where they had a monumentally easy road to the SCF and followed it up with a shit offseason.

Montreal is a better example than Edmonton. They were a finalist in 2021, and lost Price and Weber and Danault in the off-season, and finished last. Edmonton still have McDrai.

And Montreal is probably the best example of a Cinderella team in these 2025 playoffs as well. Nobody expected them to even qualify, and majority see them as a huge underdog vs Washington. And so I assume - majority of fans expect them to miss playoffs next year, or at most be in the race for a wildcard again and maybe battle their way in again. Meaning - nowhere near a top 5 contender. More like top ~20. Which I agree with, and I say this as a Habs fan.

Now - what if Habs surprise, and win the cup. Aren't they still a top ~20th favorite for next year? Or does it bump them to top ~5? Does the winning experience of winning the cup now make them a shoe-in to make playoffs next year, and give them a great shot at winning again (~top 5).

I think it's a really interesting question to consider.

 

[JKG33]

Montreal is a better example than Edmonton. They were a finalist in 2021, and lost Price and Weber and Danault in the off-season, and finished last. Edmonton still have McDrai.

And Montreal is probably the best example of a Cinderella team in these 2025 playoffs as well. Nobody expected them to even qualify, and majority see them as a huge underdog vs Washington. And so I assume - majority of fans expect them to miss playoffs next year, or at most be in the race for a wildcard again and maybe battle their way in again. Meaning - nowhere near a top 5 contender. More like top ~20. Which I agree with, and I say this as a Habs fan.

Now - what if Habs surprise, and win the cup. Aren't they still a top ~20th favorite for next year? Or does it bump them to top ~5? Does the winning experience of winning the cup now make them a shoe-in to make playoffs next year, and give them a great shot at winning again (~top 5).

I think it's a really interesting question to consider.

Yea, I didn't think of the Habs during the covid cup 2.0. Tbh I find it hard not to put an asterisk on those two playoffs (not at all to de-legitimize what Tampa did) but any team that has the best goalie in the world and a top 5 d-man and then loses them that offseason.. yea they'd drop off from contender status the next year for sure.

If a team like this years Habs wins the cup, with a very young roster and question marks in net, that would ABSOLUTELY legitimize them as a cup favourite for next year too. That would mean their players stepped up and deserve to be taken seriously.

 

[ijuka]

These two options don't cover all possibilities, so it's impossible to vote in this poll.

 

[MXD]

It think the answers varies too much on the individual team to make a blanket statement.

 

[Machinehead]

It depends on the team.

The 2023 Panthers and the 2012 Kings had the roster and the underlying numbers to indicate that those years were breakouts.

The 2021 Habs, for example, were just ass and the 2019 Blues ended up being pretty bad the next couple of years.

In most cases, teams that win the Cup end up being good, and there's a lot more cases of teams that made a run to the Finals and lost being bad.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

I feel as though you're reading the question wrong?

Leafs aren't a cinderella team. They're division winners, and expected to do well (and yes I know, very bad playoff record). A Cinderella team would be the Habs in these 2025 playoffs. Wildcard, nobody expected them to qualify yet they made the playoffs as wildcard 2.

Do you think Habs have a shot at even beating Washington? Most in the hockey world think they have no shot - a true underdog. And after they're eliminated in round 1, do you consider them a strong cup contender for next year? Logic again says no. They're a bubble playoff team, who might qualify might not, but will be battling all year.

Ok - same scenario - but now Habs beat Washington, and go all the way and win the cup.

Are the Habs now a cup favorite (~top 5) for next year? Or are they a team you expect to battling for playoffs, and very possibly miss? The answer can't be both - because you can't be a top 5 cup favorite if you're not expected to make playoffs.

I disagree.

Regular season success doe not equate with playoff success. Yes, the best teams are often the best teams in both the regular season and playoffs...but they succeed in the playoffs because they are the best teams overall...not the best regular season teams.

Sure, the Leafs won the Atlantic in a weak season. Of the four current division winners, the Leafs have the weakest record. Their 108 point season would have been good enough for third place in the Atlantic least season...a typically stronger season.

The Leafs are the quintessential Cinderella team. Like Cinderella at the ball...the Leafs are artificial and quickly exposed. Like Cinderella reverting back to a scullery maid, the Leafs revert to the golf course. The Leafs have a bad record in the playoffs because, at their institutional core, they are frauds and pretenders. Soft, weak, fragile and heartless.

The Habs...the Habs are a proven playoff performers. Four series wins in two recent appearances. If they manage to win the 'Cup this year that'll just cement their worthiness even more. That fact they may be a bubble team doesn’t change anything. Now, should they miss the playoffs, obviously it's impossible to contend in the playoffs if you're not in it.

 

[trick9]

If they don't lose any key players, then sure, they should be top-5 favorites next season.

I changed my vote here. Thought it meant the top-1 favorite but then later realised you mentioned top-5 there. I have hard time picking top-5 before a new season without including the reigning Cup winners, whoever they are. Those rankings could change as early as first half of the new season though if that team struggles. But before the season? No. This isn't a game played on paper. Any Cup winner needs good offense, good defense, good goaltending and good coaching. Even Cinderella teams need that to win and if they got it, i won't drop them that much during the off-season where no games are played.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I woudln't even necessarily consider the 2012 Kings a CInderella team but the narrative here for the next two years was they were just lucky frauds and a bubble team and we were STILL having to debate that reputation as recently as 3 games into the 2014 run.

They should be favorites, but old narratives die hard.

 

[robertmac43]

TBH I think the NHL's parity makes for less intriguing cinderella stories. I'm not saying it doesn't happen but with the randomness of the sport and the general balance that comes with the cap structure its rare for a 'true cinderella' team to go all the way.

Just looking at other sports - the Cinderella stories are often more obvious, just off the top of my head we have:

• Leicester City - 2016 Premier League
• 2007 Giants
• 2011 Cardinals
• Plenty from March madness
• 2004 Greece Euro win

To me, hockey is the place where if you get to the dance, you can win more than any other sport.

 

[Mirka the Turka]

Remember Florida was a Cinderella team and then won the cup the following year

 

[SharksFan1992]

I thought this would be an interesting discussion.

First - I was thinking about it, has a cinderalla team ever won a cup? It seems majority of cinderalla runs end in finals loss at most (Habs 21, Panthers 96, Flyers 2010, Buffalo in 99, Washington in 98, etc). Maybe prior to that there are examples, but in recent decades I can't think of a single team.

Which leads me to the poll question. In general - whenever a team wins the Stanley Cup - they enter the following season as a strong Stanley Cup favorite. Often #1 favorite, but at least top ~3-5 usually. So when any of Florida, Colorada, Vegas or Tampa Bay won in recent years - the following season they each entered as a cup favorite (top 1 in some cases, but top ~3-5 minimum).

Flipside is - in general, when a playoff bubble team barely qualfies for playoffs, you expect them to be in a similar position the next season - on the bubble, fighting for a playoff spot, with a ~50/50 odds of making it. So for this year specifically, this probably includes Ottawa, Montreal, Wild and maybe Blues.

So what if one of those teams shocked the world and won the Stanley Cup this season - does it automatically make them a stanley cup favorite going into next year (a top ~5 favorite), or do they remain a bubble playoff team barely expected to qualify for playoffs?

The 2012 Kings were an 8th seed. That qualifies as a Cindarella run winning a Cup.

 

[SharksFan1992]

The only example I can think of is the 2012 Kings who won the Cup as an 8th seed. It doesn't get more Cindarella than that. The following lockout-shortened season they were considered Cup favorites.

Cindarella runs usually don't succeed: 99 Buffalo, 2003 Ducks & Wild, 2004 Flames, 2010 Habs, 2017 Sens, 2021 Habs, 2023 Panthers. Most didn't make the playoffs the following season, so for these cases I assume they don't maintain their form into the next season. The Panthers were the only one from the list to get back to the Final and win the following season.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

The 2010 Flyers were stacked at every position except goalie. They just brutally underperformed during the regular season