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Ideas for Future Studies

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Comparing Craig Anderson's 2012-2013 season versus his 2013-2014 season in terms of shot quality. Last year he put up historical numbers and this year hes below average. Did he just lose his ability to play goal or are the senators playing worse team defense and allowing better opportunities.
 
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Reworking the "Game Winning Goal" stat..

I would love to see the Game Winning Goal stat amended and redefined... and then see what kind of historical difference it makes in a study.

How i would amend the definition of a GWG:
The goal that gives the team the lead which it doesn't relinquish.

i.e.
Team A beats B : 3-2
Presently the 3rd goal by Team A is the GWG.

Redefined scenarios:
Team A beats B : 3-2
scenario 1 - A goes up 3-0, B scores next 2... 1st goal is the GWG.
scenario 2 - Score tied by B at 1-1, A scores 2 to make it 3-1, B scores... 2nd goal is GWG.
scenario 3 - Score tied by B at 2-2... 3rd goal scored is the GWG.


Why change it:
I believe it's an improvement by adding a little more significance to the stat.

Con... it may still be flawed in the extreme example:
A beats B 4-3.
A scores 2: 2-0
B: 2-1
A: 3-1
B: 3-2
A: 4-2
B: 4-3
Final score 4-3... GWG : the 1st goal.

But this Con would be far more rare than the present late meaningless goal scenario that occurs which shifts the reward of the stat.


For the people who conduct these types of studies, the historical boxscores seem readily available...
I once did a handful of teams a yr or two ago... but obviously not a league wide or multiple season en devour.


======

Edit:

I found where i did a few teams for the 11-12 season:
In this thread: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1263785&highlight=game+winning+goals

I did: Van, CBJ, Ana, Bos, TB, and Pit in that thread.
TO ME it seemed like it reflected a potentially significant difference... but i was met with less than open minds.
 
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Vesa Awesaka said:
Comparing Craig Anderson's 2012-2013 season versus his 2013-2014 season in terms of shot quality. Last year he put up historical numbers and this year hes below average. Did he just lose his ability to play goal or are the senators playing worse team defense and allowing better opportunities.
Click to expand...

Ha, that's exactly why I was wondering about getting a good metric for rebounds.
Last season he was acting like black hole when any puck came near him - especially on the PK - and that allowed the team to hit the reset button when facing a lot of pressure.
 
I'd like to try and track point shots

How many..... A)Result in a SOG, B)Generate an immediate rebound chance/goal and C)how many are blocked or just completely miss the net. How effective are they in creating offense vs other methods, the league is becoming very point shot oriented, or so it seems
 
ChibiPooky said:
If anybody's done a study on +/- WOWY, I'd be interested to see it.
Click to expand...

I haven't seen a full study done, but I do know that stats.hockeyanalysis.com has all of the data you should need.

For example here's Getzlaf's WOWY stats this year at 5v5: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=4&withagainst=true&season=2013-14&sit=5v5

Although they don't include total goals against, they do include GA/20 and total ice time so it would be trivial math to get it.
 
Apologies if this has been covered before...

I've seen a chart that tracked offensive production for an individual player by age (maybe quanthockey had it? I forget), however, has there been any research done in a similar mold based on NHL games played and prior professional games (AHL, SHL, SM-Liiga, KHL, etc.) played?
 
Coaching plans before each game-that is the ultimate study.I guess its impossible but that would be interesting
 
I think tracking "assists" for shots on goal would be a helpful statistic to have tracked. You would be able to see who sets up and helps create the most offensive chances, regardless of whether or not those chances end up in the net or not.

Maybe that's been covered in here before, if so, my apologies.
 
I need to look into it further, but I bet there is a way to quantify the quality of shots, and how it correlated to current possession states.
 
Hi all.

Is there a list that shows cost per minute of time played? Sort of like cost of a condo per square foot? Cost per minute of time played.

Cost per minute of Time on ice as a penalty killer etc.

thanks
 
DL44 said:
I would love to see the Game Winning Goal stat amended and redefined... and then see what kind of historical difference it makes in a study.

How i would amend the definition of a GWG:
The goal that gives the team the lead which it doesn't relinquish.

i.e.
Team A beats B : 3-2
Presently the 3rd goal by Team A is the GWG.

Redefined scenarios:
Team A beats B : 3-2
scenario 1 - A goes up 3-0, B scores next 2... 1st goal is the GWG.
scenario 2 - Score tied by B at 1-1, A scores 2 to make it 3-1, B scores... 2nd goal is GWG.
scenario 3 - Score tied by B at 2-2... 3rd goal scored is the GWG.


Why change it:
I believe it's an improvement by adding a little more significance to the stat.

Con... it may still be flawed in the extreme example:
A beats B 4-3.
A scores 2: 2-0
B: 2-1
A: 3-1
B: 3-2
A: 4-2
B: 4-3
Final score 4-3... GWG : the 1st goal.

But this Con would be far more rare than the present late meaningless goal scenario that occurs which shifts the reward of the stat.


For the people who conduct these types of studies, the historical boxscores seem readily available...
I once did a handful of teams a yr or two ago... but obviously not a league wide or multiple season en devour.


======

Edit:

I found where i did a few teams for the 11-12 season:
In this thread: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1263785&highlight=game+winning+goals

I did: Van, CBJ, Ana, Bos, TB, and Pit in that thread.
TO ME it seemed like it reflected a potentially significant difference... but i was met with less than open minds.
Click to expand...

The GWG stats is to show which player is clutch, so I think it should be Goals to take lead when tied
 
I'd like to possibly see the correlation between the CF% or FF% a team puts up and the percentage in which they hold the zone offensively and/or get pucks out defensively. Tough to track, since the latter two would have to be done manually(I believe), but it'd be interesting to know how strongly those go hand in hand.
 
I'd like to do a study on Patrick Kane. As a die hard hawks fan, I hate the guy. I would like to find his ice time and puck possessiontime plus his shots on goal and goal count and compare that tothe goals he's been on the ice for. I want to see if he produces more than wastes time on the ice.
 
Do defensemen have the ability to block good scoring lanes from opponents? I wonder if having a particular defenseman on the ice has a positive impact on their goaltenders SV% (one would assume that blocking a good scoring lane would mean a goalie would face easier to save shots). That is, say, "Varlamov's SV% was .927 last year, but went up to .945 when Barrie was on the ice" (the numbers are made up in that particular case, but you get the picture).
 
Blue Dragon said:
Do defensemen have the ability to block good scoring lanes from opponents? I wonder if having a particular defenseman on the ice has a positive impact on their goaltenders SV% (one would assume that blocking a good scoring lane would mean a goalie would face easier to save shots). That is, say, "Varlamov's SV% was .927 last year, but went up to .945 when Barrie was on the ice" (the numbers are made up in that particular case, but you get the picture).
Click to expand...

Multiple studies have focused on whether defensemen can impact on-ice sv%. The answer is not really.
http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/7/4/4487304/save-percentage-variability-regression-defense
http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/07...-no-sustainable-control-over-save-percentage/
 
Mystlyfe said:
Multiple studies have focused on whether defensemen can impact on-ice sv%. The answer is not really.
http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/7/4/4487304/save-percentage-variability-regression-defense
http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/07...-no-sustainable-control-over-save-percentage/
Click to expand...

I've seen those before and always wanted to see a similar analysis on the team level (maybe it has already been done?).

For example, one could take the two-season Sv% of a goalie on team X, and then compare that to the two-season Sv% of that same goalie on team Y. Of course we would be restricted to goalies who were traded and had two seasons on each team. But this would tell us if teams have an effect on Sv%, which I believe to be true but don't have any data to support.
 
charlie1 said:
I've seen those before and always wanted to see a similar analysis on the team level (maybe it has already been done?).

For example, one could take the two-season Sv% of a goalie on team X, and then compare that to the two-season Sv% of that same goalie on team Y. Of course we would be restricted to goalies who were traded and had two seasons on each team. But this would tell us if teams have an effect on Sv%, which I believe to be true but don't have any data to support.
Click to expand...

The problem with that would be sample size. So few goalies go from playing significant minutes for one team to playing significant minutes with another team in a consistent part of their career.
 
Very simple comparing teamates on great team-who was the best and by how much
 
hatterson said:
The problem with that would be sample size. So few goalies go from playing significant minutes for one team to playing significant minutes with another team in a consistent part of their career.
Click to expand...

Yeah and I've heard that before, but even if we got, say, 30 goalies together it would be worth doing IMO (and I think we can get significantly more).

Just this year alone I can think of three goalies off the top of my head that we could do it for: Miller, Halak, Hiller. All played two years at their previous team and will likely be starters for the next two years. I'm sure I'm missing some from this year too.

And it could be done using goalies from all eras. We know Sv% has steadily increased over the years, but that doesn't really matter in this analysis since we're just comparing goalies to themselves over a span of 4 years total. So we have a lot of data to draw from.

Edit: Add Luongo.
 
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charlie1 said:
Just this year alone I can think of three goalies off the top of my head that we could do it for: Miller, Halak, Hiller. All played two years at their previous team and will likely be starters for the next two years. I'm sure I'm missing some from this year too.
Click to expand...

But Miller is the only one of the three that was a consistent starter over the last two years. Hiller has 75 starts over the last 2 years combined. Halak only has 65 and 12 of those were with the Caps.

Even Miller only has 79 starts for the Sabres over the last 2 years and 19 for the Blues, and he's also at the point of his career where goalies usually start to fade a bit.

Granted all three of those numbers are lower because of the shortened season, but it's still rare for a goalie to start 2/3 of the games (~55 in a normal season) for one team and then 2/3 of the games for another team.

I think a better way to look at it is the way the shot quality project at sportsnet is. Try and figure out the quality of chances teams give up, ignoring whose in goal, and see if teams can maintain higher or lower quality on a consistent basis.
 
hatterson said:
But Miller is the only one of the three that was a consistent starter over the last two years. Hiller has 75 starts over the last 2 years combined. Halak only has 65 and 12 of those were with the Caps.

Even Miller only has 79 starts for the Sabres over the last 2 years and 19 for the Blues, and he's also at the point of his career where goalies usually start to fade a bit.

Granted all three of those numbers are lower because of the shortened season, but it's still rare for a goalie to start 2/3 of the games (~55 in a normal season) for one team and then 2/3 of the games for another team.
Click to expand...

Well then the question is how many games is enough to accurately judge a goalies Sv%? I haven't seen anyone look at that, but I imagine it is in the 50 - 100 game range. I'd still be interested to see how many goalies played 50 - 100 games over two years with one team, and then another 50 - 100 in the following two years with a different team. The 2012-2013 season would have to be projected out to 82 games.


hatterson said:
I think a better way to look at it is the way the shot quality project at sportsnet is. Try and figure out the quality of chances teams give up, ignoring whose in goal, and see if teams can maintain higher or lower quality on a consistent basis.
Click to expand...

Good point, and I agree that this is a better way to look at it. I'd like to see both though, personally.
 
What with zone entries becoming more of a focus, I'd like to see if there's anything meaningful in the passes that lead directly to controlled zone entries.
 
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